Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Percent confidence in management

  • Please log in to reply
50 replies to this topic

#21 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 15,461 posts

Posted 23 May 2013 - 11:19 PM

Yup, the same guy...

#22 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 11,090 posts

Posted 23 May 2013 - 11:21 PM

Yup, the same guy...


Before I specifically critique anyone from the front office, I'd like to hear how you support the quality of a job that a guy like Antony has done.

#23 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 23,688 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 07:21 AM

My confidence in:

Terry Ryan - 99%
Rob Antony - 99%
Mike Radcliff - 99%
Brad Steil - 99%

Ron Gardenhire - 89% (most of this isn't up to him)



Here are Ryan's major deicsions this last year:

Sign Corriea to a two year deal
Sign Pelfrey
Refuse to call up Gibson
Trade for Vance Worely and Trevor May
Trade for Alex Meyer
Not sign any position players
Trade two starting OFers, with no one ready to take their place
Call up Hicks

And you have 99% confidence? I know you know the guy, but you can't see any reason to have doubt in him?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#24 jay

jay

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,504 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 07:53 AM

The Twins could still win 88 games with incompetent leadership. They've done it before under Bill Smith no less.


Yes. By 2016, I'm confident our homegrown talent base will be more than capable of overcoming Gardy's "old-school" ways and TR's debatable free agent acquisitions.

On the subject of the post, I tend to have more confidence in TR than Gardy for some reason.

#25 RIP BYTO

RIP BYTO

    Member

  • Members
  • 44 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 08:48 AM

I consider 88 wins a successful season. It may or may not get you a division championship depending on the year. It may or may not get you into the playoffs. It got the Twins into the playoffs in '87 and from their we all know the outcome. What percent confident are you in the following management to do their part to get the Twins to 88 wins by the end of the 2016 season?

Ryan?
Gardenhire?
Anderson?

I'd put my current confidence levels in those people at:

Ryan 50%
Gardenhire 20%
Anderson 10%

At the end of last season I would've put those confidence levels at:

Ryan 80%
Gardenhire 40%
Anderson 30%

I've lost alot of confidence over the off-season and the first six weeks of the season.


I am 100% confident that 100% of the three guys you mention will not be with the Twins at the end of the 2016 season.

#26 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,511 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 24 May 2013 - 09:29 AM

So your confident Gardy and Anderson won't hurt and will most likely help our pitching prospects such as Gibson, Meyer, and May? I wish I had that confidence. I'm much more confident in our minor league hitters fulfilling their promise, especially with Bruno as the batting coach.


This team won a lot of games last decade, and in my opinion, that was in spite of the coaching staff, not because of it. I'm not a Gardy supporter (though up until recently I've been a bigger fan of Anderson). I don't think Gardy is the right person for the job going forward either... but in answer to this question, regardless of who is managing, I think the 2016 team will have no problems winning 88 games. Your concern regarding Gardenhire/Anderson is quite valid.

#27 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,511 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 24 May 2013 - 09:35 AM

Here are Ryan's major deicsions this last year:

Sign Corriea to a two year deal
Sign Pelfrey
Refuse to call up Gibson
Trade for Vance Worely and Trevor May
Trade for Alex Meyer
Not sign any position players
Trade two starting OFers, with no one ready to take their place
Call up Hicks

And you have 99% confidence? I know you know the guy, but you can't see any reason to have doubt in him?


Truth be told, these moves all scream 2015 and beyond. You might not like Ryan, but he's clearly looking out longer term. In terms of confidence, I have far more confidence in the front office than I do the field staff. You and I may not like the decision, but regardless of what the PR folks spun it as, this team is clearly taking a rebuilding approach. Why I have confidence in the front office is that they have done a great job restocking the farm system, and in the case of Ryan, he has done this before with success. The concerns I have is how he's going to augment this team come the latter half of this decade. If there's a big hole in the middle infield or on the mound, how does Ryan fill it? Another KC? If so, then that's where my confidence is gone.

#28 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 23,688 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 09:41 AM

Here are the picks after Berrios last year:

Bard, Melotakis, Chargois....and you are confident in the FO ability to draft players? May has all the problems he had last year, when experts said he was not a starter anymore. Worley has been awful. So, Meyer was maybe a good trade. And Buxton was a good pick, and maybe Berrios was a good pick (there are still experts on line saying his stuff is not as great as it appears). So what is so much better about the future than before last year? If it is Buxton, well, they had the 2nd pick in the draft. Any of hte guys taken there or a few picks later look great.....so that's not like some genius move, imo.

So, what, exactly, makes you feel they are doing a great job rebulding the system this last year?

Meyer - plus
Buxton - plus, but any of the picks right after him would be plusses
May - big question mark
Berrios - very mixed opinions on line
Next three picks - not good, or hurt (like they were in college)
Worley - awful so far

So, what did the FO really do that makes you so confident about the future also?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#29 silverslugger

silverslugger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 118 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 10:21 AM

My confidence in:

Terry Ryan - 99%
Rob Antony - 99%
Mike Radcliff - 99%
Brad Steil - 99%

Ron Gardenhire - 89% (most of this isn't up to him)


Seth,

I appreciate your insight and your certainly closer and more informed when it comes to management than most on this site. I'd like to have confidence levels that high, but it's becoming more and more difficult for me over time. Name me the last starting pitcher developed by this organization who has had a sustained run of success for the Twins? I have very little confidence in this organizations ability to develop pitching at this point.

