Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

How Long Can the Twins Keep Their Window of Opportunity Open?

josh donaldson byron buxton jose berrios alex kirilloff royce lewis
  • Please log in to reply
57 replies to this topic

#41 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,639 posts

Posted 26 February 2021 - 08:36 AM

 

Actually you are correct. I would not say my views on that subject are farsighted at all. They are absolutely shortsighted for sure. I happpen to have an old friend who was so excited for that 2018 season that he scraped and scrimped to be able to afford a season ticket package at Target Field. Can you imagine his dismay to realize the last 60-65 games of that season were deemed unimportant to the fans by the front office. Sometimes people have other reasons to be upset at their team or their team's front office decisions. I do get your point clearly. If i had the motivation to become the next junior general manager i would look at in a different light. I am only reminiscing about that fiasco of the 2018 season before i declare Derek Falvey the greatest team executive in Twins history

 

Try looking at it from a slightly different angle. The 2018 team was not going to be a contender with or without any of the players that were traded. By trading them there is a very good chance a player or players received in the trade will provide a great fan experience for all of us for 6+ years. What if Duran turns into a front of the rotation starter? How much fun would that be for 6+ years? We can also look at it knowing these additions could elevate the team and contribute to a playoff run. Might all go to crap but acquiring these players has a much better chance of producing winning baseball than keeping those free agents on until the end of 2018.

  • Channing1964 likes this

#42 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 26 February 2021 - 09:42 PM

Try looking at it from a slightly different angle. The 2018 team was not going to be a contender with or without any of the players that were traded. By trading them there is a very good chance a player or players received in the trade will provide a great fan experience for all of us for 6+ years. What if Duran turns into a front of the rotation starter? How much fun would that be for 6+ years? We can also look at it knowing these additions could elevate the team and contribute to a playoff run. Might all go to crap but acquiring these players has a much better chance of producing winning baseball than keeping those free agents on until the end of 2018.

sure, of course you are right. Im really not trying to dwell on 2018...i am glad its over. I just think its not a bad idea to have a voice of reason to realize that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don't walk on water. Sometimes the way they treat people really bothers me. Whats wrong with publicly saying that a player like Rosario, who has spent his whole career in Minnesota, just isnt in the plan anymore? I know why they did it, I know how they did it, I just wish they could have done it maybe a little "classier" It leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I dont feel like thats what we should be all about. I mean if your team doesn't represent the values and traditions of the community then what does it represent? We could just as well be Marlin fans or Mariner fans. I think our FO is doing a very nice job. I reserve the right to hold them to the same standards i held every Twins management team all my life. If you want winners to play for you, then you have to be a winner in how you treat the players, the fans, the media, and yourself.

#43 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 26 February 2021 - 10:22 PM

The reason you and many other fans find themselves at odds with the front office is that your evaluation is from a micro perspective. The front office takes a more macro approach. Your approach is that they COULD spend $10M on Rosario if the elected to do so. Their approach is that $10M spent on Rooker or Cave + Simmons is a considerably better roster. Again, they are also looking past this year. How do you get better if you don’t develop players at the ML level?
 
I also have a different fan perspective. Rosario was definitely one of my favorite Twins. Now, I don’t care to watch the high percentage of absolutely horrible ABs and mistakes in the field. I would rather watch one of the young guys develop into a player we can enjoy for several years.
 
Bottom line is that fans with a macro view or a decidedly short-term focus are always going to be at odds with the front office. It’s not their fault for acting in the best interest of the team.

we all have our favorite players. I am not going to apologize for the fact that Rosario happens to be one of mine. To sit there and say theoney spent on Simmons made Risario unaffordable is a joke right? Without all the payroll numbers in front of me I would be willing to bet the payroll is at least 10 million under the projected 140 million dollar payroll that we are all led to believe. What's done is done. Why are we arguing anout Rosario any more? A lot of you got what you wanted when they non tendered him. He isnt coming back(except for the 19 times a year he torments Wes Johnson

#44 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 26 February 2021 - 10:25 PM

one playoff game that we lost with Kiriloff in a different position is not going to make anyone forget Eddie Rosario. This is a gamble what they are doing... I hope i dont have to say I told you so

#45 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 26 February 2021 - 10:35 PM

The reason you and many other fans find themselves at odds with the front office is that your evaluation is from a micro perspective. The front office takes a more macro approach. Your approach is that they COULD spend $10M on Rosario if the elected to do so. Their approach is that $10M spent on Rooker or Cave + Simmons is a considerably better roster. Again, they are also looking past this year. How do you get better if you don’t develop players at the ML level?
 
