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First quarter over...on pace for 89 losses

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#1 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:03 PM

Are you surprised by this or not?
Ive thought they've played WAY over their head, but are just a game under my expectation of 90+ losses.
Pitching wise, other than Kyle Gibson for Pedro Hernandez, what other moves are their to make?? Sam Deduno?? Cole DeVries?? PJ Walters?? Id be stunned to see Worley/Pelprey given up on.
Chris Collabello absolutely deserves a shot, but what spot does he take to get ABs.
Can they get back to .500 or is this season now over by Memorial Day

#2 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:06 PM

Are you surprised by this or not?
Ive thought they've played WAY over their head, but are just a game under my expectation of 90+ losses.
Pitching wise, other than Kyle Gibson for Pedro Hernandez, what other moves are their to make?? Sam Deduno?? Cole DeVries?? PJ Walters?? Id be stunned to see Worley/Pelprey given up on.
Chris Collabello absolutely deserves a shot, but what spot does he take to get ABs.
Can they get back to .500 or is this season now over by Memorial Day


Call me an optimist if you must, but I give them to holding off on calling it a season 'til Flag Day (June 14).

#3 Brodin4Calder

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:16 PM

I think it would be better if they lose a ton of games and get another top 5 pick. I mean they have no shot at the playoffs so it doesnt make sense to be a mediocre team that gets a bad pick. Most of the players on the team wont even be here in 2-3 years anyways, this season is pretty much worthless so why not get a great pick and a potential great player? Alot of really good teams now were near the bottom for several years and because of that they got great players and are now among the leagues best teams. SF, TB, BAL, PIT, WSH and TEX are all good examples. WSH had back to back 1st overall picks and got Harper and Strasburg, they also got Zimmerman in the top 5 a couple years earlier. They would not be the same team without those 3 players.

Edited by Brodin4Calder, 19 May 2013 - 09:19 PM.


#4 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:25 PM

I think it would be better if they lose a ton of games and get another top 5 pick. I mean they have no shot at the playoffs so it doesnt make sense to be a mediocre team that gets a bad pick. Most of the players on the team wont even be here in 2-3 years anyways, this season is pretty much worthless so why not get a great pick and a potential great player? Alot of really good teams now were near the bottom for several years and because of that they got great players and are now among the leagues best teams. SF, TB, BAL, WSH and TEX are all good examples. WSH had back to back 1st overall picks and got Harper and Strasburg, they also got Zimmerman in the top 5 a couple years earlier. They would not be the same team without those 3 players.


Of course the Twins have been known to frequently draft the guys they know they can sign below slot over TBA. Buxton was a nice departure, let's see what happens in June.

Saying that it's better to tank games, for the third year in a row is unacceptable. This is a team that built a new ballpark for the express purpose of gaining permanent financial wherewithal to afford never having to endure the long cold years of purgatory, like the 90s and the 70s and early 80s. Teams like Boston, who rebooted themselves after last year's rockbottom finish, or the Indians, who brought in a fresh voice and a proven winner coupled with a new-found financial commitment are who they should be emulating, on a smaller financial scale, of course. If not, then every veteran should have been moved off the team after 2011 for a real rebuild.

#5 Twins Twerp

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:25 PM

Drafting top 5 is a crapshoot. Many of those guys turn out to be mediocre or dont make it to the bigs. You never punt on a season. Ever. You always try to win games. We'll see how the astros strategy works out in five years...but if any of those top guys flame out, you lost 90 games for no reason and are back at square one.

You especially don't punt if have a HOF in his prime (Plouffe...jk Doumit...ok Mauer).

#6 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:27 PM

Drafting top 5 is a crapshoot. Many of those guys turn out to be mediocre or dont make it to the bigs. You never punt on a season. Ever. You always try to win games. We'll see how the astros strategy works out in five years...but if any of those top guys flame out, you lost 90 games for no reason and are back at square one.

You especially don't punt if have a HOF in his prime (Plouffe...jk Doumit...ok Mauer).


TT and Jokin practically on the same page? What phase is the moon in again?

Edited by jokin, 19 May 2013 - 09:29 PM.


#7 Brodin4Calder

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:37 PM

Of course the Twins have been known to frequently draft the guys they know they can sign below slot over TBA. Buxton was a nice departure, let's see what happens in June.

