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#41 The Wise One

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 07:27 PM

 

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

That Cruz provided what he has in every free agent contract is an outlier in the world of baseball . I haven't looked at the last few years contracts to see how much it has improved


#42 DocBauer

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 09:15 PM

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.
 
I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.
 
I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.


To some degree the market is shifting. We've seen it the last few years as franchises get a little bit smarter and smarter and look at data. Some scream collusion, but I see FO's just recognizing cost vs production and pulling up the reigns and just saying "whoa".

Of course, there will always be certain teams in certain markets that are willing to live with $ value losses in last years of contracts vs gain the early years. Not everyone can afford to do that. Few in fact.

Of course, everything from arbitration, service time, etc, is going to change in the next CB.

But for NOW, as far as the Twins are concerned, the dilemma is what Cruz is worth post 2020 amidst a covid situation and 2021 speculation.

Brock broke things down very succinctly in an earlier post, as Gleeman and John have also done previously. But Cruz is is in that unique and rare category. You can accept a super strong first 30 days in 2020 and a not so great last 30 days plus age and say no way. Of course, he was also the only hitter to produce in the embarrassing playoff loss.

Repeating myself yet again, 2020 was a "mixed up" year for a lot of guys. I want to use a word beginning with "F" because that's how crazy it was. I believe Cruz HAS ONE MORE good season in him. Based on history and reality, he may have an decent to good 2nd season available. Do the Twins bank on history or Cruz?

One more time again, an honest 1yr deal. A buyout for a 2nd year, if necessary.
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#43 Major League Ready

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Posted 10 January 2021 - 08:43 AM

 

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

 

Disagree, level of pay on a previous compensation has nothing to do with what any team is willing to pay for a free agent. It's pretty simple, the best way for an agent to make more money for their client and subsequently themselves is to negotiate contracts where compensation exceeds level of production for as long as possible. 


#44 Shaitan

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Posted 10 January 2021 - 10:31 AM

 

Disagree, level of pay on a previous compensation has nothing to do with what any team is willing to pay for a free agent. It's pretty simple, the best way for an agent to make more money for their client and subsequently themselves is to negotiate contracts where compensation exceeds level of production for as long as possible. 

I wasn't saying the Twins should pay him more because they owe him that for the past two years.

 

I'm saying that Cruz will ask for more money based on his performance the past 2 seasons.

 

And, in response to others, I also agree and doubt Cruz has 2 years of above average performance left. But I think you have to pay that price to get the 1 above average year. And I think, weighing the pros/cons and comparing what you'll get from others, that it's the right move to overpay him for a second year even you don't believe he'll produce at that value. 


#45 baul0010

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Posted 11 January 2021 - 11:24 AM

I'm getting to the point I'll take any action right now!Sign Cruz, don't sign Cruz, trade, free agent....ANYTHING!Well, anything more than Hansel Robles.


#46 baul0010

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Posted 11 January 2021 - 11:34 AM

 

Agree and disagree. And while I don't believe he belongs directly as a discussion point in this particular OP, he was brought up and I couldn't resist commenting. For the record, I also believe in him and still value him pretty highly at this point.

NOT meaning to hijack this thread in any way, but again, his name was brought up.

1] Despite frustration with his career thus far, he won't be 28 until May 11th of this new year.

2] Despite a late start to 2019 due to a freak and poorly addressed injury, from new conditioning and continued maturity..some of which may be attributed to Cruz's influence...he had the best season of his career with a .923 OPS.

3] His career OPS is .829 at this point!

4] He not only embraced his move to 1B to make room for Donaldson, he made a video encouraging him to sign on. While we all saw flaws in basic things such as covering 1B instead of going for a ball he shouldn't have, or trying to flatten teammates chasing foul pop-up, (3B instincts and trying too hard), he generally played a good to great 1B.

5] 2020 saw vast abnormalities all across baseball with hitters. Can we at least give the maturing Sano a full and "normal" 2021 season before we make any sort of final determination concerning his value?

Maybe he will never be the #4 hitter we dreamed about and will settle in, instead, as a very dangerous #5-6 hitter who is streaky but highly productive while playing a quality 1B and also DH. But again, can we just give him 2021 before we chastise or give up on him?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel like Sano needs to settle in at DH.Sometimes people are just a little too big or a little too clumsy to play in the field.Lots of great hitters settled in at DH and had amazing careers.You didn't really want to see Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, or Jim Thome in the field if you didn't have to. 

 

I would like Kirilloff to settle in at 1B.He should improve our infield defense while also offsetting some of the HR's we'll miss from Rosario.Hopefully if Sano can focus on hitting, he will have 1 week stikeout fits instead of 3 weekers.You are correct.If Cruz and Rosario's HR's are gone...we need to sign or trade for a BIG bat to help replace that production.  

 


#47 Dodecahedron

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 09:09 AM

Most teams will be cutting salary or staying the same this year, and possibly next year too. If Cruz is holding out for cash, he may have taken his final at bat.

 

If I were in his position at this point in time, I would probably walk away from the game. It's not going to be a fun year.


#48 4twinsJA

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 10:43 AM

Cruz retire or only put another 10-12 million in pocket next year. Would not be difficult decision for me, I will have hard time feeling sorry for Cruz if only gets 10M.


#49 amjgt

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Posted 13 January 2021 - 11:49 AM

 

Most teams will be cutting salary or staying the same this year, and possibly next year too. If Cruz is holding out for cash, he may have taken his final at bat.

 

If I were in his position at this point in time, I would probably walk away from the game. It's not going to be a fun year.

 

What's not going to be fun about this year?


#50 insagt1

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Posted 15 January 2021 - 08:42 AM

its jan 15th. anyone in Minnesota have additional clarity on whether they want to re-sign Cruz? Also is it out of the realm of possibility to trade Sano, given the right offer? I keep wondering if what we got from him last year is his true ceiling. The long slumps and frequent k's are not very promising. but maybe Twins fans aren't ready to give up on him just yet.


#51 Thegrin

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Posted 15 January 2021 - 05:05 PM

No Cruz ?

Sano

Garver

Jeffers

Donaldson

Cave

Kirilloff

Rooker

Turtle

 

Need I continue?:)


#52 jud6312

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Posted 15 January 2021 - 05:21 PM

 

No Cruz ?

Sano

Garver

Jeffers

Donaldson

Cave

Kirilloff

Rooker

Turtle

 

Need I continue?:)

 

Your list should've ended at Rooker.


#53 Thegrin

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Posted 15 January 2021 - 09:38 PM

but, but, but ... Turtle is hitting up a storm in the Winter League... thats got t mean something... to someone... sometime...maybe...:D


#54 ashbury

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Posted 16 January 2021 - 07:55 AM

but, but, but ... Turtle is hitting up a storm in the Winter League... thats got t mean something... to someone... sometime...maybe...:D

Pretty sure your post is tongue in cheek, but just to be overly serious, the three other regulars on his team with OPS likewise above 900 are guys with AAAA credentials at best. The league this year looks like it provides good quality opposition for a youngster on the rise to cut his teeth on in winter ball, but that's it.
 

Look back & be grateful, look ahead & be hopeful, look around & be helpful.