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Blake Snell a trade target or not

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#21 specialiststeve

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Posted 27 November 2020 - 10:47 PM

This is how the Rays stay great .... sell high.... Teams overpay and they continue to win with low cost players... Love Snell but pass.


#22 Nine of twelve

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 06:05 AM

 

Keep in mind that this is Tampa Bay we are discussing. If they agree to trade Snell to us it's likely that we are making an unfavorable trade.

 

 

I agree they are smartly run and a very shrewd team in their dealings. But the Odorizzi deal was very cheap on the Twins side of things and turned out very well. It could turn out even better if Oddo is brought back on a decent deal for both sides.

But, Snell is still cheap for 2021 and unless they are blown away, I don't see the Rays moving him until next off-season anyway.

I thought about that when I made this post. Two things: One, Odorizzi was not a Cy Young winner, and, two, I would guess that Odorizzi had strongly signaled to Tampa Bay that he would leave as a free agent at his earliest opportunity. So they took the first satisfactory offer. Snell will generate far more interest and I'm certain the price will be much higher.

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#23 tony&rodney

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 07:19 AM

The Twins are not parting with any of their top six prospects for Blake Snell. They may offer combinations of their other prospects and maybe Cave and/or Garver, but a trade with Tampa Bay seems unlikely. Snell does not meet the near 200 innings per year mark needed from a starting pitcher that would induce a club to part with their top prospects. Several years ago, Greinke and Verlander were solid bets. Today, Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo, and Yu Darvish among a few others look good. Trevor Bauer is a free agent. The problem is availability and dollars.


#24 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 08:33 AM

The rays just non-tendered Choi, their 1B-Man.Not sure what their plan is for First Base.Offer Sano in a package for Snell.If they say no, fine, move on to other targets.I'd rather have Kiriloff/Rooker playing 1B than Sano.The shortcomings of Snell were laid out clearly.He's very talented but there is some risk.

The Rays don’t pay for 1B. They get a guy like Morrison for nothing on a cheap salary and he produces but they let him go when he gets more expensive I. Spite of a monster year. They get a guy like Cron for little and he produces for a few years and when he hits arbitration and a salary of 5-6 million they replace him with Choi. It is time to replace Choi with another pre-arb 1B. They aren’t going to pay for 1B and they certainly aren’t going to pay twice (the cost of his contract and the value of Snell). If they don’t already have a lost cost 1B they will find one without needing to trade off anything valuable.

 

The Twins don’t need to make that call. They can move on.

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#25 The Wise One

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 02:12 PM

 

The Twins are not parting with any of their top six prospects for Blake Snell. They may offer combinations of their other prospects and maybe Cave and/or Garver, but a trade with Tampa Bay seems unlikely. Snell does not meet the near 200 innings per year mark needed from a starting pitcher that would induce a club to part with their top prospects. Several years ago, Greinke and Verlander were solid bets. Today, Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo, and Yu Darvish among a few others look good. Trevor Bauer is a free agent. The problem is availability and dollars.

In the last few years the only fleece trade was the Archer trade. Anybody can try to correct my notion but I do not see top multiple prospects being moved in the last few years. Prospects that have lost their luster like those in the Paxton trade get moved. Player like Glasnow who had not anned out as expected get moved. 

 

Any trades of the prospects mentioned in this article get moved it would signify the front office not liking their potential and there is still someone who does.

 

Your trade list has one flaw. The why question. Why would you trade for Lynn when he did not work out here before. Why wouldyou trade for the back end of Darvish's career especially once he played you for a contract? Lastly, why would the teams trade the other players unless it is a significant overpay that the Twins do not have the prospects for.

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#26 tony&rodney

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 04:08 PM

Fair question - why? I don't think Lynn would be opposed to pitching for the Twins. He was pretty bitter at being ignored (collusion?) and signed late and never got into a groove. He is reasonable in price, steady, and the Rangers would likely part with a fair offer. Darvish is still tough but a real stretch and would have to come easy; the Cubs have problems. The others are not likely to be available, but I was searching for possibilities. The Twins need to ask, at least. The likely route is an Odorizzi deal or Kluber/Hill. There are other ideas that Falvine must have that we are not privy to, but I agree that the Twins are not going to send their top prospects off in a trade. 


