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KLAW's top 100 list is out.

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#1 righty8383

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:20 AM

Keith Law has released his top 100 prospects list and, as expected, 7 Twins made the list. The best part, they all ranked in the top 65!

#11: Miguel Sano
#22: Byron Buxton
#41: Kyle Gibson
#49: Aaron Hicks
#59: Oswaldo Arcia
#61: Alex Meyer
#65: Eddie Rosario

Some pretty good reads on these players too for those that have insider.

#2 righty8383

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:25 AM

I'm guessing the biggest suprise for most people will be Gibson ahead of Meyer. KLAW notes that some in the industry think he may be a bullpen candidate down the road. But with the Twins lack of quality starters, he will stay in the rotation until he proves he can't handle it.

#3 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:28 AM

not only 7 in the top 10, but 7 in the top 65. That's pretty incredible!

#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:41 AM

I think his order is about right, too. I don't have insider but can someone tell me what he general opinion of Hicks was?

#5 righty8383

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:49 AM

A lot of stuff that we already know. Really good defender with and 80 arm. Better from the right side but has improved enough from the left side to stay as a swich hitter. I'll share the last little paragraph about him...

If he develops 20-homer power, he's a potential star; if not, he's a very good everyday player thanks to his defense and potential for high OBPs.


#6 Physics Guy

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:09 AM

Love this quote for Arcia:

"Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone..."

#7 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:35 AM

Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 05 February 2013 - 11:39 AM.


#8 jtrinaldi

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:45 AM

Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.

Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.
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#9 Twins Twerp

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:06 PM

Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.


I don't know if I agree with that. There are three reasons I feel this way. I think people will tend to agree with me.

1. The Twins rarely push prospects more than one level per season. (There are examples such as Mauer and Arcia last year, but they usually stay in the minors longer than other organizations would keep them, right, wrong or indifferent).
2. Rosario is learning a new position and NEEDS extra time at lower levels to work on footwork.
3. I think the organization will try to keep Sano and Rosario together through minors.

#10 Chance

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:26 PM

Agreed

#11 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:36 PM

Slow promotion or not, did anyone notice that Rosario is KLaw's top 2B? Higher than DeShields jr. and Wong.

#12 lightfoot789

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:23 PM

I don't know if I agree with that. There are three reasons I feel this way. I think people will tend to agree with me.

1. The Twins rarely push prospects more than one level per season. (There are examples such as Mauer and Arcia last year, but they usually stay in the minors longer than other organizations would keep them, right, wrong or indifferent).
2. Rosario is learning a new position and NEEDS extra time at lower levels to work on footwork.
3. I think the organization will try to keep Sano and Rosario together through minors.


I agree

#13 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:54 PM

Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.


He'll have to improve defensively before he moves through the system quickly. I saw him play in Beloit last year, and he made two truly bone-head plays at second. Granted, it's just one game, and I expect he'll pick it up, but clearly he's still a work in progress.

#14 Physics Guy

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:06 PM

Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John.


Yes, KLaw saw him in the Arizona Fall League and gave a glowing report. I am not surprised he has him ranked that high.

#15 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 03:10 PM

I saw him play in Beloit last year, and he made two truly bone-head plays at second.


Early season, or late? If it was July or August then that would be worrisome.

#16 drunksam

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 03:17 PM

KLAW also ranked our system overall as #2. That's optimistic for the furture and it is good to know who number 2 works for.
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#17 B Richard

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 03:28 PM

KLAW also ranked our system overall as #2. That's optimistic for the furture and it is good to know who number 2 works for.


I really appreciate the reference there- funniest thing I've read all day

#18 Brad Swanson

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:34 PM

KLaw tends to be a bit lower on the big name pitching prospects. He must really like Gibson to have him that high on his list.

#19 Pitz

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:20 PM

I just signed up for a 30 day free trial of ESPN Insider just so I could read the prospect stuff that Law is putting out this week.
The thing that struck me most about his comments regarding Twins prospects was regarding Rosario's floor: an everyday outfielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles.
Obviously that's more valuable if he can stick at 2B but that seems like a really nice floor!

#20 drjim

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:39 PM

I just signed up for a 30 day free trial of ESPN Insider just so I could read the prospect stuff that Law is putting out this week.
The thing that struck me most about his comments regarding Twins prospects was regarding Rosario's floor: an everyday outfielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles.
Obviously that's more valuable if he can stick at 2B but that seems like a really nice floor!


I would think so considering only 13 players hit that combination (.280/40 2Bs) in the entire majors last year.
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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:56 PM

Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.


How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.

#22 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:58 PM

Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.


You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

#23 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:16 PM

How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.


