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Article: Three-Weeks-To-Opening-Day Roster Projections

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 12:37 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ter-Projections

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 01:41 AM

What makes Anthony Swarzak a given? Clearly he shouldn't be a given. That he may be is another story, I suppose, but he has never been good enough to warrant a guaranteed spot. Last year's performance was substantially exaggerated. That K rate of 4.9 is not good. His number at Rochester were not stupendous either. Why Swarzak and Burnett and not Manship and Waldrop, indeed.

#3 Thrylos

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 06:21 AM

What makes Anthony Swarzak a given? .


He is out of options

Seth, I pretty much agree, but there is a lot of ST ahead. As far as the 3rd Catcher goes, I think (if they take one, since Doumit has been playing alright behind the plate) that Rivera has probably had the best spring so far, since Towles cooled off. These 3 will fight it and each of them have their advantages (I mean between Towles and Rivera, because Butera's only advantage is that he si on the 40-man roster.) but Rivera can throw runners out and cought the 2 great Liriano outings... Also last season Liriano was better with Rivera catching (could be that communication thing) so I'd like to see him make it up north as Liriano's personal catcher, same way that Butera was Pavano's. If he will give them legitimate better chances to win 35 games, he should be it...
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#4 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 07:23 AM

I think you need to consider options here.. correct me if I'm wrong, but arent' swarzak and manship out of options?

#5 Thrylos

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 07:28 AM

I think you need to consider options here.. correct me if I'm wrong, but arent' swarzak and manship out of options?


Manship has another option year left
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#6 roger

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:07 AM

Swarzak is out of options. Manship and Burnett each have one remaining. I agree with Seth, send Burnett to Rochester so he can get half to most of a year experience at that level. I have liked Maloney and Burton since the were signed and remain hopeful they will be fine in the bullpen. Last spot for me comes down to Waldrop or Manship and looks like Waldrop has the edge right now.

#7 Jim H

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:30 AM

I doubt if the first 2 weeks of ST "results" mean that much. To this point, bullpens, live batting practice, and drills probably mean as much as game results. I would guess that 8 or more of the pitchers in camp have a shot at the last three bullpen positions. Swarzak is probably pretty safe, unless he falls off a cliff performance-wise. Spring games performance should start to count for more from now on. Since the bullpen candidates (whoever they really are) may get 6 or more appearances from on, this is about the time to really pay attention. I expect the non-candidates to be cut or sent to minor league camp within a week. I expect Butera to win the 3rd catcher spot, if there is a 3rd catcher. I think if there is a competitor with Nishioka for the backup middle infielder, (Chang, Florimon, or Holiman) we should be able to tell by the end of next week. Plouffe and Hughes seem to be the leaders for backup spots but they probably better start swinging better bats pretty soon. I also think that if Baker can't begin the year in the starting rotation, Swarzak could get stretched out. I like Henriks but he might benefit from AAA starts.

#8 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:46 AM

Seth,

I completely agree with you assessment. I know it's a SHOCKER. What about Carlos Gutierrez?? He has more upside than probably all three guys (Burton, Maloney, and Waldrop). How long do the Twins keep him at Rochester? What happens if they do sign Michael Wuertz to a minor league deal? Does he have any shot at making the team this late in camp? I know it's a slim chance but they could sign him.

Edited by Fanatic Jack, 16 March 2012 - 08:48 AM.


#9 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:56 AM

Seth,

I completely agree with you assessment. I know it's a SHOCKER. What about Carlos Gutierrez?? He has more upside than probably all three guys (Burton, Maloney, and Waldrop). How long do the Twins keep him at Rochester? What happens if they do sign Michael Wuertz to a minor league deal? Does he have any shot at making the team this late in camp? I know it's a slim chance but they could sign him.


I think Gutierrez is technically still in the competition, but outside chance at this point, in part because he too has three option years remaining. How long do they keep him at Rochester? Until he's ready and there is a need. No way Wuertz makes the big league opening day roster coming in at this point. If they did sign him, I'd guess he would stay in Ft. Myers for a month and work out and build up arm strength. Then they would get him into a couple of games with the Miracle. Then they would send him to Rochester and he can compete with the Manship's and Gutierrez's and the rest of the bullpen arms that wind up there. I think there is a decent chance that he signs with the Twins. I mean, as good of a chance as anyone else.

