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Beat the Rush: Fire Gardy and Terry Ryan Now!

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#91 drjim

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 06:41 PM

I thought it was pretty clear that the argument of "we had bad draft position" is a poor excuse for the farm system dipping. And contrary to the claims of some here, it clearly was dipping at the time Smith took over the role.

Again, Smith made A LOT of mistakes. But he also oversaw the drafting, signing, or developing of most of our current top 10 prospects which, by the way, makes this farm system one of the top 3-5 in the league at this point. And I'm not convinced that Ryan's track record would have been as positive if he was in charge in that stretch.

Ryan has plenty of positives he brings back to the organization, but let's not pretend Smith's aggressiveness had no payoffs. We may be about to reap those rewards.


If the counter argument to low draft choices is that other teams are able to get good players later in the draft as evidence that is a poor example. The Twins have done that as well.

I would suggest the main reasons were (in no particular order): lower draft choices, few comp picks, minimal established player for prospect trades (because they were usually competing), lower budgets on international signings, general reluctance to go over slot in the draft. It is interesting that once Target Field started getting constructed and the promise of future revenues was secure that the last two became less of an issue and the farm system started to improve.

Perhaps the better lesson is that Terry Ryan and co. did OK as a small market team in the early part of the 2000s and that once the revenues of Target Field started to come in it allowed them to compete on more levels. There is more to Target Field than just major league payroll.
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#92 deanlambrecht

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 06:50 PM

First, I want to welcome you to Twins Daily. We love fans who are passionate, so you should be able to fit in here.

Please note, however, that everyone benefits when we make an effort keep the tone at a moderate level.

Here is an example of how you might have made your point without causing an uproar:

"I don't understand why the Twins don't fire Gardenhire and Ryan now, and bring in Molitor to put the team on the right track. We needed pitching and Ryan did not provide the level of pitchers that would make the Twins competitive. Another 100 losses seems possible this year. Why are the Twins keeping these guys?"

The substance of your post could be basically the same, but you would be inviting discussion and debate instead of creating the impression that you are inviting argument or just venting your anger.

Again, welcome to TD, and please give some thought to how much more respect you will receive if you make the effort to say things in a way that invites debate, not argument.


This, exactly.

#93 TheLeviathan

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 06:54 PM

Perhaps the better lesson is that Terry Ryan and co. did OK as a small market team in the early part of the 2000s and that once the revenues of Target Field started to come in it allowed them to compete on more levels. There is more to Target Field than just major league payroll.


I'm not suggesting I know why the tail-end of Ryan's run was such a failure for the farm system. I will suggest that pinning it on picking later in the draft was baseless. As you said, lots of teams have success picking lower in the order - including Terry Ryan and the Twins.

#94 Dilligaf69

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 06:59 PM

seriously:

Ronnie's w-l record with the twins is worse than chilly's record with the vikes. Seriously. And i am not talking post-season. Just regular season. One of these two became the manager of the millennium ™ because a totally sucky team (and tk was at the helm when the turn happened in 2000) happened to be mediocre while he was at the helm (other than the last 2 seasons, in which the team sucked more than it ever did in 2 seasons in a row) while the other one was ran out of town because a mediocre team could not make it to the superbowl.

The last time the twins won was in 1991. Then 'roid a's happened, strike in 94 happened and tr happened. And the team hasn't won for 21 years

gee... How unspeakable to ask for the removal of the people who are ru(i)nning this team...


(and yeah, it is molitor and not moliter or whatever the op said up there, but what matters more is that tr said that this hall of famer is not "a good fit" to be a coach for this team, while he got steinbach to be a bench coach after he coached his son's little league team to a championship... Really.)




huh???

#95 Dilligaf69

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 07:00 PM

oh and I'm not sure it's Gardy's fault for the lack of starting pitching...

#96 TheLeviathan

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 07:05 PM

Poor draft position isn't the sole reason for the farm system dipping. And a lot of factors have gone into the rise as well. I don't know anyone who believes that our draft position is the sole factor. I can find commenters on here who either ignore it as a factor or who minimize it as a factor without putting any effort into supporting their opinion with facts.


