Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Rosario Placed on Outright Waiver

  • Please log in to reply
69 replies to this topic

#41 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 05:43 PM

 

I will say this about Rosario. He has an edge. He will be a great buy low opportunity for someone. He will not forget the way he is being treated by MLB right now. My guess is the guy gets in the gym and works and works and has another great year next year. 

 

Obviously, this is just a guess. But this guy has heart and soul. Now you are handing it(the team) over to a guy like Buxton that has none of that. He cracks his finger nail and he will sit out for a dang playoff series. Or a guy like Sano that could be Miguel Cabrera in his prime, but likes cheeseburgers and the couch too much. 

 

That said, as this team is constructed, this is probably the right move. We just have so many young kids that play his position and can likely do it close to as well(possibly better) for much cheaper. 

 

I believe he as the ability to be absolutely great but his physical condition has very little to do with his productivity being average since the middle of 2018, IMO. His approach and plate disciple is in the bottom 1-2% of the league. His enormous talent allows him to produce reasonably well in spite of his horrid plate discipline. IMO, developing a better approach would far outweigh anything he could do in terms of conditioning. He has demonstrated an unwillingness or inability to do this for the last 2 1/2 seasons. Who knows ... this could be the thing that makes him willing to adapt.

  • kenbuddha and wsnydes like this

#42 Crackedfungo

Crackedfungo

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 133 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 07:57 PM

 

WAR pHoohy. I stand with my statement of Rosario being better than Buxton or Kepler.

When Buxton and Kepler put up the same numbers Rosario did over the last 4 years then I'll believe they are better. Until then you are blowing smoke up my you know what with your WAR theory!

Rosario: 94 HR's, 306RBI's, Career BA of .277

Buxton: 39 HR's, 128 RBI's, Career BA of .238

Kepler: 84 HR's, 241 RBI's, Career BA of .237

 

Career BA is a good comparison. Kepler has played 1 less season than Buxton and Rosario so it's not a big difference maker.

The Twins will regret this for at least 1-2 years.I almost guarantee that he will be tuned up for a game with the Twins and will be a bit like Big Papi.I get the business case, but Rosario will end up having a better total career than Buxton or Kepler.Sorry, that is just the case.Buxton cannot stay healthy and has been inconsistent, and Kepler just cannot translate a great swing into a consistent average or consistent power.Rosario will prove this to be true.Unfortunately, we couldn't get him to agree to the longer/cheaper deal that Kepler has, which I think (in conjunction with the young options) created the situation at present.This was the result of Rosario breaking in earlier, and having more arbitration leverage than the other two earlier.I still stand by my prediction that he will be a more reliable threat than Buxton or Kepler, and that the 2-3 rookies will not approach his production in HRs and RBIs for at least 3 years.Lastly, I don't get why the Twins are so ready to move in youngsters to everyday positions, but less so for SPs?They keep bringing in older retreads, and clearly drag out young SPs too long (starting with Romero - whom they screwed up, and it remains to be seen whether Duran and Balazo will be brought up before some warts show).


#43 Danchat

Danchat

    Pro Bowl Armchair QB

  • Member
  • 5,900 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 08:50 PM

 

WAR pHoohy. I stand with my statement of Rosario being better than Buxton or Kepler.

When Buxton and Kepler put up the same numbers Rosario did over the last 4 years then I'll believe they are better. Until then you are blowing smoke up my you know what with your WAR theory!

Rosario: 94 HR's, 306RBI's, Career BA of .277

Buxton: 39 HR's, 128 RBI's, Career BA of .238

Kepler: 84 HR's, 241 RBI's, Career BA of .237

 

Career BA is a good comparison. Kepler has played 1 less season than Buxton and Rosario so it's not a big difference maker.

It's one thing to not like WAR, and another to completely throw out the fielding portion of the comparison, where Buxton is an elite game-changer when healthy and Rosario has been slowing down. Also, I'd rather know their RBI % rather than just the raw number, since Kepler has usually been in the #1 / #6 spot in the lineup and Buxton has usually been #9. Eddie's been in the #4 spot, and has had far more chances to hit in runs than the other two. 

  • ashbury, spanman2 and wsnydes like this

#44 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 07:18 AM

 

WAR pHoohy. I stand with my statement of Rosario being better than Buxton or Kepler.

When Buxton and Kepler put up the same numbers Rosario did over the last 4 years then I'll believe they are better. Until then you are blowing smoke up my you know what with your WAR theory!

Rosario: 94 HR's, 306RBI's, Career BA of .277

Buxton: 39 HR's, 128 RBI's, Career BA of .238

Kepler: 84 HR's, 241 RBI's, Career BA of .237

 

Career BA is a good comparison. Kepler has played 1 less season than Buxton and Rosario so it's not a big difference maker.

