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Article: Roster Projections Part 1: Pitchers and Catchers

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:23 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...rs-and-Catchers

#2 tjsyam921

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 05:31 AM

I personally don't see Gibson making the opening day roster. Partly to limit his innings and partly to save on major league service time.

#3 beckmt

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 05:57 AM

I would love to se Gibson here, think it would take two starting pitcher injuries to make it happen. List looked reasonable, but think Twins will carry a third lefty and Swarzak will not be here(also hopefully Burnett). Expect Twins will give Pressly every chance to make it (50%), also Wood and Ronikie. Also hope Butera will not make it(50%) and Twins carry an extra outfielder.

#4 AM.

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 06:02 AM

The Opening Day Starter for Your 2013 Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Correia.

#5 Chance

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:03 AM

I like what you have besides I would switch Pressly for Gibson. He could mostly pitch in the pen as a long reliever and maybe make a spot start or 2 until a starter returns from the DL (I assume someone will be on it for the first couple weeks). This would let him try to cement his role with the twins and also not push Gibson to soon into the rotation. After the DL'ed pitcher returns he could take Roenickes spot in the pen (if everyone is doing about the same and Pressly has done enough to stick around.

#6 snepp

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:06 AM

The Opening Day Starter for Your 2013 Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Correia.


That's not funny, don't do that.

#7 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:10 AM

I personally don't see Gibson making the opening day roster. Partly to limit his innings and partly to save on major league service time.


I think that would make the most sense. I think it all depends on Diamond and Pelfrey being ready.

#8 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:13 AM

The Opening Day Starter for Your 2013 Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Correia.


Assuming Diamond isn't going to be ready, I would also say that this makes the most sense.

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:17 AM

I think that would make the most sense. I think it all depends on Diamond and Pelfrey being ready.


Before Diamond came up as a question mark, I thought Gibson's chance of starting the season in the rotation was close to zero. Now with Diamond's health up in the air, I think it's closer to 50/50.

#10 Badsmerf

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:23 AM

You are being too low on Harden I think. Only 4% chance to go north with the twins? I see it closer to 60% at this point. If he is healthy he will start with the Twins and pitch his way off the team. They've kept much worse pitchers on the roster until finally releasing them. I see them letting him try to start and with the smallest hint of breaking down they move him to the pen (or when Gibson is ready).
Do or do not. There is no try.

#11 mcrow

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:31 AM

You are being too low on Harden I think. Only 4% chance to go north with the twins? I see it closer to 60% at this point. If he is healthy he will start with the Twins and pitch his way off the team. They've kept much worse pitchers on the roster until finally releasing them. I see them letting him try to start and with the smallest hint of breaking down they move him to the pen (or when Gibson is ready).


If Harden is healthy and pitching anything like he used to he will be on the roster, a couple of big "ifs" though.

#12 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:35 AM

You are being too low on Harden I think. Only 4% chance to go north with the twins? I see it closer to 60% at this point. If he is healthy he will start with the Twins and pitch his way off the team. They've kept much worse pitchers on the roster until finally releasing them. I see them letting him try to start and with the smallest hint of breaking down they move him to the pen (or when Gibson is ready).


After missing all of last season, we have absolutely no idea of where he is at right now. If he pitches really well this spring, his percentage will increase as we go along. I just think that he's got a lot to overcome. Lots of bullpen guys who are out of options, questions about his durability to start. I hope he can be healthy and get back to what he once had the potential to become. I just don't know that it happens right out of spring training.

#13 LewFordLives

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:39 AM

I think DeVries will get the nod before Gibson. Gibson has not proven he's back to 100 percent following his surgery and he's never had a prolonged successful stint at AAA.

#14 twinsnorth49

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:50 AM

The Opening Day Starter for Your 2013 Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Correia.


Posted Image

#15 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:57 AM

I think DeVries will get the nod before Gibson. Gibson has not proven he's back to 100 percent following his surgery and he's never had a prolonged successful stint at AAA.


I don't necessarily disagree. I think De Vries will be given a legitimate shot.

#16 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 09:37 AM

Assuming Diamond or Pelfrey on the DL--I go with Deduno over Gibson for 5th starter--saving service time and innings.

I hope the Twins only carry two catchers and keep an extra IF so no Butera.

No way Harden makes this roster--he has done nothing the last 2 years.

#17 Nate Haseman

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 10:27 AM

I think Sam Deduno has the stuff to be successful at this level. Hopefully with last year's time with the big club under his belt, he feels a little more confident and can hit some spots and miss some bats this year. I would love to see what Gibson can do in the majors this year but, aside from a Christopher Lloyd in Angels in the Outfield intervention, I think bringing him up this year would be a waste of his service time.

#18 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 10:47 AM

I think Sam Deduno has the stuff to be successful at this level. Hopefully with last year's time with the big club under his belt, he feels a little more confident and can hit some spots and miss some bats this year. I would love to see what Gibson can do in the majors this year but, aside from a Christopher Lloyd in Angels in the Outfield intervention, I think bringing him up this year would be a waste of his service time.