First, Ryan is generally getting majority credit for his successes so it only makes sense to give Smith the same. Hell, if you're going to give Smith full blame for his mistakes, full credit only makes sense too.

Second, you posted a long, multi-paragraph rant primarily focused on not having a top ten pick as being the reason for Ryan allowing the farm to dip. You said that the Twins scouting department is large....as a reason to bash Smith but promote how great Ryan is? You suggested that only drafting in the top 10 is how the Twins build farm success, yet I'd suggest you look at BA's top 10 Twins prospects and see how (and when) most of them were acquired. You also cited two recent signings by Ryan in a discussion about what he did 5 years ago that hurt the farm.

This is not Ryan bashing. I like Ryan, but that shouldn't preclude a tip of the hat to Smith. It certainly shouldn't require us to excuse poor drafting with draft position. It wasn't Ryan's finest time, I think he's even said as much when he briefly retired from the role. (Burnout)

Edited by TheLeviathan, 21 February 2013 - 07:07 PM.


#97 The Wise One

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 07:15 PM

When you all want to critize/praise the people for the job of drafting, try knowing who the scouting director is. The draft is his job.
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#98 mike wants wins

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 07:18 PM

i would not fire either right now.

#99 johnnydakota

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:13 PM

So the "fact" that Liriano was going to get hurt (more than two and a half years later) is part of the trade, but AJ being under contract for only one year was a big surprise to both sides? I just don't get that.


Just remember Cdog , that Terry siad the key player of the trade was Boof....Liriano was forced on us....is 1 of the reasons i refer to this trade as Ryans lucky trade, not something to build an 18 year career on to me

#100 johnnydakota

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:20 PM

If the counter argument to low draft choices is that other teams are able to get good players later in the draft as evidence that is a poor example. The Twins have done that as well.

I would suggest the main reasons were (in no particular order): lower draft choices, few comp picks, minimal established player for prospect trades (because they were usually competing), lower budgets on international signings, general reluctance to go over slot in the draft. It is interesting that once Target Field started getting constructed and the promise of future revenues was secure that the last two became less of an issue and the farm system started to improve.

Perhaps the better lesson is that Terry Ryan and co. did OK as a small market team in the early part of the 2000s and that once the revenues of Target Field started to come in it allowed them to compete on more levels. There is more to Target Field than just major league payroll.


Ok go through and name all the players drafted under Mr. Ryan who have contributed to the twins mlb team? im guessing over 700 drafted and another 300 non drafted signees and how many have made it to the show/ and out of that number how many have made a serous impact? im guessing 40 made it to the show and 12 have made impacts.me im to lazy to look it up , but i betcha im not far off with these numbers

#101 old nurse

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:30 PM

Ok go through and name all the players drafted under Mr. Ryan who have contributed to the twins mlb team? im guessing over 700 drafted and another 300 non drafted signees and how many have made it to the show/ and out of that number how many have made a serous impact? im guessing 40 made it to the show and 12 have made impacts.me im to lazy to look it up , but i betcha im not far off with these numbers


To the long lost son of my thankfully long dead mother in law, try for a change to have a fact. If you are going to criticize the percentages of draftees playing then also have a clue about what the other teams success rate is. More half truthes out of people. Mkake up stats and their significance. Besides, it is the scouting director, not Ryan that makes the selections. Deron Johnson has been on the job as director since 2007

Edited by old nurse, 21 February 2013 - 08:32 PM.


#102 drjim

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 10:00 PM

Ok go through and name all the players drafted under Mr. Ryan who have contributed to the twins mlb team? im guessing over 700 drafted and another 300 non drafted signees and how many have made it to the show/ and out of that number how many have made a serous impact? im guessing 40 made it to the show and 12 have made impacts.me im to lazy to look it up , but i betcha im not far off with these numbers


I agree that a study like this would require some context of how other teams did in their draft.

