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Source: Twins have 1 yr offer to Saunders; never made offer to Marcum

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#31 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 05:41 AM

OK. I am flabbergasted. If the Twins had simply made the Revere traded even for Worley alone, signed Baker to the same incentive-laded deal, and signed Marcum to the same incentive-laden deal while still throwing the flyer at Harden, it would have been a big ass improvement over what actually occurred. Baker at 5.5 million plus 1.5 million and Marcum at 4/4 would mean 15 million HOPEFULLY for one year and some leverage in resigning. That's better than 8.5 million now for Correia and Pelfrey, plus making that $13 million automatically anyway. Marcum is OBVIOUSLY a lower health risk and is OBVIOUSLY a higher upside than Pelfrey. And then it's Baker vs. Correia . . . .


In retrospect, the Baker fiasco started the Def-con 5 All Hands On Deck Panic Mode to sign a Correia, the numbers certainly fit, and so does the mis-evaluation of "a pretty darn good pitcher" (Not...). How do you then follow that up a few days later and throw a one-year deal at a TJ pitcher and not get a team option on the 2nd year, you know, the year when he most likely would be effective? It appears that Ryan got completely pwned on both deals.

How else but panic-mode do you explain how they missed this badly on Marcum? I am severely dissenting on the notion floated recently on TD that Ryan is still a sharp operator. He certainly hasn't acquitted himself very well with any distinction concerning addressing the starting pitching this offseason

Edited by jokin, 26 January 2013 - 05:44 AM.


#32 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 05:57 AM

We also got Pelfrey, Worley, May, Meyer, Harden.... Not all will help immediately but the Twins did bring in pitching depth currently, and some real talent for the future.


Actually, at least 4 out of 5 won't "help immediately". It's highly likely one or more may never "help" in any difference-making way. Once again, the Twins have placed themselves in a position with only a pallid "Plan A" in place, wherein virtually every variable has to come up "Aces", merely for the team to have a shot at mediocrity.

#33 TheLeviathan

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:07 AM

That would have to mean you were never competitive or you have never offered market value. Name someone who has ever come? Players view the cold weather as a negative. History as everyone tells me doesn't lie. That's the Sabermetrics of this situation.


My god man, some of this crap is getting borderline certifiable. Is this a plea for help of some kind?

#34 twinsnorth49

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:49 AM

That would have to mean you were never competitive or you have never offered market value. Name someone who has ever come? Players view the cold weather as a negative. History as everyone tells me doesn't lie. That's the Sabermetrics of this situation.


Name someone who's ever turned down top dollar because he was afraid he was going to freeze his nuts off during a couple of games....in April.

#35 Knotholemike

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 07:52 AM

During the summer, Minnesota is actually a rather lovely place, particularly areas north of the Twin Cities. I hear the hunting and fishing is pretty good. Pardon me if I've stated anything particularly obvious.


Shhh....Don't let anyone else know. This is our little secret. Why would anyone want to spoil it? Having lived all over the country, I can't think of places that offer what Minnesota has to offer. It is just reality that a lot of pro athletes and their agents want the media attention and endorsements of a big market. The perception is that Minnesota is just fly-over country. The Twins would have to overpay for top free agents which they smartly will not do.

#36 Jim H

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:14 AM

One of the advantages of being a free agent is you have at least some choice where you end up playing. It is fine to speculate on what it would take to lure certain free agents to play in Minnesota, but I suspect it depends on the free agent. Some would like to come to Minnesota "all other things being equal" some would not. Saying you have to "overpay" to lure top free agents to Minnesota, may be true in some cases, but probably isn't universally true.

What I think is true, is that Ryan makes his own evaluations, based on what his scouts and other advisors tell him. Clearly, his evaluations don't always dovetail with what many experts and bloggers believe. I don't believe he was willing to give some of the so called medium tier free agents what other GM's were willing to give, and I expect that in a few cases he may of made competitive offers and those free agents decided to take a similar offer elsewhere.

I also don't believe that Twins don't leak much information about contract offers and such to the media. Such leaks occur in other at other points, such as agents or maybe personnel in other organizations. How accurate that type of information is, depends on what you want to believe, in some cases.

Personally, I think a lot of these guys will turn out to be "overpaid" in the sense that their performance will not come very close to matching their cost, and there will have been "bargains" out of this group of free agents who will perform quite well for the money paid. Trying to perdict which will be which, which many are doing, isn't likely to be very accurate. I just hope Ryan managed to get a "bargain" or 2.