 

Career BA is not only not a good comparison it's a very incomplete comparison. OPS or wRC+ are much better measures of productivity. 

 

Career numbers are also not the best measure. Eddie was better 3-5 years ago. Problem is the league adapts to players. Some can adjust and others are not able.More recent information is a better predictor. Since 7/1/18-present …

 

Rosario has ABs 1082 ABs and
HRs - 51
wRC+ 97
OPS 760

 

Kepler has 1097 ABs and
HRs - 57
wRC+ 114
OPS 811

 

Perhaps that’s why Streamer’s projected wRC+ for the two players in 2021 is 105 / 113 in favor of Kepler. Let’s not forget defense matters as well which is why Kepler’s war since the last half of 2018 is 7.0 and Rosario’s is a meager 2.2.

  • Twins33 and wsnydes like this

#45 Dodecahedron

Dodecahedron

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 94 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 08:37 AM

 

Career BA is not only not a good comparison it's a very incomplete comparison. OPS or wRC+ are much better measures of productivity. 

 

Career numbers are also not the best measure. Eddie was better 3-5 years ago. Problem is the league adapts to players. Some can adjust and others are not able.More recent information is a better predictor. Since 7/1/18-present …

 

Rosario has ABs 1082 ABs and
HRs - 51
wRC+ 97
OPS 760

 

Kepler has 1097 ABs and
HRs - 57
wRC+ 114
OPS 811

 

Perhaps that’s why Streamer’s projected wRC+ for the two players in 2021 is 105 / 113 in favor of Kepler. Let’s not forget defense matters as well which is why Kepler’s war since the last half of 2018 is 7.0 and Rosario’s is a meager 2.2.

 

The problem with the "Since the middle of 2018" theory is it includes 2019, which was Kepler's one outstanding year coupled with a down year for Rosario. Those small sample sizes will get ya every time.

 

For comparison, Rosario's 2018 performance, by WAR, was equal to Kepler's 2019 performance. So... Rosario sucks? Rosario and Kepler had a nearly identical WAR in 2020, with Rosario having a slight lead.

 

If we want to look at the data objectively, either both of these guys suck or neither of them suck, depending on how you define "suck." Any other conclusion is just cherry picking.

 

I think if anyone believes that a healthy Rosario, at age 29, will never have another outstanding year, and never be as good as or better than Kepler again, is fooling themselves.

  • Rigby and tony&rodney like this

#46 drivlikejehu

drivlikejehu

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,226 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 09:43 AM

The simple fact is that 0 out of 30 MLB teams think Rosario is an above-average player. Any team could have had him without giving up anything, and just paying his arbitration salary.

 

So for those folks that think Rosario is obviously an above-average player, the necessary conclusion is that those posters are better at evaluating players than all 30 MLB organizations.

 

I personally struggle to see how that could possibly be true, but ymmv.

 

 

  • Twins33, Major League Ready and kenbuddha like this

If you ain't got no haters, you ain't poppin'.


#47 ashbury

ashbury

    Twins fan for life!

  • Member
  • 26,142 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 04 December 2020 - 09:49 AM

Comparing Rosario/Buxton/Kepler looks deceptively simple because they came up at about the same time. But their ages complicate the comparison.

 

It's generally agreed that baseball players continue to learn and improve into their mid-twenties, after which further learning starts to be offset by aging. It's different for each player but it's a decent rule of thumb. A player may be ready to contribute at age 21, and it's fine to bring him up to the majors if so, but you have to recognize you aren't likely seeing his best, yet.

 

Eddie is almost 1.5 years older than Max, and more than 2 years older than Byron. This matters, when you simply aggregate several years of past performance.

 

Eddie had his best year at age 26 (using b-r.com's assignment of ages). Max had his best year so far at... age 26. Byron had his only (nearly) complete season at age 23, and his age 25-26 numbers have been better but in smaller quantity due to injury.

 

Looking at things this way seems to be a better way of roughly forecasting the coming season or two, and supports the idea that both Buxton and Kepler have passed up Rosario in terms of what to expect. And they both will play 2021 for less money than Rosario is likely to get.

 

If Kirilloff is judged by the front office to be ready, it could be that by mid-season Eddie would have been a fourth-outfielder. And a team like the Twins doesn't typically pay its fourth outfielder the most money of the four. Buxton's an injury risk, Kirilloff's a performance risk, so they could have gone that route anyway. But it's at least understandable that they didn't.

  • kenbuddha and wsnydes like this

Look back & be grateful, look ahead & be hopeful, look around & be helpful.