Saying that it's better to tank games, for the third year in a row is unacceptable. This is a team that built a new ballpark for the express purpose of gaining permanent financial wherewithal to afford never having to endure the long cold years of purgatory, like the 90s and the 70s and early 80s. Teams like Boston, who rebooted themselves after last year's rockbottom finish, or the Indians, who brought in a fresh voice and a proven winner coupled with a new-found financial commitment are who they should be emulating, on a smaller financial scale, of course. If not, then every veteran should have been moved off the team after 2011 for a real rebuild.


The Twins cant spend 140+ MIL year on payroll like BOS, and they did get rid of most of the veterans last year and this offseason. Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan, Revere and Span were all moved for the rebuild.

This sink to the bottom was necessary to be successful in the future. Thats what almost every team has to go through to get back to the top. Like I said BAL, SF, WSH, TB, TEX and others all did the same thing. BAL got Wieters and Machado in their bad years, SF got Bumgarner and Posey in theirs, WSH got Harper and Strasburg and Zimmerman in theirs.... Yea it doesnt always work but for the Twins to be successful with a small payroll they have to emulate what those teams did. Now we have Buxton and a 4th pick from being bad, and Berrios from a compensatory pick we got when we let Cuddyer go and we traded for Meyer. The Fans will love watching all of these young guys trickle in and in a couple years they could be competing for the playoffs.

#8 Brodin4Calder

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:54 PM

Drafting top 5 is a crapshoot. Many of those guys turn out to be mediocre or dont make it to the bigs. You never punt on a season. Ever. You always try to win games. We'll see how the astros strategy works out in five years...but if any of those top guys flame out, you lost 90 games for no reason and are back at square one.

You especially don't punt if have a HOF in his prime (Plouffe...jk Doumit...ok Mauer).


Nobody said it was a garuntee, im just saying thats the Twins best shot at winning a WS. They need to get as much high end talent together at once and hope most of them reach their potential around the same time. It has failed but it has worked very well to like with SF, WSH, TB, TEX and now BAL is getting really good too.

#9 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:58 PM

The Twins cant spend 140+ MIL year on payroll like BOS, and they did get rid of most of the veterans last year and this offseason. Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan, Revere and Span were all moved for the rebuild.

This sink to the bottom was necessary to be successful in the future. Thats what almost every team has to go through to get back to the top. Like I said BAL, SF, WSH, TB, TEX and others all did the same thing. BAL got Wieters and Machado in their bad years, SF got Bumgarner and Posey in theirs, WSH got Harper and Strasburg and Zimmerman in theirs.... Yea it doesnt always work but for the Twins to be successful with a small payroll they have to emulate what those teams did. Now we have Buxton and a 4th pick from being bad, and Berrios from a compensatory pick we got when we let Cuddyer go and we traded for Meyer. The Fans will love watching all of these young guys trickle in and in a couple years they could be competing for the playoffs.


Nobody said anything about a $140M payroll, in fact I explicitly said they would/should do it on the cheap compared to the Bosox. Oh, the Tribe did a major makeover and their payroll is $73M, lower than the Twins.

#10 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:01 PM

The Twins cant spend 140+ MIL year on payroll like BOS, and they did get rid of most of the veterans last year and this offseason. Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan, Revere and Span were all moved for the rebuild.

This sink to the bottom was necessary to be successful in the future. Thats what almost every team has to go through to get back to the top. Like I said BAL, SF, WSH, TB, TEX and others all did the same thing. BAL got Wieters and Machado in their bad years, SF got Bumgarner and Posey in theirs, WSH got Harper and Strasburg and Zimmerman in theirs.... Yea it doesnt always work but for the Twins to be successful with a small payroll they have to emulate what those teams did. Now we have Buxton and a 4th pick from being bad, and Berrios from a compensatory pick we got when we let Cuddyer go and we traded for Meyer. The Fans will love watching all of these young guys trickle in and in a couple years they could be competing for the playoffs.


I documented in another thread the Giants personnel moves since 2006. They were continual players in the FA market, making some good and bad moves, but always having a Plan B, when A wasn't working out. They were, in fact, attempting to win it every year, not play for the top draft pick, that's what organizations with a winning emphasis and culture do.

