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Reusse: Optimistic About 2013 Twins

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#61 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 08:25 PM

I'm hearing a lot about how the Twins shouldn't be expected to improve offensively this year. Point me to a position other than LF where they are unlikely to improve or maintain. I'm not seeing it.


First, this team has all but abandoned any speed in its game. Given the home ballpark plays best to right-handed slugging and gap-and-run players - the team has only two hitters that fit well into either of those categories. (One of which, in Plouffe, remains with question marks)

Just position by position - LF is likely a dip, CF doesn't even have someone manning it at this point and at least had a quality player there last year, RF is probably a wash with different skill sets and a dramatic defensive drop-off, SS/2B is at least as bad with minimal hope to improve, Plouffe is a huge mystery, Doumit was unusually healthy, and we got a lot of ABs from Morneau and Mauer which could be seen as good fortune.

I like Parmalee and I'd be a betting man Benson pulls a Span on us, but even then I have serious doubts about a slow-footed team in a big stadium.

#62 ThePuck

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 08:45 PM

First, this team has all but abandoned any speed in its game. Given the home ballpark plays best to right-handed slugging and gap-and-run players - the team has only two hitters that fit well into either of those categories. (One of which, in Plouffe, remains with question marks)

Just position by position - LF is likely a dip, CF doesn't even have someone manning it at this point and at least had a quality player there last year, RF is probably a wash with different skill sets and a dramatic defensive drop-off, SS/2B is at least as bad with minimal hope to improve, Plouffe is a huge mystery, Doumit was unusually healthy, and we got a lot of ABs from Morneau and Mauer which could be seen as good fortune.

I like Parmalee and I'd be a betting man Benson pulls a Span on us, but even then I have serious doubts about a slow-footed team in a big stadium.


Benson has some speed...he's quite fast...covers a lot of ground. Just sayin'

#63 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:04 PM

Not only "can" he hit like **** at the bottom of the order, he most likely will.


Yay!


Alright... Let's go with... .225... Let's live a little!!!

#64 snepp

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:09 PM

Alright... Let's go with... .225... Let's live a little!!!


You optimists and your silly half-full glasses.


.223, that's as high as I'll go!

#65 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:13 PM

You optimists and your silly half-full glasses.


.223, that's as high as I'll go!


Deal... Let's call Florimon tell him his batting average is set so he can focus on D.

God that was so easy.

#66 old nurse

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:17 PM

I don't know that the rotation is better on paper than it was a year ago, but they'll almost certainly perform better.


On paper the staff that finished 2011 and was expected to pitch in 2012 is probably better than the 2013 staff on paper. Old age and injuries took a toll. I will never understand what happened to Liriano. As the season plays out the fans will learn what improvewments and return to health. A real optimist could think that at the end of the year, Worley, Diamond, Pelfrey and Gibson are pretty darn good pitchers. Harden could be a bonus. Hendricks a bonus

Edited by old nurse, 28 January 2013 - 09:23 PM.


#67 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:25 PM

On paper the staff that finished 2011 and was expected to pitch in 2012 is probably better than the 2013 staff on paper. Old age and injuries took a toll. I will never understand what happened to Liriano. As the season plays out the fans will learn what improvewments and return to health. A real optimist could think that at the end of the year, Worley, Diamond, Pelfrey and Gibson are pretty darn good pitchers. Harden could be a bonus. Hendricks a bonus


Liriano doesn't understand what happened to Liriano.

#68 TheLeviathan

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:28 PM

Benson has some speed...he's quite fast...covers a lot of ground. Just sayin'


Yeah, but first he has to make the team and get on base. I think anyone projecting rookies is just taking a wild guess, good or bad. I like Benson a lot, really looking forward to seeing his at-bats, even in ST.

#69 ThePuck

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:34 PM

Yeah, but first he has to make the team and get on base. I think anyone projecting rookies is just taking a wild guess, good or bad. I like Benson a lot, really looking forward to seeing his at-bats, even in ST.


Yeah, I'm a fan of his as well.

#70 Alex

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 10:03 PM

I'm hearing a lot about how the Twins shouldn't be expected to improve offensively this year. Point me to a position other than LF where they are unlikely to improve or maintain. I'm not seeing it.


My point was overall whether or not the improvements in the lineup would be able to replace what was lost both defensively and offensively. I'd agree that the Twins should be better offensively next year, but as many pointed out, there are question marks.

Just offensively, though, The two biggest are Parmelee and whomever plays CF. Parmelee should definitely be a plus, but I don't think it's unreasonable to assume CF won't be an upgrade offensively.

Florimon's career minor league OPS is 100 points less than Dozier and even Doziers awful season was better than Florimon's MLB at bats.

So, I don't think it's too big of a jump to say Dozier/Carrol/Casilla getting most of the at-bats might actually be better than Florimon/Carroll/Escobar (especially if Escobar is getting more ABs than Carroll) as frightening as that sounds.

In total that leaves 4 of 8 positions (both MI spots, CF, and LF) which, at least IMO, have a good chance to be worse than last season. If Parmelee has the season everyone hopes, he'll likely make up for a good chunk of that, provided they're not too far behind last year's numbers.