What is actually more interesting to me is to look at who was drafted in the 10-15 picks immediately following a Twins draft pick and to see who they could have had instead. I don't want to go back and list all the names, but my general feeling is that the Twins do an acceptable job in this regard. There are obviously guys they could have drafted instead, but there are rarely large misses with large amounts of players that were clearly better. It truly is amazing what the miss rate is for draft picks once you get into the second half of the first round. However, once Hicks and Gibson make their debuts this year the only first round pick between 2000-2009 that won't make the majors in some capacity will be Matt Moses from 2003, and most of those picks will actually be quite productive. This hasn't necessarily led to high rankings in prospect lists, but it is a pretty impressive performance overall.
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#103 drjim

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 10:02 PM

I'm not suggesting I know why the tail-end of Ryan's run was such a failure for the farm system. I will suggest that pinning it on picking later in the draft was baseless. As you said, lots of teams have success picking lower in the order - including Terry Ryan and the Twins.


I'll agree with this and my initial response was unnecessarily snarky. It is baseless to pin it solely on drafting later in the first round. There were several other factors that contributed.
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#104 birdwatcher

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 10:48 PM

Well. Leviathan, I just had to chuckle at your last response to my post about the effect of having a lower draft order. I couldn't make any sense of it, sorry. I think we're actually more in agreement than you comprehend about the role of GM's in their organization's draft. I don't give Ryan or Smith much credit OR blame for the draft, because no one-none of the commenters here- has ever demonstrated that the GMs have influenced the draft enough to desrve blame or credit.

For those of you who still insist that it's baseless to contend that a consistently lower draft order will likely lower the quality of a farm system: where is your proof? Pull out the rosters for last year's All Star game. Looking at ONLY the draftees and not international signees, add up the percentages of the All Stars who were 1st rounders #1-10, 1st rounders #11-20, and 1st rounders #21-30. Then add up the players picked in subsequent rounds. After you do that, come on back and argue that there's no connection between the draft order and the quality of your farm system, and eventually of course your MLB roster.

#105 mike wants wins

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 08:57 AM

I have never claimed there is no correlation. I have stated that if your strategy is to ignore free agency, that you are required to be better than other teams at drafting and developing, otherwise your strategy will not work. So, if Ryan chooses that strategy, he needs to be held to a higher standard at buuilding the minors, whether that is international signings, drafts, or trades. I also have stated many times here that the scouting director makes the picks, but I have also stated that the GM hires the scouting director, and is ultimately responsible for the quality of the system. If that system consistently fails to produce players, something has to change.

I have also said repeatedly that the quality of the system dropped off significantly the last few years under Ryan, and that is why there were insufficient young, good players on the roster the last few years.

Btw, I never asked for all stars.....I'd like a MIFer that contributes at a median level for more than 1 year. I'd like a semblance of a pitching staff.

And, if it is so much easier to draft well at the top of the draft, why give credit to the scouts or GM at all for doing so? The trick is being good at something others are not good at, that's how you win.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#106 Jerr

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 09:05 AM

Great job on the monitors part, for saving a potential thrash thread and getting some good discussion out of it!

#107 TheLeviathan

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 03:58 PM

For those of you who still insist that it's baseless to contend that a consistently lower draft order will likely lower the quality of a farm system: where is your proof? Pull out the rosters for last year's All Star game. Looking at ONLY the draftees and not international signees, add up the percentages of the All Stars who were 1st rounders #1-10, 1st rounders #11-20, and 1st rounders #21-30. Then add up the players picked in subsequent rounds. After you do that, come on back and argue that there's no connection between the draft order and the quality of your farm system, and eventually of course your MLB roster.


Are you providing the same? It's disingenuous to provide a couple names and say your position of the debate is any more settled than the opposing view. I always bristle at the demand for more facts than a poster has already provided themselves.

Personally, I think draft position matters infinitely less than quality scouting. Your post was a mish-mash of bizarre excuses. If you don't feel Ryan is mostly accountable to the dip in our farm, why post a bunch of excuses for him? A simple "well that's not all on Ryan" would've sufficed.

#108 Highabove

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 06:17 PM

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st

The Twins along with the rest of Baseball, had a shot at 4/5th of this Premiere Rotation. Scouting!!!!

Edited by Highabove, 22 February 2013 - 06:26 PM.


#109 Thrylos

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 06:33 PM

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st

The Twins along with the rest of Baseball, had a shot at 4/5th of this Premiere Rotation. Scouting!!!!