#48 dex8425

dex8425

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 370 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 12:05 PM

 

WAR pHoohy. I stand with my statement of Rosario being better than Buxton or Kepler.

When Buxton and Kepler put up the same numbers Rosario did over the last 4 years then I'll believe they are better. Until then you are blowing smoke up my you know what with your WAR theory!

Rosario: 94 HR's, 306RBI's, Career BA of .277

Buxton: 39 HR's, 128 RBI's, Career BA of .238

Kepler: 84 HR's, 241 RBI's, Career BA of .237

 

Career BA is a good comparison. Kepler has played 1 less season than Buxton and Rosario so it's not a big difference maker.

Career BA is not a good comparison. Nobody cares about batting average anymore. 


#49 dex8425

dex8425

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 370 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 12:08 PM

Great article here, not sure if it has been posted yet. 

https://theathletic....ins-non-tender/


#50 dex8425

dex8425

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 370 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 12:17 PM

 

Is Eddie worth 10m for his average production over the last 3-4 years in MLB baseball in 2021? Definitely yes if you don't look at pandemic related possible changes, probably yes even with those. Will Kirrlloff/Rooker replace his production in 2021? 

 

 

Look at LB left fielder salaries. Yelich is making 14 million. Benintendi is making 6 million. Soto is making 6.5. Cory Dickerson 9.5 million. Anthony Santander raked last year. 2m. 

 

So no, Rosario is most definitely not worth 10 mil for his future production. That is why he went unclaimed by every team.LF is not a premium position, which is why unless your name is Christian Yelich or Andrew Mccutcheon, you're not getting paid a lot to play left field. 

 

Rooker is a terrible defender and won't be the every day LF. I expect it to be AK, and he can replace Eddie's production, or if not, he should be close, and then the team can spend the money on an elite reliever. 

  • Battle ur tail off likes this

#51 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 746 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 01:54 PM

 

I believe he as the ability to be absolutely great but his physical condition has very little to do with his productivity being average since the middle of 2018, IMO. His approach and plate disciple is in the bottom 1-2% of the league. His enormous talent allows him to produce reasonably well in spite of his horrid plate discipline. IMO, developing a better approach would far outweigh anything he could do in terms of conditioning. He has demonstrated an unwillingness or inability to do this for the last 2 1/2 seasons. Who knows ... this could be the thing that makes him willing to adapt.

 

The game ain't played on paper, me-boy!

 

Winners-win.


#52 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 06:58 PM

 

The problem with the "Since the middle of 2018" theory is it includes 2019, which was Kepler's one outstanding year coupled with a down year for Rosario. Those small sample sizes will get ya every time.

 

For comparison, Rosario's 2018 performance, by WAR, was equal to Kepler's 2019 performance. So... Rosario sucks? Rosario and Kepler had a nearly identical WAR in 2020, with Rosario having a slight lead.

 

If we want to look at the data objectively, either both of these guys suck or neither of them suck, depending on how you define "suck." Any other conclusion is just cherry picking.

 

I think if anyone believes that a healthy Rosario, at age 29, will never have another outstanding year, and never be as good as or better than Kepler again, is fooling themselves.

 

For starters, I have made a pivotal assumption. Rosario was absolutely fantastic in the last half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. The last half of 18 he played at replacement level and has not been even remotely as good every since. The assumption is the league adjusted. I welcome any other theories if you care to reject my assumption. 

 

You are assuming my position is Rosario sucks and Kepler is great. My position is Kepler improved significantly on his weakness which was left hand pitching. Rosario has not adjusted and therefore Kepler has been better offensively. The number are crystal clear if you accept something significant changed after Rosario's exceptional performance from the 2nd half of 2017-1st half of 2018. Add to this Kepler is much better defensively. He can even play an important role in backing up CF and his cost was about half of the arbitration estimates for Rosario. It's not simply Rosario vs Kepler. It's Kepler + $5M to be used toward a SP or one of the better utility guys or a couple BP arms vs Rosario. For some reason this reality is be ignored by many.


#53 jkcarew

jkcarew

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,919 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 07:41 PM

 

Ask yourself this: If you are old enough to remember, could you see the late 80s championship Twins teams getting rid of a player like a 29-year old Rosario to avoid paying him a mediocre wage? Nevermind that the 90s -10s teams would not keep him.

Huh? The ‘87 champion Twins did exactly that. The ‘88 Twins got rid of an ‘expensive’ Tom Brunansky at age 27...and after a significantly better year than what Rosario just had. Happens all the time...and has everything to do with the overall roster and payroll and little to do with what the player can provide in absolute terms.