"Could" should not be an acceptable description of a team.

#11 Brodin4Calder

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:04 PM

Nobody said anything about a $140M payroll, in fact I explicitly said they would/should do it on the cheap compared to the Bosox. Oh, the Tribe did a major makeover and their payroll is $73M, lower than the Twins.


The Tribe has young guys like Kipnis and Santana making barely any money playing like all stars, and guys like Reynolds and Masterson playing like MVPs on pretty small contracts. Thats the kind of baseball the Twins want to be playing, if we have a ton of young guys on small contracts playing like all stars we have a shot to win a WS.

#12 Brodin4Calder

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:10 PM

I documented in another thread the Giants personnel moves since 2006. They were continual players in the FA market, making some good and bad moves, but always having a Plan B, when A wasn't working out. They were, in fact, attempting to win it every year, not play for the top draft pick, that's what organizations with a winning emphasis and culture do.

"Could" should not be an acceptable description of a team.


You guys are trying to hard to sound right. SF would have had no shot at winning the WS without Posey and Bumgarnerm they got them because they had horrible seasons. Im not saying the Twins should purposley tank Im just saying it would make more sense to get a top pick. Most of the players on the team wont even be here in 2-3 years, this season is worthless. We need as many young guys on small contracts playing like all stars as we can get if we wanna win the WS one day. We have a great group of prospects that could make that happen and we still have the 4th pick this year. Why not get another top 5 pick that could be an ace or a great hitter? I know it doesnt always work out but its what we have to do.

And once our prospects are up and we are contenders we will be looking to FA for veterans to give us depth. Theres alot of things a team must do to win a WS but the most important is to develop your best players through the draft.

#13 Nick Nelson

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:24 PM

I hate to say it, but I think things are going to look really bad about a month from now. The Twins are playing some of their worst ball of the season at the moment, and now must head to Atlanta and Detroit, the beginning of a stretch in which they play 15 of 20 on the road.

On the bright side, I think they'll have a pretty decent second half and finish short of 90 losses. But I'm bracing for the worst in the short-term.

#14 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:26 PM

The Tribe has young guys like Kipnis and Santana making barely any money playing like all stars, and guys like Reynolds and Masterson playing like MVPs on pretty small contracts. Thats the kind of baseball the Twins want to be playing, if we have a ton of young guys on small contracts playing like all stars we have a shot to win a WS.


The Tribe turned over a majority of their roster.
And they, not surprisingly, also went out and acquired high-dollar free agents and a whole pack of mid-tier FAs and prospect and established player trades for a team that lost 94 games last year, exactly 2 less than the Twins. Reynolds is only playing slightly better than his career numbers and Masterson is pitching exactly as he pitched 2 years ago. There are 2 ways to reset, Boston and the Dodgers is one way, Cleveland is the other.

#15 Badsmerf

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:26 PM

Drafting top 5 is a crapshoot. Many of those guys turn out to be mediocre or dont make it to the bigs. You never punt on a season. Ever. You always try to win games. We'll see how the astros strategy works out in five years...but if any of those top guys flame out, you lost 90 games for no reason and are back at square one.

You especially don't punt if have a HOF in his prime (Plouffe...jk Doumit...ok Mauer).

Crapshot? I really wouldn't say that. Some of the guys drafted in the top 5 in previous years haven't worked out, but that is where you are most likely to get a premium player.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#16 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:30 PM

On the bright side, I think they'll have a pretty decent second half and finish short of 90 losses. But I'm bracing for the worst in the short-term.


I concur with the first half of your analysis about painful times just ahead. However, on what basis are you seeing the bright side for the 2nd half?

#17 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:32 PM

And once our prospects are up and we are contenders we will be looking to FA for veterans to give us depth. Theres alot of things a team must do to win a WS but the most important is to develop your best players through the draft.


There is no evidence that the club has ever done this in the recent past to sufficiently insure a decent shot at a World Series win.

#18 Nick Nelson

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:33 PM

I concur with the first half of your analysis about painful times just ahead. However, on what basis are you seeing the bright side for the 2nd half?


Various reasons. Better pitchers plugged into the rotation, Hicks/Arcia hopefully settling in a bit more, etc.

#19 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:35 PM

Various reasons. Better pitchers plugged into the rotation, Hicks/Arcia hopefully settling in a bit more, etc.