It is not only scouting... it is player development in the minors as well. Someone can have incredible ability but if he has flaws that do not get fixed early and often (Shooter Hunt anyone) forget about it. Luck too. Good medical stuff as well. Identifying talent and pushing it up the ladder fast. Lots of factors.
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#110 old nurse

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 07:07 PM

I agree that a study like this would require some context of how other teams did in their draft.

What is actually more interesting to me is to look at who was drafted in the 10-15 picks immediately following a Twins draft pick and to see who they could have had instead. I don't want to go back and list all the names, but my general feeling is that the Twins do an acceptable job in this regard. There are obviously guys they could have drafted instead, but there are rarely large misses with large amounts of players that were clearly better. It truly is amazing what the miss rate is for draft picks once you get into the second half of the first round. However, once Hicks and Gibson make their debuts this year the only first round pick between 2000-2009 that won't make the majors in some capacity will be Matt Moses from 2003, and most of those picks will actually be quite productive. This hasn't necessarily led to high rankings in prospect lists, but it is a pretty impressive performance overall.


Coulda woluda shoulda game.
Same position misses on selections
2004 Twins, Matt Fox, next selection Gio Gonzales A few selections later they selected Jay Rainville Next selection Hudson Street
2005 they took Hank Sanchez. a 1B. Couple selections later, Jed Lowrie
2001 second rounder Scott Tylerl, 25 picks later, Dan Haren
2003 Matt Moses. Next player selected that turned out was a few selections later, Chad Billingsly.

I supose in 2000 with Adam Johnson you could say Chas Utley, but that was 13 picks later, with a lot of bad inbetween

#111 johnnydakota

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 07:22 PM

To the long lost son of my thankfully long dead mother in law, try for a change to have a fact. If you are going to criticize the percentages of draftees playing then also have a clue about what the other teams success rate is. More half truthes out of people. Mkake up stats and their significance. Besides, it is the scouting director, not Ryan that makes the selections. Deron Johnson has been on the job as director since 2007


And may i ask who hires and fires the scouting director? Even though the scouting director recomends player x , is it not Mr. Ryan who has the final say? If the draft has nothing to do with Terry fine, me bad ,Then i sugest we fire who ever is in charge, and try to pry away from Tampa and St. Louis a couple assistant scouting directors.

#112 The Wise One

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 11:02 PM

And may i ask who hires and fires the scouting director? Even though the scouting director recomends player x , is it not Mr. Ryan who has the final say? If the draft has nothing to do with Terry fine, me bad ,Then i sugest we fire who ever is in charge, and try to pry away from Tampa and St. Louis a couple assistant scouting directors.


Ryan publically stated that he has very little to do with the draft. Deron Johnson is the scouting director. He can only be as good as the scouts are good at evaluating talent. At this point there was nothing wrong with last few year's draft. multiple players are working their way up the system.

Edited by The Wise One, 22 February 2013 - 11:06 PM.


#113 TheLeviathan

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 11:04 PM

Ryan publically stated that he has very little to do with the draft. Deron Johnson is the scouting director. He can only be as good as the scouts are good at evaluating talent.


One important thing to note is that while this may be true, it's undeniable that when Smith took over the Twin's drafting philosophy changed. So why or how that happened, I doubt that was coincidental. Smith may not have been making the choices, but he may have been dictating preferences.

#114 The Wise One

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 11:09 PM

One important thing to note is that while this may be true, it's undeniable that when Smith took over the Twin's drafting philosophy changed. So why or how that happened, I doubt that was coincidental. Smith may not have been making the choices, but he may have been dictating preferences.

Deron took over about the time Ryan left. As he has gained experience, one would expect the philosophies to change

#115 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 07:49 AM

Deron took over about the time Ryan left. As he has gained experience, one would expect the philosophies to change


Then perhaps Smith should get credit for giving him that job. Sounds like he's the guy that wanted Deron there. Could be that Smith was familiar with what Deron did well and wanted to shift our drafting strategy. In which case I give a big tip of the cap to Deron and a tip of the cap to Smith for putting the right guy in that role.

#116 drjim

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 09:11 AM

Coulda woluda shoulda game.
Same position misses on selections
2004 Twins, Matt Fox, next selection Gio Gonzales A few selections later they selected Jay Rainville Next selection Hudson Street
2005 they took Hank Sanchez. a 1B. Couple selections later, Jed Lowrie
2001 second rounder Scott Tylerl, 25 picks later, Dan Haren
2003 Matt Moses. Next player selected that turned out was a few selections later, Chad Billingsly.

