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ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:12 PM

This is "Insider" only, so please be respectful about lifting content, but ESPN writer Jason Martinez thinks the Twins optimal year of contention is 2016. What do you think. Will we need to wait four more seasons?

#2 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:16 PM

Why rush our prospects? Let's shoot for 2020.

But seriously, I will be pretty unhappy with this organization if it takes them 4 years to get back into "contention" in the AL Central.

#3 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:17 PM

i could not access the insider article. but 2016 is when Kepler, Buxton, and Berrios should be ready. Along with a whole slew of older prospects.

#4 drjim

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:19 PM

I still think this is final year of rebuild - 2014 is transition year - 2015 is first year of real contention. This is assuming things go pretty well and a high percentage of prospects perform close to expected. If not it could be much longer.

#5 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:29 PM

I still think this is final year of rebuild - 2014 is transition year - 2015 is first year of real contention. This is assuming things go pretty well and a high percentage of prospects perform close to expected. If not it could be much longer.


true dat

#6 Nick Nelson

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:44 PM

This is sort of what I was trying to hint at in my post today. It's pretty optimistic to believe the Twins are going to build a contender around their current wave of prospects as soon as 2014 or even 2015. As drjim notes, it would require the vast majority of the guys they're counting on to stay healthy and on track (or in many cases ahead of expected schedule), which usually just isn't how it goes.

At this point in 2015, Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, May, Sano and Hendriks will all be 25 or younger – not even into their "prime" years yet.

#7 johnnydakota

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:44 PM

This is "Insider" only, so please be respectful about lifting content, but ESPN writer Jason Martinez thinks the Twins optimal year of contention is 2016. What do you think. Will we need to wait four more seasons?


Im interested in your opinion John, when do you see the Twins contending?

#8 silverslugger

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 03:55 PM

This is also the point I was trying to get at in my post on the thread to Nick's article today. I sometimes wonder if our board posters, whom I think are more knowledgeable than the average fan, forget that it's one thing to arrive, another thing to thrive. If we're talking about a core of Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, May, Sano and Hendriks then we're talking 2016. If you want to talk Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, etc. Well, that's the second wave to reinforce the first and the two groups won't be formidable together until 2018/2019.

#9 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:15 PM

2015/2016 is when most of our best prospects should be up...not sure that automatically makes them contenders. 2016 is a bit unrealistic.

#10 SweetOne69

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:20 PM

I think that they will be competitive in 2014 and 2015 as the prospects get their feet wet, but 2016 would be the earliest that the could be truly considered contenders.

#11 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:46 PM

2015/2016 is when most of our best prospects should be up...not sure that automatically makes them contenders. 2016 is a bit unrealistic.


Our best guys will still be in their early 20's...except for Mauer, of course. Doesn't sound like a Division Champion to me. But a MUCH more interesting product to watch and buy tickets to witness high-end talent

#12 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:49 PM

Our best guys will still be in their early 20's...except for Mauer, of course. Doesn't sound like a Division Champion to me. But a MUCH more interesting product to watch and buy tickets to witness high-end talent


They'll be fun to watch in 2015/2016...

#13 iastfan112

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:50 PM

Perhaps I'm being optimistic but for me:
2014= 2000 Minnesota Twins
2015= 2001
2016= 2002

#14 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:51 PM

Perhaps I'm being optimistic but for me:
2014= 2000 Minnesota Twins
2015= 2001
2016= 2002


bloody hope so

#15 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:52 PM

They'll be fun to watch in 2015/2016...


Who you got in across the 2016 infield?

#16 Boom Boom

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:22 PM

This is all assuming that the Twins, in the next 4 years, will make no trades for major league players and won't sign any helpful free agents. Waiting patiently for the roster to be completely turned over to in-house options that may or may not pan out.

The team's been bad the last two years, but this is the AL Central and there's even another wild card now. Isn't it possible that with a couple key free agent additions, even the 2013 Twins could compete? What if Arcia, Hicks, Hendriks, or Gibson (pick one) takes a big step forward in the next year or two?

#17 Thrylos

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:28 PM

Perhaps I'm being optimistic but for me:
2014= 2000 Minnesota Twins
2015= 2001
2016= 2002


Hopefully it is more like the late 80s early 90s :)
They actually won in the post-season then.
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twitter: @thrylos98

#18 shs_59

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:42 PM

I think 2015 is a realistic goal.....other than that Yes probably 2016.

