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Could Dobnak be an All Star?

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#21 Doctor Gast

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 08:22 AM

I was disappointed in yesterday game that Simmons wasn't starting behind our gballer Dobnak. I thought it would give us plenty of opportunities to see Simmons in action. Instead I was pleasantly surprised to see our gballer pitch 3 shutout, 6 SO innings.

#22 beckmt

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 08:49 AM

Too many decent starters is a nice problem to have.We still have 3 of these starters FA after this year, so Dobnak has a role.We shall see how he does.


#23 Dman

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 11:14 AM

 

I was disappointed in yesterday game that Simmons wasn't starting behind our gballer Dobnak. I thought it would give us plenty of opportunities to see Simmons in action. Instead I was pleasantly surprised to see our gballer pitch 3 shutout, 6 SO innings.

 

You know I probably don't give Dobnak the respect he deserves.He really pitched well on Saturday.My knock on him is that when he gets ahead in the count he can't put hitters away and sometimes ends up in these long battles that move his pitch count up and tires him out.If he can find an out pitch I think he is as good as any of the other pitchers the Twins have.Batters really have a tough time getting good contact on his stuff but sometimes they foul balls away like crazy.A put away pitch could make him elite IMO.I think they said he was working on a new grip and he K'd 6 of 9 batters so that is encouraging. We'll see how he does as we get closer to the regular season but if Saturday is the new norm the Twins are going to have a hard time keeping him out of the rotation.  

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#24 jimbo92107

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 03:15 PM

Dobnak will be a mid-rotation horse for the next decade. He will eat up innings with ground balls, keep his team in games consistently, but he may never rise to the level of All Star. His value to the team will be more than they pay him.

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#25 AceWrigley

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Posted 14 March 2021 - 04:22 PM

A right -handed Jim Kaat?

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#26 Aichiman

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 01:15 AM

I think he can do it!

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#27 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 07:38 AM

He's a nice story and his family had commented in a few places on social media how proud they are of him but, no, he's not going to be an all-star.


#28 ashbury

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 07:46 AM

Randy Dobnak, Übermensch

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#29 Dantes929

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 07:58 AM

I think it should be noted that Dobnak in his horrible year was 6-4 with a 4.05 ERA.Getting shelled in 3 of his last 4 games might have been the league "figuring him out".On the other hand , like Duffey and Scott Diamond, the figuring out part might have been, for whatever reasons, the ball wasn't breakingas much or wasn't located like it was when they were having success.I think Dobnak has the stuff to be good.Probably not all star good..  

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#30 jimbo92107

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Posted 15 March 2021 - 10:34 AM

 

I know that Dobnak doesn't have flashy stuff but what he does well is force grounders. When Donaldson is on the field his grounders normally don't go through. When he isn't they do, therefore Dobnak has to try to be cute & he's not good at that. So both Donaldson and Simmons are on the field, the ball isn't going to get through. So he doesn't have to try to be cute.

This could be the ultimate observation on Dobnak. The way he induces ground balls requires good infield play. If he gets great infield play, he could shock the world with an ERA in the mid 2's, while regularly lasting into the seventh inning. With Donaldson, Simmons and Polanco, potentially you've got an infield that verges on great. And so we get

 

D(ERA) = 1/FP (3B + SS + 2B) where FP is Fielding Percentage. Kinda sorta.

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#31 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2021 - 08:30 AM

Apparently on the post-game Zoom Dobnak mentioned that the coaching staff approached him a week ago with data how to improve his slider, giving it more break.

 

It's Spring Training and "best shape my life", "learned a new pitch", yada yada yada... but it's something worth noting and keeping an eye on in the next two weeks.

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#32 twins1095

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 01:34 PM

I want to go on record because it's pretty clear. Dobnak is going to have a really strong season. The Twins infield defense and the changes in the ball will allow him to thrive. 

 

He has legit plus stuff, though many folks just focus on velocity. The vertical movement on his fastball is the best of any starter in the league by the metrics (99th percentile). Combined with plus command and secondary pitches that grade out to above average puts him in the category to be Marcus Stroman type pitcher.

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#33 Doctor Gast

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 03:15 PM

With a poor outing by Shoemaker. Dobnak should have the edge at #5 starter. Actually now I like Dobnak better than Happ for #4.
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#34 sampleSizeOfOne

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Posted 18 March 2021 - 06:40 PM

So...  my burning question. Will he make the all-star game as a starter, or a reliever?

 

By the by, where is this year's all-star game going to be played?


#35 IndianaTwin

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Posted 18 March 2021 - 07:21 PM

 

So...  my burning question. Will he make the all-star game as a starter, or a reliever?

 

By the by, where is this year's all-star game going to be played?

 

Atlanta. 


#36 Major League Ready

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 09:10 AM

An All-Star is a stretch. I would be real happy if this new slider gave him the out pitch he needs to be a middle of the rotation work horse for the next few years.

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#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 03:38 PM

With a poor outing by Shoemaker. Dobnak should have the edge at #5 starter. Actually now I like Dobnak better than Happ for #4.

Happ is in the rotation if he’s healthy and likely the same for Shoemaker.

It’s a bad idea to discard veteran starters before Opening Day. You’re going to need starters 6-8 soon enough and it only reduces depth to drop even an ineffective veteran before a real pitch is thrown.

Especially in this weird hangover season where so many of your 6-9 depth guys barely got in any work last season. It’s hard to predict what will happen if you need to lean on a Lewis Thorpe for 120 innings after the cluster**** of 2020.
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#38 Doctor Gast

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Posted 21 March 2021 - 04:24 PM

Understood, I'm not discarding anyone at this point. I agree we'll need maybe 7 starters to begin the season. Piggyback at least Happ and another for long relief. I also agree that we shouldn't put any stock on 2020.
I'm just expressing my evaluation so far this ST. And that I'm very impressed with Dobnak, if managed properly he could have a very productive season.
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#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 02:26 PM

Dobnak now at a 0/18 BB:K in 13.1 IP this spring.

Nice.
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#40 Doctor Gast

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Posted 28 March 2021 - 01:40 PM

Dobnak signed a 5yr. Contract,
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