I supose in 2000 with Adam Johnson you could say Chas Utley, but that was 13 picks later, with a lot of bad inbetween


Yes, there are always misses. The Revere pick, though panned at the time, actually ended up as a pretty good value relative to other picks in the area. Of course, about 15-20 picks later the Marlins took Gioncarlo Stanton...
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#117 Riverbrian

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 12:48 PM

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st

The Twins along with the rest of Baseball, had a shot at 4/5th of this Premiere Rotation. Scouting!!!!


I agree that Tampa Bay has done a great job in the draft... However in Fairness:

In 2005: Hellickson RHP was drafted in the 4th Round out of High School Des Moines Iowa.

Also in 2005: Wade Townshend RHP was drafted in the 1st round out of Rice University (8th overall)... Chris Mason RHP was drafted in the 2nd round out of the University of North Carolina and Bryan Morris RHP was drafted in the 3rd Round out of High School in Tennessee and he went unsigned.

In fairness... I'm just pointing out that they missed on the first three.

In 2006: Alex Cobb RHP was drafted in the 4th Round out of High School Vero Beach Florida.

Also in 2006: Evan Longoria was selected in the 1st round(3rd Overall) out of Long Beach State... Josh Butler RHP was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of San Diego... Nicholas Fuller RHP was drafted in the third round out of High School in Georgia and he was unsigned.

In 2007: David Price LHP was drafted in the 1st round and Matt Moore LHP was drafted in the 8th round...

Also in 2007: In between those picks... 2nd round Will Kline RHP, 3rd round Nick Bernase RHP, 4th round David Newmann LHP, 5th round Dustin Beill OF, 6th Round Emeel Salem OF and 7th Round Reid Fronk 3B.

In 2000: James Shields was drafted in the 16th round... Rocco Baldelli was drafted by the Devil Rays in the 1st round... The 11 Players drafted between those two players. Only one reached the Major Leagues... That one player was LHP Mark Malaska who threw for a total of 36 MLB Innings. They missed on everyone else.

I agree the Rays have done a great job... Just wanted to point out that they miss and miss a lot just like the Twins do.

#118 old nurse

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 01:16 PM

Then perhaps Smith should get credit for giving him that job. Sounds like he's the guy that wanted Deron there. Could be that Smith was familiar with what Deron did well and wanted to shift our drafting strategy. In which case I give a big tip of the cap to Deron and a tip of the cap to Smith for putting the right guy in that role.


You are probably wrong on your assessment since the promotion of Johnson came at the same time as Radcliff and Smith were promoted.
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#119 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 04:22 PM

You are probably wrong on your assessment since the promotion of Johnson came at the same time as Radcliff and Smith were promoted.
http://minnesota.twi...t=.jsp&c_id=min


Fair enough, though the same article also quotes Smith as overseeing the scouting department. Any way you shake it, Ryan should get no more or less credit than Smith for what the farm looks like. Ryan has generally gotten a lot of credit (deserved in my opinion) for turning the farm system around in the mid to late 90s. It also suffered horribly towards the end of his run. I just think holding the same standard with another GM is fair. I don't think that's going out on a limb.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 23 February 2013 - 04:26 PM.


#120 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 09:08 PM

Perhaps people should look at how many players the Twins have gotten to the majors as compared to other teams. Seems to me that the Twins have been on the higher side of that number in recent years.

That Tampa bay draft shows a ton about how difficult identifying talent can be. TB passed up on James Shields 15 times. Hellickson and Cobb 3 times, etc. These guys weren't sure things. They were toolsy highschoolers who were incredibly raw and needed work. Perhaps Tampa knows something about developing pitchers that others do not. That seems quite possible. For that matter Pujols was passed up by every team more than once.

Drafting good players is hardly an exact science. When teams are thrilled to get more than 2 major leaguers from a draft class, I find it strange that fans are railing on the organization with expectations that they should have a dozen or something silly like that. If this was a sure thing, Pujols would have went first overall.