I love Arcia, but is he top 60 material? I don't know about that. I'd go 80s. You completely ignored defense by the way, which is exactly the reason why. Baseball is more than just hitting the ball often and far. It's why an average year from Denard Span was just as valuable as Josh Willingham's best season. I didn't say it in my last post, but I love tools if it isn't obvious. Sure it's a corner outfield spot, but I think defense should be valued everywhere. His arm is not very impressionable and he isn't quick nor fast. Back to tools now. That's 2 really good ones out of 5. Plus, he also racks a disciprine like you said. I think he'll be a fantastic clean up guy and is about as close to a sure thing as possible, but I look at the ceiling more than the floor. There's a lot that he isn't capable of bringing. The standards for an outfielder are pretty high and especially on a team with a system chock full of good ones.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 05 February 2013 - 09:20 PM.


#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:22 PM

I love Arcia, but is he top 60 material? I don't know about that. I'd go 80s. You completely ignored defense by the way, which is exactly the reason why. Baseball is more than just hitting the ball often and far. It's why an average year from Denard Span was just as valuable as Josh Willingham's best season. I didn't say it in my last post, but I love tools if it isn't obvious. Sure it's a corner outfield spot, but I think defense should be valued everywhere. His arm is not very impressionable and he isn't quick nor fast. Back to tools now. That's 2 really good ones out of 5. Plus, he also racks a disciprine like you said. I think he'll be a fantastic clean up guy and is about as close to a sure thing as possible, but I look at the ceiling more than the floor.


I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there.

As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.

#25 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:30 PM

Hate to post 3 in a row, but one more thing. I'm pretty much sold that this year we'll find out so much more about Rosario, Sano, Vargas, etc. Sure, we find out more every year and that sound like a generalization. To further elaborate, Ft. Myers has really been a difficult step for quite a few guys in the past (Namely Morales, Hicks). That may be a lot different because of the constant roster changes, but I feel like there's still a negative stigma about the place. It just seems like a benchmark for some reason.

#26 FrodaddyG

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:43 PM

Hate to post 3 in a row, but one more thing. I'm pretty much sold that this year we'll find out so much more about Rosario, Sano, Vargas, etc. Sure, we find out more every year and that sound like a generalization. To further elaborate, Ft. Myers has really been a difficult step for quite a few guys in the past (Namely Morales, Hicks). That may be a lot different because of the constant roster changes, but I feel like there's still a negative stigma about the place. It just seems like a benchmark for some reason.

Ft. Myers is definitely a big step. It isn't like the Midwest League is typically a hitters' paradise, but the FSL is where hitting prospects (and most of the nation's elderly) go to die.

#27 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:44 PM

I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there.

As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.


He reminds me a lot of Jason Kubel when looking at both their previous minor league history. Same build, same handedness, same position, both fast risers, and both absolutely crushed New Britain. They look even closer when you throw out that Kubel decided to steal bases for one season. Arcia may not be as good a prospect that Kubel ever was, but professionally it could be different. As an eerie potential forecast, we can see now that Jason has only had one season where he provided more than 1 WAR. His contact has never been quite what it was then though and he doesn't have much to fall back on now (tools!) to become more than a minor upgrade.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 05 February 2013 - 09:48 PM.


#28 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:46 PM

Ft. Myers is definitely a big step. It isn't like the Midwest League is typically a hitters' paradise, but the FSL is where hitting prospects (and most of the nation's elderly) go to die.


Your post was funny and I loved it! The Florida, old people connection simply genius!

#29 Twins Twerp

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:46 PM

We have two legit center fielders and no middle infield prospects. The move for Rosario seems pretty self explanatory. His bat will play much better at 2nd than center. Many around baseball also think that sano will end up in the outfield as he may outgrow thirdbase. Rosario definitely provides more value both as a prospect and to the twins organization as a mi guy. That is just my opinion but I will bet most twinsdaily members will agree Rosario needs to stay at 2nd to maximize his value.

#30 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:51 PM

We have two legit center fielders and no middle infield prospects. The move for Rosario seems pretty self explanatory. His bat will play much better at 2nd than center. Many around baseball also think that sano will end up in the outfield as he may outgrow thirdbase. Rosario definitely provides more value both as a prospect and to the twins organization as a mi guy. That is just my opinion but I will bet most twinsdaily members will agree Rosario needs to stay at 2nd to maximize his value.


Maximize his value for the Twins as in "an organizational plus". Just about any place else though and it's unchanged and could possibly be higher. And since no one can predict the future, maybe the Twins develop an addiction to trading outfielders, some don't pan out, and he's the man for the job? I'm just thinking that he's not much off Aaron Hicks if in Center.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 05 February 2013 - 09:55 PM.