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Over/Under 2021 Preview: Eddie Rosario

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 09:09 AM

The SB Nation site, Let's Go Tribe, they're doing some over-unders for their players. Today they discuss Eddie Rosario. I mainly just liked their Tweet about it...

 

 

https://www.letsgotribe.com/2021/2/26/22301007/over-under-2021-preview-eddie-rosario

 

 

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#2 Vanimal46

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 09:58 AM

Not sure how much his defense will drag down his fWAR, but he's probably still a 2 WAR player. I'll still hope for the best, except the games he plays against the Twins. 

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#3 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 10:52 AM

I'll take the over. His defensive stats were dragged down by playing next to Buxton but he should be ok in Cleveland. I think he'll have his best offensive season there and be an all-star. 

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#4 big dog

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 11:15 AM

Being able to hit in Cleveland without having to do it facing Cleveland pitching will certainly be a boost, too. Not sure how much protection he's going to get in the lineup, though. Easy career-record for walks, if he's willing to take them.

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#5 baul0010

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 11:54 AM

 

Being able to hit in Cleveland without having to do it facing Cleveland pitching will certainly be a boost, too. Not sure how much protection he's going to get in the lineup, though. Easy career-record for walks, if he's willing to take them.

 

I don't think it's a matter of being willing.If he couldn't walk with the protection the Twins lineup gave him he certainly won't having no protection in Cleveland's lineup.I hope Eddie does well, but why would a pitcher throw him a strike.Besides Eddie swinging at everything outside the zone, even if he walks, pitchers won't feel threatened with anyone coming up behind him.Unless he's hitting in front of Ramirez, but I feel like Eddie will be hitting behind Jose.


#6 Doctor Gast

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 12:43 PM

Being able to hit in Cleveland without having to do it facing Cleveland pitching will certainly be a boost, too. Not sure how much protection he's going to get in the lineup, though. Easy career-record for walks, if he's willing to take them.


I was thinking the same thing Big Dog. He wouldn't be facing CLE pitchers so I give him an over. I was afraid that he might end up there.

#7 Dodecahedron

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 02:16 PM

 

I don't think it's a matter of being willing.If he couldn't walk with the protection the Twins lineup gave him he certainly won't having no protection in Cleveland's lineup.I hope Eddie does well, but why would a pitcher throw him a strike.Besides Eddie swinging at everything outside the zone, even if he walks, pitchers won't feel threatened with anyone coming up behind him.Unless he's hitting in front of Ramirez, but I feel like Eddie will be hitting behind Jose.

 

Eddie was 3rd on the team last year in walks, and he has proven he can hit the ball and get on base whether the pitchers throw him strikes or not.

 

Eddie really is not the guy who a pitcher can pitch around and hope for a positive result. He can hit pitches in the dirt, he can hit pitches over his head. I would love to know how opposing catchers and coaches recommend how to pitch to him. It's probably just to throw him changeups and pray the ball stays in the infield when he makes contact.


#8 AceWrigley

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 02:35 PM

Throw it right down the pipe, he'll never expect it.:)

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#9 dbminn

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 02:42 PM

Eddie's fWAR the past four years:

 

2017 - 2.6

2018 - 3.4

2019 - 1.2

2020 - 2.4 adjusted for a 162-game season 0.9*(162/60)

 

Most recent season above 1.8 WAR, 4-season average = 2.45 WAR, 3 of 4 seasons 2.4 or above.

 

I'll take the over.

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#10 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 02:59 PM

 

Eddie was 3rd on the team last year in walks, and he has proven he can hit the ball and get on base whether the pitchers throw him strikes or not.

 

Eddie really is not the guy who a pitcher can pitch around and hope for a positive result. He can hit pitches in the dirt, he can hit pitches over his head. I would love to know how opposing catchers and coaches recommend how to pitch to him. It's probably just to throw him changeups and pray the ball stays in the infield when he makes contact.

 

Yes, Eddie was third in walks last year, and raised his bb% to a new career high, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

 

In 2019, Eddie swung at 59.1% of pitches while in 2020, he cut that down to 51.7%.The problem is that while Eddie did cut his chase rate (swung at 46.3% of pitches outside the zone in 2019, compared to "only" 42.6% in 2020), he even more dramatically cut the rate at which he swung at pitches inside the zone (80.4% in 2019, 69% in 2020).The number of pitches he saw in the zone also decreased from 37.6% to 34.3%, which is not enough to explain the surge in walks (Eddie saw 3.51 pitches/PA in 2019, compared to 3.58 in 2020--this means he saw 2.2 out of zone pitches/PA in 2019, compared to 2.4 out of zone pitches/PA in 2020.Essentially, Eddie saw one more ball per game, assuming he batted 5 times).

 

Thus, Eddie's increased walks came not from refusing to swing at the slop pitchers threw him, it came from pointedly deciding not to swing at pitches inside the zone--the exact pitches he should be swinging at.Given the cratering of his hard hit rate (30.3%, 152 out of 203 players with more than 150 PA's last year), and the sharp increase in his soft contact rate (21.3%, 24th highest of those same 203 players), Eddie is certainly on his way to being cooked.Will he have stretches where he's a house on fire?Absolutely.But those will probably be followed by stretches where he doesn't get on base even 30% of the time, and hits for not much power.