#27 darin617

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 04:22 PM

I would be careful trading for stars from Tampa. They seem to know the perfect time to trade them.

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#28 Doctor Gast

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Posted 29 November 2020 - 08:15 AM

Like what has been well statedthat TBis very shrewd. They won`t trade Snell unless they find someone who will give them a ridiculous offer.

I'd like to offer my opinion about the Kevin Cash/ Snell situation.

 KevinCash is a great coach, he has had a few pitchers that pitched 200 innings or close to it, even in '18 Snell averaged a tad under 6 innings/ game which means he pitched quite a few games w/ 6+ innings. It takes a very rare breed of pitcher to face a line up the 3rd time around, especially in a top leverage situation. 2020 Cash managed TB to a fantastic season & the pitchers flourished under him. 

In the 2020 WS, I believe Cash made the right call by pulling Snell, you have to go w/ the strategy that has gotten you there, you`ve got the best BP to back you up. Cash didn't lose game, the BP showed that they aren`tsuper human. Let`s say Cash would leave Snell inuntil he got into trouble, odds are that he wouldbe very quickly. And instead the BP entering w/ a clean slate they come in w/ inherited runners OB w/ 0 outs. The result would be more disastrous w/ Snell being the loser & the goat & Snell's value would be deflated rather than inflated


#29 dex8425

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 09:21 AM

If the Rays want to save money, why not offer Berrios for Snell? They wouldn't do it straight up, but if the Twins threw in salary relief or one of Astudillo, Celestino, Cavaco or Gabriel Maciel?

 

Twins get 3 years of a SP instead of 2. Twins get higher upside and take on way more risk. Not sure I would even do that, since Berrios is a more proven commodity. Snell could be a trainwreck or he could be, well, he won a Cy Young. 


#30 cmoss84

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 11:36 AM

Guess I am in the minority here, as I would ship a nice package for Snell. I am tired of losing in the post-season. Aces are hard to come by-he has a very good chance of being that the next 3 years. 

 

You would get him in his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, at 10.5, 12.5, and 16. He has been good/not great the last 2 years, so this is not exactly TB selling at the highest point. Would I give up the farm? No. But a good package. 

 

Maeda-Snell-Berrios-Pineda

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#31 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 02:09 PM

 

Fair question - why? I don't think Lynn would be opposed to pitching for the Twins. He was pretty bitter at being ignored (collusion?) and signed late and never got into a groove. He is reasonable in price, steady, and the Rangers would likely part with a fair offer. Darvish is still tough but a real stretch and would have to come easy; the Cubs have problems. The others are not likely to be available, but I was searching for possibilities. The Twins need to ask, at least. The likely route is an Odorizzi deal or Kluber/Hill. There are other ideas that Falvine must have that we are not privy to, but I agree that the Twins are not going to send their top prospects off in a trade. 

 

Nor should they for that gaggle of names mentioned above. None of them inspire me in the least. If you are going to be sending off top prospects, it needs to be for someone in their 20s or 30-31 at most. A guy like Lance Lynn will bust very soon, I'd expect it right away next year, he was never great beforehand and had one good season. Heck look what he did here, he was terrible and I wouldn't expect anything different than that again. 

 

 


#32 dex8425

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 04:24 PM

 

Guess I am in the minority here, as I would ship a nice package for Snell. I am tired of losing in the post-season. Aces are hard to come by-he has a very good chance of being that the next 3 years. 

 

You would get him in his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, at 10.5, 12.5, and 16. He has been good/not great the last 2 years, so this is not exactly TB selling at the highest point. Would I give up the farm? No. But a good package. 

 

Maeda-Snell-Berrios-Pineda

Would you trade Berrios for Snell, straight up? Not sure either team would do that but it's intriguing. Twins get 3 years of starting pitching instead of 2. Berrios is looking like he won't sign an extension. Rays save money. Twins get upside and take on risk. 