I also have a different fan perspective. Rosario was definitely one of my favorite Twins. Now, I don’t care to watch the high percentage of absolutely horrible ABs and mistakes in the field. I would rather watch one of the young guys develop into a player we can enjoy for several years.
 
Bottom line is that fans with a macro view or a decidedly short-term focus are always going to be at odds with the front office. It’s not their fault for acting in the best interest of the team.

Again I am sure Mr. Pohlads opinion of the front office is mostly positive...I just think as Minnesotans, and fans of the team we have a right to scrutinize every decision they make. I am not calling for their dismissal, only objectively evaluating some of their moves. For example, I love Josh Donaldson as a player and as a man, but i would never have given him a 4 year deal at this stage of his career. I suppose we could argue about that too but IMHO that was stupid. So when you wanna take that big step and be the big men on campus you better hire some more p.r. people to cover your butts. This aint New York, Boston, LA, Or Chicago but believe me, plenty of us are watching. Closely.

#46 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,639 posts

Posted 27 February 2021 - 08:36 AM

 

we all have our favorite players. I am not going to apologize for the fact that Rosario happens to be one of mine. To sit there and say theoney spent on Simmons made Risario unaffordable is a joke right? Without all the payroll numbers in front of me I would be willing to bet the payroll is at least 10 million under the projected 140 million dollar payroll that we are all led to believe. What's done is done. Why are we arguing anout Rosario any more? A lot of you got what you wanted when they non tendered him. He isnt coming back(except for the 19 times a year he torments Wes Johnson

 

Here is the problem. Who projected $140M? I did not see any such projection from the Twins. The $140M projection was a wish and the number was pulled out of the air. Some fans hoped the team would spend the equivalent to the record high payroll set last year. Is this reasonable?

 

Well, what is the basis of any budget? Revenue, right? I think it’s fair to say any young man/woman coming out of college with a business degree knows this to be true. Is there any chance revenue will be unaffected by the pandemic? Is that even remotely reasonable. Of course not. Best case scenario IMO is a $30M with a most likely case scenario of $40-50M. We can quibble over the exact number but the impact is going to be significant. Therefore, the problem is not the FO if you expect spending to be unaffected.

 

I don’t object to strongly to these really poorly formed positions until posters insist the actions are “a joke” initiated by “boneheads”. The problem is not what Falvey does not understand. The problem is what fans often don’t understand about the decision making process and responsibilities of the FO. Go ahead ... watch closely. Just don't assume the people qualified to make these decisions are idiots especially if you don't have the financial acumen to understand spending should not remain the same when a revenue reduction is certain.

  • Channing1964 likes this

#47 ashbury

ashbury

    Twins fan for life!

  • Member
  • 26,560 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 27 February 2021 - 10:17 AM

Well, what is the basis of any budget? Revenue, right?

Sure, it's a basis, but not the final word. The high-end company my daughter works for has made it plain that in this difficult economy, they are not only not laying off anyone, but they are selectively hiring aggressively, on the theory of picking off plum employees from competitors who are focusing on their current bottom line. The strategy worked great for them during the 2007-2011 downturn. (Past performance is no guarantee of future results... :) )

 

The point is not to specifically defend a $140M payroll, but to suggest that it wouldn't be crazy for a team to decide this is the year to be contrarian and invest in some way.
 

  • wsnydes likes this

Sarcasm. Just one of the many fine services I offer.


#48 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,639 posts

Posted 27 February 2021 - 10:49 AM

 

Sure, it's a basis, but not the final word. The high-end company my daughter works for has made it plain that in this difficult economy, they are not only not laying off anyone, but they are selectively hiring aggressively, on the theory of picking off plum employees from competitors who are focusing on their current bottom line. The strategy worked great for them during the 2007-2011 downturn. (Past performance is no guarantee of future results... :) )

 

The point is not to specifically defend a $140M payroll, but to suggest that it wouldn't be crazy for a team to decide this is the year to be contrarian and invest in some way.
 

