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Miguel Sano is Off to a Worrisome Start

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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 01:16 PM

Why shouldn't the Twins treat Sano the same way they treated Vargas?

Because Sano is a much better player?
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#42 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 01:30 PM

 

Why shouldn't the Twins treat Sano the same way they treated Vargas?

 

Because he's 100x better?

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#43 Dodecahedron

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:07 PM

 

Because he's 100x better?

 

I must have missed that. He is a worse defender and a less consistent hitter. The dinger rate is similar. Sano drives cars and lives in houses that are 100x better, I guess.

I seem to recall fans having heart attacks at the very idea of Vargas manning first base. We have someone worse over there now and we're OK with it. And heck, we don't even want to talk about it.

 

Both the Twins and the fans have inconsistencies in the treatment of Vargas and Sano.


#44 Brandon

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:27 PM

Last season threw a lot of hitters out of whack. Lets see how he is hitting 200 ABs into the season. He just needs consistent ABs and I bet he will be fine. I look forward to seeing a .250/.360/.570 slash line with 40 HErs in 550 ABs.

#45 tony&rodney

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:34 PM

Brandon is correct - let us all take a look after 200 at bats.

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#46 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 03:42 PM

I must have missed that. He is a worse defender and a less consistent hitter. The dinger rate is similar. Sano drives cars and lives in houses that are 100x better, I guess.

I seem to recall fans having heart attacks at the very idea of Vargas manning first base. We have someone worse over there now and we're OK with it. And heck, we don't even want to talk about it.

Both the Twins and the fans have inconsistencies in the treatment of Vargas and Sano.

Sano is a much better player.

On offense, Sano has a career wRC+ (probably the best single indicator of offensive output available) of 118. Vargas had a career wRC+ of 100, exactly league average.

On defense, it's harder to gauge because Sano has so little time at first base. He was -5 DRS last season and his UZR was pretty equally bad. It was also Miguel's first season at first. FWIW, in a microscopic sample size this season he's zeroed out (average). Vargas was decent at first, posting a +4 DRS in his career. Time will tell how that shakes out but I expect Sano to ultimately grade pretty similarly to Vargas in that regard. For a first baseman, Sano is pretty athletic and mobile enough to do okay over there.

As a whole, Vargas posted an fWAR of 0.9 in ~850 PAs while Sano has an fWAR of 8.8 in ~2300 PAs. That's not particularly close; Vargas is marginally above replacement level while Sano is somewhere around average MLB starter in overall value.
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#47 h2oface

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 04:07 PM

 

Can we appreciate Sano for what he is? A guy that will have a lot of strikeouts, low average, but a lot of home runs and good OPS. That’s still a solid player. It’s almost like you guys expect him to be a hall of Famer which is unfair expectations. I remember riding back from Beloit when he was down there. I told my buddy that Rosario would be more valuable player if he stuck at 2B. Well he didn’t stick but my initial valuation was a lot closer than anyone expected. He is still a fine player but he is what he is. He will have some hot streaks and we will be glad to have him. If you are expecting Barry Bonds out there, then sorry.

 

Well...... top prospect in MLB through the minors, has a movie made about him.... hype hype hype. Of course the world then expects him to be a HOFer. And why not? He was entitled as he rose and now it is time to be what he was meant to be. I don't see it as unfair. He got every opportunity, every benefit of the doubt when it came to other distractions, and the money. I don't think it is unfair to expect him to deliver at all.

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#48 AZTwin

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 05:24 PM

Well...... top prospect in MLB through the minors, has a movie made about him.... hype hype hype. Of course the world then expects him to be a HOFer. And why not? He was entitled as he rose and now it is time to be what he was meant to be. I don't see it as unfair. He got every opportunity, every benefit of the doubt when it came to other distractions, and the money. I don't think it is unfair to expect him to deliver at all.


If your baseline is that a top prospect should equal HOF then you have a long life of disappointment ahead of you. I’ve watched the kid in the minors and he’s not too far off from what I thought. Granted I thought he’d be a .240-.250 hitter so that’s disappointing but 30-40 homers is about right.

#49 rv78

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 05:36 PM

Is 5 years of NOT living up to the hype long enough to begin the doubt process? I think so.


#50 h2oface

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Posted 08 April 2021 - 06:08 PM

 

If your baseline is that a top prospect should equal HOF then you have a long life of disappointment ahead of you. I’ve watched the kid in the minors and he’s not too far off from what I thought. Granted I thought he’d be a .240-.250 hitter so that’s disappointing but 30-40 homers is about right.

