Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Rosario Placed on Outright Waiver

  • Please log in to reply
69 replies to this topic

#21 mike8791

mike8791

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 113 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 08:57 AM

Agree with posters who say this move is justifiable based on available OF prospects.But optioning Rosario most likely mandates the resigning of Cruz and the retaining of Sano.Without these two, the offense would be a serious weakness, unless Donaldson and Buxton contribute up to their potentials for an entire season.I, for one, remain sceptical of this happening.Nor do I see this organization springing for Springer, Ozuna, LeMahieu, or Brantley when next year's finances are so unknown.

 

Still a long way to go in the offseason so I remain hopeful that the FO will be able to improve this ballclub rather than fall backwards.Adding a bonafide closer, a strong OBP infielder, and another playoff-ready starter are necessary for improving this team's ability for an extended postseason run.

  • Vanimal46 likes this

#22 puckstopper1

puckstopper1

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 599 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 10:14 AM

This maybe the case with other teams - especially this offseason - but the Twins are potentially heading for a MAJOR turnover of their roster with Odorizzi, Hill, Bailey, Clippard, May, Romo, Gonzalez, Adrianza, Avila, Rosario, and Cruz all possibly departing.

 

Except for Bailey, all of these players played important roles this past season (Odo two years ago).

 

Yes - there are some internal candidates to fill some of the roles, but with only a few "minor" signing thus far, it will be very interesting to see how the rest of the offseason and next spring progresses with all these holes to fill.

  • tony&rodney likes this

That Twins 2nd baseman - #29 - he doesn't run, he "ca-rew-zes" - Earl Weaver


#23 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 10:50 AM

 

So a player, due to arbitration, becomes too expensive. Isn't the price based on performance? I guess you can't really say that Eddie isn't worth $10M if arbitration says he is. One thing about arbitration, there is no bias. It is true that Eddie has been the Twins best outfielder for the last few years. He's been way more productive than Buxton or Kepler. The issue is, the Twins have 3 cheaper options in Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker. If the Twins use the money they will be saving by letting Eddie go and using one of the trio of young prospects waiting in the wings for an upgrade elsewhere then this is the right move. If they don't then they may end up paying the price in lost production in the lineup. Can Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker put up the same numbers as Eddie did? If they can't someone else will have to make the next step to a higher level. Will it be Polanco or Buxton or Kepler or Sano? Who will it be? If they lose Cruz also there will be two massive holes in the lineup to fill. I hope they have a good plan.

 

Eddie probably was the best twins OFer over the past 5 years. Unfortunately, I don’t think that prospective accurately portrays present value. He produced 3.5 WAR the first half of 2018. He was fantastic during that stretch. Then, the league adjusted and Eddie has not been able to adapt to the changes opposing pitchers have made in how they pitch Eddie. Since then (7/31/18-Presennt) he has produced 2.1 WAR. Since the 2018 trade deadline Rosario has a wRC+ of 99. Kepler, Buxton, and even Cave all have a higher wRC+

 

War since 7/31/18

 

Max Kepler --- 6.3
Nelson Cruz --- 6.2
Jorge Polanco --- 5.7
Byron Buxton --- 3.9
Mitch Garver--- 3.8
Miguel Sano --- 3.4
Luis Arraez--- 2.8
Jake Cave --- 2.3
Eddie Rosario --- 2.1
Marwin Gonzalez --- 1.6 

 

Streamer projects 1.3 WAR for 2021. His OPS since the 2018 deadline is 774. Decent but not great. I would like to think all 3 of our top OF prospects are capable of at least matching Rosario performance over the past couple years in their first year. Perhaps not in terms of HRs but wRC+ and WAR. The $10M made available could very well be the difference in resigning Odorizzi or landing Walker / Kluber etc. This approach has the highest probability of improving the team and that's why Rosario was DFAed.

