Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Re: Mauer's Contract

  • Please log in to reply
91 replies to this topic

#21 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Twins Daily Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,308 posts
  • LocationLake Tahoe, Nevada

Posted 11 February 2013 - 06:25 PM

but I would guess that Pujols and especially Prince Fielder are going to look pretty silly when they're still getting more than Mauer when they're 40 years old and/or 800 pounds.


People will think you are exaggerating, but if anything you are underestimating. Pujols will actually be nearly 42 when his contract ends.

#22 70charger

70charger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,197 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 07:23 PM

People will think you are exaggerating, but if anything you are underestimating. Pujols will actually be nearly 42 when his contract ends.


I agree. By comparison, the Twins are pretty well protected against age and gross obesity when it comes to Joe Mauer. I think that Pujols is easily one of the best baseball players not only of our generation but of all time - an inner circle hall of famer when he's done. But that doesn't mean that he won't be today's A-Rod when he's at the end of his contract. Sucking up dollars, producing little on the field.

#23 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 11 February 2013 - 07:58 PM

Could it be that a double by Mauer scores someone like Revere from first ahead of him, while a double by Willingham leaves Mauer on third waiting to be driven in? This is a reason I don't trust RISP statistics very much.


Um, seriously? First, the first sentence was just about runner on base...not in scoring position. And I'm sorry...if you don't trust RISP stats, there's really nowhere to go from there. Might as well just say I don't trust any stats that doesn't back up my view. You are, absolutely, the first one I've ever seen to blow off RISP numbers...so you have that going for you...

Edited by ThePuck, 11 February 2013 - 08:00 PM.


#24 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Twins Daily Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,308 posts
  • LocationLake Tahoe, Nevada

Posted 12 February 2013 - 10:20 AM

You are, absolutely, the first one I've ever seen to blow off RISP numbers


You need to get out more.

#25 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:41 AM

You are, absolutely, the first one I've ever seen to blow off RISP numbers


Holy balls, really? The vast majority of the sabr community discounts them entirely.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:43 AM

This post is stupid. Please leave.


Dave, come on. I know you're frustrated with the negativity around here but that is a direct violation of the forum rules and it brings nothing to the conversation (and usually, only helps fan the flames). I just shook my head when I read that post but there's no reason to tell the guy to leave.

It's that kind of posting that sent BYTO's traffic numbers from "extremely strong community" in 2008 to "circling the drain" in 2012. You often state how much you miss BYTO but the general attitude of that site is unsustainable over the long-term and posts like that were a large reason for its slow demise. If you tell enough people to leave because you think they're stupid, guess what happens?

They leave and you're left arguing with yourself.

#27 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:44 AM

Holy balls, really? The vast majority of the sabr community discounts them entirely.


I thought they've blown off RBI numbers...not numbers with RISP. Two different things there. I haven't ever heard of SABR people blowing off what a player does with RISP, and why would they? That would make no sense.

Edited by ThePuck, 12 February 2013 - 11:46 AM.


#28 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:45 AM

You need to get out more.


If you say so

#29 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:49 AM

I thought they've blown off RBI numbers...not numbers with RISP. Two different things there. I haven't ever heard of SABR people blowing off what a player does with RISP, and why would they?


Because it's been proven time and time again that a player hits the same with RISP that he does with the bases empty. Any fluctuation above or below that career norm is a temporary blip in an otherwise consistent arc. Give a guy enough ABs with RISP and he'll end up in the same place as his non-RISP numbers.

There are a few outliers to that "rule". I think Molitor was one. Maybe Gwynn was another. There were 3-4 guys over the course of 30+ years that didn't revert to career averages with RISP. Such a small fraction of players that it's essentially a given that a player will be the same with or without men on base.

#30 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,339 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:50 AM

and why would they?


Because it's been shown that players will, over time, perform basically the same w/RISP as they do as a whole. Dramatically cutting the sample size, for little (or no) benefit, doesn't serve much purpose.

#31 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:53 AM

Because it's been proven time and time again that a player hits the same with RISP that he does with the bases empty. Any fluctuation above or below that career norm is a temporary blip in an otherwise consistent arc. Give a guy enough ABs with RISP and he'll end up in the same place as his non-RISP numbers.

