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Draft Pick Values

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#1 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 08:11 PM

According to BA, pick values will increase by about 7%. Last year, the Twins had a pool value of over $12 million. This year they will be around $8.2 million.

After Bourn and Lohse sign, the picks will move and so their pool will change, so these are the Twins Top 10 round picks as of today.

Round 1, 4 overall - $4,494,000
Round 2, 42 overall - $1,312,890
Round 3, 78 overall - $695,179
Round 4, 110 overall - $462,989
Round 5, 140 overall - $346,573
Round 6, 170 overall - $259,582
Round 7, 200 overall - $194,419
Round 8, 230 overall - $156,862
Round 9, 260 overall - $146,483
Round 10, 290 overall - $136,853

Without losing a pick (and paying a tax) and not saving on the other picks, the Twins could pay their #4 pick up to $4,900,000. Mark Appel turned down $3.8 last year and was said to asking for closer to $7 million. On the other side of that coin, after Buxton's $6 million, the next highest bonus was Carlos Correa, who signed for $4,800,000. So even though their bonus pool is much smaller, the Twins can still stand to pay a historically large bonus to the #4 pick.

I know the draft is still months away... but I'm gearing up for it already.

#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 08:24 PM

Appel had better go in the first two picks or he's going to end up leaving piles of money on the table. He has virtually no bargaining power this draft.

#3 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 08:36 PM

For those unaware, Jeremy is the official Unofficial Draft Expert of Twins Daily who we should make official! (Or something like that). I'm told that this draft is "horrible", but they will certainly take someone at #4 with some major upside.

I do love what the Astros did in the 2012 draft. They took Correia as much for signability as for the fact that he is a legit hitting talent, but they used the extra $2.4 million he signed below the cap and took Lance McCullers and gave him $2.5 million and also got Rio Ruiz in the 4th round and went overslot for him.

#4 johnnydakota

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 08:44 PM

According to BA, pick values will increase by about 7%. Last year, the Twins had a pool value of over $12 million. This year they will be around $8.2 million.

After Bourn and Lohse sign, the picks will move and so their pool will change, so these are the Twins Top 10 round picks as of today.

Round 1, 4 overall - $4,494,000
Round 2, 42 overall - $1,312,890
Round 3, 78 overall - $695,179
Round 4, 110 overall - $462,989
Round 5, 140 overall - $346,573
Round 6, 170 overall - $259,582
Round 7, 200 overall - $194,419
Round 8, 230 overall - $156,862
Round 9, 260 overall - $146,483
Round 10, 290 overall - $136,853

Without losing a pick (and paying a tax) and not saving on the other picks, the Twins could pay their #4 pick up to $4,900,000. Mark Appel turned down $3.8 last year and was said to asking for closer to $7 million. On the other side of that coin, after Buxton's $6 million, the next highest bonus was Carlos Correa, who signed for $4,800,000. So even though their bonus pool is much smaller, the Twins can still stand to pay a historically large bonus to the #4 pick.

I know the draft is still months away... but I'm gearing up for it already.


thanks Jeremy is very helpful information

#5 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 09:00 PM

You bet. (Thanks for the plug, Seth.)

There is still a lot of time for this draft to be "horrible" or be just okay. I think there is a considerable amount of upside, so you might see guys getting bigger bonuses to skip college even though they are a looonnnggg ways away. The whole signing vs college decision has become a slippery slope that has hurt the college game. Personally, I would like to see more guys go to college and develop there. At the same time, turning down a million dollars at 18 isn't something I would ever consider a "smart move".

As far as Appel goes, Brock, you're right. He was given bad advice last year. Part of me thinks there are some GMs out there that would enjoy sticking it to Boras (again!) and Appel is collateral damage. The best move Appel could make is stay healthy and switch advisors before the Draft. If he doesn't, I wouldn't touch Appel even though he's the top talent on the board (right now).

(Mark, if you're reading this... I'll give you better advice than the Boras Co. and I come much cheaper.)

