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.624 OPS Spring

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#21 wsnydes

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 09:03 AM

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

If division titles were the ultimate goal, I'd be happier about that. But since they're not, I couldn't care less. That pace hasn't translated to even a single win in the postseason.

 

That said, I'm not worried about the bats yet. Get back to me at the end of April.

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#22 jud6312

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 09:34 AM

I generally don't like sounding the alarm bells early, and this opinion isn't based on what is or isn't happening in Spring Training, but this team feels (and has for a while) a lot like the 2011 team.

 

 


#23 spycake

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 10:08 AM

 

I generally don't like sounding the alarm bells early, and this opinion isn't based on what is or isn't happening in Spring Training, but this team feels (and has for a while) a lot like the 2011 team.

I don't know. The 2011 team had serious issues with Morneau and Nathan going into the season (and Mauer too), plus the wildcard Nishioka in the lineup. I don't really see comparables on the 2021 club right now, even if the team could potentially under-perform expectations.

 

Just for fun, I went back and looked at our 2011 spring training stats. Check out the spring ERAs for this rotation:

 

Baker 2.66

Blackburn 1.73

Duensing 2.49

Pavano 2.16

Liriano 4.82 (but the best K numbers)

Slowey 1.69

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#24 Halsey Hall

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 10:52 AM

Rowson loss was the biggest loss in years.  I said that last year, and the playoffs showed it.  Offer the job to Dave Kiriloff.

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he gone!


#25 Dodecahedron

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 12:27 PM

 

I generally don't like sounding the alarm bells early, and this opinion isn't based on what is or isn't happening in Spring Training, but this team feels (and has for a while) a lot like the 2011 team.

 

The 2011 team took a dive, but the pitchers over the next few years were far worse. The Twins could survive another 2011, and heck all teams have them, if they don't respond by fielding AAA pitchers and AA defenders for the following 5+ years.


#26 jkcarew

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 02:52 PM

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

Well, the club fell all the way to middle of the AL pack last year offensively. And then was beyond anemic in the post season. So, that in itself would spawn some speculation regarding weather 2020 was anomaly or trend. I’d say that the ‘concern’ regarding how many are swinging it this spring so far is perfectly relevant.

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#27 puckstopper1

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Posted 22 March 2021 - 05:13 PM

 

Well, the club fell all the way to middle of the AL pack last year offensively. And then was beyond anemic in the post season. So, that in itself would spawn some speculation regarding weather 2020 was anomaly or trend. I’d say that the ‘concern’ regarding how many are swinging it this spring so far is perfectly relevant.

 

I agree, JK.

 

Today's game is another example with only 3 stinking hits again today by what could be the Opening day lineup against a prospect who has a bright future but isn't expected to break camp with the big league team and 3 relievers over 8 innings.

 

Thus the concerns continue...

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#28 Drew

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 07:20 AM

I'm pretty surprised that anyone cares at all about Spring Training stats. I feel like every single year either the concerns from slow starters or the helium on someone knocking the stiches off the ball wind up largely looking really silly by April 30th. 

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#29 Dodecahedron

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 07:46 AM

 

Reading the comments on this website you would forget that the Twins have played at basically a 100 win pace for 2 years straight. 

 

Wouldn't we all take two 87-win paces for 2 years and 2 championship rings instead?

 

Zero playoff wins matters. I'm glad the Twins can beat the socks off teams in the two Central divisions, but no one will remember this. Are the Twins trying to go 41 - doughnut? That will be remembered, but aren't they already the most futile team in the history of any sport?

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#30 spycake

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 08:15 AM

 

I'm pretty surprised that anyone cares at all about Spring Training stats. I feel like every single year either the concerns from slow starters or the helium on someone knocking the stiches off the ball wind up largely looking really silly by April 30th. 

Yeah, it has been studied and the consensus is that spring training stats are not particularly predictive for players or for teams (although I've read there is some correlation in team SB numbers, but as a team strategy decision more than a performance one).


#31 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 09:39 AM

 

Wouldn't we all take two 87-win paces for 2 years and 2 championship rings instead?

 

Zero playoff wins matters. I'm glad the Twins can beat the socks off teams in the two Central divisions, but no one will remember this. Are the Twins trying to go 41 - doughnut? That will be remembered, but aren't they already the most futile team in the history of any sport?

Zero postseason wins certainly matter but the fact that it matters doesn't mean there's a correlation between the current team's hitting approach and their previous postseason failure.

