24 replies to this topic

[Darius]

I disagree that almost all are boom or bust. There are many that may not become the offensive player expected or wished, like Buxton overall, but end up still being a good player because of defense. Pitchers that settle into decent bull pen pitchers are not busts, but never become great starters.

With guys like Sabato, if he never hits well, he well never find a place on a major league roster, where guys that can defend well will find places, unless they are so bad hitting that you would rather have a pitcher hit than them. Even then, some teams will still be willing to have them play once in awhile if they provide great defense.

But where the is value in a part time defensive specialist? You can sign those guys for minimum wage or minor league deals every year. Ehire Adrianza played a phenomenal third base with Donaldson out last year. I just read an article that ranked him as a top 10 defender on the left side of the infield based on OAA.

You don’t need to draft guys that profile as Adrianza in the first round because you’re scared of a Pete Alonso type flaming out offensively. You want to pay a multi million dollar slot and drag him through minors for 5 years, when you can sign one every year for a few hundred grand? If you’re going out and signing elite hitters, you’re paying huge money (the Twins just paid, what, about $45 million for an elite DH the last 3 years?).

You’re not getting a Mike Trout or Nolan Arenado comp at the back end of the first round.

I just don’t understand what people expect. I love the pick.

[Trov]

 

To be fair, nobody outside of an epically elite CF, SS, or C has any value if they don’t develop offensively. Even then, remember how many people wanted to exile Buxton with his early offensive struggles? Teams weren’t clamoring to sign Simmons this offseason, either, and you can get guys like Billy Hamilton on minor league deals.

You can find defense on the scrap heap. You draft for high-end offensive potential. The guys that have both aren’t sitting there are the tail end of the first round.

Agreed that outside of those positions offense is needed.However, if they can be average on offense and average on defense they will still have a home, and may not be the high end guy you would hope for, but still provide value.Could Sabato turn into a good defender at 1B and then you can live with average output there, okay, but overall my point is I am not a fan of guys that only value possibly is HR.Not saying he was the wrong pick or anything, but not a big fan of those types. 

 

Yes, many fans were down on Buxton until he was putting up some offense, but I was not one of them because I knew what he could do on defense was better than anyone we had.Now that he is at least average overall with stints above average he is viewed as a much better player than before, but he still had great value when he was hitting below .200.

[Trov]

 

But where the is value in a part time defensive specialist? You can sign those guys for minimum wage or minor league deals every year. Ehire Adrianza played a phenomenal third base with Donaldson out last year. I just read an article that ranked him as a top 10 defender on the left side of the infield based on OAA.

You don’t need to draft guys that profile as Adrianza in the first round because you’re scared of a Pete Alonso type flaming out offensively. You want to pay a multi million dollar slot and drag him through minors for 5 years, when you can sign one every year for a few hundred grand? If you’re going out and signing elite hitters, you’re paying huge money (the Twins just paid, what, about $45 million for an elite DH the last 3 years?).

You’re not getting a Mike Trout or Nolan Arenado comp at the back end of the first round.

I just don’t understand what people expect. I love the pick.

I never said he was not the right pick, I just said not a fan of those type of prospects overall.He may have been the best available and I defer to the FO on that.Yes, you can get decent defenders that do not hit great for cheap contracts, and do not advocate for drafting guys that are not expected to hit.However, if you draft a guy that is only expected to hit, and he does not then he has no value to your team in the future.Also, if they can only hit and not field, unless it is at an extremely elite level, they have little value as well.My point was, guys that can do more than just hit HR, will have fall back plans if the HR do not carry over to pro ball.Maybe Sabato will be an elite hitter and HR hitter and I will be happy, but if he is not, then there is nothing else there and no fall back for him.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

A guy who looks like he has a powerful swing that keeps the barrel in the zone a long time.The wood bat transition can have its effects and the advanced pitching of pro ball.So I am not a big fan of putting guys high on prospect rankings who havent played an inning of pro ball.The lost 2020 season is tough especially if he has any kind of adjustment struggles or injuries. 

 

With that said he is a guy who could move quickly, he is already 23 has a mans body and all indications an advanced approach. we will see where he starts the season but might be a fast riser up Twins and national prospect rankings. 

2021 might be the most interesting season for prospect watching with all the minor league changes and the complete lost 2020. 

I generally agree about putting untested draftees high on a list but putting Sabato eighth on the Twins list feels like a pretty conservative move. The system is deep but not particularly top-heavy. Sabato is ranked below a few guys who won't even make a top 100 prospect list this year.

[Linus]

The trick here is that he has to become an elite hitter for this pick to work. There are many 1st base DH types out there that can hit 20-25 homers a year. Hardly in demand.