#37 Willihammer

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:52 AM

Obviously people have preferences where they want to play, that's why agents bargain for things like limited no-trade clauses.

One local boy the Twins missed out on was Edwin Jackson, he was born in Neu-Ulm.

#38 SDTwinsFan

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 12:39 PM

What is really sad is that when I saw this post, I thought: "Saunders might be a Twin??? That's great!" And 2 months ago, the thought of Saunders being a Twin would have made me sick.... At least the FO is good at lowering our expectations.

#39 Riverbrian

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 12:40 PM

I don't understand how this discussion can be presented in black and white. The signing of a Free Agent is Grey every time. Every case is different.

These guys spend their younger years under team control. If they want to play for another organization. They can't. They must wait for Free Agency. Once they reach Free Agency... The now have options that they didn't have before... They are all of sudden personally responsible for the decisions that will shape the remainder of their career. There is no black and white in this... It's only Grey... You can't say that Free Agents won't sign with Minnesota because Minnesota is a cow pasture compared to New York... And you can't say that Minnesota has a fair shot at all Free Agents. It's grey area and if Minnesota wants a Free Agent... They have to make it a good career decision for the player by either paying them more or presenting a situation where the player can advance his career.

Each Free Agent is going to sign with a team that wants them and the team that makes sense for them.

Dan Haren was reported to be a West Coast Guy being from California. He signed with an East Coast Team. I have no idea why... I'm guessing that the Washington offer was near the top of the offers financially and pitching well for a contender could lead to a bigger pay day next year. So the deal was right for him and he said goodbye to his beloved West Coast. Maybe he signs an extension with Washington going forward or next year he signs with Dodgers for 6 years and 100 Million. His next move will be a move that Haren feels is best for this career and if that means playing for Kansas City next year. That's what it means and only Dan Haren knows.

Greinke was reported to suffer from a Social Anxiety Disorder. It has been argued that he would never sign with the gigantic Markets because the spotlight would turn him into a Tony Shalloub Monk character or something. What did he do... He Signed for 6 years smack dab in the middle of the Hollywood spotlight. Why did he do it? I don't know... I'm guessing that 6 Years and 147 Million was the best thing he could do for his career at this point.

Does Minnesota have to overpay for Free Agents... Yes they do... Every team has to overpay for signing Free Agents... Can it be argued that the Dodgers had to overpay for Greinke... I'd say that they had to cuz Greinke sure got a boat load of money. Looks like an overpay to me.

I'm guessing that Kevin Corriea was probably not happy with getting knocked out of the rotation in Pittsburgh. He was looking for a team where he could stick in the rotation because that would be best for his career. I think he labeled Minnesota has the best place for that. I think Pelfrey labeled Minnesota has a good match because he would have an opportunity to pitch and revive his career. Harden same thing. These are just guesses but they make sense to me at least.

Marcum... Who knows... I really wanted the guy... Maybe Terry Ryan didn't... Maybe Terry Ryan wanted him but Marcum didn't want Minnesota. Who knows. 4 Million sure doesn't seem like much but I'm pretty sure that there was more that went into Marcum going to the Mets than I'm aware of...

Throwing rocks at the Franchise because a player signed elsewhere will never make much sense to me. The Players have Freewill and all 30 organizations are trying hard to build an organization for success.

It's incredibly easy for us to say we have 30 Million to spend... OK... I want him... him... him and her. Saying... There ya go... I fixed the Twins like you are walking through the supermarket loading canned goods into your cart and the canned goods have no choice but to go along with you.

Even the Astros have a plan... I'm sure the Twins do as well. I don't know what the plan is and I don't think Mackey knows either and I don't think a single poster on Twinsdaily knows either. I'm bummed that we didn't get one of the perceived above average arms. I'm shocked that Marcum went for 4 million... I really am... I'm just saying that I don't have the details and there are always details.

2013 is gonna be what 2013 is gonna be. Is it April yet?

#40 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 12:55 PM

Throwing rocks at the Franchise because a player signed elsewhere will never make much sense to me. The Players have Freewill and all 30 organizations are trying hard to build an organization for success.


For me, it's not about a single free agent. I would have been happy with anything from Greinke to Marcum. There were about ten decent options that ranged from very good (Greinke) to good (Sanchez) to mediocre (Jackson) to question marks with upside (Marcum).