#30 silverslugger

silverslugger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 118 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 10:24 AM

This team won a lot of games last decade, and in my opinion, that was in spite of the coaching staff, not because of it. I'm not a Gardy supporter (though up until recently I've been a bigger fan of Anderson). I don't think Gardy is the right person for the job going forward either... but in answer to this question, regardless of who is managing, I think the 2016 team will have no problems winning 88 games. Your concern regarding Gardenhire/Anderson is quite valid.


I like your confidence in the 2016 team, but wonder if it isn't a bit misguided. Alot of decisions will have to be made between now and then to fill out a successful 25 man roster. Also, the reality is, most teams rely on more like 3--35 players to get through a season. I'm not certain I see this organization making the right decisions to round out the roster over the next 4 years.

#31 Top Gun

Top Gun

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,253 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 11:05 AM

I would go 10- 70- 20.

#32 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 11,511 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:01 PM

I like your confidence in the 2016 team, but wonder if it isn't a bit misguided. Alot of decisions will have to be made between now and then to fill out a successful 25 man roster. Also, the reality is, most teams rely on more like 3--35 players to get through a season. I'm not certain I see this organization making the right decisions to round out the roster over the next 4 years.


As I said previously the rounding out is what concerns me, but the 2016 team has a lot of potential to have stars/above average guys in most postions, with most having some ML experience to go with it.

C - Mauer/Pinto
1B - Mauer/?????
2B- Rosario
SS- ???
3B - Sano
LF - Hicks
CF - Buxton
RF - Arcia
SP - Meyer
SP - Stewart/Appel/Gray
SP - Gibson

My point is that there's pretty good reason to think we will have above average production from all of those spots and star level production from some of them, with the biggest potential drawback being injury (especially to the pitchers). But if these guys are healthy, and their development continues to progress as it has, then plugging average or even worse production into those other spots will still amount to a winning team.

And that assumes that guys like Parmalee/Plouffe/May/Benson/Walker/Vargas/Santana/Berios/Darnell/Banxendale don't develop into something that can contribute as well. All of those guys have good reason for people to be skeptical, but they could still easily pan out into something useful.

#33 James

James

    Sideburns Specialist

  • Members
  • 2,382 posts
  • LocationThe dive bars of NE Minneapolis

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:29 PM

Here are the picks after Berrios last year:

Bard, Melotakis, Chargois....and you are confident in the FO ability to draft players? May has all the problems he had last year, when experts said he was not a starter anymore. Worley has been awful. So, Meyer was maybe a good trade. And Buxton was a good pick, and maybe Berrios was a good pick (there are still experts on line saying his stuff is not as great as it appears). So what is so much better about the future than before last year? If it is Buxton, well, they had the 2nd pick in the draft. Any of hte guys taken there or a few picks later look great.....so that's not like some genius move, imo.

So, what, exactly, makes you feel they are doing a great job rebulding the system this last year?

Meyer - plus
Buxton - plus, but any of the picks right after him would be plusses
May - big question mark
Berrios - very mixed opinions on line
Next three picks - not good, or hurt (like they were in college)
Worley - awful so far

So, what did the FO really do that makes you so confident about the future also?

That is a convenient place to stop to make you're point, but doesn't really represent what we've gotten out of the 2012 draft so far. The next three picks (starting with round 3): Adam Walker, Zach Jones and Tyler Duffy.

So, in actuality, of the first 8 picks of last years draft, 5 have started off the season well.

It's still too early to really know what we got from last year's draft, but I don't think it's as obviously bad as you're trying to make it out to be.

And you're also excluding the signing of international prospects Minier and Thorpe.

I'm not sure how well all of Ryan's rebuilding efforts will go, but I think he's adding a lot of talent.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#34 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:35 PM

talent is normally added in a draft...this is nothing new...it happens with every team every year.

It's also not news the GM has little to do with the draft.

#35 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 23,688 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:36 PM

We are just going to disagree on this one, I think. No biggie, at this point we are both doing projections that are years out......

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#36 PseudoSABR

PseudoSABR

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 3,819 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:37 PM

Golly, who knew 2013 would be a rebuilding year--I sure didn't.

#37 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 15,461 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:54 PM

The question wasn't about 2013. I said 73 wins all along would be optimistic, even for me. But I do like the direction. I do have confidence in Ryan. I don't know that Gardy's going to get a chance to keep going, and I have mixed thoughts on that. I don't really know what Anderson could do with what he's been given, though I've never thought he was as good as he was given credit.

The question about about 88 wins by 2016, and I'll choose to be optimistic on that one. I do think good things are happening in the system. I'm not naive enoguh to think that everyone will pan out, but I'll take my chances.

#38 James

James

    Sideburns Specialist

  • Members
  • 2,382 posts
  • LocationThe dive bars of NE Minneapolis

Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:58 PM

We are just going to disagree on this one, I think. No biggie, at this point we are both doing projections that are years out......

We are very much projecting.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#39 glunn

glunn

    Head Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,213 posts
  • LocationBeverly Hills, CA

Posted 24 May 2013 - 01:05 PM

Seth,

I appreciate your insight and your certainly closer and more informed when it comes to management than most on this site. I'd like to have confidence levels that high, but it's becoming more and more difficult for me over time. Name me the last starting pitcher developed by this organization who has had a sustained run of success for the Twins? I have very little confidence in this organizations ability to develop pitching at this point.


I have the same concern. I am not sure who is to blame, but I would love to hear Seth's take on this.

#40 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,576 posts

Posted 24 May 2013 - 02:57 PM

Those kind of confidence levels defy the results if nothing else.