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Baltimore Sun's Connelly Thinks Saunders Isn't Winding Up In Minnesota

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#21 edavis0308

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:25 PM

You guys really need to read what I said.

We know that the Twins will be back to "managing" the budget. So while I think there is more money to be spend who knows what the front office thinks. I'm guessing they're not going be spending over $90M for a while which puts them in the middle of the league. If you have $20m coming off the books next year, $7-$8M is over 1/3 of that.

Mourneau will be a FA, you might want to keep him around if this season goes well. Maybe there are better options to be had in 2014-2015 than Suanders. If you keep Morneau because he had a big year, and have Saunders on $8M you pretty well have decided not to do much in FA signings because the Twins are not going to be going to $100M+ any time soon.

So you have to make these signings figuring that they'll looking for a payroll of $80-$90M the next year or two. So if we say they don't resign Morneau and drop Blackburn and Casilla they will have something like $21-$22M "off the books". Seems to me that counting on the Twins getting rid of Morneau isn't wise. The Twins seem fairly loyal to him and I think barring a total meltdown this year like he had the past two there's no way they don't resign him unless the salary he demands gets huge.

All I'm saying is that Saunders may not fit the longterm goals of the team and if you have to commit to him for 3+ years and $24M I'm not sure it's really that great of signing. He may help this year but personally I would rather see some younger pitchers see some MLB time so we can see what the Twins have for the future. We have Gibson and some other younger pitchers that we need to find out about so the Twins can move forward. They have a lot of arms showing up at ST this year and I can't see where Saunders will be a sure to be significantly better than some of the other options they have.


A few things. Casilla is now on the Orioles. I don't believe anyone is looking to sign Saunders for three years. Two max. If Saunders was signed, he isn't the odd man out, Correia and his $10 large are. Gibson is going to have ~130 IP limit (though I'm not positive that is official). A handful of other guys are also coming off arm injuries, along with Hendriks still needing to actually put it together at the major league level. The whole starting pitching situation has been discussed at length. I dont think 2/$14 for a left handed innings eater in Saunders would be the worst move this team could make, but from what it sounds that won't be enough for us to get him anyway.

#22 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:25 PM

The reputation of the team, declining attendance, and the downward spiral of payroll. Fielding a better team and winning more games is sorely needed.

To the "hamstringing" portion of your comment, does that ground really need covering again? Have you looked at the payroll obligations in the future?

Yes, I did look at the future obligations. The $20M going off the books next year is Morneau and Blackburn, but are we so sure yet that we want to part ways with Morneau? If not we might need half of that to resign Morneau and then you have $7-$8M wrapped up in Saunders as well so now you're left with $2-$3M for FA signings otherwise and that's assuming the Twins plan to say at around $87M for payroll.

#23 old nurse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:25 PM

How will that money hurt us this year, or next year, or heck even 2015? What else are they going to do with it?

Office holiday party

#24 edavis0308

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:27 PM

Office holiday party


Rim shot!

#25 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:29 PM

A few things. Casilla is now on the Orioles. I don't believe anyone is looking to sign Saunders for three years. Two max. If Saunders was signed, he isn't the odd man out, Correia and his $10 large are. Gibson is going to have ~130 IP limit (though I'm not positive that is official). A handful of other guys are also coming off arm injuries, along with Hendriks still needing to actually put it together at the major league level. The whole starting pitching situation has been discussed at length. I dont think 2/$14 for a left handed innings eater in Saunders would be the worst move this team could make, but from what it sounds that won't be enough for us to get him anyway.


Yes, I realize that Casilla is with the Orioles but I was just aying that him not being on the roster reduces the payroll.

I don't think it would be a bad signing but just saying that if he wants 3 years $21-$24M it's not really worth it unless you think he's going to have trade value at the end of the season. I would certainly rather have Suanders at 2/14 than Correia for 2/10 but one of those two is done already and I can't see Correia really garnering much in a trade.

#26 edavis0308

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:33 PM

Yes, I realize that Casilla is with the Orioles but I was just aying that him not being on the roster reduces the payroll.

I don't think it would be a bad signing but just saying that if he wants 3 years $21-$24M it's not really worth it unless you think he's going to have trade value at the end of the season. I would certainly rather have Suanders at 2/14 than Correia for 2/10 but one of those two is done already and I can't see Correia really garnering much in a trade.


I bet Blackburn could use some veteran leadership assistance at AAA :D

#27 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:36 PM

I bet Blackburn could use some veteran leadership assistance at AAA :D


God I hope they don't find a reason to sign him again...lol.

#28 sorney

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:36 PM

Yeah, the quoted article doesn't quite make sense to say "if Saunders is limited to a one-year contract" and then go on to mention a two-year $15M deal is in the palm of his hand. At his age, he'd almost surely take the sure $15M, than gamble with (say) a one-year $10M deal if one were offered. Unless it's a team he just won't go to. Maybe he doesn't want the pressure of New York.

The Twins' 40-man is full. I was for signing Saunders until I realized they would have to expose one of these future Hall-of-Famers to a waiver claim. Can't take that chance.



Hehehehehe. Chalk full of future HOF'ers.

#29 twinsnorth49

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:38 PM

As always it depends on the price. For $7.5M per for more than 2 years.....no.