  • Mike Sixel, kenbuddha, wsnydes and 3 others like this

#24 spanman2

spanman2

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 302 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 11:11 AM

 

Baseball is a business, when you have cheap replacements you use them (and I believe that one of the three (Kirloff, Rooker, Laurach) will be better just maybe not this year.  

Eddie was not worth 10 million, so this was the end result, doubt he will be claimed.

all about the Benjamins
and his avg defensive ability
and mental lapses
on the lower side OBP

Certainly a fan favorite for the most part...less expensive options waiting in the wings.He will land somewhere.Hopefully not on the Southside.  

I WAS TOLD I WOULD NEVER MAKE IT BECAUSE I AM TOO SHORT. WELL, I'M STILL TOO SHORT. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR HEIGHT IS. IT'S WHAT'S IN YOUR HEART.

KIRBY PUCKETT

#25 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 10,230 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 11:24 AM

Best of luck to him wherever he lands

  • Mike Sixel and adorduan like this

#26 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 3,682 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 11:31 AM

Sacrifices are made in the name of payroll. Is it spent more wisely somewhere else? Pocketed? That is always the question. 

 

Sometimes you wonder how far out the team looks at players and how those actions happen in earlier off-seasons. Like what is the future outcome of Berrios or Buxton, for example.

 

We can feel sad that the Twins lose players that might have some value, minimal value of return of some prospect, or packaged for a real team need.

 

2020 was a horrendous season. It was not the year to trade off potential free agents that you feel you might not sign, otherwise the Twins probably would've dealt Eddie sooner rather than never and gave someone like Kirilloff an earlier chance. And May would've had some value in the greater mix.

 

Joel Thingvall
www.joelthingvall.com
 


#27 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 746 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 01:59 PM

 

Baseball is a business, when you have cheap replacements you use them (and I believe that one of the three (Kirloff, Rooker, Laurach) will be better just maybe not this year.  

Eddie was not worth 10 million, so this was the end result, doubt he will be claimed.

 

I agree. But only if you use the money saved to improve somewhere else. 

 

If you just pocket it, then that is being cheap and Pohlad-ish.

  • LA VIkes Fan likes this

#28 gbg

gbg

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 92 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 02:04 PM

Looks like every other team is being cheap and Pohlad-ish. Rosario passed through unclaimed.

I agree. But only if you use the money saved to improve somewhere else. 

 

If you just pocket it, then that is being cheap and Pohlad-ish.

 


#29 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 746 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 02:18 PM

 

Looks like every other team is being cheap and Pohlad-ish. Rosario passed through unclaimed.

 

You didn't read what I wrote did you?

 

I said if the money is just pocketed. It had nothing to do with how other teams view Rosario.

 

 


#30 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 1,875 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 02:31 PM

This decision is justifiable from a business perspective, less so from a baseball perspective. Is Eddie worth 10m for his average production over the last 3-4 years in MLB baseball in 2021? Definitely yes if you don't look at pandemic related possible changes, probably yes even with those. Will Kirrlloff/Rooker replace his production in 2021? There seem to be a lot of posters here who think they will, but history tells us they won't in their first full year in the bigs. I would bet the chances are not good for 2021 and let's not forget, neither one of these guys is great defensive OF. In fact, Rooker is a clear downgrade from Rosario in the field. Now, I think its fair to say that one of those 2 (or Larnach) will be ready to replace Rosario's offensive output by 2022 possibly or 2023 but its unlikely that will happen next year. Next year will be the usual good start, league adjusts so they slump, they adjust and get back going, league adjusts again, rinse/repeat kind of year.