 

I have stated in the past that one potential approach would be to take it in the shorts this year. Take a 3 year approach that would require more measured spending over the next 2-3 years. This approach takes advantage of a buyers market so I don't disagree in principal. However, that's not what happened here and its not the point. Many absolutely plucked a number out of the air or just hoped they would return to a record level of payroll. As I said, I don't mind the blindly optimistic approach until someone suggests it's boneheaded, joke, etc.

 

Revenue grew for some companies as a result of the pandemic. The fact that your daughters company did not lay-off anyone is anecdotal. It may or may not be relevant. However, the premise that spending follows revenue is about as basic as it gets.

 

We also need to look beyond this year to evaluate this off-season. The team really needed to make room given the number of quality corner OFers ready to contribute. This was also the year to transition Lewis and a couple of SPs. Establishing these players puts us in a very strong position. It's impossible to evaluate this off-season properly without mapping next season. Not with absolute specifics but in concept. In other words, assuming one of the OF prospects transitions. One of the SPs are promoted. What does it look like with or without Lewis taking over at SS, etc.


#49 Linus

Linus

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,604 posts

Posted 27 February 2021 - 05:11 PM

To answer the premise of the article it will depend on how much starting pitching they develop.
  • Squirrel and wsnydes like this

#50 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 28 February 2021 - 07:04 AM

Here is the problem. Who projected $140M? I did not see any such projection from the Twins. The $140M projection was a wish and the number was pulled out of the air. Some fans hoped the team would spend the equivalent to the record high payroll set last year. Is this reasonable?

Well, what is the basis of any budget? Revenue, right? I think it’s fair to say any young man/woman coming out of college with a business degree knows this to be true. Is there any chance revenue will be unaffected by the pandemic? Is that even remotely reasonable. Of course not. Best case scenario IMO is a $30M with a most likely case scenario of $40-50M. We can quibble over the exact number but the impact is going to be significant. Therefore, the problem is not the FO if you expect spending to be unaffected.

I don’t object to strongly to these really poorly formed positions until posters insist the actions are “a joke” initiated by “boneheads”. The problem is not what Falvey does not understand. The problem is what fans often don’t understand about the decision making process and responsibilities of the FO. Go ahead ... watch closely. Just don't assume the people qualified to make these decisions are idiots especially if you don't have the financial acumen to understand spending should not remain the same when a revenue reduction is certain.

I absolutely expected the payroll to be much lower because of the pandemic. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they have their head buried in the sand. Every time i see Jim Pohlad on any media outlet he is harping about the fact that the revenue reduction from last year is not going to affect his business decisions with the Twins. He stresses he is not laying off any front office employees and he can afford to pay the minor league players their full salaries for 2020. I do not care what other teams are doing but i am proud that my team is setting that bar. Now you want to argue with me what the budget is. I am sure I dont know that information specifically and i would be quite surprised if you told me that Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, or Jim Pohlad shared that information with you. My point was simply this....what would have been so wrong to spend 10 more million on Rosario this year so that we had an established major league player in that position? If i recall the combined salaries of Gonzalez and Adrianza were about equal to Simmons. Cruz is making basically the same money. They absolutely saved another 10 million by signing Happ, and Shoemaker while subtracting Odorizzi's 18 million. Why in the world should we not think there is money enough to keep Rosario. After 2021 he could have been an unrestricted free agent anyway. Some people are so in love with this front office that they never take their rose colored glasses off long enough to see some of the flaws in their thought processes. I am not even saying they deserve to get fired. What I am saying is ..Is this the way we want our organization to treat loyal and productive employees. Do we want the MLBPA to have an overall bad opinion of our teams management? There is a right, just, and fair way to do everything. I just want my team to be looked on favorably by the rest of the league and its fans. Just because the rest of the league has its head buried in analytic spread sheets and cost cutting manuals doesnt mean the Twins have to stop doing the right thing and treating the players like human beings instead of cattle. There is most likely going to a be a work stoppage in 2022 and these little things wont be forgotten by the players. All of the junior assistant general managers will be out of work if there is a 9-12 month strike in 2022 wont they? It wont matter who your smart, affordable team controlled players are if there is no league to play the games in. If you think 2020 was bad wait until you crack the books for 2022.

