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Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

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#1 East Coast Twin

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 06:02 AM

Interesting article about the Twins signing of Kevin Correia.

"But I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. He's a little bit better than a fifth starter. ..."

Mackey: Twins Taking a Philosophical Gamble

#2 snepp

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:02 AM

This article makes me sad.

#3 Rosterman

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:54 AM

Stats and Live Scouts. Creates confusion, or so it looks. Correria was lucky. He got an offer from the Twins that was more than serviceable and grabbed it without question.
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#4 twinsnorth49

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:32 AM

If he is better than his numbers, then why isn't he...like, better?

Ouch, painful to read.

#5 GCTF

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:56 AM

Counting the days until the "> Kevin Correia " thread. appears.

#6 Top Gun

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:01 AM

Sounds like Ryan is already starting to pass the buck.

#7 gmarais66

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:07 AM

If he is better than his numbers, then why isn't he...like, better?

Ouch, painful to read.


I'm not saying Corriea is going to be great, but this is where all you guys that decide everything about players, by looking at stats, are missing the boat. Scouts and those who have experience playing/coaching baseball, know there can be much more value to a player than what's recorded on the stats sheet. From what I've seen of Corriea, he's a lot like Carl Pavano. Pavano put up similar numbers in his first two years with the Twins. They weren't impressive, but you knew, every time out that the Twins had a shot to win when Pavano was on the mound. Why? He'd get into tough situations (which contributed to his less than eye-popping numbers), but he knew how to get out of those situations. He looked ugly at times, but he could get guys out when he had to. He may give up five or six runs, but he kept his team in the game and gave the Twins a chance to win. It's cliche', but he was the bend, not break type of pitcher. You won't find any of this in the stats sheets, because there's no line for toughness or fortitude or instinct. I'm sure many will laugh at this, but it is true. Baseball isn't played on paper. It is a game of stats, but the stats don't always tell the whole story of what happens on the field.

#8 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:14 AM

He may give up five or six runs, but he kept his team in the game and gave the Twins a chance to win. .


You had me right up until this part.

#9 Nick Nelson

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:14 AM

From what I've seen of Corriea, he's a lot like Carl Pavano. Pavano put up similar numbers in his first two years with the Twins. They weren't impressive, but you knew, every time out that the Twins had a shot to win when Pavano was on the mound.


Pavano's stats in his first two years with the Twins were actually pretty good, far better than anything we've seen from Correia. Not a strong comp.

#10 whydidnt

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:39 AM

Uggh, this is why I have such little confidence in TR ability to build the Twins into a World Series contender. I hope I'm wrong about this, but any serious run at rebuilding has to be based upon a combination of scouting and stats. It seems over and over again when those two are in conflict, Ryan choses the scouts, and over the last few years, that has been disaster, yet he doesn't seem to learn from it.

#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:53 AM

Interesting that Mackey may be on the "Free Slama" bandwagon. And why does "runs every transaction past the Twins internal statistical department" not inspire me about the USE of those statistics?

Also love that they are "airming for 2014 more than 2013". I suppose so but I don't think 2014 looms as a very big target for this group either.

#12 ThePuck

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:11 AM

Interesting that Mackey may be on the "Free Slama" bandwagon. And why does "runs every transaction past the Twins internal statistical department" not inspire me about the USE of those statistics?

Also love that they are "airming for 2014 more than 2013". I suppose so but I don't think 2014 looms as a very big target for this group either.


Ryan says he runs everything past their main stat guy, but he says he believes in some stats and not others. In other words, if the stat guy says we shouldn't a player Ryan wants to get based on X stats, then he doesn't believe in those stats and gets him. If the stats guy says we should get a guy Ryan wants to get based on X stats, then he agrees with them. Basically, I'm gonna run it past the stats guy, but it doesn't matter what he says, I'm gonna do what I'm gonna do.

#13 edavis0308

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:16 AM

Counting the days until the "> Kevin Correia " thread. appears.


Why wait?

Tongue frozen to flag pole > Kevin Correia

#14 josecordoba

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:42 AM

I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

Teams are getting more aware/advanced with stats all the time. Even the Stats that Smart Baseball Fans tend to reference such as xFIP tend to pale in comparsion to the resources for a major league team. Scouting will be able to create more of a Market Inefficiency overtime. I'll hold out to the possibility there are things about Kevin Correria I can't grasp looking at stats. Could there be bad luck where he hits his spots? I can't say for certain.

I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

#15 Willihammer

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:51 AM

I don't understand how scouting could even enter the equation. We're talking about a 10 year pro.

The only possible information edge that the Twins might have here is the reference to the ballpark. Maybe someone saw a spray chart and thinks Target Field will contain some of the HRs that otherwise would be gone at AT&T, PNC, and Petco. If that's the case, color me dubious.

#16 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:51 AM

WTF, did Ryan really try to imply Correia's poor 2012 production was due to being moved to the bullpen? Where he pitched all of 10 innings?

Nothing more to say about this situation that hasn't already been said but this boils my blood. This is the closest a member of the media has come to pointing out that Ryan is making poor decisions. Hopefully more members of the media now see they can constructively criticize the Twins and start the process of holding Ryan accountable for this BS.

#17 Boom Boom

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:59 AM

The "he's a little bit better than a fifth starter" line is so sad it's almost funny.

Especially considering Correia wasn't even in the Pirates' top 5.

#18 josecordoba

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 11:00 AM

I don't understand how scouting could even enter the equation. We're talking about a 10 year pro.

The only possible information edge that the Twins might have here is the reference to the ballpark. Maybe someone saw a spray chart and thinks Target Field will contain some of the HRs that otherwise would be gone at AT&T, PNC, and Petco. If that's the case, color me dubious.


Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.

#19 UCLA_YANKEE_COLA

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 11:26 AM

Do pitchers get markedly better 10 years into their career? Or when they move to a tougher league? Maybe it happens (I can't think of anyone off hand) but if it does it's not something you can count on. What could the Twins have possibly based this move on other than what he's done on the field?

He's not going to reinvent himself Whether we like it or not he's going to be as bad, or worse, in 2013 as he has been over the last 10 years.

#20 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 11:28 AM

Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.


I can't believe that. Ryan granted an interview to Mackey, and judging by the tone of the article the questions were not particularly pleasent. Ryan specifically said "I don't think we overpaid" which means that Mackey actually asked Ryan something along the lines of "Do you think you overpaid for Correia?" Ryan was very defensive and went on to say things like "We weren't the only team chasing him," and "He's a little better than a fifth starter." He also took several opportunities to lay the situation at the scouts/evaluators feet by implying that he got the information from those people as opposed to making the decision based on his personal assesment. With Ryan being defensive with many of his answers and perhaps subconciously trying to put this signing on the evaluators below him, it would tell me that Ryan certainly would have disclosed any "secret" information the Twins knew about Correia that would swing popular opinion in his favor. There would be no harm in proclaiming Correia's hidden attributes at this point, they already signed him.