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ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

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#21 lightfoot789

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 06:35 PM

2016 -
1B - Parmelee (25 HRs)
2B - Rosario (Doubles machine)
SS - Costly Free Agent Gem
3B - Sano (30+ HRs)
LF - Arcia (one of MLB Elite Hitters by 2016)
CF - Hicks (Jack of all trades / Great OBP)
RF - Roberts (.400 OBP) and / or Walker (20+ HRs)
DH - Mauer
C - Hermann or guy from Kepler trade
Buxton to CF in 2017 (@ 22 yrs old) & Hicks to RF
Kepler traded for MLB ready SP Pitcher or Catcher in 2016 as he is by now a Top 50 MLB Prospect
Pitchers from 2012 draft and higher pitching prospects ready by 2016 (Atlanta Braves Pitching Prospect Ready = always ready when called on)

#22 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 07:07 PM

What if Sano can't play 3B? and its hard to imagine the organization getting a "Free Agent Gem" at shortstop. But lets hope that all shakes out

#23 PseudoSABR

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:12 PM

People aren't factoring the payroll flexibility. The team will not be just full of prospects (and Mauer) in 2015 and 2016, the Twins will supplement their young core with plenty of veterans, you betcha.

#24 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:19 PM

People aren't factoring the payroll flexibility. The team will not be just full of prospects (and Mauer) in 2015 and 2016, the Twins will supplement their young core with plenty of veterans, you betcha.


Where's that bridge you're selling?

#25 PseudoSABR

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:31 PM

Where's that bridge you're selling?

You seriously think the Twins will have a 60 million payroll in 2015? Because it will be less than that if they don't sign some significant free agents by then. I'm all about having some reasonable cynicism, but this is baseless negativity.

The Twins did have a 100 million payroll. And even after 2011's losing season, still had a 90 million 2012 team. If the Twins sign Saunders (or others) the payroll will approach 90 million this year. I'm not suggesting that the Twins will have a payroll of 100 million in 2015, but it's pretty reasonable to expect something more than a roster full of serfs and arb players.

#26 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:33 PM

You seriously think the Twins will have a 60 million payroll in 2015? Because it will be less than that if they don't sign some significant free agents by then. I'm all about having some reasonable cynicism, but this is baseless negativity.

The Twins did have a 100 million payroll. And even after 2011's losing season, still had a 90 million 2012 team. If the Twins sign Saunders (or others) the payroll will approach 90 million this year. I'm not suggesting that the Twins will have a payroll of 100 million in 2015, but it's pretty reasonable to expect something more than a roster full of serfs and arb players.


It's not baseless negativity...he's cut payroll by 32M in two offseasons and is preparing to have a team in the near future that consists of starting players who are prospects now...and Mauer

You're saying the Twins will do what they have never done before, go hit the FA market bigtime...

What are YOU basing your optimism on in regards to that? I have a pattern of action, what do you have? Baseless optimism..

Edit...sarcasm for affect, not to be mean

Edited by ThePuck, 21 January 2013 - 08:52 PM.


#27 Highabove

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:58 PM

We are back to being a small Market Team. 30 Million came off the payroll, and Ryan is making the same type of moves that he did with his 30+ million payroll's.

#28 Physics Guy

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:08 PM

Does that article say (I'm not an insider) what "contention" means?

Contending in the AL central is different from contending for a World Series. I think the Twins are going to be super interesting to watch in 2015 and 2016 what with all the young, developing talent. If they can put it together, the team could be scary good with very little money. A lot of ifs, of course.


Here is what the article stated:

"This doesn't mean this is the only year that the team can contend, but rather which year should provide it the best chance for a World Series title."

Here's what I think is reasonable:
2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year
2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season
2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?
2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes

Obviously there will be holes to deal with (SS,3B or C), but Ryan has payroll flexibility. I doubt he uses a significant amount of it in FA, but maybe he would trade for a solution to those holes (taking on some payroll).

2017 Lineup
C - Mauer?, Herrmann?
1B - Parmelle, Mauer, Sano?
2B - Dozier, Rosario
SS - Santana, Polanco
3B - Plouffe, Sano?
LF - Arcia, Roberts
CF - Hicks, Buxton
RF - Benson, Kepler

SP - Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, May, Wimmers, Berrios

#29 Physics Guy

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:14 PM

My point in listing at least two guys at each position in my previous post is that at least they have some options and aren't pinning their hopes on one guy. Certainly some of these guys will not make it, but most are pretty highly thought of prospects. C and 3B are my biggest concerns. Mauer maybe won't catch at all by then and it doesn't seem as though we have an obvious replacement. Sano is no guarantee at 3B (although there is a decent chance) and Plouffe needs to prove he can do it for a full season.