#54 jkcarew

jkcarew

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,919 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 07:47 PM

It was a no-brainer given the arriving options...and the league has further validated this.

 

Having said that, I will miss watching his at-bats. Never knew what would happen. The hands were...and are...amazing. Hands so quick and so strong that he frequently could do considerable damage, even without ever appearing to have a consistent plan or approach.


#55 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 05 December 2020 - 07:22 AM

 

The game ain't played on paper, me-boy!

 

Winners-win.

 

Apparently not one of the 30 GMs in MLB have your unique understanding of player value.

 

Yes, his enthusiasm has some benefit. It also promotes frequent defensive mistakes, poor base running and a lot of absolutely horrid ABs. They might interpret winners as players like Donaldson who's intensity results in consistent ABs, solid defense and most of all consistent/excellent results. Eddie has had one period (2nd 1/2 of 2017-1st half of 2018) where he has performed above average. The other 80% of his career he has been average of below average but let's not let hard facts distract for understanding not one GM understood Eddie's value. I guess we need to understand when we win 101 games as we did in 2019 that it was Eddie willing us to win even though he was 11th in WAR among position players. Here I thought all of those players that played better than him were the key.to winning. 


#56 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 1,875 posts

Posted 05 December 2020 - 05:29 PM

 

For starters, I have made a pivotal assumption. Rosario was absolutely fantastic in the last half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. The last half of 18 he played at replacement level and has not been even remotely as good every since. The assumption is the league adjusted. I welcome any other theories if you care to reject my assumption. 

 

You are assuming my position is Rosario sucks and Kepler is great. My position is Kepler improved significantly on his weakness which was left hand pitching. Rosario has not adjusted and therefore Kepler has been better offensively. The number are crystal clear if you accept something significant changed after Rosario's exceptional performance from the 2nd half of 2017-1st half of 2018. Add to this Kepler is much better defensively. He can even play an important role in backing up CF and his cost was about half of the arbitration estimates for Rosario. It's not simply Rosario vs Kepler. It's Kepler + $5M to be used toward a SP or one of the better utility guys or a couple BP arms vs Rosario. For some reason this reality is be ignored by many.

I agree that the comparison between Rosario and Kepler has to include Kepler's superior defense and lower salary, and that it is rational to save the additional roughly $3-5m Rosario costs and could even help the team IF its used on other player improvements. We will see if that's the case; I hope it is.  

 

I think what I and others on this site don't get is the idea that Kepler is anywhere near equivalent as a hitter to Rosario. Outside of 2019, he simply isn't even close. Comparing their OPS+ for the last 4 seasons (2017-2020) - Rosario 119, 116, 107, 115. Kepler - 95, 97, 123 (2019), 108. Why is Rosario easily better each year except 2019? Because Kepler can't hit left handed pitching, except for 2019. Kepler's splits vs. LH (2017-2020) - .152/.213/.240 (.453 - horrible), .245/.313/.422 (.745 - not bad, except better than he hit RH ptiching so overall not great), .293/.356.524 (.880 - great), and .128/.208/.170 (.378 - horrible again). So, is that evidence of steady improvement with 2020 a blip because of "unusual circumstances", or is this evidence that the guy can't really hit LH very well and had a career year in 2019? Who knows? What we do know is that his OPS+ tells us that he's a below average hitter for a corner OF, who in MLB should be at or above .785-.800 year in, year out.

 

Don't get me wrong, Kepler is a fine player and I'm glad we have him long term. But let's not kid ourselves about what he is - he's a very good to excellent fielding corner OF who can be an average or slightly above CF in a pinch, who runs well, has power, but is overall a below average hitter for his position. He's not a great leadoff hitter and he's not going ot be able to replace Rosario in the middle of the order. The Twins are going to have to find someone else to do that job.And that's why some of us are concerned that Rosario was let go and are hoping that the plan is something other than a hope that a rookie will be able to repalce his production in the middle of the order. Kepler is not that guy. He should hit 6 or 7 after Sano, who should hit 5 or 6 depending on whether Cruz hits 3 or 4, assuming Cruz is back.I wonder about our batting order if Cruz isn't back. It could be ugly. 

  • Hosken Bombo Disco likes this

#57 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 07 December 2020 - 07:24 AM

 

I agree that the comparison between Rosario and Kepler has to include Kepler's superior defense and lower salary, and that it is rational to save the additional roughly $3-5m Rosario costs and could even help the team IF its used on other player improvements. We will see if that's the case; I hope it is.  

