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Article: Deconstructing Diamond

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#1 Brad Swanson

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:12 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...ructing-Diamond

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#2 jorgenswest

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:39 PM

I wish there was similar data to study Allan Anderson.

What made him so effective for such a small window of time? Parallels to Diamond? His first full season was his best. I hope we haven't seen the best of Diamond yet.

#3 Brad Swanson

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 08:36 AM

I hope so too. There are certainly reasons to be encouraged by what he did last year. I find no reason to think that he can't be equally successful, if he pitches as he did last season.

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#4 ericchri

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 08:51 AM

That was a really fun read. It's nice to know that his success last year wasn't really based on luck, but just by pitching really well. His late regression is still worrying, of course, but maybe he's just the rare guy who has really, really good control, and it just took him a while to find it. Here's hoping.

#5 fairweather

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:09 AM

No one even knows when this guy will be able to pitch.

#6 twinsfaninsaudi

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:15 AM

Yes! I knew he was for real! Thank you for doing the research and analysis that I am not capable of. Awesome article!

#7 Brad Swanson

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:27 AM

Yes! I knew he was for real! Thank you for doing the research and analysis that I am not capable of. Awesome article!


Haha, you are welcome. I will say this. He is as real as that walk rate. Without that command/control, he could really struggle. As ericchri said earlier, if this control is real, there doesn't seem to be any particular reason to think he will regress too much.

"Let's get after it." ~ Someone on the Twins, probably.
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#8 Willihammer

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:09 AM

I looked at Diamond's brooksbaseball profile for 2012 and was struck by 2 things. 1 is how infrequently hitters are swinging in 2-0 and 3-1 against him, and, how Diamond seemed to thrive in those counts. 8:1 and 7:1 GB/FB ratios on his fastball in those counts, and only 1 HR.

edit: actually those are GB/FB ratios to righthanders only. LHH seemed to fair a bit better

Edited by Willihammer, 15 February 2013 - 10:15 AM.


#9 mcrow

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:27 AM

I think last year was his ceiling and that unless he has lights-out control all season this year like he did last year he's going to come back to the pack some. Not many pitchers in the history of MLB have been able to do what Diamond did last year for their entire career so I suspect that we'll find out this year if it was a one year semi-fluke or if he's just that good.

#10 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 01:47 PM

What gives me hope that Diamond could be a lasting talent is that even when he "regressed" after the ASB, his 2nd half ERA was still just over 4. Not exactly terrible. My prediction for '13 is an entire season of 3.90 ERA ball.

#11 mcrow

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 01:57 PM

What gives me hope that Diamond could be a lasting talent is that even when he "regressed" after the ASB, his 2nd half ERA was still just over 4. Not exactly terrible. My prediction for '13 is an entire season of 3.90 ERA ball.


I think he's probably going to be a little over 4 ERA for the year and somewhere around that for his career. I think that would make him a very nice #2 guy in the rotation but they'll still be missing a staff ace.

So i'd say he'll be a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher from year to year, +/- about 0.25. So he's probably a #2-#3 type of pitcher I think, talent wise. If you can get guys like that out the Rule 5 draft you're pretty happy with it.

#12 bobby_baseball

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 02:43 PM

What gives me hope that Diamond could be a lasting talent is that even when he "regressed" after the ASB, his 2nd half ERA was still just over 4. Not exactly terrible. My prediction for '13 is an entire season of 3.90 ERA ball.


I think Joe Saunders is a good comp for Scotty Diamond... Mid-4 ERA a guy who will benefit from pitching at Target Field and will be hurt/helped by the defense. Can always hope for Jon Danks/Cliff Lee type season sprinkled in!

The Twins 2014 rotation could look something like this anyway:

Vance Worley
Kyle Gibson
Mike Pelfrey
Scott Diamond
Liam Hendricks
** Trevor May & Alex Meyer knocking on the door

#13 mcrow

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 02:51 PM

I think Joe Saunders is a good comp for Scotty Diamond... Mid-4 ERA a guy who will benefit from pitching at Target Field and will be hurt/helped by the defense. Can always hope for Jon Danks/Cliff Lee type season sprinkled in!

The Twins 2014 rotation could look something like this anyway:

Vance Worley
Kyle Gibson
Mike Pelfrey
Scott Diamond
Liam Hendricks
** Trevor May & Alex Meyer knocking on the door


Saunders is probably a good comparison but given that Diamond is younger there could be more upside. I think Diamond is already better than Saunders was at the same point in their careers so I think there is potential for him to be the better pitcher when comparing careers.

If Diamond can repeat close to what he did last year he'll be a 3.7-4.00 ERA player over his career.