#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:25 PM

Perhaps I'm being optimistic but for me:
2014= 2000 Minnesota Twins
2015= 2001
2016= 2002


I agree with this... 2014 a lot of the guys start showing up and take some lumps. Improvement in 2015 (And a few more show up and take lumps) and maybe compete into Julyish... then compete for division title in 2016 as a few guys are reaching arbitration and others now have some experiences under their belt and they get to the point where 1-2 rookies come up and fit in, rather than have huge expectations. I'm good with that...

#31 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:31 PM

Its safe to say we are going to be a whole lot better by 2015, or someone is getting fired

#32 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:40 PM

So ALL of our prospects are gonna come up and be what we hope they'll be RIGHT AWAY...making us contenders in 2016, while the other teams are doing, what?

#33 Highabove

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:53 PM

So all the added revenue from Target Field was never really needed.

Edited by Highabove, 21 January 2013 - 10:00 PM.


#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 10:10 PM

You seriously think the Twins will have a 60 million payroll in 2015?.


Well, I seriously thought we'd have a 90M payroll next year...how'd that turn out? At this point negativity was what was served to us this offseason, not much baseless about it.

#35 drjim

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 10:41 PM

So all the added revenue from Target Field was never really needed.


It will be. Payrolls go down during rebuilds but will go up if some of the prospects reach their potential and need to get paid after they complete their arb years. Twins might not spend a whole lot in free agency but they have proven that they are willing to sign their own players as they approach free agency and this will be especially true with Target Field. One of the reasons the payroll is sluggish right now is that they haven't developed a good player that they needed to extend in several years. Hopefully with this wave coming that will change.
Papers...business papers.

#36 Physics Guy

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 10:44 PM

So ALL of our prospects are gonna come up and be what we hope they'll be RIGHT AWAY...making us contenders in 2016, while the other teams are doing, what?


If ALL OF OUR PROSPECTS come up we will be trading some of them because we won't have enough spots for them. As for RIGHT AWAY, by 2016:

Parmelee 28 yrs old, 3+ yrs in MLB
Dozier 29, 3+
Plouffe 30, 4+
Arcia 25, 2/2+
Hicks 26, 2+/3
Benson, 2?

Add Mauer and anybody else they add to the team to fill holes and it's not exactly like we're playing a bunch of rookies. I'm obviously more optimistic than you, but I'd say Parmelee and Plouffe have a decent chance to be at least 1-2 WAR players. I did some minor league comparisons and Arcia compares favorably with Cuddyer and Kubel with Arcia slightly more advanced. Cuddy and Kubel both put up 20+HR and 100 RBI at 27. Hicks' minors numbers compare favorably with Hunter who by age 25 hit 27/92 and was an All-Star at 26. Hicks probably doesn't hit for quite as much power but has better plate discipline. Both cases are probably near their ceilings, but it's also reasonable to assume they are at least league average by 2016. There is a decent chance neither Dozier nor Benson work out, but they have other guys to fill in for them prior to 2016.

#37 Highabove

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 10:53 PM

It will be. Payrolls go down during rebuilds but will go up if some of the prospects reach their potential and need to get paid after they complete their arb years. Twins might not spend a whole lot in free agency but they have proven that they are willing to sign their own players as they approach free agency and this will be especially true with Target Field. One of the reasons the payroll is sluggish right now is that they haven't developed a good player that they needed to extend in several years. Hopefully with this wave coming that will change.


If Revenue is down, the payroll will not go up. The Pohlad's do not carryover unused cash.

#38 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 10:53 PM

I'm high on our prospects...Arcia, Hicks, Sano, Rosario...all of four of them...and Hicks is likely the only one who will sniff time this year...so, going into 2016, all but Hicks will have 2 or less years in the Majors. Then there's May and Meyer...2 or less years in the majors going into 2016 as well...Parmellee and Mauer will likely be the old timer position players in 2016.

The '87 team...took them 5 years. So, yeah, 2 years in basically right away...and we'd need to have almost all of them perform up to our high expectations by then to be maybe be contenders.

If you wanna believe 2016 is a realistic time to be division contenders go for it...but it's not. Not if we're counting on mostly guys still in the minors right now.

Edited by ThePuck, 21 January 2013 - 10:56 PM.


#39 TheLeviathan

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 11:02 PM

It will be. Payrolls go down during rebuilds but will go up if some of the prospects reach their potential and need to get paid after they complete their arb years. .


Sure, but we're talking about 2016....we won't be at that point.

#40 lightfoot789

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 11:30 PM

In reference to "what if" Sano doesn't pan out?

What if all the pitchers develop Tommy John injury? That should be another thread.

Arcia - Sano - Rosario - Hicks - Meyer - Mays - Berrios - All have high chance of being quality starters at MLB level. Some have star potential. If 3 of 7 become a future All Star - Lookout

Edited by lightfoot789, 21 January 2013 - 11:42 PM.