#6 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 09:40 PM

Very cool Jeremy.
I can see that a GM would offer Appel less than slot, insisting that they need the higher dollars to sign younger players.
Unless Boras has a back door to effectively have Appel become a free agent & get teams into a bidding war for him I don't see how this could possibly have been a good thing for Appel.
These slot numbers are not so small that the kids can ignore the amounts, but they keep the Boras type agents from playing games with a kid's career. Appel is the slow learner.

#7 AM.

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 09:49 PM

#42 is a pretty high pick for a second rounder...there are a lot fewer sandwich picks this year.

#8 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 09:56 PM

#42 is a pretty high pick for a second rounder...there are a lot fewer sandwich picks this year.


I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.

#9 darin617

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:03 PM

Appel had better go in the first two picks or he's going to end up leaving piles of money on the table. He has virtually no bargaining power this draft.


So when would Appel be declared a FA when Boras pulls the same old crap and believes that he is worth $7M? What is the signing deadline for drafted players to sign?

Come on Jeremy, this is an easy question for you.

#10 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:26 PM

So when would Appel be declared a FA when Boras pulls the same old crap and believes that he is worth $7M? What is the signing deadline for drafted players to sign?

Come on Jeremy, this is an easy question for you.


Worked well for Matt Harrington, didn't it?

#11 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:40 PM

So when would Appel be declared a FA when Boras pulls the same old crap and believes that he is worth $7M? What is the signing deadline for drafted players to sign?

Come on Jeremy, this is an easy question for you.


Around July 15, depends on where it falls in the week. Unless something has changed, Appel would have to re-enter the draft again next year if he doesn't sign. He could play Indy ball, but Aaron Crow did that a few years ago and still had to go through the draft process.

#12 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:44 PM

I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.


For sure, less guys tied to compensation and the team who signs has their pick disappear instead of having it go to the team who lost the player.

There were 12 "competitive balance" picks added, but still far less picks total.

#13 Dance with Disco Dan

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:02 PM

Boras is a frustrating character. I want him to suffer the consequences when he toughs-up during negotiations against reason and against the best interests of his client. Unfortunately, that can't happen without the real loser being the kid who followed his advice. Shame on any pitcher with the hubris to turn his back on over $3 million (Pirate slot) and probably more if he hadn't floated a number pre-draft that only the first couple teams could give him. Still, I can't wish an injury or regression on a talented 22 year-old. But I can throw shade on the adults in the equation - Boras and his parents.

Does anyone think Boras is going to be holding his breath during every Appel pitch during a full college season? He'll be too busy counting his commissions from Fielder et al. and ducking Michael Bourn's phone calls. But I bet Mom and Dad Appel will be sweating every pitch. And they should.

Edited by Dance with Disco Dan, 04 February 2013 - 11:05 PM.


#14 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:37 AM

Around July 15, depends on where it falls in the week. Unless something has changed, Appel would have to re-enter the draft again next year if he doesn't sign. He could play Indy ball, but Aaron Crow did that a few years ago and still had to go through the draft process.


Yeah, he'll still have to play indy ball and I don't know of a prospect who hasn't left a lot of money on the table by going that route. It's a bad decision and it prolongs his free agency by another year (which would be two years at that point). It was stupid to leave the money on the table he did last season. If he has any faith in his ability at all, he'd easily make that money back (and then a lot more on top of it) with one additional year of free agency during his prime (age 29 or so) years.

#15 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:36 AM

I guess I'm one of the few that actually hopes Appel drops to us. He'd instantly be our #1 pitching prospect, and unlike a few other guys near the top, no question of whether he can stay a starter. I argued with Pirate fans last year over this but I don't think Appel/Boras made a mistake. They made a gamble, for sure, but one that they are likely to profit from. And while I don't really like Boras, I think he's one of the few people around baseball that is capable of fighting the owners for more money. Baseball's worth has increased faster than player salaries and I think too many owners (esp ours) keep payrolls far lower than what they can really afford.

#16 kab21

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:45 AM

At this point if Manaea and Stanek are off the board then you take Appel if he's there. The worst case is getting the 2014 #5 pick in what could be a better draft. but who knows what players could emerge during the spring HS and college seasons.

#17 birdwatcher

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:06 AM

Do the scouts regard Manaea, Stanek, and Appel as future aces?

#18 righty8383

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:28 AM

Do the scouts regard Manaea, Stanek, and Appel as future aces?


