Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store


Photo

Murphy: 5 Questions About The Twins

  • Please log in to reply
37 replies to this topic

#1 John Bonnes

John Bonnes

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 4,954 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 04:31 PM

I like that he pays attention to the problems the Twins have had with their depth. He also doesn't pull any punches when talking about Chris Parmelee and Justin Morneau.

It is unlikely the Twins, who are compensating Mauer $23 million per year through 2018, would be willing to pay market value ($80 million to $100 million?) to re-invest in another prime slugger, especially if they are out of contention by the July 31 trade deadline.


Parmelee is a better fit playing first base than trying to navigate the tricky contours and strategic demands of right field. He shredded Class AAA pitching last season and is poised for a breakout season.


The writing is on the wall here, folks.


http://www.twincitie...ons-few-answers

#2 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,063 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 04:38 PM

I think this is pretty commonly known. I'd be quite shocked if the Twins re-signed Morneau unless Parmelee totally implodes. Even then, spending big on a 32-year-old injury-prone first baseman doesn't really fit with a rebuild/youth movement. I strongly doubt Morneau will be looking at a contract anywhere close to $80 million though.

#3 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,387 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 11 February 2013 - 04:41 PM

I could come up with more than 5 questions.

That's not surprising because I have a lot of questions.

Not all baseball related... Like how does this lava lamp sitting next to me work exactly?

#4 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,063 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 04:53 PM

Also, I keep seeing people refer to Aaron Hicks' 2012 season in New Britain as "solid." Illustrates to me a fundamental misunderstanding of just how brilliant his season truly was.

Murphy does touch on a point in the last question that I think is important: the reinforcements for failed/injured players this year should be exponentially better. Having guys like May, Meyer and Arcia potentially ready to step in midway through the year could be pretty big. There were really no players of that caliber available in the high minors the past couple years.

#5 spideyo

spideyo

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 603 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 04:56 PM

With his injury history, I don't think Morneau is going to command the 80-100 million salary some are predicting. He's missed at least 25 games each year for the last four years, and if he gets one more hard knock to the head he's probably out of the game for good. Even if he has his best year ever, I'd be surprised if anyone tried to lock him up for longer than 3 or 4 years. In that range, it's much more likely that the Twins will be able to make a decent offer, and there doesn't seem to be any indication that Morneau actually WANTS to leave the Twins.

When you look at this situation, I think you also have to consider what Doumit's role is going to be going forward. Is he going to be our main DH guy? Is he going to primarily be a #2 catcher and bench bat? Will he end up getting traded?

How about Mauer? If the team intends for him to eventually transition to 1b, does it make sense handing to Parmelee for a short period of time, or would be better off trading Parmelee to a team desperate for left handed bats and first basemen?

Assuming Parmelee struggles defensively in RF but does well offensively, I could see a situation over the next few years where he and Morneau essentially platoon DH and 1b, with Parmelee eventually spending more and more time on the field. Of course, that's assuming Mauer keeps catching (or moves to 3b), and Doumit isn't our full-time DH.

Anyway you look at it though, our myriad of options at 1b in the near future is probably the single best problem the twins have to face

#6 Oldgoat_MN

Oldgoat_MN

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 672 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 05:30 PM

I like Doumit, but his sub .800 OPS is not something that you hang your future on.
Parmelee should get every opportunity. If he falters we could very well see Arcia this summer.

I really expect Morneau to have a good year. Just sayin'.

#7 70charger

70charger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,145 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 05:35 PM

I fully expected Morneau to be traded at the deadline coming into this season. But now that we've been seeing what kind of leverage teams have over players like this if they make them a qualifying offer, I think it's at least plausible that they keep him around if he turns out to be fully healthy. Then, after the season, they offer him another year at $13/14 million (or whatever qualifying is). He turns it down, they get compensation that would make up for the lack of a trade return. He accepts, great, another year of healthy Morneau.

