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#21 h2oface

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Posted 23 December 2020 - 04:22 AM

 

The likelihood of Cruz being a .900 to 1.000 ops as a 40 year old are super slim!I love him, but he's old and he was looking old at the end of last year.That was with a 60 game schedule.He won't keep this up forever.You can't find the next Cruz by keeping the young fellas on the bench.

 

I agree. He looked a lot older than when he was 38. Totally. The chances were slim in 2017, and 2018, and 2019 and...... He looked a ton older than someone like, say, a 32 year old Brian Dozier, or a 25-26 year old Miguel Sano - and a ton older than Christian Yelich looked in 2020, and was just lucky to out perform just about any one in MLB. You can't find the next Cruz anywhere. He is a freak of nature. So freak-out! 1 or two more years is pretty far from forever.

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#22 TopGunn#22

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Posted 23 December 2020 - 06:47 PM

Look guys, I'm all for trading Sano and getting a starting pitcher (Marquez or Gray from Colorado)? not because I want to "re-tool."

I want to move on from Sano because I think he's a rally killer with all the K's and that Kiriloff will instantly be better for the lineup.

I think Colorado isn't contending for YEARS with the Dodgers and the Padres and they need a BOMB once in a while to keep the fans interested.And the Rockies have nobody at 1B.But you put Marquez in our rotation and Kiriloff in our lineup and I think we're instantly BETTER than if we had Sano.  

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#23 goulik

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Posted 25 December 2020 - 10:43 AM

So looking at the trade simulator, Sano has a Negative trade value so trading him is probably not going to get you what you think it will and also probably means many of us (including me) value him more highly than most of the baseball world.

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#24 stringer bell

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Posted 25 December 2020 - 03:29 PM

Cruz' second half of 2020 (30 games) was very ordinary. Does that matter to anyone? 2020 was such a strange year maybe it shouldn't count for much, but then again maybe his insanely good stats in July and early August shouldn't count for as much either. 

 

I'd like to see Cruz with the Twins in 2021, but I do think a second year shouldn't be guaranteed.

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#25 dxpavelka

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Posted 26 December 2020 - 04:38 PM

And by logjam you're really talking about 3 guys.History says that in that situation what generally happens is that MAYBE one of the 3 meets expectations, one ends up being an average big league player and one fails miserably.Letting your top two run producers walk and HOPING the guys you have waiting in the wings are ready to perform at their level from day one is a potential recipe for disaster.

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#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 09:20 AM

 

I agree. He looked a lot older than when he was 38. Totally. The chances were slim in 2017, and 2018, and 2019 and...... He looked a ton older than someone like, say, a 32 year old Brian Dozier, or a 25-26 year old Miguel Sano - and a ton older than Christian Yelich looked in 2020, and was just lucky to out perform just about any one in MLB. You can't find the next Cruz anywhere. He is a freak of nature. So freak-out! 1 or two more years is pretty far from forever.

The problem is that Cruz, like all of us, is mortal. He's also at the age where decline comes in a hurry. The number of great hitters at age 40 is very small in the history of MLB... but the percentage of those same players who were out of baseball completely at age 42 is very high. Cruz is at the age where literally the best hitters in the history of the game stopped being good at baseball.

 

Jim Thome was a beast at age 39. At age 40, he was good. At age 41, he retired.

 

Frank Thomas was a beast at age 38, good at 39, and retired at 40.

 

When the fall comes, it comes in a hurry. I'm moderately comfortable with Cruz signing for his age 41 season but have absolutely no faith in guaranteeing his age 42 season.

 

My line in the sand would be a generous offer for 2021 with an option and generous buyout (say $3m) for 2022. Give him a nice incentive to stick around without risking $15m on a 42 year old hitter.

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#27 AWOLNATION_11

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 11:10 AM

I wonder if Justin Turner would make sense as an alternative.I'm not sure what kind of contract he's looking at next, but a productive bat and could play some 3B and 1B creating a bit of a 1B/3B/DH rotation with others also mixed in here and there.  

 


#28 Dodecahedron

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 10:40 AM

 

Not aimed directly at you here . I'm sick of hearing this or things close to it. Yes the Twins haven't done much but the same can be said for just about every team. If players were signing and lots of trades were being made I'd get it. But we need to be patient and wait until things start to happen all across the majors.

 

We are all sick of it.

 

But this is usually the right take.