Some might. But then again some use the term "ace" more loosely than others

#19 Vervehound

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:38 AM

I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.


yep. this pick would probably be around pick number 60 in the old cba.

b.a. came out with their top 50 prospects the other day. four is theoretically a tough spot to be in with three top college arms and the teams ahead of you needing impact arms but there are a few second tier pitchers who could emerge. my money is on dillon overton from oklahoma to make a push to be in the top five before it's over.

#20 Dance with Disco Dan

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:38 AM

I guess I'm one of the few that actually hopes Appel drops to us. He'd instantly be our #1 pitching prospect, and unlike a few other guys near the top, no question of whether he can stay a starter. I argued with Pirate fans last year over this but I don't think Appel/Boras made a mistake. They made a gamble, for sure, but one that they are likely to profit from. And while I don't really like Boras, I think he's one of the few people around baseball that is capable of fighting the owners for more money. Baseball's worth has increased faster than player salaries and I think too many owners (esp ours) keep payrolls far lower than what they can really afford.


They are certainly taking a risk - a big one. It is known that Appel turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates (more than max slot for pick no. 8). It was also reported, but is less certain, that Houston offered Appel the Corriea deal - i.e. accept $6 million as the first pick.

So, depending on what is true, Boras convinced Appel that it was worth risking injury and regression for a maximum upside of $2-4 million. Significant money but enough to turn your back on $4-6 million knowing that the health of a young pitcher is very tenuous? I couldn't in good conscience recommend that gamble to a young man. Boras did. We'll see how it turns out.

That said, I would take Appel in a heartbeat at no. 4 if he has a similar season again this year. He is a talent. I don't see how Appel could reject max slot as a 4-year college player.

#21 kab21

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:42 AM

Do the scouts regard Manaea, Stanek, and Appel as future aces?


Probably #2's with high floors. If the draft featured 3 collegiate future aces then it wouldn't be considered a fairly weak draft. As of right now they are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of Gausman, Appel and Zimmer last year. And certainly well below Cole, Hultzman, Bauer and Bundy (a HS'er), the top 4 picks from 2011. that draft was ridiculously good.

#22 Vervehound

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:47 AM

Some might. But then again some use the term "ace" more loosely than others


of that group, the only one with a chance to be a number one, imo, is manaea. he's easily the first pick in the draft for me - he's physically a monster with a great arm and rapidly improving secondary stuff. we haven't seen his best yet. appel and stanek both have no. 2 upside.

#23 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:28 PM

My opinion is Appel and Manaea have the potential to be true Ace pitchers, and Manaea has farther to go to get there. Stanek could be quick to the majors, but lacks a dominant strikeout pitch. They could all make their case to go very early. The prep pair of outfielders from Georgia, as well as a few college bats, could sneak into the top 5 as well. If the draft happened today, the Twins would have a shot at getting one of the top 3 pitchers, in my opinion.

We hear a lot about players getting called up at a time to delay free agency by a year - and agents talk about how costly it is for their clients - yet, as Brock points out, Appel has likely delayed free agency by his own choice. Who knows, maybe he goes straight to the pros, but I doubt it.

The Giants drafted a player a few years back and signed him to slot, with the promise he would be a September call-up. I wonder if their is language in the CBA that would prevent that, a sorta loophole that would allow the player to get a "major league deal".

#24 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:52 PM

I'm guessing the new CBA is the cause. It made it harder for teams to qualify for draft compensation when you lose a free agent.


All the more reason to hang on to Morneau if the Twins can't get similar value. He'd likely be worthy of a qualifying offer.

#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:09 PM

Boras is a frustrating character. I want him to suffer the consequences when he toughs-up during negotiations against reason and against the best interests of his client. Unfortunately, that can't happen without the real loser being the kid who followed his advice. Shame on any pitcher with the hubris to turn his back on over $3 million (Pirate slot) and probably more if he hadn't floated a number pre-draft that only the first couple teams could give him. Still, I can't wish an injury or regression on a talented 22 year-old. But I can throw shade on the adults in the equation - Boras and his parents.