 

The real reason to do this is to free up the 10m for somebody else, and NOT for Cruz. You sign him if he will take a I year plus option year deal at 10-13m AAV regardless of Rosario. What I'm now looking for is where that money goes. Losing Romo and May pays for whatever raises you have to give to Rogers and Wisler plus another decent reliever so it shouldn't go there. We've already freed up the $ for the BP.You can certainly make a good case that the 10m can now be used in some combination of keeping Odorizzi, signing a guy like Kluber or Gray if released, trading for a starter, signing a good FA starter, signing Brad Hand or Liam Hendricks, or signing a SS, moving Polanco to 2B and making Arraez a super utility. I would have kept Rosario but any of those options make sense to me. Simply rolling out the the same old lineup without Rosario (and possibly without Cruz) is not an acceptable result. That's a "give up on 2021 and rebuild from within on the fly" approach. We're too close to give up like that now. 

 

I kind of like the idea of signing Odo to a 3 year 39m kind of deal, and spending some money on a SS like Andrellton Simmons or Didi Gregorious. Make Polanco the everyday 2B and backup SS, and put Arraez in the role Marwan had. Arraez will get 400-500 ABS playing 2-3 days a week at 2B, 3B, LF, or even DH because he will get chunks playing either 2B or 3B when Donaldson has his inevitable 2-3 stints on the IL. It also give us a way to break Kirilloff and Rooker in with some bench time when they slump, gives rest to Arraez who already has knee problems, or he could even wind up as the everyday LF if the young guys crater. 

 

Bottom line, not a move I would make but it can be good for the team IF its in combination with improving elsewhere. Not a good move if its simply to reduce payroll. We'll soon see which it is.  

 

 

  • Battle ur tail off, Crackedfungo, tony&rodney and 1 other like this

#31 CBtwinsfan

CBtwinsfan

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 6 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 05:04 PM

I'd like to see them take that money, add some more and seriously go after Trevor B.Is that a possibility?

 

  • tony&rodney likes this

#32 tony&rodney

tony&rodney

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 351 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 05:54 PM

Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario all became regular outfielders together in the last five years. Buxton is my favorite player to watch, both defensively and at the plate. I love Kepler's smooth bat and his magic versus Trevor Bauer among his many other accomplishments. Despite Eddie Rosario being my least favorite of the Twins outfielders, he has absolutely been their most productive in those five years. Whether we take portions of years or discuss his future production, Rosario still has to be acknowledged for his body of work fro 2016-2020. I sure hope that next up can fill his shoes. We shall all see this coming summer. Personally, I wish him well and will tune in via mlb.com to watch him play baseball.


#33 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,450 posts

Posted 02 December 2020 - 10:22 PM

Lotta legitimate swagger just left the building.

 

I suppose he has the prospects to replace him, and that's smart baseball, but he is a gamer, and I will miss him. That outfield arm was good too.

  • SQUIRREL and Battle ur tail off like this

#34 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 08:51 AM

 

This decision is justifiable from a business perspective, less so from a baseball perspective. Is Eddie worth 10m for his average production over the last 3-4 years in MLB baseball in 2021? Definitely yes if you don't look at pandemic related possible changes, probably yes even with those. Will Kirrlloff/Rooker replace his production in 2021? There seem to be a lot of posters here who think they will, but history tells us they won't in their first full year in the bigs. I would bet the chances are not good for 2021 and let's not forget, neither one of these guys is great defensive OF. In fact, Rooker is a clear downgrade from Rosario in the field. Now, I think its fair to say that one of those 2 (or Larnach) will be ready to replace Rosario's offensive output by 2022 possibly or 2023 but its unlikely that will happen next year. Next year will be the usual good start, league adjusts so they slump, they adjust and get back going, league adjusts again, rinse/repeat kind of year.  

 

Supporters are clinging to Rosario’s production 3-5 years ago. I think the key difference in opinion is if you believe the drastic decline in OPS and wRC+ after his brilliant start to 2018 is a fluke or did the league adjust? If you believe it’s a fluke … no doubt the Twins should have resigned him. If you believe the league adjusted … Rosario’s decline indicates an inability to counter the adjustments made by the league.

