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Twins Top Prospects - FanGraphs

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#41 drivlikejehu

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Posted 20 February 2021 - 01:47 PM

 

What great pitcher is on the roster that this front office developed? It's been plenty of time for at least one..... as for Lewis.... we'll see. He was the first overall pick, not the 20th..... so they better be right..

 

"Plenty of time"? Based on what logic? Absurd statement.

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#42 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 February 2021 - 02:11 PM

What great pitcher is on the roster that this front office developed? It's been plenty of time for at least one...

”Plenty of time”? Whaaaaat?

Their first draft was 2017. They essentially lost a development season in 2020, as did all of MLB.

Exactly how long do you think it takes to draft/sign and develop a great pitcher?

I’m far from assured that this front office has pitching locked down but you’ve been pretty unreasonable about their timelines from day one when you complained that they weren’t firing and replacing staff within two months of taking over what was a broken franchise at the time.

Never mind that drafting/signing is not the only way a franchise develops players. The Twins have shown with a myriad of pitchers, both starters and relievers, that they can acquire a veteran from another team (even highly respected ones like the Rays and Dodgers) and actually improve that pitcher’s results on the mound.
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#43 birdwatcher

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Posted 20 February 2021 - 08:57 PM

 

”Plenty of time”? Whaaaaat?

Their first draft was 2017. They essentially lost a development season in 2020, as did all of MLB.

Exactly how long do you think it takes to draft/sign and develop a great pitcher?

I’m far from assured that this front office has pitching locked down but you’ve been pretty unreasonable about their timelines from day one when you complained that they weren’t firing and replacing staff within two months of taking over what was a broken franchise at the time.

Never mind that drafting/signing is not the only way a franchise develops players. The Twins have shown with a myriad of pitchers, both starters and relievers, that they can acquire a veteran from another team (even highly respected ones like the Rays and Dodgers) and actually improve that pitcher’s results on the mound.

 

 

In tepid defense of Mike Sixtel, (coincidentally, I ingested some delicious mushrooms tonight ) I do understand his concern. Given a three year draft and development record, with 2020 being one of them, the amateur scouting people and Falvey passed over pitching in the first round. Mr. Sixtel may eat crow regarding one or more of Enlow, Raya, and Canterino picks, especially if he's open to comparing results team to team.

 

A couple things cross my mind. First, if the goal is to have the equivalence of first round drafts in your rotation? It's possible that Berrios, Pineda, and Maeda will anchor the rotation. These guys WERE first-rounders or the IFA equivalent. And the reality is that those two guys came to us for less cost and after much uncertainty was reduced. Pitching occupies its own special category when it comes to risk and uncertainty, right?

 

I don't know what a 30-team study will reveal, but we have a hint when we look at FanGraph's grades for CWS, CLE, and MIN. That's seven pitching prospects awarded a 45FV grade or better ( 3 of 7 are Twins), and all but one were drafted AFTER the first 20 overall selections, with the "outlier", Crochet, a projected reliever, picked 11th overall in his year. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the idea that it's essential to pick pitching early on in the draft.

 

Very few clubs are going to have a top 10 Power Ranking AND a top 10 prospect pipeline entering the 2021 season. The Twins will be one of them, it appears. This gives me hope that, if they have surplus positional talent, which we can envision certainly, that Falvey's pro scouts will continue to do well on the trade front more often than not. The recent evidence is promising: Maeda, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Vallimont, Smeltzer, etc.

 

 

 

 

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#44 Dman

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Posted 20 February 2021 - 09:46 PM

 

In tepid defense of Mike Sixtel, (coincidentally, I ingested some delicious mushrooms tonight ) I do understand his concern. Given a three year draft and development record, with 2020 being one of them, the amateur scouting people and Falvey passed over pitching in the first round. Mr. Sixtel may eat crow regarding one or more of Enlow, Raya, and Canterino picks, especially if he's open to comparing results team to team.

 

A couple things cross my mind. First, if the goal is to have the equivalence of first round drafts in your rotation? It's possible that Berrios, Pineda, and Maeda will anchor the rotation. These guys WERE first-rounders or the IFA equivalent. And the reality is that those two guys came to us for less cost and after much uncertainty was reduced. Pitching occupies its own special category when it comes to risk and uncertainty, right?

 

I don't know what a 30-team study will reveal, but we have a hint when we look at FanGraph's grades for CWS, CLE, and MIN. That's seven pitching prospects awarded a 45FV grade or better ( 3 of 7 are Twins), and all but one were drafted AFTER the first 20 overall selections, with the "outlier", Crochet, a projected reliever, picked 11th overall in his year. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the idea that it's essential to pick pitching early on in the draft.