#33 tony&rodney

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 04:43 PM

 

Nor should they for that gaggle of names mentioned above. None of them inspire me in the least. If you are going to be sending off top prospects, it needs to be for someone in their 20s or 30-31 at most. A guy like Lance Lynn will bust very soon, I'd expect it right away next year, he was never great beforehand and had one good season. Heck look what he did here, he was terrible and I wouldn't expect anything different than that again. 

Wait. You must have misunderstood something concerning my interest in Lance Lynn. I have been very clear that the Twins should NOT be trading their top six prospects (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, or Jeffers) for anyone other than a total ace that is controlled for years and these are not available at any rate. The Twins should be interested in Lynn and others for their other desirable prospects and there are teams willing to build for the future. The easy call is that the Twins have a window now and this offseason presents some palatable options for the Twins. The possibilities for signing free agents and trades is desirable for building a winning season and all options to improve the team should be examined.


#34 cmoss84

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 09:51 PM

Would you trade Berrios for Snell, straight up? Not sure either team would do that but it's intriguing. Twins get 3 years of starting pitching instead of 2. Berrios is looking like he won't sign an extension. Rays save money. Twins get upside and take on risk.


I would. But like you mentioned...I doubt either team would do it. Interesting though!

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#35 h2oface

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 11:20 AM

 

In the 2020 WS, I believe Cash made the right call by pulling Snell, you have to go w/ the strategy that has gotten you there, you`ve got the best BP to back you up. Cash didn't lose game, the BP showed that they aren`tsuper human. Let`s say Cash would leave Snell inuntil he got into trouble, odds are that he wouldbe very quickly. And instead the BP entering w/ a clean slate they come in w/ inherited runners OB w/ 0 outs. The result would be more disastrous w/ Snell being the loser & the goat & Snell's value would be deflated rather than inflated

 

That "call" is an easy one for me. Horribly wrong. Easy because that was the outcome and fact. Not a supposition. If you ignore the moment for the "what got you here", you put someone like Perkins in to blow games when you know he is finished. What we don't know is what Snell, on a roll and thriving, would have done. If one lives on paper the whole time, they will find themselves losing games in the world series that are outliers to the whole pencil pushing game. Do you really think that there was any consideration about Snell's future value in that decision?

 

Snell was horrible most the short 2020 season, though. Long term? I hope they don't go for him. And the last thing this team needs a mopey Lynn around again.


#36 mike8791

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 01:35 PM

Lots of great arguments on both sides, but if the Twins are going to really vault into the top tier of teams, acquiring a #1 starter like Snell is exactly what they should be exploring now.Relying on Maeda to duplicate last season may be a stretch over a regular 162 game season and even if he repeats 2020 performance, what's wrong with having a one-two punch like Maeda and Snell in a short playoff series?Does anyone think an erratic Berrios can be trusted?

Resign Odo and your rotation becomes top 3 caliber!!

 

Of course, the big question is who to give up?No, to giving up 3 top prospects, but there are alternatives.Build a package around a ML regular(Sano or Garvey), one of the three OF prospects and even an additional pitching prospect desired by TB.If TB, interested, Sano would be the regular to offer, given his HR or nothing approach, but now that Rosey is gone, deletion of Sano in the lineup could be more than this offense could bear, even assuming they resign Cruz. If Sano is key to the deal, then a replacement FA would be needed.My preference is Lamehieu to improve the team's OBP, but Rooker might be more than adequate, too. Garver would be expendable, but doubt TB sees him as a valuable piece here.The Twins have a surplus of OF prospects.Either Larnach or Kirillof should adequately replace Rosario, assuming TB insists on one of the two.Balazovic or Duran most likely would be the third piece, althoughEnlow or Colina might suffice.

 

If the Twins add a couple proven bullpen pieces and resign Cruz, this is a very formidable team; however, team success likely would still greatly depend more on Donaldson and Buxton playing nearly a full season at their career averages.

