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Percent confidence in management

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#31 Top Gun

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 11:05 AM

I would go 10- 70- 20.

#32 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:01 PM

I like your confidence in the 2016 team, but wonder if it isn't a bit misguided. Alot of decisions will have to be made between now and then to fill out a successful 25 man roster. Also, the reality is, most teams rely on more like 3--35 players to get through a season. I'm not certain I see this organization making the right decisions to round out the roster over the next 4 years.


As I said previously the rounding out is what concerns me, but the 2016 team has a lot of potential to have stars/above average guys in most postions, with most having some ML experience to go with it.

C - Mauer/Pinto
1B - Mauer/?????
2B- Rosario
SS- ???
3B - Sano
LF - Hicks
CF - Buxton
RF - Arcia
SP - Meyer
SP - Stewart/Appel/Gray
SP - Gibson

My point is that there's pretty good reason to think we will have above average production from all of those spots and star level production from some of them, with the biggest potential drawback being injury (especially to the pitchers). But if these guys are healthy, and their development continues to progress as it has, then plugging average or even worse production into those other spots will still amount to a winning team.

And that assumes that guys like Parmalee/Plouffe/May/Benson/Walker/Vargas/Santana/Berios/Darnell/Banxendale don't develop into something that can contribute as well. All of those guys have good reason for people to be skeptical, but they could still easily pan out into something useful.

#33 James

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:29 PM

Here are the picks after Berrios last year:

Bard, Melotakis, Chargois....and you are confident in the FO ability to draft players? May has all the problems he had last year, when experts said he was not a starter anymore. Worley has been awful. So, Meyer was maybe a good trade. And Buxton was a good pick, and maybe Berrios was a good pick (there are still experts on line saying his stuff is not as great as it appears). So what is so much better about the future than before last year? If it is Buxton, well, they had the 2nd pick in the draft. Any of hte guys taken there or a few picks later look great.....so that's not like some genius move, imo.

So, what, exactly, makes you feel they are doing a great job rebulding the system this last year?

Meyer - plus
Buxton - plus, but any of the picks right after him would be plusses
May - big question mark
Berrios - very mixed opinions on line
Next three picks - not good, or hurt (like they were in college)
Worley - awful so far

So, what did the FO really do that makes you so confident about the future also?

That is a convenient place to stop to make you're point, but doesn't really represent what we've gotten out of the 2012 draft so far. The next three picks (starting with round 3): Adam Walker, Zach Jones and Tyler Duffy.

So, in actuality, of the first 8 picks of last years draft, 5 have started off the season well.

It's still too early to really know what we got from last year's draft, but I don't think it's as obviously bad as you're trying to make it out to be.

And you're also excluding the signing of international prospects Minier and Thorpe.

I'm not sure how well all of Ryan's rebuilding efforts will go, but I think he's adding a lot of talent.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#34 ThePuck

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:35 PM

talent is normally added in a draft...this is nothing new...it happens with every team every year.

It's also not news the GM has little to do with the draft.

#35 mike wants wins

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:36 PM

We are just going to disagree on this one, I think. No biggie, at this point we are both doing projections that are years out......
Lighten up Francis....

#36 PseudoSABR

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:37 PM

Golly, who knew 2013 would be a rebuilding year--I sure didn't.

#37 Seth Stohs

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:54 PM

The question wasn't about 2013. I said 73 wins all along would be optimistic, even for me. But I do like the direction. I do have confidence in Ryan. I don't know that Gardy's going to get a chance to keep going, and I have mixed thoughts on that. I don't really know what Anderson could do with what he's been given, though I've never thought he was as good as he was given credit.

The question about about 88 wins by 2016, and I'll choose to be optimistic on that one. I do think good things are happening in the system. I'm not naive enoguh to think that everyone will pan out, but I'll take my chances.

#38 James

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 12:58 PM

We are just going to disagree on this one, I think. No biggie, at this point we are both doing projections that are years out......

We are very much projecting.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#39 glunn

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 01:05 PM

Seth,

I appreciate your insight and your certainly closer and more informed when it comes to management than most on this site. I'd like to have confidence levels that high, but it's becoming more and more difficult for me over time. Name me the last starting pitcher developed by this organization who has had a sustained run of success for the Twins? I have very little confidence in this organizations ability to develop pitching at this point.


I have the same concern. I am not sure who is to blame, but I would love to hear Seth's take on this.

#40 TheLeviathan

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 02:57 PM

Those kind of confidence levels defy the results if nothing else.

#41 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 07:09 PM

My confidence in:

Terry Ryan - 99%
Rob Antony - 99%
Mike Radcliff - 99%
Brad Steil - 99%

Ron Gardenhire - 89% (most of this isn't up to him)


I'd like to know how an organization almost completely run by guys you have complete confidence in finds themselves in this mess?

Let me guess, you are going to pin all the blame on Bill Smith, a guy hand picked by Ryan (whom you have 99% confidence in to make good decisions), and who was an admitted administrator who relied on his scouts and other FO members for input (all of whom you also have 99% confidence in).

I guess this organization is run by brilliant baseball people, and is only being held back by inept 1st base coaches, bullpen coaches, and AAA managers.

#42 jokin

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 07:30 PM

Those kind of confidence levels defy the results if nothing else.


I get how Seth's argument might go with a couple on his list (even though I disagree), but I still haven't heard back on how Rob Antony deserves a 99% confidence rating.

#43 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 07:35 PM

I get how Seth's argument might go with a couple on his list (even though I disagree), but I still haven't heard back on how Rob Antony deserves a 99% confidence rating.


At least I now know whose blog to avoid. With that level of homerism, he might as well just call it "Thoughts from Dick Bremer."
Sorry Seth, that's pretty harsh, but these confidence levels really do defy the results, and are not possibly objective.