 

I'm as frustrated as anyone by this postseason drought (and moreso than most, I'd wager, given how I've been running a Twins-based website for damned near the entire drought) and while we all want to see wins, there isn't an easy solution that fits a simple narrative. The Twins pitching failed in the 2019 postseason (along with their defense, woof). The Twins pitching succeeded in the 2020 postseason (despite their defense, woof again). In the end, it's five consecutive games of underperformance by some/all of the team and there's no silver bullet to be found, the Twins just need to freakin' PLAY BETTER BASEBALL.

 

How do the Twins get there? Hard to say but it's not as simple as "hit differently", especially in the context of March 2021 when games don't even matter.

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#32 spycake

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 10:50 AM

 

I've been running a Twins-based website for damned near the entire drought

Are you a superstitious person? Could your website(s) be linked to the curse? :)

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#33 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:08 AM

Yeah, it has been studied and the consensus is that spring training stats are not particularly predictive for players or for teams (although I've read there is some correlation in team SB numbers, but as a team strategy decision more than a performance one).

Sure, traditional stats, a couple of home runs this week and Kepler’s spring looks normal again. but what about the new metrics? Does Kepler’s bat speed / exit velocity / spray chart compare with prior spring trainings? Are those worth looking at?
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#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:13 AM

 

Are you a superstitious person? Could your website(s) be linked to the curse? :)

I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.


#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:14 AM

 

Sure, traditional stats, a couple of home runs this week and Kepler’s spring looks normal again. but what about the new metrics? Does Kepler’s bat speed / exit velocity / spray chart compare with prior spring trainings? Are those worth looking at?

I think those are the kind of things the Twins are looking at, amongst other things.

 

Does the public have access to that stuff for ST yet? I haven't looked into it.

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#36 wsnydes

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:21 AM

 

I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.

Perhaps you inadvertently offended the baseball Gods and the losing streak is just their way of smiting you for the long haul?

 

They are a fickle bunch, the Gods...

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#37 Dodecahedron

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:40 AM

 

Zero postseason wins certainly matter but the fact that it matters doesn't mean there's a correlation between the current team's hitting approach and their previous postseason failure.

 

OK, but I never made the correlation between their hitting approach and their postseason woes. Honestly, I think the problem is in their heads. Their hitting approach has nothing to do with the streak.

 

The Rams teams in the 70s always fell in the playoffs to the Vikings. The Astros teams in the 90s always fell to the Braves. The Twins have a similar problem with another team -- a team that other teams in the league are able to beat.

 

We also need to level-set a bit on 2020. The Twins were cooked before the playoffs began. We can overthink that and focus on their 2020 playoff losses, but the Twins were done before those games even started. Again, I think the problem there was in their heads, and in 2020's case, who could blame them?

 

The point is -- 100-win seasons are not meaningful. Right now, the only metric that the world at large knows and will remember about the Twins is their playoff losing streak. 

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#38 spycake

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:54 AM

 

I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.

But they also won a playoff game in 2004, so the "sweep streak" rests solely on your shoulders!

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#39 Danchat

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 11:58 AM

I'm pretty surprised that anyone cares at all about Spring Training stats. I feel like every single year either the concerns from slow starters or the helium on someone knocking the stiches off the ball wind up largely looking really silly by April 30th.

Reminds me of when Robbie Grossman started out hitting .050 in spring training or something, then hit .300 through April and May. Yeah, I have concerns about a few hitters, but we’ll have forgotten all of this banter in a month’s time.
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#40 spycake

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Posted 23 March 2021 - 12:16 PM

 

Sure, traditional stats, a couple of home runs this week and Kepler’s spring looks normal again. but what about the new metrics? Does Kepler’s bat speed / exit velocity / spray chart compare with prior spring trainings? Are those worth looking at?

 

 

I think those are the kind of things the Twins are looking at, amongst other things.

 

Does the public have access to that stuff for ST yet? I haven't looked into it.

 

I just went to the Statcast site and saw some spring training games, but when I did a search it returned this warning at the top:

 

Only games played in the spring homes for these teams will return data: ARI, COL, DET, MIA, MIN, NYM, NYY, PHI, PIT, STL, TOR.

 

So yes, there is some public data, but it's limited.

 

There have been some write-ups using spring data from around the league. Broxton gets mentioned in this article:

https://fantasy.fang...velocity-highs/

 

Former Twin prospect Akil Baddoo gets mentioned in this one too:

https://www.mlb.com/...spring-training