I'm with you... I think Deduno is going to be a wild wild card at some point this year.

Statistically... I have very little reason to be optimistic about Deduno... But... I've seen him pitch... His stuff is electric... And that gives me optimism...

Just some consistent mechanics and his control can improve and if that happens... Well... that's an IF... but... IF he does... he could cause problems for our opponents with that stuff of his.

I'm not going to scratch Deduno off my list until the Twins do. He could be one of those guys that we don't plan on but end up being part of the plans.

#19 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:20 AM

Excellent Seth. As always I feel a little smarter after reading your articles.

I agree that Hendriks is more likely to come north than Gibson. Have to get him out there and find out if his minor league track record is going to transfer to MLB. Last year certainly wasn’t kind to him.

I also agree that Deduno, while a bit of a wild card, sometimes goes out there and really confuses the hitters. Sadly, he sometimes confuses his catcher, too.

#20 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:25 AM

the opening day starter for your 2013 minnesota twins:

Kevin correia.


that's not funny, don't do that.


lol

#21 Physics Guy

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:27 AM

Starters: Diamond, Worley, Correia Pelfrey, Hendriks (DeVries if Diamond needs a fill-in for a couple of weeks)
Relievers: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Fien, Roenicke, Pressly, DeVries (LR, spot starter)

Burnett was at least a +WAR guy last year, but just barely. Swarzak wasn't even close. I'd like to see what some of the other guys can do and make them earn their way back. Let's not keep a Jeff Gray-type performer on the roster as long as we did last year.

As for Gibson, I say start him in AAA giving him 60-70 pitches a start and hopefully have him ramped up by mid-May, early June. They have an abundance of starters in AAA, have one of them be Gibson's scheduled relief. Gibson pitches first 4-5, followed by Vazquez or Swarzak. Or better yet, have him spend April in warm Ft.Myers and then send him to AAA.

#22 Physics Guy

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:29 AM

The Opening Day Starter for Your 2013 Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Correia.


If Diamond doesn't start opening day, it had better be Worley. I think heads will explode across TD if it is Correia.

#23 spycake

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:31 PM

If you are considering injuries or the possibility of injuries, nobody should really be at 100%, right? Actually might be kind of interesting to see your health forecast here -- Correia would certainly be the top starter then, probably at the max percentage for pitchers (whatever that would be - 98%?).

Echoing some of the other comments: Gibson is way too high (dude's never pitched in MLB and has barely pitched since surgery) and Deduno is probably a bit too low (he should be notably ahead of Walters and Vasquez).

In the bullpen, Burnett really should be 100% (even though many of us are not fans), and Swarzak's probably close to 100% if not for the injury. Tim Wood is too high (I don't think he's guaranteed anything), as are Pressly (always bet against the Rule 5 pick!) and Thielbar (although Seth seems to be a fan).

I hope Butera at 95% is too high, but you're probably right, unless the Twins come to some interesting arrangement with Mauer, Doumit, and Herrmann.

#24 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:37 PM

I hope the Twins only carry two catchers and keep an extra IF so no Butera.


If I did the math right, 95% x 15% means there is about a 14% chance the Twins will carry four.

[SIZE=1]/ I know, I know, 95% + 15% = 110% meaning about a 10% chance of some injury.[/SIZE]

#25 cmathewson

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:11 PM

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do?

Also, why do we need three catchers again? Butera didn't start the season with the Twins last year. Here's hoping they don't waste a roster spot on him again, at least not on the opening day roster.

#26 FrodaddyG

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:15 PM

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do?

Because if he's going to be a starter long-term, keeping him on a starter's routine is more important.

#27 PseudoSABR

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:17 PM

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do?

Also, why do we need three catchers again? Butera didn't start the season with the Twins last year. Here's hoping they don't waste a roster spot on him again, at least not on the opening day roster.

Certainly extended spring training is an option for Gibson to limit his pitches, isn't it?

#28 snepp

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:23 PM

Certainly extended spring training is an option for Gibson to limit his pitches, isn't it?


I'm not positive about this, but I believe that players on extended ST accrue major league service time (similar to players on rehab assignments). If they were going to do that they may as well just send him to Rochester and get the extra year of control.

#29 jay

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:57 PM

If I did the math right, 95% x 15% means there is about a 14% chance the Twins will carry four.


Don't bother with this... the cumulative percentages say the Twins will bring 17.8 pitchers/catchers north on the 25-man active roster. I would sure hope it's closer to 15.

The article is great, there's actual names projected at the bottom, and we all get the point of the percentages, but I do wish Seth would take just a few extra minutes to have the math add up right.

#30 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 02:58 PM

Then have Gibson start and have a designated reliever in the majors. If the reliever gets tired, call up the next guy from AAA....you know, use AAA for flexibility, like other teams do.