#44 Riverbrian

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 08:15 PM

At least I now know whose blog to avoid. With that level of homerism, he might as well just call it "Thoughts from Dick Bremer."
Sorry Seth, that's pretty harsh, but these confidence levels really do defy the results, and are not possibly objective.


Absolutely Harsh... Question asked... Question answered!!! He answered!!! And you hang him.
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#45 gunnarthor

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 08:50 PM

I have pretty high confidence in our FO based on their successful track record. But I think, more importantly, the Pohlad's seem to have it too. They got rid of Ryan's interm label after last year. Ryan has continued to heap praise on Gardy and he hired him the first place so I suspect both will be here until/unless the Pohlads dictate otherwise.

#46 John Bonnes

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 09:43 PM

I'd like to know how an organization almost completely run by guys you have complete confidence in finds themselves in this mess.


The Twins were a championship caliber team from 2002-2010. I wonder, would one expect a successful run for a period of longer than nine years? How many other teams can I find with that long of a run of success?

There is a natural cycle that organizations face that is driven by the aging of thir players and is accelerated for non-rich teams by the financial cycle in the CBA. They load up on cheap, young players and they get better and then watch them become too expensive or grow old and need to find a way to renew their talent.

With that as my paradigm, I'll answer my own questions:
1) No. I would have expected it to end by 2007 and maybe 2006. This organization developed two generations of players and reloaded them on the fly
2) With the Twins payroll level - none. Not Oakland. Not Tampa Bay. Maybe St. Louis?

Ryan is not without his faults and blind spots. But By almost any metric, Ryan squeezed more talent and wins out of fewer resources than any other GM in professional sports for a decade. That might lend itself to some confidence.

#47 old nurse

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 10:04 PM

The Twins are in this mess for three reasons. 1.A string of poor drafts. It happens. The talent coming might suggest there was a string of good drafts and acquisitions like what led to the 2000-2009 run. 2. Bad luck with injured pitchers. How much different would the last three years have been without injuries to Baker and Gibson, How different would have the run been if Nathan or Liriano not been injured. 3. What if Gardy could have dealt better with some players that forced trades?
There is what John just said much better than I could have.

#48 TheLeviathan

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 06:15 AM

I think there is still reason to have confidence in some of the management, it's the 99% figure that I think is strikingly ignorant of results.

I like Terry Ryan, I'm still comfortable with him as the GM - but his FA habits and the fact that drafts under his administration led to the depletion of our farm in the Smith years still leave me wary of him and the guys he trusts to a certain degree. I can't see how anyone can be virtually 100% confident in them. "Some" or "very" confident I would have no issue with personally. I would put myself in the "some" category for sure.

#49 dklien

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 06:43 AM

I would have counted myself in the 99% confidence in Terry Ryan until this year. I remember interviews at the end of last season from TR where he said that starting pitching was the priority for the off season. I also remember an interview Dave St. Peter had where he said that the budget was not a constraint for TR. The facts are that starting pitching has not been even remotely improved and payroll has decreased. I am not sure what my percent confidence is now in the front office, but it is definately decreasing as I watch this season unfold. I start getting excited each year for Twins baseball when pitchers and cathers report to spring training in February. Having given up any hope of contending before the first of June is very depressing.

#50 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 06:56 AM

The Twins were a championship caliber team from 2002-2010. I wonder, would one expect a successful run for a period of longer than nine years? How many other teams can I find with that long of a run of success?

There is a natural cycle that organizations face that is driven by the aging of thir players and is accelerated for non-rich teams by the financial cycle in the CBA. They load up on cheap, young players and they get better and then watch them become too expensive or grow old and need to find a way to renew their talent.

With that as my paradigm, I'll answer my own questions:
1) No. I would have expected it to end by 2007 and maybe 2006. This organization developed two generations of players and reloaded them on the fly
2) With the Twins payroll level - none. Not Oakland. Not Tampa Bay. Maybe St. Louis?

Ryan is not without his faults and blind spots. But By almost any metric, Ryan squeezed more talent and wins out of fewer resources than any other GM in professional sports for a decade. That might lend itself to some confidence.


A championship caliber team?? I must have missed those.
I saw plenty of win a weak division caliber teams, but outside of 1 year (the year we got swept by the vastly inferior A's) I don't think Ryan ever put together a team built to win in the playoffs, and I think the playoff record has bore that out.

#51 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 07:02 AM

To be clear, I have no problem with the confidence in Ryan. I disagree, I would put it at about 65/35'ish, but I can understand it.
I can't understand the confidence in whomever made the decision to sign Nishi, whomever made the decision to get rid of Gomez (which would have been fine had we kept Hardy), then subsequently trade Hardy for nothing.
I can't understand the confidence in whomever failed to entertain trading Delmon Young after his near impossible fluke season, when he finally established some trade value that some sucker probably would have taken bait on.
I can't understand the confidence in whomever thought it was a good idea to trade a top prospect for a mediocre set up man, then forfeit a 1st round pick to keep said mediocre set up man.
I can't understand the confidence in Rick Anderson. Who has he ever made better? I get that the coaches cant take the field, and most of it falls on the players. But, Anderson has a consistent track record of: Pitchers leaving here and improving their K rate, and pitchers coming here and their K rate drops. At what point is that an obvious trend?

And again, don't cop out by assigning Bill Smith the blame for all of the above.
I'm no Billy Smith fan, was thrilled to see him leave that position. But, he was an administrator. The baseball decisions were made with the input of those around him, all of whom are still here.

Edited by Mr. Brooks, 26 May 2013 - 07:04 AM.