And I do think that if he stays healthy, Morneau is worth $13 or 14 million. Terry Ryan says that he worries less about overpaying in dollars than he does overpaying in years. Given the opportunity to tack on extra years one by one should be appealing to him, don't you think?

#8 spideyo

spideyo

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 603 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 10:15 PM

I fully expected Morneau to be traded at the deadline coming into this season. But now that we've been seeing what kind of leverage teams have over players like this if they make them a qualifying offer, I think it's at least plausible that they keep him around if he turns out to be fully healthy. Then, after the season, they offer him another year at $13/14 million (or whatever qualifying is). He turns it down, they get compensation that would make up for the lack of a trade return. He accepts, great, another year of healthy Morneau.

And I do think that if he stays healthy, Morneau is worth $13 or 14 million. Terry Ryan says that he worries less about overpaying in dollars than he does overpaying in years. Given the opportunity to tack on extra years one by one should be appealing to him, don't you think?


With it only being the second season of the new CBA rules, it's hard to guess what people will be doing at the trade deadline, but it certainly seemed like teams were a bit more reluctant to give up much for the half season rental players. It certainly isn't going to help anything that Morneau has only played 38 games from September 1st on over the last four years. I think if he is doing well it's going to piss off a lot of season ticket holders (who are already a bit pissed at the team) if they get rid of him for some kids who may or may not pan out. It's not like we're going to be able to get the next Mike Trout or Stephen Strausberg for him.

I think you are right though, that if he stays healthy and plays at top form he'll be worth 13+ a year, and I can see the Twins offering him a two year deal, maybe with an option year.

I guess I look at it this way. In two years we could have Buxton, Arcia, and Hicks in the OF, Sano, Rosario, at 2b and 3b, and a slew of hot young pitchers looking to prove themselves. If given the choice between a healthy 34 year old Morneau or a 26 year old Parmelee at 1b, I think I'd definitely take Morneau. That's the kind of thing that could make a difference between a team going 3 and out in divisional play vs. going to game 7 of the world series.

#9 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,387 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 11 February 2013 - 10:22 PM

If Parmelee plays well and Morneau rebounds and the team struggles at the same time... It would seem to make sense to try and get something for Morneau at the deadline.

However... I just have a gut feeling that Morneau is a TWIN!!! There seems to be a loyalty side to the front office. I don't see them spending big money on Free Agents but I do see them spending on keeping players.

I think they will work something out and Morneau returns for 2014 regardless of what Parmelee does.

Just a gut feeling with no basis.

#10 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,051 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 08:56 AM

But why would Justin sign here, if he can go elsewhere? That is the part I do not compute.

#11 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 828 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 09:16 AM

Murphy seems to feel that Parmalee will replace Morneau, I feel it is wait and see. If Parmalee gets off to a slow start, Arcia rakes in Rochester and Morneau hits well here it is time to extend Morneau, bring up Arcia and exile Parmalee as one of those great AAA hitters who cannot make it in the big time.

#12 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,387 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 12 February 2013 - 09:38 AM

But why would Justin sign here, if he can go elsewhere? That is the part I do not compute.


I don't know if he would or wouldn't but if an offer is competive... Staying with his team isn't a totally crazy thought. There are some people who like to be a part of something thru thick and thin. I don't know if Justin is that guy or not. I don't know what the Twins plans are for Justin.

Just a gut feeling that the Twins would like Justin to stay based on no inside information at all.

#13 mcrow

mcrow

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 275 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 09:41 AM

I have a feeling that both Morneau and Willingham will be on the block. Willingham is one of the better values in the league right now and like Morneau he's getting to an age where you can't be certain of how many more years they have left for peak production.

They could both be very attractive players to competing teams this year and could net some nice prospects. I would be very surprised if at least one of them wasn't traded.