#51 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,639 posts

Posted 28 February 2021 - 10:12 AM

 

I absolutely expected the payroll to be much lower because of the pandemic. Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they have their head buried in the sand. Every time i see Jim Pohlad on any media outlet he is harping about the fact that the revenue reduction from last year is not going to affect his business decisions with the Twins. He stresses he is not laying off any front office employees and he can afford to pay the minor league players their full salaries for 2020. I do not care what other teams are doing but i am proud that my team is setting that bar. Now you want to argue with me what the budget is. I am sure I dont know that information specifically and i would be quite surprised if you told me that Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, or Jim Pohlad shared that information with you. My point was simply this....what would have been so wrong to spend 10 more million on Rosario this year so that we had an established major league player in that position? If i recall the combined salaries of Gonzalez and Adrianza were about equal to Simmons. Cruz is making basically the same money. They absolutely saved another 10 million by signing Happ, and Shoemaker while subtracting Odorizzi's 18 million. Why in the world should we not think there is money enough to keep Rosario. After 2021 he could have been an unrestricted free agent anyway. Some people are so in love with this front office that they never take their rose colored glasses off long enough to see some of the flaws in their thought processes. I am not even saying they deserve to get fired. What I am saying is ..Is this the way we want our organization to treat loyal and productive employees. Do we want the MLBPA to have an overall bad opinion of our teams management? There is a right, just, and fair way to do everything. I just want my team to be looked on favorably by the rest of the league and its fans. Just because the rest of the league has its head buried in analytic spread sheets and cost cutting manuals doesnt mean the Twins have to stop doing the right thing and treating the players like human beings instead of cattle. There is most likely going to a be a work stoppage in 2022 and these little things wont be forgotten by the players. All of the junior assistant general managers will be out of work if there is a 9-12 month strike in 2022 wont they? It wont matter who your smart, affordable team controlled players are if there is no league to play the games in. If you think 2020 was bad wait until you crack the books for 2022.

 

OK. I will play along. Now that we have established that expecting the budget to remain the same is unreasonable, we can agree they spent more than should have been expected. Therefore, we have two possible conclusions.

 

1) It’s unreasonable to expect they would have spent an additional roughly $10M to keep Rosario but you expect it regardless of reason.

 

2) We should have sacrificed elsewhere. Which one of these options would have been less productive than replacing Rosario with a combination of Rooker / Kirilloff / Larnach and Cave.

a. Pass on resigning Cruz.
b. Not added Simmons and used a prospect in his place.
c. We should have Passed on Happ and Robles.

d. Pass on some other combination of additions at a collective cost of $10M.

  • Channing1964 likes this

#52 Squirrel

Squirrel

    Rally SQUIRREL!!!!

  • Moderator
  • 26,884 posts
  • LocationFrostbite Falls, MN

Posted 28 February 2021 - 10:54 AM

Moderator warning: This article is about competing into the future and NOT about how/why the Twins should have retained Rosario this year. Do not turn this another article about Rosario. 

  • ashbury likes this
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

#53 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 02 March 2021 - 11:29 PM

OK. I will play along. Now that we have established that expecting the budget to remain the same is unreasonable, we can agree they spent more than should have been expected. Therefore, we have two possible conclusions.

1) It’s unreasonable to expect they would have spent an additional roughly $10M to keep Rosario but you expect it regardless of reason.

2) We should have sacrificed elsewhere. Which one of these options would have been less productive than replacing Rosario with a combination of Rooker / Kirilloff / Larnach and Cave.
a. Pass on resigning Cruz.
b. Not added Simmons and used a prospect in his place.
c. We should have Passed on Happ and Robles.
d. Pass on some other combination of additions at a collective cost of $10M.

my point was, the money is STILL there according to Jim Pohlad. We can't worry about it now because its a done deal anyways. Maybe we should look at it like this...to my knowledge Simmons isn't even in camp yet. That 10.5 million isn't looking like such a great deal now does it?

#54 Squirrel

Squirrel

    Rally SQUIRREL!!!!