 

Should we make personnel decisions on what the player did in the distant past or more recent productivity? Should we make roster decisions based on past performance or what we believe to be future performance? Every team in MLB passed on the opportunity to pick him up. That quite telling of how teams see his value and we will get an even better valuation in free agency.

 

Why did every team in MLB pass? They obviously don’t see Rosario in the same lights as his supporters here. IMO, they see a player who was fantastic for a relatively short period. In Rosario’s case the last ½ of 2017 and the 1st half of 2018 when he produced 44% of his career WAR in 23% of his career Games Played. His numbers are slightly below average for the other 77% of his career

 

2015 through the 1st half of 2017.

 

ABs 1090
WAR 4.2
wRC+ 97
OPS 750

 

2nd half of 2017 through the 2018 trade deadline (7/31/18)

 

ABs 664
WAR 5.0
wRC+ 135
OPS 895

 

8/1/18-present

 

ABs 1076
WAR 2.2
wRC+ 97
OPS 761

 

I think a lot of fans want to keep Rosario because he was phenomenal for a short period of time. That would be fine if there was good reason to believe he will perform closer to the 23% of his career when he was great than the 77% when he was not but that is awfully optimistic. Apparently, every team in MLB thinks the same.

  • wsnydes likes this

#35 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 1,875 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 10:26 AM

Interesting analysis on Rosario. Same questions can be raised about Kepler. Is he the hitter from 2019 (very good, but perhaps an outlier or recency bias), or is he the hitter from 2017, 2019, and 2020 (below average for a corner OF). The FO may have decided that Kepler is what he was in 2019, or somethiung close to that, and Rosario is what he was in the second half of 2019 and 2020. Add in the obvious differnce on defense and you keep Kepler over Rosario. Or it may just be as simple as asking what's the big difference between the two? Kepler - signed through 2023 at an AAV of $7m vs. Rosario - one year arb deal at $9-10M. Kepler took the team friendly deal. Rosario did not, assuming one was offered.

 

It will be interesting to see where Eddie winds up and at what price. MLB passed on him at one year arb salary, although the weird circumstances of 2020 may have a lot to do with that. As they say, timing is everything in life. Will it be a one year "pillow" contract or a 2-3 year deal? Would he come back to the Twins for something like Kepler is getting - 3 years at an AAV at $7-8m?He'll be a starting LF somewhere on Opening Day 2021.My guess is in Chicago with the Cubs or White Sox, but I think the Twins might stay in play at the right price. This offseason may be fascinating to watch because there are a lot of guys out there like Rosario - good but flawed. Could be a loing, tough winter for those guys.  


#36 Dodecahedron

Dodecahedron

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 94 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 11:17 AM

 

Supporters are clinging to Rosario’s production 3-5 years ago. 

 

The Rosario naysayers today are the same people who did not like him 3-5 years ago.

For whatever reason, Rosario has always been divisive in the community.

 

Ask yourself this: If you are old enough to remember, could you see the late 80s championship Twins teams getting rid of a player like a 29-year old Rosario to avoid paying him a mediocre wage? Nevermind that the 90s -10s teams would not keep him.

 

  • Crackedfungo likes this

#37 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 11:22 AM

 

The Rosario naysayers today are the same people who did not like him 3-5 years ago.

For whatever reason, Rosario has always been divisive in the community.

 

Ask yourself this: If you are old enough to remember, could you see the late 80s championship Twins teams getting rid of a player like a 29-year old Rosario to avoid paying him a mediocre wage? Nevermind that the 90s and 10s teams wouldn't keep him.

 

I am not sure if they are the same people (in general) that did not like him 3-5 years ago. However, I was a big fan starting his last year in AAA. I saw him play in the AFL Championship game and he was extremely impressive. He was one of my favorite players when he came up. My wife was a big fan too. However, I remember telling her at some point that ML pitchers were going to abuse him if he did not improve his plate discipline.


