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Keith Law Chat (ESPN) Today 12 PM CST

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#1 InfraRen

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 11:09 AM

Generica baseball chat, but I'm sure it'll be draft-loaded ff anyone is interested!

Chat: Chat with Keith Law - SportsNation - ESPN

Edited by InfraRen, 23 May 2013 - 11:12 AM.

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#2 InfraRen

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 11:17 AM

Ryan (Denver)

Pretty much every mock draft I've seen has the same 3 guys in the same order at the top. Do you think there is any chance that the Astros or Cubs take Bryant or another bat?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

My mock explicitly mentioned Moran as a candidate at the first pick. I think there's at least a 25% chance he's the guy there, maybe higher. That would jumble the top five a little - the Cubs would take Appel, then the Rockies might take Gray over Bryant, and Cleveland would hope to get Bryant if the Twins stick with Stewart.
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#3 InfraRen

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 11:42 AM

[h=6]Twins Twerp (Cando, ND)[/h]

How far does Manaea fall with the latest injury? Does he just demand a high figure and then go back to college to prove himself top 5 worthy?
[h=6]Klaw (1:38 PM)
[/h]

That's exactly what I think happens. Or he gets picked high in the second round by a team that saved some money on its first pick (cough Houston cough).
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#4 John Bonnes

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:13 PM

Twins Twerp (Cando, ND)



How far does Manaea fall with the latest injury? Does he just demand a high figure and then go back to college to prove himself top 5 worthy?
Klaw (1:38 PM)




That's exactly what I think happens. Or he gets picked high in the second round by a team that saved some money on its first pick (cough Houston cough).


Hmm. This could be what the Twins have in mind if they try to save some money on that 4th overall pick. If the first three go Gray, Appel and Bryant & Twins can take one of any of the next college pitchers for a discount AND get Manea in the 2nd round, I'll be doing backflips.

#5 amjgt

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:16 PM

No surprise but someone asked about a re-rank of the 2012 draft and Law had Buxton 1st.

#6 John Bonnes

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:18 PM

Re: Jose Berrios

I haven't talked to anyone who's seen him this year yet, since it's primarily draft season for me. He wasn't a big ceiling guy at the time of the draft - what you saw was primarily what you'd get.


#7 John Bonnes

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:26 PM

No surprise but someone asked about a re-rank of the 2012 draft and Law had Buxton 1st.


Above Gausman, who was fourth.

#8 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:26 PM

Hmm. This could be what the Twins have in mind if they try to save some money on that 4th overall pick. If the first three go Gray, Appel and Bryant & Twins can take one of any of the next college pitchers for a discount AND get Manea in the 2nd round, I'll be doing backflips.


I think the idea of a team using left over money to sign Manaea is a pipe dream and not well thought through by KLaw. Manaea was/is expecting top 5 money. Even if the Astros somehow saved $1 million bucks and used that toward Manaea, that still wouldn't be close to what he is expecting let alone the Twins who have a smaller draft pool. Let's not forget Scott Boras is his agent and something similar happend with Appel last year.

And this is all assuming that the Pirates who have 2 first round picks, or a team at the end of the 1st round with a supplimental pick in addition to their origianl pick wont take him. I find it very unlikely a team like the Cardinals, Rangers or Yankees wont roll the dice on him.

#9 mike wants wins

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:41 PM

Yankees have three early picks, right? Manaea won't make it to the Twins, though I did suggest this possibility in one of the trade down conversations.
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#10 cmb0252

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:52 PM

I see zero chance Manaea falls that far unless Boras tells people not to take him. Even if he fell to the Twins for signability issues they would have to go WAY under slot at 4 to even think about it.

#11 John Bonnes

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 01:08 PM

It would definitely be easier for the Astros with their $7.9M slot for #1. If they sign Moran at a #3 slot value (which is more than he'll get otherwise), that gives them about $3.6M of slot money to sign someone with their #4 pick. That's the equivalent of a #5 or #6 pick.

Manaea missed yet another start this week due to injuries. There is no way he goes top 5. I don't think he goes top 10 right now. And beyond that there are reasons nobody signs him below that money. His slot value is $2.8M at pick 11 and $1.8M when the Yankees pick. This isn't the old days. Teams CAN'T just throw more money at him. They're limited by the cap now.

And if they can't sign him, whoever picks him just loses the pick and the money associated with it, and only get back a similar pick next year. Why would teams risk that when at best they get a high-upside pitcher that might have some chronic medical problems?

It makes less sense for the Twins, after looking at the numbers. If the Twins were to sign a #4 pick at #6 money, they can pay $2.3M to their 2nd round pick. That would put Manaea at about the same level as a #16 guy. Id be a little surprised if he signed for that.

#12 edavis0308

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 01:17 PM

I guess I don't know fine details, but is Manea's situation shaping up like Giolito did last year? Or is there something that I am missing that makes the two situations different?

#13 cmb0252

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 01:30 PM

The Twins can go right under 5% their total pool allowance extra and only suffer money penalties. After 5% you lose picks. Which should give the Twins about 500k extra or something.

#14 cmb0252

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 01:36 PM

I guess I don't know fine details, but is Manea's situation shaping up like Giolito did last year? Or is there something that I am missing that makes the two situations different?


Both fell, or will fall, for injury related reasons but Giolito's was more server. Giolito needed TJ's while as of now Manaea has only had hip/shoulder soreness. Giolito's representative told teams if they take him he isn't coming cheap and the Nats went over slot to get him. Currently no one knows what Manaea is asking.

#15 drjim

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 02:29 PM

I guess I don't know fine details, but is Manea's situation shaping up like Giolito did last year? Or is there something that I am missing that makes the two situations different?


Manea can re-enter the draft next year. I'm almost positive Giolito had a 4 year college commitment, so if he didn't sign he wouldn't be able to be drafted until 2015.
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#16 James

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 02:39 PM

The Twins can go right under 5% their total pool allowance extra and only suffer money penalties. After 5% you lose picks. Which should give the Twins about 500k extra or something.

You are correct. They would lose next years 1st round draft pick if they went above 5%. Any money they spent 0-5% above their pool is taxed at a 75% rate. So it would cost the team more than just that $500k, but if that's what it takes to get a player signed, maybe it is worth it.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#17 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 03:56 PM

As others have said, there's good reason to be skeptical of this rumor, but this was pretty similar to how it went down last year. Just a couple of weeks before the draft, people started talking about Correa going high. No one thought the Twins would even consider him and 2 and Houston took him at 1. If the Twins want a shot at Appel/Gray, then something like this absolutely has to happen.

#18 Oxtung

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 11:59 PM

And if they can't sign him, whoever picks him just loses the pick and the money associated with it, and only get back a similar pick next year. Why would teams risk that when at best they get a high-upside pitcher that might have some chronic medical problems?


Are you saying that they don't get the money back the following year? I can't see that being the case. It would make signing a pick nearly impossible the second year.

If they do get the money the following year then what have they lost? Only a year of development but they stand a chance to gain a pitcher that was considered to be in the running for #1 overall before injuries slowed him down. That is some pretty big upside with very little risk.

#19 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 07:03 AM

Are you saying that they don't get the money back the following year? I can't see that being the case. It would make signing a pick nearly impossible the second year.

If they do get the money the following year then what have they lost? Only a year of development but they stand a chance to gain a pitcher that was considered to be in the running for #1 overall before injuries slowed him down. That is some pretty big upside with very little risk.


I'm not sure what John is saying, but if we don't sign a pick in the top 10 this year, we get it back (1 spot lower) next year and the cash to sign the draftee as well.