On the other hand if CF ends up being better then this year's lineup is dramatically improved.

You did a great article last season on the starting pitching involving coin tosses, and while I think the offense will improve it does rest on some coin tosses. If a couple come up heads, the offense could be dramatically better.

Edited by Alex, 28 January 2013 - 10:14 PM.


#71 jokin

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 11:42 PM

Parmelee is a better hitter than Revere. I don't know how you could argue otherwise. Their offensive value might be a little closer when you consider Revere's base-stealing ability but still. Parmelee was better in the minors and has been better in early MLB exposure. He's certainly a better fit in an offensive position like RF.


Par for the course.


The extended thread about the top of the order and possibly moving Mauer up in the order, examines the Twins 2013 alternatives to last year's 9,1 and 2 hitters. The Twins had the the third-best number 9 slot numbers (.303 OBP) and were in the upper half to upper third when especially emphasising Span and Revere's numbers, respectively, in the 1 and 2 slots. I see little to no evidence that the club's replacements this year that can come anywhere close to matching the 2012 numbers.

I further suggested that it was well worth the experiment to go all AL East-style and experiment with Parmelee in the #2 hole. This is really the only shot that this team has at matching even close to the performance that the club got in just one of the three plate-setting spots in the order.

Edited by jokin, 29 January 2013 - 12:06 AM.


#72 The Wise One

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 11:55 PM

Sorry, as a lifelong Twins fan, I'll be here per usual, pointing out imcompetence and hypocrisy and demanding that changes be made.

Now go back, shut your eyes real tight, and start in again on your Make-A-Wish dreaming campaign.


This from the person who stated they could get Bogaerts from the Red Sox for a Twins veteran and a prospect. Are you really that two faced? Are you any relation to EOR from Winne the Pooh?

#73 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 12:27 AM

A real optimist could think that at the end of the year, Worley, Diamond, Pelfrey and Gibson are pretty darn good pitchers.


I think I saw what you did there...

#74 shs_59

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 12:27 AM

Well going off strictly fangraphs from 2012 / (2011) for Pelfrey, Harden.

They think Diamond is a #2 starter, Joe Saunders (if we sign him) a #3 starter and Worley and Correa #4 types. Worley could be a #3.

Plug in Pelfrey/ Gibson/ Harden / Hendriks into the 5th spot. and suddenly The Twins could approach winning 70-75 games, maybe ehh. ?

Problem is to get to .500 or better you need an ace (J. Shields, healthy S. Baker, A. Sanchez, 2008 Liriano, R. Dempster, R.A. Dickey) things the Twins simply just do not have. (Gibby, Meyer, May, Berrios? maybe one day)

plus i don't trust our entire middle of the field CF, SS, 2B enough to be too excited for 2013, come 2014 and certainly 2015 i'll be much more enthusiastic. Mastro in CF with Boggs as 4th OF'er, Escobar/ Florimon at SS and Carroll at 2b. (to start with in April)

I think AAA should look something like this come April:

OF : Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, and Evan Bigley
INF : Diebinson Romero, Brian Dozier, Dinkelman/ Beresford , Collabello
C : Lehhman or Herrmann. or whoever really.

SP: Hendriks, Harden, Hermsen, Deduno, DeVries.

with Arcia, May and Meyer in AA. Assuming Arcia jumping to AAA sometime in May or June. & Hopefully I pray every night long and hard Hicks doesn't get called to majors untill late July/ August/ September.

Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AAA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-A) 5. J.O. Berrios (P-AA) 6.Nick Gordon (SS-RK)  7. *Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8.Jorge Polanco (2B-AA)  9. L. Thorpe (SP-A) 10. *Trevor May (SP-AAA) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-AAA) 12.Travis Harrison (OF-A+) 13.Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A+) 15.Nick Burdi (RP-A)  Just Missed :P P Tyler Duffey, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.


#75 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 12:29 AM

This from the person who stated they could get Bogaerts from the Red Sox for a Twins veteran and a prospect. Are you really that two faced? Are you any relation to EOR from Winne the Pooh?


Don't put words in my mouth. I never said what you said I said.

Boagaerts was only gettable in a Mauer trade, Genius, oops, I mean, WiseOne... (BTW, you mispelled Eeyore, your brainship)

The point was. and still is.... that there were 3 other viable options on the Red Sox depth chart obviously available for much less in trade.

#76 shs_59

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 12:34 AM

I should say i expect Willingham to regress from 2012.

possibly Doumit and Maestro also.

Mauer and Morny are kind of wild-cards

but hopefully Plouffe, Dozier, and maybe Parmelee all contribute a little more consistently in 2013.

for pitching we should all pray to our lord and savior neither Diamond, Burton or Perkins regresses.

Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AAA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-A) 5. J.O. Berrios (P-AA) 6.Nick Gordon (SS-RK)  7. *Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8.Jorge Polanco (2B-AA)  9. L. Thorpe (SP-A) 10. *Trevor May (SP-AAA) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-AAA) 12.Travis Harrison (OF-A+) 13.Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A+) 15.Nick Burdi (RP-A)  Just Missed :P P Tyler Duffey, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.