The problem is that Ryan didn't get any of them. With more pitching options on the market than I've seen since the mid-2000s, Ryan failed to get even a mediocre pitcher and instead relied entirely on gambles such as Correia (well below average once you factor in league disparity) and Harden (whose arm could fall off the next time he opens a car door a little too vigorously). No matter how you look at the situation, it's a fail.

Which is really too bad. The Twins had a lot of money to spend and Ryan did an exemplary job with the Span and Revere trades. If he could have just done an "okay" job with the free agent market, I'd be pleased as punch going into this season. Instead, I want to scream.

#41 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 12:59 PM

Last 3 years, the SP ML xFIP is 4.04. Saunders 3-year xFIP is 4.38. Correia's 3-year xFIP is actually a better shade of below-average mediocrity, 4.26. I know you're not saying this, but let's not hold much pretense that Saunders would come in and be the key catalyst in a dramatic Twins turnaround. Although it's a lot like getting a date with Miss Hospitality, it is significantly better having Saunders' innings out there than the alternative. Again, sadly, the biggest benefit to this proposed deal is the one-year nature of it.


In each of the past 5 years Saunders has outperformed his xFIP and FIP by a significant margin, yes xFIP and FIP are useful tools, but they aren't an end all be all, 5 years in a row isn't luck, its a trend. So I am not very worried about the fact that Saunders doesn't strike a lot of guys out or that his HR% isn't the best.

#42 Kwak

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 01:08 PM

In the title of this thread is a claim that the Twins never made an offer to Marcum, and unless people start disputing said claim then we must conclude that "Ryan didn't want Marcum". My take on the discussion was the "why not?" The disclosed terms don't appear to be outside the acceptable parameters to the Twins. Marcum's statistics appear to be better than others who were signed--so why not? It would be way too glib to dismiss Marcum as "damaged goods" when the Twins have made offers to, and even signed, pitchers who fall into the "damaged goods" category. We can also reasonably conclude that the Twins didn't (and are aware of it) solve all of their pitching problems, so there must be another factor(s) that caused the Twins to "pass" on Marcum (yet sign Correria, Pelfrey, and the others).

#43 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 01:10 PM

What is really sad is that when I saw this post, I thought: "Saunders might be a Twin??? That's great!" And 2 months ago, the thought of Saunders being a Twin would have made me sick.... At least the FO is good at lowering our expectations.


And many of our fans are more than happy with it:

Riverbrian[/URL], PseudoSABR and 70charger like this


#44 Willihammer

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:09 PM

[quote name='Riverbrian']I'm guessing that Kevin Corriea was probably not happy with getting knocked out of the rotation in Pittsburgh. He was looking for a team where he could stick in the rotation because that would be best for his career. I think he labeled Minnesota has the best place for that. I think Pelfrey labeled Minnesota has a good match because he would have an opportunity to pitch and revive his career. Harden same thing. These are just guesses but they make sense to me at least. [/QUOTE]

Why would Correia think that? Last year, the Twins DFA'd Jason Marquis after 7 starts to make room for Cole DeVries.

The Twins made an offer to Correia that was competitive. That's why Correia, Pelfrey, and Harden are here, and not Marcum or anyone else.

[QUOTE]Each Free Agent is going to sign with a team that wants them and the team that makes sense for them.[/QUOTE]

Look at the no-trade clauses of the guys traded this winter. Upton had on his Seattle, Toronto, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. Asdrubal had on his, the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Nats, and Mets.

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.

[QUOTE]Even the Astros have a plan... I'm sure the Twins do as well. I don't know what the plan is and I don't think Mackey knows either and I don't think a single poster on Twinsdaily knows either.[/QUOTE]

No, but it doesn't take a genius to recognize patterns. 2013 looks an awful lot like 2012. So either Jr expects better results this time, or the timeline for his plan is so stretched out that he's willing to punt 2 or more seasons before it kicks in. That's not acceptable, not when there's $20m or more still on the table.

#45 Shane Wahl

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:13 PM

Willihammer with the hammer straight on the head of the nail above. Well done.

The only question remaining for me is: how much whiskey do I need to drink to forget this whole situation?

#46 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:30 PM

In each of the past 5 years Saunders has outperformed his xFIP and FIP by a significant margin, yes xFIP and FIP are useful tools, but they aren't an end all be all, 5 years in a row isn't luck, its a trend. So I am not very worried about the fact that Saunders doesn't strike a lot of guys out or that his HR% isn't the best.