In 2015 i could strongly see a roster of something like (just some random sims and guesswork)

Brian Roberts -2B
Aaron Hicks - CF
Joe Mauer -- C
Justin Morneau - 1B/DH
Oswaldo Arcia - LF
Chris Parmelee - DH/RF
Trevor Plouffe - 3B
Eddie Rosaio - 2B/ RF
Brian Dozier - SS
-----
Chris Herrmann
Danny Santana
Nathan Roberts
Eduardo Escobar

With Miguel Sano in AAA (1B) and probably Kepler, Harrison and others in AA. I see Sano taking over 1B at someway mid-point of 2015 and pushing Morneau down to 5th or 6th in the lineup and at DH.


Dyan Bundy (i have twins trading Willingham, Buxton, Hendriks, Wimmers, Beresford and possibly Parmelee to O's at deadline or 2013 off-season for Bundy and Roberts.)
Kyle Gibson
Scott Diamond
Alex Meyer
BJ Hermsen / Vance Worley

Trevor May ( possible closer)
Glen Perkins
Jared Burton
Brian Duensing
Matt Hauser
Zach Jones
Caleb Theilbar / Tyler Robertson.
Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Nick Gordon (SS-RK) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.

#19 darin617

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 06:21 PM

I think 2015 is a realistic goal.....other than that Yes probably 2016.

In 2015 i could strongly see a roster of something like (just some random sims and guesswork)

Brian Roberts -2B
Aaron Hicks - CF
Joe Mauer -- C
Justin Morneau - 1B/DH
Oswaldo Arcia - LF
Chris Parmelee - DH/RF
Trevor Plouffe - 3B
Eddie Rosaio - 2B/ RF
Brian Dozier - SS
-----
Chris Herrmann
Danny Santana
Nathan Roberts
Eduardo Escobar

With Miguel Sano in AAA (1B) and probably Kepler, Harrison and others in AA. I see Sano taking over 1B at someway mid-point of 2015 and pushing Morneau down to 5th or 6th in the lineup and at DH.


Dyan Bundy (i have twins trading Willingham, Buxton, Hendriks, Wimmers, Beresford and possibly Parmelee to O's at deadline or 2013 off-season for Bundy and Roberts.)
Kyle Gibson
Scott Diamond
Alex Meyer
BJ Hermsen / Vance Worley

Trevor May ( possible closer)
Glen Perkins
Jared Burton
Brian Duensing
Matt Hauser
Zach Jones
Caleb Theilbar / Tyler Robertson.


Sorry to break it to you, there is no chance Dylan Bundy would get traded for a bunch of so so players and Buxton.
If the Twins offered Gibson, Buxton,Meyer and Parmalee they would still get turned down.Dylan Bundy is an Ace and you never give up an ace for the package you had.

#20 70charger

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 06:31 PM

Does that article say (I'm not an insider) what "contention" means?

Contending in the AL central is different from contending for a World Series. I think the Twins are going to be super interesting to watch in 2015 and 2016 what with all the young, developing talent. If they can put it together, the team could be scary good with very little money. A lot of ifs, of course.

#21 lightfoot789

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 06:35 PM

2016 -
1B - Parmelee (25 HRs)
2B - Rosario (Doubles machine)
SS - Costly Free Agent Gem
3B - Sano (30+ HRs)
LF - Arcia (one of MLB Elite Hitters by 2016)
CF - Hicks (Jack of all trades / Great OBP)
RF - Roberts (.400 OBP) and / or Walker (20+ HRs)
DH - Mauer
C - Hermann or guy from Kepler trade
Buxton to CF in 2017 (@ 22 yrs old) & Hicks to RF
Kepler traded for MLB ready SP Pitcher or Catcher in 2016 as he is by now a Top 50 MLB Prospect
Pitchers from 2012 draft and higher pitching prospects ready by 2016 (Atlanta Braves Pitching Prospect Ready = always ready when called on)

#22 mnfanforlife

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 07:07 PM

What if Sano can't play 3B? and its hard to imagine the organization getting a "Free Agent Gem" at shortstop. But lets hope that all shakes out

#23 PseudoSABR

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:12 PM

People aren't factoring the payroll flexibility. The team will not be just full of prospects (and Mauer) in 2015 and 2016, the Twins will supplement their young core with plenty of veterans, you betcha.

