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2013 Fantasy baseball rankings

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#1 biggentleben

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 10:33 AM

Something I'd done on BYTO in the past that created some good commenting back and forth was annual fantasy rankings and a review at the end of the season as to how those rankings panned out. I've already posted them on another site, and I'm curious of the interest here. To save board space, I'd post them all in this thread with a new one each day.
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#2 biggentleben

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 12:08 PM

With not anyone screaming "No!!!" or clamoring, either, I'll simply post my rankings without commentary, and feel free to comment/question/criticize to your heart's content!
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#3 biggentleben

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 12:41 PM

Catcher
1. Buster Posey
2. Joe Mauer
3. Miguel Montero
4. Victor Martinez
5. Yadi Molina
6. Brian McCann
7. Carlos Santana
8. Matt Wieters
9. Salvador Perez
10. AJ Pierzynski

First Base
1. Prince Fielder
2. Albert Pujols
3. Joey Votto
4. Adrian Gonzalez
5. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Freddie Freeman
7. Billy Butler
8. Allen Craig
9. Paul Konerko
10. Mark Trumbo

Second Base
1. Robinson Cano
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Ben Zobrist
6. Jason Kipnis
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Chase Utley
9. Aaron Hill
10. Jose Altuve

Third Base
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Adrian Beltre
3. David Wright
4. Evan Longoria
5. Brett Lawrie
6. Chase Headley
7. Ryan Zimmerman
8. Pablo Sandoval
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Martin Prado

Shortstop
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Starlin Castro
5. Asdrubel Cabrera
6. Elvis Andrus
7. Jimmy Rollins
8. Derek Jeter
9. Alexei Ramirez
10. Ian Desmond

Outfield
1. Ryan Braun
2. Mike Trout
3. Matt Kemp
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Giancarlo Stanton
6. Carlos Gonzalez
7. Josh Hamilton
8. Matt Holliday
9. Jose Bautista
10. Jason Heyward
11. Justin Upton
12. Bryce Harper
13. Yoenis Cespedes
14. Adam Jones
15. Carlos Beltran
16. Jay Bruce
17. BJ Upton
18. Jacoby Ellsbury
19. Shin-Soo Choo
20. Austin Jackson

Starting Pitchers
1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Felix Hernandez
4. David Price
5. Jered Weaver
6. Cliff Lee
7. Stephen Strasburg
8. Cole Hamels
9. Adam Wainwright
10. RA Dickey
11. Zack Greinke
12. Matt Cain
13. Chris Sale
14. Gio Gonzalez
15. Jordan Zimmerman
16. Madison Bumgarner
17. James Shields
18. Roy Halladay
19. Josh Johnson
20. Yovani Gallardo

Relief Pitchers
1. Craig Kimbrel
1.5* Aroldis Chapman
2. Jason Motte
3. Jon Papelbon
4. JJ Putz
5. Mariano Rivera
6. Sergio Romo
7. Huston Street
8. Joel Hanrahan
9. John Axford
10. Brandon League
* If moved back to closer
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#4 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 12:49 PM

Well, you said criticism welcome, so I have a couple.
Paul Goldschmidt doesnt even crack your top 10 first baseman?
Strasburg #7 starting pitcher?
The dude is #1 if the innings limits are off, and even if they limit him to 210 or so he should be #3 at worst.

#5 kab21

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 10:24 PM

Dickey is not in my top 20 SP'ers. the K rate was a fluke and I do not trust him. Darvish has to at least be ranked. I think we'll see some improvements in your list of negatives that's coming. I'm also avoiding Jered Weaver that high. His K rate is dropping like a rock.

I'm a little more skeptical of goldy than most but he should be in the Freeman to Craig tier. Same goes for Rizzo. I'm okay with moving Konerko and trumbo out of the top 10.

Drafting strategy this year:
Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher.
Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast
Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.