I'm not sure the "trend is your friend". If you would have said he'd done what you said he did in 2 out of the last 7 years, I might have been persuaded:


YEAR ERA xFIP

2006 4.71 4.37
2007 4.44 4.39
2008 3.41 4.59
2009 4.60 4.74
2010 4.47 4.50
2011 3.69 4.38
2012 4.07 4.25

His ERA over the last 3 years is 4.07, not really a big premium over his 4.38 xFIP, even with the big year of 2011 averaged in.


Given the current state of the Twins Swiss Cheese defense, a veritable Pitch to Contact Zenmaster like Saunders should be the last pitcher the Twins should covet on a likely overbid necessary to obtain him.

And I know you mentioned his HR% at least as a concern, but don't try to gloss over the fact that RH batters will be licking their chops as they look to become very familiar with the the Left Field stands at TF plus with a chance to increase on their already lofty .804 career OPS against him. (In effect, every RHB averages out close to the equivalent of a Bryce Harper). Besides his high Gopher ball rate against righties, his career FIP against them is 4.95.

I am resigned to attempting to sign him, but not for the numbers bandied about on TD, and not long-term.

#47 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:42 PM

Look at the no-trade clauses of the guys traded this winter. Upton had on his Seattle, Toronto, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. Asdrubal had on his, the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Nats, and Mets.

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.



.


Sometimes, you forget that you know what you know.

Thanks Willihammer for remembering the most cogent point yet in shutting down this ridiculous argument foisted upon us by Ryan and dutifully perpetuated ad nauseum on TD.

#48 edavis0308

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:53 PM

Those guys aren't good examples. You can only use Guys that have Minnesota on their list in this discussion to prove your point.

#49 Boom Boom

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 03:11 PM

So we'll jump at the chance to sign Correia for two years, but with Saunders we're going to draw a line in the sand at one.

#50 snepp

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 03:14 PM

So we'll jump at the chance to sign Correia for two years, but with Saunders we're going to draw a line in the sand at one.


I think they realize that they screwed the pooch with Correia and aren't looking to conduct a repeat performance.

#51 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 03:50 PM

I think they realize that they screwed the pooch with Correia and aren't looking to conduct a repeat performance.


Would that be addition by inaction?

That could be the best move since trading for Meyer.

#52 Kwak

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:22 PM

Hmm, let's see, what's worse signing a marginal FA pitcher from the NL to a 1-year contract or nothing? What would happen to the "saved" $5MM or so?--do we fans recieve any benefit? Like maybe a $1 off a ticket if we sit in the designated b--tching section, or maybe a bag of peanuts to remind us of who we are and where we are sitting?

#53 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:39 PM

I think they realize that they screwed the pooch with Correia and aren't looking to conduct a repeat performance.

I'd feel somewhat better if I really thought they realize they screwed the pooch with Correia. But I don't, so I don't.

#54 Rosterman

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:44 PM

Hmm, let's see, what's worse signing a marginal FA pitcher from the NL to a 1-year contract or nothing? What would happen to the "saved" $5MM or so?--do we fans recieve any benefit? Like maybe a $1 off a ticket if we sit in the designated b--tching section, or maybe a bag of peanuts to remind us of who we are and where we are sitting?

If you renew your season ticket package, you get 10% off your spending on CONcessions or on Twins Stuff. Your Kevin Coreria jrsey will be cheaper than any Twins jersey your purchased on-site last year. Hey, any Liriano jerseys left at Twinsfest, or were they apckaged as twofers with Valencia or Baker jerseys.
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#55 Highabove

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:56 PM

If you renew your season ticket package, you get 10% off your spending on CONcessions or on Twins Stuff. Your Kevin Coreria jrsey will be cheaper than any Twins jersey your purchased on-site last year. Hey, any Liriano jerseys left at Twinsfest, or were they apckaged as twofers with Valencia or Baker jerseys.


The best part of a season ticket package is the telephone conferences with Terry Ryan. Always insightful.

#56 snepp

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:59 PM

I'd feel somewhat better if I really thought they realize they screwed the pooch with Correia. But I don't, so I don't.


Ryan's comments concerning Correia have at least hinted to a bit of buyer's remorse. Whether that perceived remorse means anything moving forward or not, well, I doubt anything actually changes.

#57 The Wise One

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 05:17 PM

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.



No, but it doesn't take a genius to recognize patterns. 2013 looks an awful lot like 2012. So either Jr expects better results this time, or the timeline for his plan is so stretched out that he's willing to punt 2 or more seasons before it kicks in. That's not acceptable, not when there's $20m or more still on the table.