I don't think it would be a bad signing but just saying that if he wants 3 years $21-$24M it's not really worth it unless you think he's going to have trade value at the end of the season. I would certainly rather have Suanders at 2/14 than Correia for 2/10 but one of those two is done already and I can't see Correia really garnering much in a trade.



But....but.....you said this, which is it?

2/15 does nothing to "hamstring" this team.

#30 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:40 PM

But....but.....you said this, which is it?

2/15 does nothing to "hamstring" this team.


Do you read? Where do I make conflicted statements?

I said if he wants more than 2/14 then no that didn't change anywhere in either of the posts you quote. I could handle 2/14 but it sounds like he wants more than that in years and money.

#31 ThePuck

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:40 PM

You guys really need to read what I said.

We know that the Twins will be back to "managing" the budget. So while I think there is more money to be spend who knows what the front office thinks. I'm guessing they're not going be spending over $90M for a while which puts them in the middle of the league. If you have $20m coming off the books next year, $7-$8M is over 1/3 of that.

Mourneau will be a FA, you might want to keep him around if this season goes well. Maybe there are better options to be had in 2014-2015 than Suanders. If you keep Morneau because he had a big year, and have Saunders on $8M you pretty well have decided not to do much in FA signings because the Twins are not going to be going to $100M+ any time soon.

So you have to make these signings figuring that they'll looking for a payroll of $80-$90M the next year or two. So if we say they don't resign Morneau and drop Blackburn and Casilla they will have something like $21-$22M "off the books". Seems to me that counting on the Twins getting rid of Morneau isn't wise. The Twins seem fairly loyal to him and I think barring a total meltdown this year like he had the past two there's no way they don't resign him unless the salary he demands gets huge.

All I'm saying is that Saunders may not fit the longterm goals of the team and if you have to commit to him for 3+ years and $24M I'm not sure it's really that great of signing. He may help this year but personally I would rather see some younger pitchers see some MLB time so we can see what the Twins have for the future. We have Gibson and some other younger pitchers that we need to find out about so the Twins can move forward. They have a lot of arms showing up at ST this year and I can't see where Saunders will be a sure to be significantly better than some of the other options they have.


I read what you wrote...I just couldn't believe my eyes

#32 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:42 PM

I read what you wrote...I just couldn't believe my eyes


OK. Whatever.

Obviously you're not allowed to post a dissenting opinion around here. lol.

#33 old nurse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:43 PM

Yes, I did look at the future obligations. The $20M going off the books next year is Morneau and Blackburn, but are we so sure yet that we want to part ways with Morneau? If not we might need half of that to resign Morneau and then you have $7-$8M wrapped up in Saunders as well so now you're left with $2-$3M for FA signings otherwise and that's assuming the Twins plan to say at around $87M for payroll.


50% of revenue should be around a 110-120 million budget. Unless senility has caught up with me and I can no longer do math, there is only one miniscule possibilty that the Twins would ever have to worry about a second year to Saunders. The minuscule possibility is Ryan trading for 4 players before the start of the season who are eligible free agents at the end of the season. When the season ends, Ryan offers all of his free agents arbitrarion and they all accept.

#34 old nurse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:44 PM

OK. Whatever.

Obviously you're not allowed to post a dissenting opinion around here. lol.


Don't be discouraged.

#35 mike wants wins

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:53 PM

The Twins get 25 million in new revenue next year, right? I see no chance they are budget constrained in 2014 or 2015, unless the goal is to spend 30% of revenue on the roster.

#36 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:56 PM

50% of revenue should be around a 110-120 million budget. Unless senility has caught up with me and I can no longer do math, there is only one miniscule possibilty that the Twins would ever have to worry about a second year to Saunders. The minuscule possibility is Ryan trading for 4 players before the start of the season who are eligible free agents at the end of the season. When the season ends, Ryan offers all of his free agents arbitrarion and they all accept.


Sure, assuming they stick to the 50% rule. However they are already below that for this season ($213m revenu in 2012) and we'll have to see what the revenue does in 2013 if they have another bad year when revenue stayed about the same last year as in 2011.

In theory they should be around $105M this year. So they'd have to increase payroll/spending by $30-$40M over this year to get to those numbers if my math is right.

#37 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:57 PM

The Twins get 25 million in new revenue next year, right? I see no chance they are budget constrained in 2014 or 2015, unless the goal is to spend 30% of revenue on the roster.


Where does the extra $25M come from? Just asking because I must have missed that.

#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 01:58 PM

Where does the extra $25M come from? Just asking because I must have missed that.


New national television deal.

#39 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 02:02 PM

Late last decade the Twins had Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn, Garza and Liriano as rotation options. For most of that time they neglected free agent starting pitching because the spots appeared all locked up. I'd hate for the team to have any excuse to ignore pitching upgrades simply because in 2014, Gibson, Hendricks and Diamond are locks along with Correia and Saunders simply because they are already under contract. Saunders signed for 2014 should not be a concern when considering free agent pitching, but we've seen this club overlook free agents in the past because all five spots were "locked."

#40 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 02:09 PM

New national television deal.

Oh...yeah forgot all about that.

They better be increasing payroll then.



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