#6 biggentleben

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:09 PM

Dickey is not in my top 20 SP'ers. the K rate was a fluke and I do not trust him. Darvish has to at least be ranked. I think we'll see some improvements in your list of negatives that's coming. I'm also avoiding Jered Weaver that high. His K rate is dropping like a rock.

I'm a little more skeptical of goldy than most but he should be in the Freeman to Craig tier. Same goes for Rizzo. I'm okay with moving Konerko and trumbo out of the top 10.

Drafting strategy this year:
Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher.
Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast
Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.


I completely missed Darvish. I didn't copy it straight, so somehow I missed him. He's top 10 for me. I agree on Goldy, but there's a group of about 7 1B, and he's in it. He and Rizzo would be my 11-12.
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#7 biggentleben

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:10 PM

Well, you said criticism welcome, so I have a couple.
Paul Goldschmidt doesnt even crack your top 10 first baseman?
Strasburg #7 starting pitcher?
The dude is #1 if the innings limits are off, and even if they limit him to 210 or so he should be #3 at worst.


I'm not touching Strasburg at the price I have to pay/draft him this year for a one year league. I can see #3 at best, but there's plenty of injury risk. Same reason Sale is lower for me than most.

Goldschmidt is in a group of 7-10 guys who are pretty much interchangeable. I'd have him #11.
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#8 biggentleben

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:15 PM

Drafting strategy this year:
Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher.
Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast
Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.


I can agree with this, but I think 3B is very deep personally, at least with guys who give SOME value, in comparison to 1B where I think after about 14, it's UGLY. Guys like Mike Moustakas or Manny Machado could easily be top 5-7 3B next year and aren't top 10 this year, for instance.
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#9 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:31 AM

I'm not touching Strasburg at the price I have to pay/draft him this year for a one year league. I can see #3 at best, but there's plenty of injury risk. Same reason Sale is lower for me than most.

Goldschmidt is in a group of 7-10 guys who are pretty much interchangeable. I'd have him #11.


Well, luckily for me there are people who must agree with you in my drafts.
I've been getting Stras late 2nd/early 3rd round.
We'll have to reconvene here at the end of the year when he's making a legit push at 300K's and is the top ranked SP in roto.

#10 biggentleben

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:11 PM

Well, luckily for me there are people who must agree with you in my drafts.
I've been getting Stras late 2nd/early 3rd round.
We'll have to reconvene here at the end of the year when he's making a legit push at 300K's and is the top ranked SP in roto.


Those from BYTO days will confirm that I am more than willing to come back to my projections and eat crow where I should. That said, I never said Stras couldn't do that, but when guys like Felix and David Price are in the same area, I simply cannot take him with the worries I have about how he holds up.
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#11 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:38 PM

No, thats not how I meant it ben.
Just saying I'm glad people feel that way, because then I get him in my drafts.
I find it interesting that you dont have the same concerns with King Felix though, what with the elbow issues he's been having.
As for Price, he's my pick to win AL Cy Young, so far be it for me to knock him in any way. Its just that when I'm drafting for fantasy I'm going upside whenever its close.
I could see Stras easily putting up similar rate numbers as all the rest of the top pitchers, while completely blowing them out of the water in K's, which means I can round out my staff in the later rounds with the low K, groundball machines that tend to be undervalued, if I so choose.

#12 biggentleben

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 04:32 PM

No, thats not how I meant it ben.
Just saying I'm glad people feel that way, because then I get him in my drafts.
I find it interesting that you dont have the same concerns with King Felix though, what with the elbow issues he's been having.
As for Price, he's my pick to win AL Cy Young, so far be it for me to knock him in any way. Its just that when I'm drafting for fantasy I'm going upside whenever its close.
I could see Stras easily putting up similar rate numbers as all the rest of the top pitchers, while completely blowing them out of the water in K's, which means I can round out my staff in the later rounds with the low K, groundball machines that tend to be undervalued, if I so choose.