#14 Winston Smith

Winston Smith

    Old Geezer

  • Members
  • 1,375 posts
  • LocationOceania

Posted 12 February 2013 - 10:28 AM

With his history Morneau will be very lucky to get a Willingham type contract next winter, imo. If he has any health issues he may be looking at a 1 year deal.
Just doesn't make sense to stick a lot of money in a guy that can't stay on the field. He is 32 in May and next year any new contract will be for his 33 yr old and on years.

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#15 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,291 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:00 PM

Recall the interview with St.Peter "...build this thing and do it the right way." Is Extending Morneau consistent with that statement? No, not in my opinion. The Twins are looking at multiple 1B candidates from within their franchise and one must include Mauer in that group (as distateful as that reads). If Parmalee is judged a failure--there are many other options for 1B (as well as RF). The Twins would simply shout "Next!"

#16 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,736 posts
  • LocationLake Tahoe, Nevada

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:19 PM

With it only being the second season of the new CBA rules, it's hard to guess what people will be doing at the trade deadline, but it certainly seemed like teams were a bit more reluctant to give up much for the half season rental players.


The potential for a draft pick no longer goes along with the player if he's traded, making him more valuable to the team he is on than to a team that wants to acquire him. I think hoping for a deadline trade is a big mistake unless we're talking about a top-five type of player, it just won't/can't bring much in return.

That's the kind of thing that could make a difference between a team going 3 and out in divisional play vs. going to game 7 of the world series.


Four-game sweep for the Twins. Come on, dream big!

#17 spideyo

spideyo

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 603 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:27 PM

But why would Justin sign here, if he can go elsewhere? That is the part I do not compute.


Because he likes playing here? Because he's comfortable with this team, these coaches, this organization? Because he has a house in Plymouth, his wife is a native and has family here? Because some players aren't willing to uproot their entire lives to chase a few more bucks or a world series ring?

I know it seems odd these days, but not every professional athlete has a "mercenary" mentality.

#18 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,051 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:32 PM

I agree, every player is different. Frankly, I would most want guys willing to do anything for A WS that was not cheating. Those are all good reasons to stay, I would go where the team was actually playing to win, but others would not.

#19 Physics Guy

Physics Guy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 612 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:35 PM

Unless Parmelee falls flat on his face, he plays one year in RF and then takes over at 1B. I hate to see Morneau go, but I can't see him sticking around unless Doumit is gone to free up AB at DH.

#20 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 9,387 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 12 February 2013 - 01:48 PM

Unless Parmelee falls flat on his face, he plays one year in RF and then takes over at 1B. I hate to see Morneau go, but I can't see him sticking around unless Doumit is gone to free up AB at DH.


I agree with you... In my mind... If Parmelee proves MLB capable... Trading Morneau makes sense to me. But... I say that without knowing what Morneau would fetch in return.

I just can't shake the feeling that Twins would try to keep him regardless out of loyalty for lack of a better word.

if the Twins reach a deal with Morneau... I won't be surprised and I would also be OK with it. I've been a fan of his since I was begging for his call up in 2003. Even if Morneau and Parmelee on the same team clog things up.

#21 Oxtung

Oxtung

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,512 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 01:49 PM

With it only being the second season of the new CBA rules, it's hard to guess what people will be doing at the trade deadline, but it certainly seemed like teams were a bit more reluctant to give up much for the half season rental players. It certainly isn't going to help anything that Morneau has only played 38 games from September 1st on over the last four years. I think if he is doing well it's going to piss off a lot of season ticket holders (who are already a bit pissed at the team) if they get rid of him for some kids who may or may not pan out. It's not like we're going to be able to get the next Mike Trout or Stephen Strausberg for him.


Last year the Marlins traded two of their top ten prospects for a half season rental of 36 year old Carlos Lee. He had a .747 OPS and hadn't OPS'd above .800 in 3 years. So even with Morneau's injury history I think it's reasonable to believe he'd bring back something of significance at the trade deadline.