...different manager... :th_alc:

#20 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:36 PM

I concur with the first half of your analysis about painful times just ahead. However, on what basis are you seeing the bright side for the 2nd half?


It's inexplicable, but teams often seem to get a spark once the high salary vets get traded and the manager gets canned.

#21 Twins Twerp

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:36 PM

More of a crapshoot than other major sports. I am not saying its even less than a 50 percent chance you get you get a star. But in baseball a pitcher can blow out his elbow and not make the majors; a position player is 3 to 4 years away from the bigs. Alot can go wrong is what im trying to say. The royals tried this losing for winning thing and it has been iffy at best.

With basebal you just do not know how a kid will handle the grind of playing every day...mentally or physically.

#22 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:37 PM

It's inexplicable, but teams often seem to get a spark once the high salary vets get traded and the manager gets canned.


Thanks for lightening our heavy load with a levity-break, Nick!

#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:39 PM

...different manager... :th_alc:


Ha, couldn't have said it better myself. Well not faster anyhow.

#24 jokin

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 10:47 PM

Various reasons. Better pitchers plugged into the rotation, Hicks/Arcia hopefully settling in a bit more, etc.


So the minimum wage SPs have to come to the rescue yet again? What was all that offseason movement and acquisition flurry all about again?

I think it's reasonable to project that Arcia and Hicks will have decent 2nd halfs, Plouffe might also have a dominating stretch or two that the Twins can climb on his back with. But- you also have to offset the likelihood of big holes in the lineup once the salary-dumping begins in earnest, as a result of that likelihood, I think you'll be lucky with a net-net wash on the position side of things.

So it will all come back to pitching- a shuddering prospect to contemplate yet again- you may as well call up Gibson at his Arb-Free date, let him get his remaining available innings, as well as the cast of suspect SPs for their various curtain calls and pitch-to-uncertainties, and finally, Meyer and May for 10 or so starts in August and September.

Edited by jokin, 19 May 2013 - 10:50 PM.


#25 stringer bell

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 04:09 AM

Four types of players that the Twins need to make decisions on in the remaining three quarters of the season: 1) Veterans--keep and pay them, or trade them? This would include the oft mentioned Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Burton and Perkins. 2) Young non-rookies--should they be penciled in for the forseeable future or discarded? This is Dozier, Plouffe, Parmelee, Florimon, Escobar, and Pedro Hernandez. 3) Talented rookies--what is best for their development? Major league time, staying in the lineup/rotation through their struggles or triple A time in Rochester? That would be Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson. 4) Finally, minor-league producers without star projection. Do these guys have enough talent to help a rebuilding big league club on the rise? This would include A Richardson, Colabello, Deduno, Walters, Albers, De Vries and Pinto.

#26 ChiTownTwinsFan

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 06:43 AM

...different manager... :th_alc:


Not that I don't agree, but will the Twins do it? I just don't think they will.

#27 johnnydakota

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 06:49 AM

You never punt on a season?
Didnt we do that when they brought back
Terry Ryan and Ronnie?

#28 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 06:51 AM

Not that I don't agree, but will the Twins do it? I just don't think they will.

I don't actually think they will either. But just cause you ain't gettin' a pony for Christmas don't mean you can't wish for one! :)

#29 ChiTownTwinsFan

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 07:06 AM

I don't actually think they will either. But just cause you ain't gettin' a pony for Christmas don't mean you can't wish for one! :)


Settin' yourself up for some big hurt, aren't you? heh. Okay ... worse would be ... let's say they do get rid of Gardy ... and then give the job to .... <wait for it> ....





Ulger!

imo, that would be worse. But if they actually do fire Gardy, I'd hope it's a sign they have more sense than that.

#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 07:07 AM

Of course the Twins have been known to frequently draft the guys they know they can sign below slot over TBA. Buxton was a nice departure, let's see what happens in June.


I know they've done this in the past but it's starting to become the distant past, isn't it?

Hicks wasn't underslot.
Gibson wasn't underslot.
Wimmers wasn't underslot, was he?
Michael wasn't underslot (but damn, that didn't work out for them at all).
Buxton obviously wasn't underslot.

Sure, Revere was underslot but a lot has happened since 2007.