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#11 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 03:02 PM

 

I'll take the over. His defensive stats were dragged down by playing next to Buxton but he should be ok in Cleveland. I think he'll have his best offensive season there and be an all-star. 

 

To clarify, you're saying Eddie's defense suffered due to playing next to one of the 2-3 best defensive center fielders in the game?Eddie has not had a season fangraphs rated as positive defensively since he was a 23 year old rookie in 2015.


#12 dex8425

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 03:19 PM

 

Eddie was 3rd on the team last year in walks, and he has proven he can hit the ball and get on base whether the pitchers throw him strikes or not.

 

Eddie really is not the guy who a pitcher can pitch around and hope for a positive result. He can hit pitches in the dirt, he can hit pitches over his head. I would love to know how opposing catchers and coaches recommend how to pitch to him. It's probably just to throw him changeups and pray the ball stays in the infield when he makes contact.

I could tell you. His first pitch swing rate is very high- over 55%. If you throw heater 0-0, he will swing and probably burn you. He crushes 4 seamers and sinkers on inner half. His ops on breaking balls is lower, as it is for most hitters. Throw breaking balls low and away. If using the heater, don't throw it for a strike, use to change eye angle only and keep it away. He doesn't want to walk and will chase out of zone pitches even if ahead in the count. 


#13 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 03:24 PM

Over

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#14 big dog

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 05:52 PM

 

I don't think it's a matter of being willing.If he couldn't walk with the protection the Twins lineup gave him he certainly won't having no protection in Cleveland's lineup.I hope Eddie does well, but why would a pitcher throw him a strike.Besides Eddie swinging at everything outside the zone, even if he walks, pitchers won't feel threatened with anyone coming up behind him.Unless he's hitting in front of Ramirez, but I feel like Eddie will be hitting behind Jose.

Agreed, that was actually my point. They are not going to be afraid to walk him, and he won't take the walk, so the chance for wild swinging strikes if off the charts, I think.


#15 The Wise One

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 05:59 PM

 

I'll take the over. His defensive stats were dragged down by playing next to Buxton but he should be ok in Cleveland. I think he'll have his best offensive season there and be an all-star. 

His putouts and chances really did not go up in 2018 when Buxton hardly played. His total zone on Baseball Reference looks worse when Buxton in 2018 was mostly not playing.Fangraphs DRS and UZR 150 liked his fielding that year. It all sounds kind of guesswork if Buxton really cost him or not. The question becomes how many chances does it take for defensive statistics to normalize?


#16 KGB

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 07:38 PM

To clarify, you're saying Eddie's defense suffered due to playing next to one of the 2-3 best defensive center fielders in the game?Eddie has not had a season fangraphs rated as positive defensively since he was a 23 year old rookie in 2015.


Robbie Grossman went from a horrible fielder to a Gold Glove finalists in one year after leaving Minnesota. Eddie has all the tools to be a good fielder, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn it around.

#17 Otwins

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 08:23 PM

Over- easily.It will help Eddie to play for Francona who will not let him continually do the over aggressive (some say stupid) stuff.I think he has his best year ever.

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#18 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 26 February 2021 - 08:35 PM

 

Robbie Grossman went from a horrible fielder to a Gold Glove finalists in one year after leaving Minnesota. Eddie has all the tools to be a good fielder, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn it around.

 

Max Kepler also plays next to Buxton, and his defense is very good.Why precisely would playing next to a great fielder make someone a worse fielder?If the idea is that the metrics are worse because they get fewer chances, than in reality the bad fielding player didn't magically become a better fielder, they just got to make more plays.

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#19 Dodecahedron

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Posted 02 March 2021 - 11:13 AM

 

I could tell you. His first pitch swing rate is very high- over 55%. If you throw heater 0-0, he will swing and probably burn you. He crushes 4 seamers and sinkers on inner half. His ops on breaking balls is lower, as it is for most hitters. Throw breaking balls low and away. If using the heater, don't throw it for a strike, use to change eye angle only and keep it away. He doesn't want to walk and will chase out of zone pitches even if ahead in the count. 

 

I'm OK with that. Nothing bothered me more than watching Mientkiewicz taking every first pitch, no matter what, every time. 

It's like the old saying -- if you never ask, the answer is always no. If you don't swing, you'll never get the hit. Rosario had results that would make many players envious.  

 

Rosario hits more pitches that were out of the zone than any player should. 


#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 March 2021 - 01:37 PM

Robbie Grossman went from a horrible fielder to a Gold Glove finalists in one year after leaving Minnesota. Eddie has all the tools to be a good fielder, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn it around.

Correction: Robbie Grossman had one terrible, awful season and has been mostly okay outside of that single season.

I have no idea why Robbie was so bad in that one season but it’s very apparent that terrible season was the outlier, not the other way around.

Grossman was a slightly net positive fielder by most metrics in his final season with the Twins.
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