#38 rv78

rv78

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 307 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 01:05 PM

 

Sorry, but Rosario has not been the Twins best outfielder. He is a slightly above average corner outfielder. In 3 of the last 4 years both Buxton and Kepler had higher WAR than Rosario did despite Buxton playing in fewer games. Kiriloff can replace Rosario's numbers or exceed them if he stays on the field. Rooker would be a defensive downgrade even from Rosie if he played every day. I'm sure they'll go with Kiriloff. 

 

WAR pHoohy. I stand with my statement of Rosario being better than Buxton or Kepler.

When Buxton and Kepler put up the same numbers Rosario did over the last 4 years then I'll believe they are better. Until then you are blowing smoke up my you know what with your WAR theory!

Rosario: 94 HR's, 306RBI's, Career BA of .277

Buxton: 39 HR's, 128 RBI's, Career BA of .238

Kepler: 84 HR's, 241 RBI's, Career BA of .237

 

Career BA is a good comparison. Kepler has played 1 less season than Buxton and Rosario so it's not a big difference maker.

  • Crackedfungo likes this

#39 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,416 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 02:06 PM

 

Interesting analysis on Rosario. Same questions can be raised about Kepler. Is he the hitter from 2019 (very good, but perhaps an outlier or recency bias), or is he the hitter from 2017, 2019, and 2020 (below average for a corner OF). The FO may have decided that Kepler is what he was in 2019, or somethiung close to that, and Rosario is what he was in the second half of 2019 and 2020. Add in the obvious differnce on defense and you keep Kepler over Rosario. Or it may just be as simple as asking what's the big difference between the two? Kepler - signed through 2023 at an AAV of $7m vs. Rosario - one year arb deal at $9-10M. Kepler took the team friendly deal. Rosario did not, assuming one was offered.

 

It will be interesting to see where Eddie winds up and at what price. MLB passed on him at one year arb salary, although the weird circumstances of 2020 may have a lot to do with that. As they say, timing is everything in life. Will it be a one year "pillow" contract or a 2-3 year deal? Would he come back to the Twins for something like Kepler is getting - 3 years at an AAV at $7-8m?He'll be a starting LF somewhere on Opening Day 2021.My guess is in Chicago with the Cubs or White Sox, but I think the Twins might stay in play at the right price. This offseason may be fascinating to watch because there are a lot of guys out there like Rosario - good but flawed. Could be a loing, tough winter for those guys.  

 

I agree. However, 2020 was so weird and the production of many great players was off considerably. Is Kepler going to be the 2019 version (great), the 2018 version (average) or the 2017 version (not so good)? This might be an oversimplification but he improved against LH pitching in 2018 and was very good against LH pitching in 2019.

 

He is 1 ½ years younger than Rosario and in the heart of his prime. His ability to back-up CF is also quite important given Buxton is prone to injury.Of course, the relative success of Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker, and I guess Celestino might also plays into Kepler’s future with the club. We could add where Lewis ends up playing to that list because he could end up in CF.

 

The good news is Kepler is inexpensive for the next couple years and reasonable for the next two after. The Twins are positioned to let these scenarios play out. I am hoping we see the Kepler of 2019 going forward and Larnach / Kirilloff are both studs. Would love to have that problem!


#40 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 746 posts

Posted 03 December 2020 - 03:47 PM

I will say this about Rosario. He has an edge. He will be a great buy low opportunity for someone. He will not forget the way he is being treated by MLB right now. My guess is the guy gets in the gym and works and works and has another great year next year. 

 

Obviously, this is just a guess. But this guy has heart and soul. Now you are handing it(the team) over to a guy like Buxton that has none of that. He cracks his finger nail and he will sit out for a dang playoff series. Or a guy like Sano that could be Miguel Cabrera in his prime, but likes cheeseburgers and the couch too much. 

 

That said, as this team is constructed, this is probably the right move. We just have so many young kids that play his position and can likely do it close to as well(possibly better) for much cheaper.