  • Moderator
  • 26,884 posts
  • LocationFrostbite Falls, MN

Posted 03 March 2021 - 12:06 AM

 

my point was, the money is STILL there according to Jim Pohlad. We can't worry about it now because its a done deal anyways. Maybe we should look at it like this...to my knowledge Simmons isn't even in camp yet. That 10.5 million isn't looking like such a great deal now does it?

Now you are inserting Simmons into the conversation and a manner that is not pertinent to the topic. Stop it.

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

#55 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,639 posts

Posted 03 March 2021 - 08:04 AM

 

my point was, the money is STILL there according to Jim Pohlad. We can't worry about it now because its a done deal anyways. Maybe we should look at it like this...to my knowledge Simmons isn't even in camp yet. That 10.5 million isn't looking like such a great deal now does it?

 

We simply see this scenario very differently in the context of keeping the window open. I think that extended success is far better served by using that roster spot to break-in Kirilloff / Rooker & Larnach. I think the ream is better served reallocating the money to Simmons and sliding Polanco to 2B. I also think the younger players are better served with role models who take good at ABs, and throw to the right base or cut-off man.  

  • Channing1964 likes this

#56 Channing1964

Channing1964

    Wichita Wind Surge

  • Member
  • 904 posts
  • LocationPhoenix,Az

Posted 04 March 2021 - 07:23 AM

We simply see this scenario very differently in the context of keeping the window open. I think that extended success is far better served by using that roster spot to break-in Kirilloff / Rooker & Larnach. I think the ream is better served reallocating the money to Simmons and sliding Polanco to 2B. I also think the younger players are better served with role models who take good at ABs, and throw to the right base or cut-off man.

I am so glad we will be able to see the shortcomings of Eddie Rosario at least 19 times this season....feel free to check back with me at the All Star break before you wear your arm out patting the Falvine's backs for their forward thinking roster moves...lol

#57 Greglw3

Greglw3

    Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

  • Member
  • 75 posts

Posted 15 March 2021 - 08:59 AM

 

Except the Twins are a mid-market team, which makes the KC analogy a little inaccurate. The TC media market ranks in the middle and of the pack and Target Field helps offset some of the challenges that faced the previous front office.

 

Either way, nobody can compete with LAD or NYY the way the current system is set up. I should clarify: nobody can compete spending-wise. But as NYM has shown for decades, and I suspect SD will show soon, most of the time you can't buy a championship. It's more complicated that just payroll. But of course a semi-equal payroll is helpful for equity.

I can think of one example where a mediocre-poor team bought a championship and that was the Florida Marlins 1st championship. After that, they dumped everyone and stunk for a short time but they always seem to have lots of good prospects!


#58 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Moderator
  • 18,597 posts

Posted 15 March 2021 - 10:01 AM

 

I can think of one example where a mediocre-poor team bought a championship and that was the Florida Marlins 1st championship. After that, they dumped everyone and stunk for a short time but they always seem to have lots of good prospects!

What constitutes "buying a championship"? It's an interesting question. The Marlins top position player in 1997, by bWAR, was home-grown Charles Johnson; #3 was Gary Sheffield who wasn't cheap but they acquired him by trade way back in 1993. Only 3 of their starting 8 position players were FA signings, although 2 did pretty well (Bonilla and Alou).

 

On the pitching side, they were led by Kevin Brown who was indeed a FA signing, albeit a year earlier and he was probably considered more of a workhorse than a star until he excelled for the Marlins in '96 -- his 3-year Marlins contract was relatively conservative compared to the megadeal he signed with the Dodgers later. Alex Fernandez was their biggest FA signing of all, and was solid in the regular season although due to a shoulder injury he didn't even pitch in the World Series that year (and indeed his career was pretty much done after that). And I'm not sure how to count an international FA guy like Livan Hernandez -- he was a high-profile Cuban defector, of course, and got a big contract for an amateur, but it wasn't very big at all compared to domestic FA deals (or even the top domestic amateur deals signed in 1996 -- hello, Travis Lee! :) ). After signing, the Marlins even developed Livan in the minors for a season too.

 

Overall, they did jump to 5th in MLB payroll in 1997, although that same payroll would have only ranked 11th in 1998 -- so they were a bit of the inflation curve.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: josh donaldson, byron buxton, jose berrios, alex kirilloff, royce lewis