 

Not my baseline. But it seems your projection. Just part of the Sano story. I don't mind disapointment, and I don't deny it, either. Makes the highs higher. When you are a great player by failing 70% of the time.... to be a baseball fan, you have to embrace a long life of disappointment.


#51 laloesch

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 06:57 AM

 

He always starts slow. 

yes that is true but he's starting REALLY slow this season.


#52 Fatbat

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 12:41 PM

When Sano heats up, the ball will be scared to cross the plate. We are winning without his bat now, we will be crushing the Yankees when Sano rakes in October. Have some patience twins fans!!!

#53 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 01:32 PM

Guys, Sano has a long enough track record of above average Hitting to be given at least a month of rope. It's only been 7 games. Even if he winds up at .230/.320/.500 with 30 HRs he's worth playing and hitting in the 6 or 7 hole. 

 

Besides, who would we replace him with? Astudillo? God, no. Fine so far this year as a utility guy playing every 3rd day. No way is he a starter on a good MLB team. Arraez? Better choice but we need him to back up 2B, 3B and play LF. Rooker? We saw what he can't do this year. Kirilloff? We saw his state of MLB readiness in ST and it was not pretty. 

 

We need to give Sano a real shot before we shoot him or ship him out of town. Not only does he have the highest potential upside by far of any of these guys, we got nobody else. 


#54 tony&rodney

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 02:20 PM

".... He was entitled as he rose ... "

 

Wow! not a personal attack but that is rather egregious. Miguel Sano signed a rich contract that took him from abject poverty to wealth when he was 16. Entitled is not the case, not close. The maneuvers made on him and his family by professionals and the blatant racism he faced as a young kid under the eye of MLB was atrocious. Sano had to prove his age by agreeing to various tests that proved his age. It is amazing he managed himself through those experiences and years in my thinking. 

 

Certainly, I hoped Sano could hit .275 - .300 with 30-40 homeruns and a .900 OPS and so on, but he is still at least average. I loved K. Vargas and his style but there is a demonstrable difference between them as others have pointed out quite effectively. 

 

Lastly, I mentioned last year in a comment that Miguel Sano is one of the only hitters in baseball that strikes fear as he stands in the batter's box. As a former pitcher myself, Sano is the only Twin I would say that about. Sometimes I think umpires feel the same way because in a very non-scientific judgment I cannot ever recall seeing a hitter have more balls called strikes against him than we see when Sano is at the plate.

 

Miguel has quite a way to go before he regains the fans and his long streaks of flailing are difficult for even the most faithful Twins fanatic. Still, we can relax and wait out his early season issues. Can't we?


#55 AZTwin

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 02:54 PM

".... He was entitled as he rose ... "

Wow! not a personal attack but that is rather egregious. Miguel Sano signed a rich contract that took him from abject poverty to wealth when he was 16. Entitled is not the case, not close. The maneuvers made on him and his family by professionals and the blatant racism he faced as a young kid under the eye of MLB was atrocious. Sano had to prove his age by agreeing to various tests that proved his age. It is amazing he managed himself through those experiences and years in my thinking.

Certainly, I hoped Sano could hit .275 - .300 with 30-40 homeruns and a .900 OPS and so on, but he is still at least average. I loved K. Vargas and his style but there is a demonstrable difference between them as others have pointed out quite effectively.

Lastly, I mentioned last year in a comment that Miguel Sano is one of the only hitters in baseball that strikes fear as he stands in the batter's box. As a former pitcher myself, Sano is the only Twin I would say that about. Sometimes I think umpires feel the same way because in a very non-scientific judgment I cannot ever recall seeing a hitter have more balls called strikes against him than we see when Sano is at the plate.

Miguel has quite a way to go before he regains the fans and his long streaks of flailing are difficult for even the most faithful Twins fanatic. Still, we can relax and wait out his early season issues. Can't we?


Thank you!!!

#56 Major League Ready

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Posted 09 April 2021 - 04:37 PM

 

Is 5 years of NOT living up to the hype long enough to begin the doubt process? I think so.

 

He actually has been at the MLB level for 6 years. I am not a real big Sano fan but I don't think you are being fair. He was very good 3 of those 6 years with a wRC+ of 125 / 137 / 149. To put this in perspective, Rosarios best year was a wRC+ of 118. Sano is definitely not consistent but he has the ability to be a real force. I would love to see him put it together in the next month. Garver looks much more like 2019 Garver and Buxton looks like an absolute BEAST!