 

Very few clubs are going to have a top 10 Power Ranking AND a top 10 prospect pipeline entering the 2021 season. The Twins will be one of them, it appears. This gives me hope that, if they have surplus positional talent, which we can envision certainly, that Falvey's pro scouts will continue to do well on the trade front more often than not. The recent evidence is promising: Maeda, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Vallimont, Smeltzer, etc.

 

In 2018 the Royals took 3 pitchers in the 1st round,Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch.They also Drafted Asa Lacy in the first round in 2020.Singer is no longer a prospect as he pitched enough at the MLB level to no longer be considered a prospect. So KC got a pitcher to MLB in two years from drafting him.That is pretty good but here is the rub the Twins took a guy who wasn't even drafted in 2017 and he pitched in MLB in 2019 so it only took Randy Dobnak two years to make it as well.So who did the better job of development? Singers ERA in 2020 4.06.Dobnaks ERA in 2020 4.05.Granted Singers K9 is much better than Dobnaks and his WHIP slightly better as well and he is likely to be the better pitcher of the two but what it does show is that good pitchers can be found almost anywhere from the first round to not even being picked.I personally think it shows that development is the true key to unlocking pitching success.

 

Am I saying don't take pitchers in the 1st round and rely on undrafted pitchers, heck no.In Lynch, Kowar, and Lacy I think the Royals are on the cusp of having a young, tough, legitimate rotation.I think those first round picks are going to develop quickly and have good stuff to boot. But here's the rub Cleveland got Bieber in the 4th round in 2017 and he was the best pitcher in the American league last year.You don't HAVE to grab pitchers in the first round to find success.

 

If the Twins get Sands and Winder to MLB this coming year that 2018 draft with Larnach and Jeffers at the top starts to look pretty special.It is too early to bank on that happening but you can see what the FO is thinking.Go with the fairly sure thing in predicting offense early in the draft then take your cracks at pitching which is much more volatile and can be found in the later rounds and developed.To me that seems to be their plan.I still think that they should take pitching early and late some years because you can trade good pitching for anything you want in baseball.If you can identify good pitchers you should take them because every team is looking for pitching and lot's of teams have an excess of other players.

 

In conclusion I don't think there is a one size fits all strategy, but right now I trust this FO.I think the decisions they make are based on good data and good strategies.Certainly I like to quibble but I don't have all the data that they have.Personally I don't think we have too much to complain about.They are not perfect but I think they as good as and or better than most.

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#45 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 February 2021 - 10:37 PM

 

In tepid defense of Mike Sixtel, (coincidentally, I ingested some delicious mushrooms tonight ) I do understand his concern. Given a three year draft and development record, with 2020 being one of them, the amateur scouting people and Falvey passed over pitching in the first round. Mr. Sixtel may eat crow regarding one or more of Enlow, Raya, and Canterino picks, especially if he's open to comparing results team to team.

 

A couple things cross my mind. First, if the goal is to have the equivalence of first round drafts in your rotation? It's possible that Berrios, Pineda, and Maeda will anchor the rotation. These guys WERE first-rounders or the IFA equivalent. And the reality is that those two guys came to us for less cost and after much uncertainty was reduced. Pitching occupies its own special category when it comes to risk and uncertainty, right?

 

I don't know what a 30-team study will reveal, but we have a hint when we look at FanGraph's grades for CWS, CLE, and MIN. That's seven pitching prospects awarded a 45FV grade or better ( 3 of 7 are Twins), and all but one were drafted AFTER the first 20 overall selections, with the "outlier", Crochet, a projected reliever, picked 11th overall in his year. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the idea that it's essential to pick pitching early on in the draft.

 

Very few clubs are going to have a top 10 Power Ranking AND a top 10 prospect pipeline entering the 2021 season. The Twins will be one of them, it appears. This gives me hope that, if they have surplus positional talent, which we can envision certainly, that Falvey's pro scouts will continue to do well on the trade front more often than not. The recent evidence is promising: Maeda, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Vallimont, Smeltzer, etc.

I also understand the concern but any evaluation of the front office is judging the race after the first or second lap. 

 

The reality is that no great pitchers have yet to emerge from the first three rounds of the 2017 or 2018 drafts. Sure, Singer looked promising but his debut was hardly breath-taking. The Angels have a guy who looks passable but little more. Neither were ranked higher than 50-ish on any major prospect ranking scale at any time.

 

Again, my point isn't to state definitively that the Twins have mastered development of pitchers, it's to call into question Mike's statement that boils down to "if they're good at developing pitchers, they should have developed a great one by now".

 

Because, since Falvine took office, literally zero of 30 teams have drafted and developed a "great" pitcher out of the first three rounds of the draft. And that's talking solely about the draft and not even international signings, which have a much longer timeline that often cannot be judged in six years, much less three or four.