While it is indeed unlikely that all free agents don't want to sign here it is reasonable to think that the high end free agents wouldn't want to play here. Why would you want to go to a losing team if given a choice. If they are any good as a player they have already earned a ton of money. Unless they have the spending habits of Bryant McKinney they don't have to sign for the most money. The marginal talent available to sign leads me to think who cares? They could sign a dozen players the caliber of a Padilla.

#58 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 06:32 PM

While it is indeed unlikely that all free agents don't want to sign here it is reasonable to think that the high end free agents wouldn't want to play here. .


I think the debate on TD hasn't gone on longer than the sum total of about 3 minutes regarding the lack of signing the high end FA by the Twins. Only the rubest of rubes holds out some silly wanderlustic notion about a Greinke, Sanchez or Pujols signing in Minnesota. Do you consider the likes of Jackson, Blanton or Marcum, Myers, McCarthy "high end"? These are tier 2/3 guys, slightly above mediocre to good, and all better than anything the Twins envision in their rotation. What the heck, Francis and Lannan for peanuts would have been a huge depth upgrade at the back end of the rotation.

.You're conflating "marginal" talent with "serviceable" talent.

You talk about "marginal talent available", the Twins pitching staff depth chart has "marginal" written in the margins, and everywhere else on the roster page.

The Twins only have 4 returning pitchers from 2012 (Diamond, Duensing, Burton and Perkins) who were more than a sneezful above replacement level. With the exception of Hendriks, their bottom 7-in-terms-of-WAR pitchers (Blackburn, Swarzak, Deduno, Walters, Burnett and DeVries) could all come down with a case of career-ending River Blindness tomorrow and it would have no significant negative effect on the team's prospects, that's why they are termed (at, or below) "replacement level".

Spot on, on Padilla, you could sign 4 mythical, but desciptively "marginal", but still "serviceable", Padilla-like RP's who had a 0.5 WAR in 2012, for less than $10M total, dump the whole bullpen except Duensing, Fien, Burton and Perkins and your WAR goes up by 2.0 versus the -1.2 for the guys you dumped--------

Remember, the Twins entire bullpen net WAR value for 2012 was only 2.5. The likes of a guy who couldn't even get a contract in the States like Padilla, could be the key to vaulting the 3rd worst bullpen in 2012, as rated by xFIP, into nearly the top quintile bullpen group in all of baseball (behind only 6 teams @ 6.0 WAR , for only $10M invested (net cost, $6-$7M). You don't even necessarily have to find another Burton, just 4 guys who would average out for you the 0.5 WAR score/man like Padilla rated in 2012.

You would get 200 innings (+ additional 2013 innings factored in throughout the pen) with an xFIP of 3.69 from Padilla versus the 278 innings of ~5.00+ xFIP dreck from Gray and the gang in 2012. A huge upgrade for little marginal increased cost of say $6-$7M.

Money well spent? Flippable assets created from a new-found position of strength? I think so.

Edited by jokin, 26 January 2013 - 07:09 PM.


#59 lee_the_twins_fan

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 06:42 PM

The Twins made an offer to Correia that was competitive. That's why Correia, Pelfrey, and Harden are here, and not Marcum or anyone else.


Mike Pelfrey said yesterday at ESPN 1500's booth at Twins Fest that his wife has family and friends here. That was an inducement for him. The money was probably also a factor.

Not every FA wants to avoid Minnesota; just like not all want to avoid Texas or Seattle, or New York.

Then there's guys like Joe Mauer, whom I believe wants to stay in Minnesota for the rest of his career.

Sometimes it's the location. Sometimes it's the people involved. Sometimes it's the organization or the organization's recent record.. Too often it's the money. All of these are considerations for FA – some to one degree or another.

Ultimately, it's up to the FA. Of course, there are some areas which are more populated – like LA, New York, Chicago, etc. There are simply more people, so more chance that someone will want to play there.

Lots of factors. To say no major FA wants to play here is a crude overstatement. But no FA wants to be underpaid.

Edited by lee_the_twins_fan, 26 January 2013 - 06:48 PM.
Something added on the end


#60 TheLeviathan

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 06:59 PM

To say no major FA wants to play here is a crude overstatement. But no FA wants to be underpaid.


Exactly. And so long as our GM prefers to stay in the camp of the second sentence I quoted, we'll have trouble enticing FAs. All those other factors are irrelevant when you aren't willing to be competitive with your offers.