#22 spideyo

spideyo

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 603 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 05:22 PM

Last year the Marlins traded two of their top ten prospects for a half season rental of 36 year old Carlos Lee. He had a .747 OPS and hadn't OPS'd above .800 in 3 years. So even with Morneau's injury history I think it's reasonable to believe he'd bring back something of significance at the trade deadline.


I'm pretty sure nothing related to the Marlins is reasonable to believe

#23 Oxtung

Oxtung

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,512 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 06:28 PM

I'm pretty sure nothing related to the Marlins is reasonable to believe


How about a half season of Shane Victorino, .724 OPS, for a top ten prospect and a former top ten prospect that had graduated to the bigs?

Reed Johnson + Paul Maholm brought back Braves top 10 prospect Arodys Vizcaino plus another prospect

Wandy Rodriguez (year and a half of control left) brought back a top 10 prospect Grossman from Pirates plus 2 others

Perhaps Morneau won't bring back a top overall top 100 prospect like Span did but that doesn't mean he won't bring back something. Certainly his value is dependent on his production in the first half. We'll have to wait and see.

#24 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,286 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 06:39 PM

Murphy seems to feel that Parmalee will replace Morneau, I feel it is wait and see. If Parmalee gets off to a slow start, Arcia rakes in Rochester and Morneau hits well here it is time to extend Morneau, bring up Arcia and exile Parmalee as one of those great AAA hitters who cannot make it in the big time.


Not after his .355/.443/.592 September in 2011... Work comes to worse, he would be in the same conversation as Greg Jefferies and Shane Spencer ;)
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#25 Badsmerf

Badsmerf

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,656 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 10:28 PM

Also, I keep seeing people refer to Aaron Hicks' 2012 season in New Britain as "solid." Illustrates to me a fundamental misunderstanding of just how brilliant his season truly was.


So .286/.384/.460 with 32 SB is a brilliant season? Good yes, brilliant... I wouldn't go that far. I still want him to hit exclusively as a RH.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#26 FrodaddyG

FrodaddyG

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 536 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 01:13 AM

So .286/.384/.460 with 32 SB is a brilliant season? Good yes, brilliant... I wouldn't go that far. I still want him to hit exclusively as a RH.

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".

#27 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,029 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 01:48 AM

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".


Wow, hard to please everybody. 2012 was most certainly a break-out year for Hicks, finally beginning to realize his full potential and holding much promise for years to come. And better yet, his breakout really kicked in when he was moved to leadoff full-time. He is on a much higher career flight path than Michael Bourn, even though he started out his professional career 2 years younger than Bourn did (Bourn minor league stats: .284/.378/.392/.770 Hicks: .271/.379/.421/.800 with similar defensive-range stats). If the biggest concern that we have with Hicks is questioning his switch-hitting ability, we're going to get a good one, one to at least remind of the days of Puckett and Hunter, if not very conceivably surpass them.

#28 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 06:54 AM

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".


Only 4th? SLACKER! :-)

#29 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 7,450 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 08:14 AM

But why would Justin sign here, if he can go elsewhere? That is the part I do not compute.


Because he lives here (and Vancouver and Arizona), his wife and her family are here, because the money is good and his kids are set for life... I get what you're saying, but as with any real job, there have to be 'intangible' factors. You would hope that there is more to the game than "just a business" for some of them.

That said, I think that if Gardy goes, Morneau won't want to stick around anyway. I think they have to see what they have in Parmelee and Arcia, and if Morneau can be healthy all year. If so, I have nothing against locking up Morneau for another 3 years at something like $20-25 million, if he'll take it. I appreciate guys that that want to stay and actually get to.

#30 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 08:34 AM

Yeah, if healthy I wouldn't mind locking Justin up to a 2-3 year deal, I think people forget just how dominant Justin was when he was healthy, I like Parmelee but I don't think he will ever be an average 1st baseman hitting wise. Morneau could stick until Sano is ready.