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#29 Physics Guy

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 12:09 PM

I've made mention of this on at least a couple of threads, but I really think the Twins should at least explore LeMahieu as a Util/DH player. MLBTradeRumors estimated him at 4/68, which is well below the 5/100M that is rumored to be his asking price. I could see a 5/85-90M contract midpoint working for the Twins. He would likely be a step down from Cruz's past two years, but might not be a downgrade from what we should expect from Cruz this year.The big advantage I see with LeMahieu is that he could play20-30 games in relief of Donaldson, Arraez and Sano, all of whom have had a difficult time staying healthy.Even if DJ was a step down from Cruz, I think the added benefit of keeping the others healthy in the lineup could be a net positive for the Twins.The Twins would only need to then sign a true backup SS for the hitting side of the roster.Ultimately I don't think the Twins can outbid NY if they want to bring him back, but they should be exploring this option.  


#30 tony&rodney

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 03:57 PM

LeMatieu had a fine year in New York and received justified adulation from all. I'm not sure he is going to be ready to sign elsewhere unless the Yankees simply say no. Their crappy little park was designed for players like him and the NYY have the most money. both sides are being a little stubborn right now but everyone expects LeMatieu back in pinstripes. 

Nevertheless, i wholeheartedly agree that the Twins should at least be making a call and explore the possibility of a LeMatieu contract. He fills so many roles. It just seems like a real stretch for Minnesota.


#31 Physics Guy

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 05:12 PM

 

LeMatieu had a fine year in New York and received justified adulation from all. I'm not sure he is going to be ready to sign elsewhere unless the Yankees simply say no. Their crappy little park was designed for players like him and the NYY have the most money. both sides are being a little stubborn right now but everyone expects LeMatieu back in pinstripes. 

Nevertheless, i wholeheartedly agree that the Twins should at least be making a call and explore the possibility of a LeMatieu contract. He fills so many roles. It just seems like a real stretch for Minnesota.

Totally agree. I don't think there is a chance, but he would check a ton of boxes. As Ted Schwerzler wrote, another option that can probably be acquired relatively cheaply, if the Darvish trade is any indication, is Kris Bryant. He could play 3B, 1B and LF. He would check many of the same boxes as DJ. Again, the only other position needed would be a middle IF utility player.


#32 tony&rodney

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 05:30 PM

For some reason Bryant is completely unattractive in my eyes; he is so stiff. When his swing is on there is such poetry in those whistling line drives and when he seems energized he plays decent defense as well.

Too many times, however, Bryant seems out of tune. He is such a difficult player to evaluate going forward.

There is a wide swing in his future from total bust to MVP candidate that I cannot see the Twins taking a chance on his productivity going forward. Bryant does possess utility if he still has any gas left. I guess no.

Having said that, I still find it egregious that the Cubs manipulated his playing time to save a few bucks. The Twins needs to put their best team on the field and ignore a potential extra year from Kirilloff or others. The next CBA will eliminate this bogus loophole and it will be effective immediately. 

Trade options continue to exist and an attractive option to fill DH is accepting Nick Castellanos as the anchor to gaining Sonny Gray (better yet but extremely unlikely Luis Castillo) in a blockbuster with the Reds. This takes care of DH and provides some flexibility for 1B, 3B, and corner OF spots, which admittedly arenot current concerns. There must be some wild discussions amongst baseball executives.


#33 Shaitan

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 06:47 PM

I'd rather have 2 years of (overpriced) aging Cruz than 4 of Ozuna or LaMattheiu -- neither of whom are going to be worth their contract at the end.


#34 baul0010

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Posted 08 January 2021 - 07:53 PM

There's a good chance Cruz ain't worth his contact this year. I don't see why everyone wants to pretend father time isn't undefeated. We had great years with Cruz but that doesn't mean we have to keep paying him during what will mostly likely be a steep decline. I'd rather lose Cruz a year early than get stuck footing the bill a year late. If we want to contend we need to spend our money wisely. The F.O. spent the Cruz money wisely, he outplayed his contact. If Cruz wants 1 year, give it to him. Anything more and it's time to move on.
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#35 Rosterman

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 03:27 PM

When Donaldson is at DH, who plays third? That's a BIG potential dropoff.

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#36 DocBauer

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 04:35 PM

When Donaldson is at DH, who plays third? That's a BIG potential dropoff.


Which why the 10th and 11th man spots are so important for 2021.

The good news is there are so many viable options. The bad news is there are too many questions to be answered at this point. And we are stuck in a "what is best" and "what does the FO REALLY think/feel at this point. And part of that does revolve around Cruz.