#77 Nick Nelson

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 12:53 AM

Problem is to get to .500 or better you need an ace (J. Shields, healthy S. Baker, A. Sanchez, 2008 Liriano, R. Dempster, R.A. Dickey

? 2008 Liriano was an ace? He threw 76 innings in the majors, and a good chunk of them were horrible. The ace of that staff was... I dunno, Blackburn? Sort of seems to disprove your whole point here.

#78 old nurse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 08:18 AM

Don't put words in my mouth. I never said what you said I said.

Boagaerts was only gettable in a Mauer trade, Genius, oops, I mean, WiseOne... (BTW, you mispelled Eeyore, your brainship)

The point was. and still is.... that there were 3 other viable options on the Red Sox depth chart obviously available for much less in trade.


Nice changing what you say and want. Nowhere in the other thread did you say Mauer. Do you also want the Twins to have a $20 million payroll and Butera as the starting catcher? What happened to win as many games as you can? Lower minor leaguers in the Boston system ready to play this year? And you call what other people post Make-a-Wish. LOL

Edited by old nurse, 29 January 2013 - 08:29 AM.


#79 old nurse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 08:28 AM

I think I saw what you did there...


Note that there were only 4 starters mentioned. It would be holding out too much hope that Harden will be all the way back. The other guy will probably be a pretty darn pitcher

#80 ScottyB

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 10:26 AM

What shocked me coming from Ruesse was in the discussion he had with Mackey about the article. The one tidbit that surprised me was a statement about Arcia. I knew he had potential, but Ruesse said he had talked to several scouts who projected Arcia's potential to Albert Pujols. I couldn't believe that - now that would be a nice addition to the lineup.

#81 sorney

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 10:39 AM

Lots of commentators sure seem to be putting a lot of faith in Diamond...
Wish I had the same faith.

#82 mcrow

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 10:44 AM

Lots of commentators sure seem to be putting a lot of faith in Diamond...
Wish I had the same faith.


Yeah, I'm not conviced Diamond will be as good as last year much less better. Hopefully he is and I'm wrong but I didn't see anything last year that leads me to believe he will be better this year.

#83 jokin

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:29 PM

Nice changing what you say and want. Nowhere in the other thread did you say Mauer. Do you also want the Twins to have a $20 million payroll and Butera as the starting catcher? What happened to win as many games as you can? Lower minor leaguers in the Boston system ready to play this year? And you call what other people post Make-a-Wish. LOL


I know your moniker says "old" but you can't be that detached from reality in forgetting that we had one of the biggest all-time thread lengths on the topic of Mauer and Red Sox just a month ago with many of us, including myself wanting to explore what basket of talent could be pried from a club hotter on Mauer than a guy in the backseat of his car with his date on prom night.

Look, all the level-headed realists are saying has been obviously clear for some time. The Twins have 2 former MVPs at top dollar and a brand new stadium and they can't decide if they are rebuilding or getting up off the 2011 canvass to take advantage of their 2 special core players for a quick reload back to relevancy. Playing the "big-picture" game on the fence rarely, if ever works. I've loudly and constantly advocated for full rebuild, but since the Twins are going to play it in the middle, I've recommended moves that help in the long run and keep the team economically viable until the next wave is firmly ensconced. The Red Sox are where the Twins were a year ago and look at what they've done, I'd just like to see the Twins attempt a similar though admittedly-restriced and smaller economic model along the same lines. It really isn't that difficult to comprehend.

I never once uttered "win as many games as you can", I have no idea where that came from.


Lower minor leaguers in the Boston system ready to play this year?


Brock Holt and Iglesias are on the Saux 40-man roster now and I would be happy with either or both of them over what the Twins have. I also don't mind getting higher-ceiling guys that project to make an impact in 2014 or 15 and getting a better placeholder until then.

Edited by jokin, 29 January 2013 - 04:43 PM.


#84 ashburyjohn

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:46 PM

The other guy will probably be a pretty darn pitcher


I see what you there.

#85 Riverbrian

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:48 PM

I hear ya Jokin... I'm not convinced that Mauer with 23 Million hanging on him will fetch much. I don't know for sure... But I gotta think that 23 Million a year will lower the return significantly.

I kinda lean toward the rebuild you are talking about but I think that rebuild would have to be done with Mauer on the roster.

#86 old nurse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 10:52 PM

I the topic of Mauer and Red Sox j

I never once uttered "win as many games as you can", I have no idea where that came from.




Brock Holt and Iglesias are on the Saux 40-man roster now and I would be happy with either or both of them over what the Twins have. I also don't mind getting higher-ceiling guys that project to make an impact in 2014 or 15 and getting a better placeholder until then.


Mauer has a no trade contract. You can blow all the air in the world about trading him but there is no report yet that says he even wants to move. To blast someone else for unreality in posting and come back with proposals that have no no basis in any reality should leave you open to criticism. Bogaerts by any account coming out of Boston is untouchable. Brock Holt was recently rated by Sickles as a C+ player. Igleseas couldn't hit mlb pitching last year in extended playing time. Where is the high ceiling.