#10 lee_the_twins_fan

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 09:31 AM

I agree with most of your assessment. Does Michael Hollimon have a shot as a utility infielder? He's been hitting hard. How is his fielding? Could he make the team instead of Nishioka? The OF and starting pitchers are set. I'm hoping the Twins only carry two catchers, but that sounds more and more unlikely. Towles would be my choice as well, if they carry three. Not sure about Swarzak after yesterday. I was also a big Doyle fan, until yesterday. I hope he can make a comeback. I hope you're right about Burton and Waldrop. Good post.

#11 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 09:55 AM

I am not a fan of keeping inferior pitchers up with the Twins just because they are out of options. Keeping an average or below average pitcher on the roster for fear of losing said average or below average pitcher over the waiver wire? This kind of roster mentality is how the Twins function, I understand, but it is poor functioning.

#12 Nicholas Mueller

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 10:43 AM

Even though I really like Jared Burton, I might consider Jeff Manship instead, because he is younger and he was a draft pick. Obviously both of them have really impressed this spring. Anyone know if Manship still has options?

#13 jimbo92107

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 10:45 AM

New Rule: Every photo should have a caption, and the caption should start with the guy's name. Especially now with all the turnover, a lot of us don't know who the heck these people are!

#14 jwestbrock

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 10:51 AM

I am not a fan of keeping inferior pitchers up with the Twins just because they are out of options. Keeping an average or below average pitcher on the roster for fear of losing said average or below average pitcher over the waiver wire? This kind of roster mentality is how the Twins function, I understand, but it is poor functioning.


But when those average or below average pitchers are not considerably worse than the players with options available, you give them first dibs because it is a decent idea, especially as pitchers are concerned, to keep as many as possible around.

Now if we're talking about keeping an Anthony Swarzak-level pitcher instead of a Jonny Venters-level, then I agree completely, but we're picking between pitchers ranging from average to below average.

#15 Shane Wahl

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 12:26 PM

But when those average or below average pitchers are not considerably worse than the players with options available, you give them first dibs because it is a decent idea, especially as pitchers are concerned, to keep as many as possible around.

Now if we're talking about keeping an Anthony Swarzak-level pitcher instead of a Jonny Venters-level, then I agree completely, but we're picking between pitchers ranging from average to below average.


There are dozens of Anthony Swarzak-level pitchers to pick up at any given time, so the worry about not having enough pitchers around is not warranted (just look at how many pitchers the Twins signed this offseason). Maybe he has the advantage of being a known commodity. The Twins know that he really isn't very good, but is adequate in eating innings that don't matter? Even if Manship and Waldrop are only marginally better, marginally better is still better. One might think that holding Manship and Waldrop back in Rochester wouldn't do them any good at this point, and, in fact, it might cause more harm than anything else. I generally am in favor of recycling replacement level players for younger ones, who might have upside still. That idea doesn't apply in this case where all three are roughly the same age, but sometimes you can add my subtracting (if anyone actually would claim Swarzak off waivers, which is debatable). If Manship and Waldrop are kept in Rochester they may get more high-leverage innings that Oliveros, Gutierrez, Burnett, Guerra and other actual prospects would have gotten otherwise. All because of the almighty out-of-options with regard to easily replaceable players. Where's Gleeman when I need him!?

#16 Jim H

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 12:39 PM

I think it is more about consistency than anything else. Guiterrez is maybe the most dominating relief pitcher in camp. Yet, he has never been consistent in the minors and he isn't likely to be in the majors. When he starts showing that consistency, he will be in the majors. I think the same is true about Oliveras, Burnett, and maybe Robertson. I think the guys who start the year with the Twins may not have dominating stuff, but are more likely to bring "get the hitter out" stuff more often than the younger guys.

#17 roger

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 02:04 PM

Lets give Swarzak a pass on yesterday's performance. I wasn't listening, but from what I understand he came into a bad situation in the first inning without adequate time to warm up. He pitched a good second inning, then a decent third except for the one pitch.

#18 bkucko

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 02:54 PM

Do the Twins keep Doyle if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster or do we do a similar trade like last year with Scott Diamond? I would absolutely hate a similar move. Either Doyle makes it on the 25 man, or gets offered back to Chicago. No use wasting a minor leaguer/prospect on Doyle. Didn't work at all with Diamond.

#19 Thrylos

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 02:55 PM

Looks like Baker will start the season in the DL, so the opening day roster needs some reworking :) I suspect that Hendriks will be the 5th starter
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#20 Seth Stohs

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 02:59 PM

Shane, I guess I just don't see who is better than swarzak for certain. He's still a fairly young pitcher compared to other options. He certainly had some moments last year. He's certainly got the attitude to pitch out of the bullpen.