If the FO rolls with Polanco at SS, and believes a normal ST and normal season will happen and Polanco is expected to be healthy and ready to go after a "minor" procedure on his ankle, you can find $ room for Cruz and sign a pair of quality 10th and 11th guys to flesh out the roster. And while OF depth doesn't mean those guys HAVE to play OF, let's just say Hernandez or Profar were brought on board for around $6M. There are so many really solid options floating out there that could help by bringing a decent bat and 3 position flexibility for $2-3M.

Example: Hernandez covers over half the field and you then sign from a list of Gyorko, Frazier, Miller and Cabrera, amongst others, for the 11th man spot. Or, you could go cheap for a return of Adrianza even. This actually the easiest and least expensive option.

NOW, let's say the FO interest in one of the top SS on the FA market it legitimate, it's going to cost $12-13M with Polanco moving to the 10th man role and you still need an 11th man option you feel good about. Reference the same names I've listed above. With additional needs to be addressed, you've cut in to $ enough you probably can't afford Cruz. And if do, then you have to find a quality SP on the cheap via FA or trade as well as at least ONE more solid BP piece, maybe two, on the inexpensive side.

You can't lose the power and production of BOTH Cruz and Rosario in a single off-season. SOMEWHERE a bat has to be added or kept. But until the FO makes some sort of decision at SS and on Cruz, projections of any sort are folly.
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#37 DocBauer

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 04:43 PM

The problem is that Cruz, like all of us, is mortal. He's also at the age where decline comes in a hurry. The number of great hitters at age 40 is very small in the history of MLB... but the percentage of those same players who were out of baseball completely at age 42 is very high. Cruz is at the age where literally the best hitters in the history of the game stopped being good at baseball.
 
Jim Thome was a beast at age 39. At age 40, he was good. At age 41, he retired.
 
Frank Thomas was a beast at age 38, good at 39, and retired at 40.
 
When the fall comes, it comes in a hurry. I'm moderately comfortable with Cruz signing for his age 41 season but have absolutely no faith in guaranteeing his age 42 season.
 
My line in the sand would be a generous offer for 2021 with an option and generous buyout (say $3m) for 2022. Give him a nice incentive to stick around without risking $15m on a 42 year old hitter.


I can't agree with this more!

My hunch/belief is the short 2020 season works in Cruz's favor, leaving more tread on the tire, as it were. I have a strong belief he bas one more really good season left in him. After that, should any sort of 2nd yr option be involved, it would be of the belief he would be at least decent-good while no longer being what he has been.

I prefer a 1yr deal. But agreed a nice buyout 2nd yr option with lower salary wouldn't be killer. If he performed well enough to earn the 2nd yr being picked up, it would be a decent risk. At that point, we're talking a 1yr deal. As the old saying goes, is there such a thing as a bad 1yr deal?
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

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#38 DocBauer

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 05:37 PM

So looking at the trade simulator, Sano has a Negative trade value so trading him is probably not going to get you what you think it will and also probably means many of us (including me) value him more highly than most of the baseball world.


Agree and disagree. And while I don't believe he belongs directly as a discussion point in this particular OP, he was brought up and I couldn't resist commenting. For the record, I also believe in him and still value him pretty highly at this point.

NOT meaning to hijack this thread in any way, but again, his name was brought up.

1] Despite frustration with his career thus far, he won't be 28 until May 11th of this new year.

2] Despite a late start to 2019 due to a freak and poorly addressed injury, from new conditioning and continued maturity..some of which may be attributed to Cruz's influence...he had the best season of his career with a .923 OPS.

3] His career OPS is .829 at this point!

4] He not only embraced his move to 1B to make room for Donaldson, he made a video encouraging him to sign on. While we all saw flaws in basic things such as covering 1B instead of going for a ball he shouldn't have, or trying to flatten teammates chasing foul pop-up, (3B instincts and trying too hard), he generally played a good to great 1B.

5] 2020 saw vast abnormalities all across baseball with hitters. Can we at least give the maturing Sano a full and "normal" 2021 season before we make any sort of final determination concerning his value?

Maybe he will never be the #4 hitter we dreamed about and will settle in, instead, as a very dangerous #5-6 hitter who is streaky but highly productive while playing a quality 1B and also DH. But again, can we just give him 2021 before we chastise or give up on him?
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"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

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#39 The Wise One

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 06:04 PM

 

I'd rather have 2 years of (overpriced) aging Cruz than 4 of Ozuna or LaMattheiu -- neither of whom are going to be worth their contract at the end.

How many longer contracts have been worth it at the end?

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#40 Shaitan

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Posted 09 January 2021 - 07:15 PM

 

How many longer contracts have been worth it at the end?

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

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