Any pitcher can have injury issues, but the greatest predictor of missing time due to arm injury is previous arm injury. Felix had comments made at the time of his new contract, but no reported discomfort this spring, and it came out that there was no structural damage, it was simply worry about workload that he has had so far. That didn't get near the publicity that the "ZOMG his contract is over because his elbow is about to blow up!!" crap did. I'm enjoying people letting Felix fall to me in drafts as he's very consistent.

I'm not sure about rounding out a staff with groundball guys either. I tend to do flyers on guys off a bad year or young high-upside pitchers, like Josh Beckett, Mike Minor, etc.
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#13 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 06:10 PM

Yeah I take a couple of those guys as well, but banking on near 300K's from Stras lets me grab 1 or 2 for the back end that I can almost guarantee myself will have solid ERA's, but tend to fall because they don't have big K totals. I didnt mean I'm filling out the entire rest of my staff with those guys.
My typical pitching staff might be:
Stras, late 2nd, early 3rd
Sale, late 6th, early 7th
Medlan, 8th-9th
Low K/solid ERA guy who's undervalued (Fister, Miley, McCarthy, Hudson, Anderson, etc.) 11th-12th
Samardzija, 14th
Upside/bounceback candidate (Lester, Beckett, Minor, Estrada, Garcia, etc.) 15th+

If my bench targets are gone in the late rounds I might even pick up a Beachy to stash on the DL.

#14 biggentleben

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 08:17 PM

If you're getting Lester after the 15th, you're not playing with smart players.
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#15 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 08:52 PM

If you're getting Lester after the 15th, you're not playing with smart players.


His adp is at 138.2 right now, which means he's going 2nd to last in the 14th round of a 10 team mixed.

#16 kab21

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:10 PM

I can agree with this, but I think 3B is very deep personally, at least with guys who give SOME value, in comparison to 1B where I think after about 14, it's UGLY. Guys like Mike Moustakas or Manny Machado could easily be top 5-7 3B next year and aren't top 10 this year, for instance.


There a lot of interesting guys but they all have low floors. As an example I think Machado will struggle this year before becoming the player we expect. I could easily see a .260 avg with 15 HR and 10SB (or worse). Mous could easily repeat last year. I would like to get a steadier player 3Bman and take a flier on one of these upside guys as an extra hitter. I just don't feel comfortable with any of them as a starter.

#17 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 08:33 AM

There a lot of interesting guys but they all have low floors. As an example I think Machado will struggle this year before becoming the player we expect. I could easily see a .260 avg with 15 HR and 10SB (or worse). Mous could easily repeat last year. I would like to get a steadier player 3Bman and take a flier on one of these upside guys as an extra hitter. I just don't feel comfortable with any of them as a starter.


I'll agree with this. What I've done in leagues where I've waited on 3B is I've gone after 2-3 of those type of guys. I have one league with Pedro Alvarez, Moustakas, and Todd Frazier. I'm almost certain I'll get fantasy starter production from at least one of the three. I do get the low floor, though, which is why I bank those guys with someone behind them as well.
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#18 biggentleben

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 08:36 AM

His adp is at 138.2 right now, which means he's going 2nd to last in the 14th round of a 10 team mixed.


If you're getting that from ESPN, I wouldn't trust that number. Too many autodrafts in there to make it viable. I like using the NFBC ADP's, which, of course, I don't have access to at work to look up his position there. All of those leagues are pay leagues and the players tend to be more committed.
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#19 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 11:48 AM

If you're getting that from ESPN, I wouldn't trust that number. Too many autodrafts in there to make it viable. I like using the NFBC ADP's, which, of course, I don't have access to at work to look up his position there. All of those leagues are pay leagues and the players tend to be more committed.


He's going even later according to NFBC, at 144.47

#20 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:06 PM

Zobrist is eligible for SS, 2B, and RF in ESPN leagues.