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Article: Position Analysis: Right Field
3 replies to this topic
Posted 23 March 2012 - 12:39 AM
If the Twins hope to be competitive, we will probably need more RBI from Josh than what's projected here. I see a great year for Willingham, hitting .265/.350/.470. Since his power has never been so that his HRs just barely leave the field, I don't anticipate the spaciousness of Target limiting his HR production, I'd guess 24HR, though I see him hitting measurably more doubles in this park (as long as I'm correct with the .265 average, and hitting line drives rather than moon balls). I really hope Josh can more than replace Cuddyer's numbers, even with equal defense.
Posted 23 March 2012 - 11:08 AM
I think that Willingham's contact numbers last season were aberrant. His K% was a career high 26.6% and his BB% career low 9.9%. With a potential regression towards a high teens K% and a mid teens BB%, both his BA (thus, also his SLG) and OBP will be higher. I think a career average slashline of .260/.360/.480 is not out of the question. Also, if we use career PA/HR numbers, with 600 PAs he projects around 25-26 HRs, which also is not out of question. RBI depend on others as well, so I would not venture a guess. I think that Doumit should also be listed in the RF depth.
Posted 23 March 2012 - 11:37 AM
Willingham is a major upgrade over Cuddyer (in my humble opinion). If you look back at Cuddyer's stats, you'll notice the only years he could be called an above-average corner outfielder came in 2006, 2009 and 2011. Otherwise known as Contract Year, Option Year, and Contract Year. Excluding those three years, Cuddyer has never hit above .276, hot more than 16 homers, or had more than 81 RBI. His cumulative WAR for the 4 seasons (excluding the three mentioned above) where he played more than 100 games is 5.4, or an average of 1.35. I expect Cuddyer to be pedestrian this year and next, with one last hurrah in 2014.