Does anyone think Boras is going to be holding his breath during every Appel pitch during a full college season? He'll be too busy counting his commissions from Fielder et al. and ducking Michael Bourn's phone calls. But I bet Mom and Dad Appel will be sweating every pitch. And they should.


If I were a player, I would certainly want Boras representing me.. He gets good deals for his clients, and at the end of the day, Mark Appel is Boras's boss. If Appel wanted to sign, he absolutely could have. I don't blame Boras, Appel is back in college because apparently he wanted to for some reason.

#26 3rd Inning Stretch

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:16 PM

Although it would be awfully redundant (although not as much after the trades this offseason), I dont think you go for need, or look at your system when youre that high in the draft...therefore, I would seriously consider one of the two GA HS outfielders if they are there. They have the highest upside of anyone in the draft IMO...Manaea is the only pitcher I would want to consider at #4.

Edited by 3rd Inning Stretch, 05 February 2013 - 01:23 PM.


#27 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:27 PM

Other than injury, Apple has the highest floor, though. He could start in the majors right now. He should he a 2 or at worst a 3. There is no downside, performances wise, to drafting him....relative to other players....given what we know today. I have no idea how you pass on a guy that is Likely to be a good starting pitcher. Lots of guys have potential, but Apple has that and a very low likelihood of not reaching that, relative to others risk.

#28 3rd Inning Stretch

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:50 PM

I disagree on Appel's floor. Also worry about injury after how Stanford has used him, which may be why I disagree on the floor...I also worry about his ability to miss bats at the major league level.

#29 Dance with Disco Dan

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:04 PM

If I were a player, I would certainly want Boras representing me.. He gets good deals for his clients, and at the end of the day, Mark Appel is Boras's boss. If Appel wanted to sign, he absolutely could have. I don't blame Boras, Appel is back in college because apparently he wanted to for some reason.


I agree that Boras has a very good track record and is deserving of a lot of praise for some of the market-setting deals he has produced. I do, however, believe that most of his ability to bring extra-value to a draft-choice client has been stripped by the current CBA. A draftee has always been limited to the binary choice of sign-with-the-team-that-drafted-him or go/return-to-school. In the past, Boras was able to "set" a top prospect's price and just wait until a team willing to step up drafted him. With the new draft-pool limits and the VERY punitive consequences of spending more than allotted, it is unlikely that any player short of a Harper-level prospect will be able to convince a team into spending significantly more than slot.

Pittsburgh offered Appel $900k over slot (roughly 30% over), which I thought was a strong offer and necessarily came at the expense of the rest of their draft class. We'll see how things play out over the next few drafts, but I'd imagine that offers 30% over slot will be rare for top of the draft players (although all bets are off if we see any more Harper-types).

I think the real story on Appel is that he and Boras played chicken with Houston on the Astros' offer of $6 million. Appel was the local kid and at the top many draft boards. When they passed on $6 million and the Astros passed on Appel, there was only a couple teams that could offer as much without going over slot (or barely over slot). Before they knew it Appel was in free fall. When Pittsburgh took Appel and offered him 30% over slot, the amount was still $2 million below what was on the table days before. Does Boras look at Appel and say, "Oops, sorry?" Or does he fire the kid up about the insult of it all and send him back to school?

Sure Appel is the de facto boss, but when the most successful agent advises his client on a course of action, its tough to imagine a 22 year-old having the backbone to go against him. And its likely Appel was of the same mind. No doubt he has an ego that was bruised when Houston said, we like you best but we want you to accept below slot. The natural reaction is to tell them to pound sand. Maybe they truly believed Houston was bluffing and would take him regardless. Either way, I believe they compounded the mistake of not taking the $6 million by not taking Pittsburgh's $3.8 million. Another year of wear and tear on his arm and the risk of injury or regression are very real. I hope it works out for him but hubris is a killer - it just doesn't kill the agents. Boras will be fine however it works out.

#30 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 03:17 PM

Sure Appel is the de facto boss, but when the most successful agent advises his client on a course of action, its tough to imagine a 22 year-old having the backbone to go against him.


In addition to Appel being the boss (as ARod also stated emphatically back in the day), it's no accident of Fate that Boras is his agent. Appel chose him, presumably because he wanted the hardball approach if it was warranted.