There are a few outliers to that "rule". I think Molitor was one. Maybe Gwynn was another. There were 3-4 guys over the course of 30+ years that didn't revert to career averages with RISP. Such a small fraction of players that it's essentially a given that a player will be the same with or without men on base.


So why do the writers at Fangraphs, who are SABR people, write the info I posted that started this conversation?

'Mauer drove in 18.1 percent of the runners on base for his plate appearances. Not only did that rank eighth-highest in the entire league, it topped Willingham's mark of 16.3 percent. Mauer converted a higher percentage of his RBI chances than Willingham (even though Willingham had a career year), but Willingham had 45 more runners on base in 26 fewer plate appearances because Mauer was on constantly in front of him.'

#32 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 11:59 AM

So why do the writers at Fangraphs, who are SABR people, write the info I posted that started this conversation?

'Mauer drove in 18.1 percent of the runners on base for his plate appearances. Not only did that rank eighth-highest in the entire league, it topped Willingham's mark of 16.3 percent. Mauer converted a higher percentage of his RBI chances than Willingham (even though Willingham had a career year), but Willingham had 45 more runners on base in 26 fewer plate appearances because Mauer was on constantly in front of him.'


When I've seen Mauer's RISP numbers quoted, it's usually a retaliatory statement in response to "herp derp Mauer doesn't drive in enough runners to make $20m herp derp". It's refuting a misconception, not attempting to put weight into RISP numbers.

That's my experience, anyway. YMMV.

#33 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 3,490 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:01 PM

Could it be that a double by Mauer scores someone like Revere from first ahead of him, while a double by Willingham leaves Mauer on third waiting to be driven in? This is a reason I don't trust RISP statistics very much.


Parker wrote a piece that suggested Mauer did benefit from batting behind speedy baserunners, specifically, on ground balls that he pulled.

Twins Daily - Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012

#34 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,339 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:03 PM

When I've seen Mauer's RISP numbers quoted, it's usually a retaliatory statement in response to "herp derp Mauer doesn't drive in enough runners to make $20m herp derp". It's refuting a misconception, not attempting to put weight into RISP numbers.


That's exactly how I see it.

#35 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:04 PM

When I've seen Mauer's RISP numbers quoted, it's usually a retaliatory statement in response to "herp derp Mauer doesn't drive in enough runners to make $20m herp derp". It's refuting a misconception, not attempting to put weight into RISP numbers.

That's my experience, anyway. YMMV.


Correction to what I wrote. That quote came from Gleeman, not Fangraphs, so apologies on that. Wasn't purposely trying to deceive right there, just thought I had gotten it from Fangraphs...

Mauer's career numbers with RISP are quite a bit better than his normal numbers though. 20 points in BA, 55 points in OBP, 30 points in slg%

Edited by ThePuck, 12 February 2013 - 12:06 PM.


#36 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:04 PM

Parker wrote a piece that suggested Mauer did benefit from batting behind speedy baserunners, specifically, on ground balls that he pulled.

Twins Daily - Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012


I think it's pretty obvious that high contact, high average, low power guys will benefit the most from hitting behind speedy baserunners.

#37 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:05 PM

Correction to what I wrote. That quote came from Gleeman, not Fangraphs, so apologies on that. Wasn't purposely trying to deceive right there, just thought I had gotten it from Fangraphs...


No worries. Gleeman isn't exactly a traditional baseball RBI guy. The point is the same.

#38 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 3,490 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:08 PM

I think it's pretty obvious that high contact, high average, low power guys will benefit the most from hitting behind speedy baserunners.


Specifically a lefthanded one.

#39 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:09 PM

In any event, I learned something today, which is awesome. I'm going to research that a bit more.

My sincerest apologies to ashburyjohn.

#40 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,657 posts

Posted 12 February 2013 - 12:12 PM

Mauer's career numbers with RISP are quite a bit better than his normal numbers though. 20 points in BA, 55 points in OBP, 30 points in slg%


He could be one of those outlier players. While I haven't seen enough evidence to prove the idea, I don't think it's a coincidence that the players with extraordinary bat control (Gwynn, Molitor) were the "outliers" in that RISP study. It makes sense that the guys who can choose where the ball is hit do better with RISP than the "swing away" type of players.

But those guys are an extremely rare breed. Is Mauer on the level of a Molitor and Gwynn? Right now, yes. Whether that stays true as he ages is another matter entirely.