#24 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:19 PM

People aren't factoring the payroll flexibility. The team will not be just full of prospects (and Mauer) in 2015 and 2016, the Twins will supplement their young core with plenty of veterans, you betcha.


Where's that bridge you're selling?

#25 PseudoSABR

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:31 PM

Where's that bridge you're selling?

You seriously think the Twins will have a 60 million payroll in 2015? Because it will be less than that if they don't sign some significant free agents by then. I'm all about having some reasonable cynicism, but this is baseless negativity.

The Twins did have a 100 million payroll. And even after 2011's losing season, still had a 90 million 2012 team. If the Twins sign Saunders (or others) the payroll will approach 90 million this year. I'm not suggesting that the Twins will have a payroll of 100 million in 2015, but it's pretty reasonable to expect something more than a roster full of serfs and arb players.

#26 ThePuck

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:33 PM

You seriously think the Twins will have a 60 million payroll in 2015? Because it will be less than that if they don't sign some significant free agents by then. I'm all about having some reasonable cynicism, but this is baseless negativity.

The Twins did have a 100 million payroll. And even after 2011's losing season, still had a 90 million 2012 team. If the Twins sign Saunders (or others) the payroll will approach 90 million this year. I'm not suggesting that the Twins will have a payroll of 100 million in 2015, but it's pretty reasonable to expect something more than a roster full of serfs and arb players.


It's not baseless negativity...he's cut payroll by 32M in two offseasons and is preparing to have a team in the near future that consists of starting players who are prospects now...and Mauer

You're saying the Twins will do what they have never done before, go hit the FA market bigtime...

What are YOU basing your optimism on in regards to that? I have a pattern of action, what do you have? Baseless optimism..

Edit...sarcasm for affect, not to be mean

Edited by ThePuck, 21 January 2013 - 08:52 PM.


#27 Highabove

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:58 PM

We are back to being a small Market Team. 30 Million came off the payroll, and Ryan is making the same type of moves that he did with his 30+ million payroll's.

#28 Physics Guy

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:08 PM

Does that article say (I'm not an insider) what "contention" means?

Contending in the AL central is different from contending for a World Series. I think the Twins are going to be super interesting to watch in 2015 and 2016 what with all the young, developing talent. If they can put it together, the team could be scary good with very little money. A lot of ifs, of course.


Here is what the article stated:

"This doesn't mean this is the only year that the team can contend, but rather which year should provide it the best chance for a World Series title."

Here's what I think is reasonable:
2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year
2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season
2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?
2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes

Obviously there will be holes to deal with (SS,3B or C), but Ryan has payroll flexibility. I doubt he uses a significant amount of it in FA, but maybe he would trade for a solution to those holes (taking on some payroll).

2017 Lineup
C - Mauer?, Herrmann?
1B - Parmelle, Mauer, Sano?
2B - Dozier, Rosario
SS - Santana, Polanco
3B - Plouffe, Sano?
LF - Arcia, Roberts
CF - Hicks, Buxton
RF - Benson, Kepler

SP - Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, May, Wimmers, Berrios

#29 Physics Guy

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:14 PM

My point in listing at least two guys at each position in my previous post is that at least they have some options and aren't pinning their hopes on one guy. Certainly some of these guys will not make it, but most are pretty highly thought of prospects. C and 3B are my biggest concerns. Mauer maybe won't catch at all by then and it doesn't seem as though we have an obvious replacement. Sano is no guarantee at 3B (although there is a decent chance) and Plouffe needs to prove he can do it for a full season.

#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:25 PM

Perhaps I'm being optimistic but for me:
2014= 2000 Minnesota Twins
2015= 2001
2016= 2002


I agree with this... 2014 a lot of the guys start showing up and take some lumps. Improvement in 2015 (And a few more show up and take lumps) and maybe compete into Julyish... then compete for division title in 2016 as a few guys are reaching arbitration and others now have some experiences under their belt and they get to the point where 1-2 rookies come up and fit in, rather than have huge expectations. I'm good with that...