 

 

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#37 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 03:37 PM

 

Wait. You must have misunderstood something concerning my interest in Lance Lynn. I have been very clear that the Twins should NOT be trading their top six prospects (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, or Jeffers) for anyone other than a total ace that is controlled for years and these are not available at any rate. The Twins should be interested in Lynn and others for their other desirable prospects and there are teams willing to build for the future. The easy call is that the Twins have a window now and this offseason presents some palatable options for the Twins. The possibilities for signing free agents and trades is desirable for building a winning season and all options to improve the team should be examined.

 

Myself, I would not trade anyone that has a pulse for Lance Lynn. He will flop next year, take that one to the bank. 

 


#38 Lonestar

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 04:43 PM

Two thoughts:
1. Many underestimate the acquisition cost of a front-line starter.
2. Front-line starters are cheaper to acquire in the off-season than they are at the deadline.

Here's a pretty good website for analyzing trade value:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Both teams would like to give up less surplus value than they receive in return in the off-season.
Here’s the surplus value for some “front-line” starters available according to that website. YMMV

$52.4M  Blake Snell
$36.4M  Joe Musgrove
$35.9M  Sonny Gray
$20.1M  Yu Darvish
$15.1M  Lance Lynn

 

In order to obtain Snell, the Twins would have to give up Larnach ($30.0M), Balazovic ($17.1M) and Wallner ($6.0M). At least. The Rays would prefer Larnach and Jeffers ($28.0M). At least.

 


#39 ashbury

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 07:23 PM

 

Two thoughts:
1. Many underestimate the acquisition cost of a front-line starter.
2. Front-line starters are cheaper to acquire in the off-season than they are at the deadline.

Here's a pretty good website for analyzing trade value:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Both teams would like to give up less surplus value than they receive in return in the off-season.
Here’s the surplus value for some “front-line” starters available according to that website. YMMV

$52.4M  Blake Snell
$36.4M  Joe Musgrove
$35.9M  Sonny Gray
$20.1M  Yu Darvish
$15.1M  Lance Lynn

 

In order to obtain Snell, the Twins would have to give up Larnach ($30.0M), Balazovic ($17.1M) and Wallner ($6.0M). At least. The Rays would prefer Larnach and Jeffers ($28.0M). At least.

I love the site, but that trade simulator also gives a thumbs-up to Arraez/Gordon/Smeltzer for Snell, so I take anything I see there with a grain of salt.
 

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#40 dex8425

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Posted 04 December 2020 - 12:29 PM

 

Lots of great arguments on both sides, but if the Twins are going to really vault into the top tier of teams, acquiring a #1 starter like Snell is exactly what they should be exploring now.Relying on Maeda to duplicate last season may be a stretch over a regular 162 game season and even if he repeats 2020 performance, what's wrong with having a one-two punch like Maeda and Snell in a short playoff series?Does anyone think an erratic Berrios can be trusted?

Resign Odo and your rotation becomes top 3 caliber!!

 

Of course, the big question is who to give up?No, to giving up 3 top prospects, but there are alternatives.Build a package around a ML regular(Sano or Garvey), one of the three OF prospects and even an additional pitching prospect desired by TB.If TB, interested, Sano would be the regular to offer, given his HR or nothing approach, but now that Rosey is gone, deletion of Sano in the lineup could be more than this offense could bear, even assuming they resign Cruz. If Sano is key to the deal, then a replacement FA would be needed.My preference is Lamehieu to improve the team's OBP, but Rooker might be more than adequate, too. Garver would be expendable, but doubt TB sees him as a valuable piece here.The Twins have a surplus of OF prospects.Either Larnach or Kirillof should adequately replace Rosario, assuming TB insists on one of the two.Balazovic or Duran most likely would be the third piece, althoughEnlow or Colina might suffice.

 

If the Twins add a couple proven bullpen pieces and resign Cruz, this is a very formidable team; however, team success likely would still greatly depend more on Donaldson and Buxton playing nearly a full season at their career averages.

Sano has negative trade value. Would you do Garver, Larnach and Duran or Balazovic? Because I'm sure the Rays do that deal.