 

I think what I and others on this site don't get is the idea that Kepler is anywhere near equivalent as a hitter to Rosario. Outside of 2019, he simply isn't even close. Comparing their OPS+ for the last 4 seasons (2017-2020) - Rosario 119, 116, 107, 115. Kepler - 95, 97, 123 (2019), 108. Why is Rosario easily better each year except 2019? Because Kepler can't hit left handed pitching, except for 2019. Kepler's splits vs. LH (2017-2020) - .152/.213/.240 (.453 - horrible), .245/.313/.422 (.745 - not bad, except better than he hit RH ptiching so overall not great), .293/.356.524 (.880 - great), and .128/.208/.170 (.378 - horrible again). So, is that evidence of steady improvement with 2020 a blip because of "unusual circumstances", or is this evidence that the guy can't really hit LH very well and had a career year in 2019? Who knows? What we do know is that his OPS+ tells us that he's a below average hitter for a corner OF, who in MLB should be at or above .785-.800 year in, year out.

 

Don't get me wrong, Kepler is a fine player and I'm glad we have him long term. But let's not kid ourselves about what he is - he's a very good to excellent fielding corner OF who can be an average or slightly above CF in a pinch, who runs well, has power, but is overall a below average hitter for his position. He's not a great leadoff hitter and he's not going ot be able to replace Rosario in the middle of the order. The Twins are going to have to find someone else to do that job.And that's why some of us are concerned that Rosario was let go and are hoping that the plan is something other than a hope that a rookie will be able to repalce his production in the middle of the order. Kepler is not that guy. He should hit 6 or 7 after Sano, who should hit 5 or 6 depending on whether Cruz hits 3 or 4, assuming Cruz is back.I wonder about our batting order if Cruz isn't back. It could be ugly. 

 

You and the others you reference are focused on what they have been. The FO is far more interested in what they will be. I share that view. Those who can’t imagine why Kepler is an equivalent offensive player are basing this position on what happened over the entire course of their careers. In other words, the distant pass. That information is not the most indicative of what they will be going forward.

 

Neither player has ever sustained a high level of productivity. Kepler has had one great year. Was that year a break-out year? IDK. Rosario’s career has three distinct periods. By far his most productive period was the last half of 2017 through the first half of 2018. He produced just shy of half of his career WAR during that period.

 

Since the first half of 2018, Rosario’s wRC+ is 97/ Kepler’s is 114. Rosario’s OPS 760 / Kepler 811.Rosario has 51 HRs / Kepler 57. Kepler has also has trended up steadily improving his weakness which if LH pitching with the exception of 47 ABs in 2020. Perhaps this is wht Streamer projects a wRC+ of 105 for Rosario and 113 for Kepler.

 

IMO, it is very clear the league adjusted and Rosario has been unable to adapt to how the league pitches him now. Kepler has been trending up. Both players have over 1,000 ABs in the comparison above so we are talking about a large sample size. Is it possible Rosario will adapt? Sure. That does not change the fact that Kepler has been the better offensive player since the middle of 2018 when the league reacted to Rosario’s dominant play. It's not so much Kepler has gotten better as Rosario has been below average since then.If you disagree the current performance is a product of the league adjusting, you are welcome to that opinion, we will just have to agree to disagree.

 

I also believe that defense and cost has gotten lost in this debate. Consider the defensive contribution as well as cost and Kepler is a considerably more important asset than Rosario.

  • kenbuddha and wsnydes like this

#58 Dodecahedron

Dodecahedron

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 94 posts

Posted 07 December 2020 - 09:01 AM

 

Huh? The ‘87 champion Twins did exactly that. The ‘88 Twins got rid of an ‘expensive’ Tom Brunansky at age 27...and after a significantly better year than what Rosario just had. Happens all the time...and has everything to do with the overall roster and payroll and little to do with what the player can provide in absolute terms.

 

Brunansky was traded.


#59 ashbury

ashbury

    Twins fan for life!

  • Member
  • 26,142 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 07 December 2020 - 09:09 AM

Brunansky was traded.

Traded for the great Tommy Herr, who was traded for the illustrious Shane Rawley, who was granted free agency.

 

We might as well have non-tendered him. :)
 

Look back & be grateful, look ahead & be hopeful, look around & be helpful.


#60 Dodecahedron

Dodecahedron

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 94 posts

Posted 07 December 2020 - 10:25 AM

 

Traded for the great Tommy Herr, who was traded for the illustrious Shane Rawley, who was granted free agency.

 

We might as well have non-tendered him. :)
 

 

Such is the way of things with trades. There is risk involved. But he was traded, nonetheless.

 

This trade also happened mid-season. Brunansky was not cut from the team in December.

 

Plus, look at what Herr was paid and what Brunansky was paid. If the Twins made that trade to save money, they failed.