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Is Cruz a MUST signing? And what if he doesn't fit?

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#21 tony&rodney

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Posted 28 November 2020 - 10:48 AM

This seems like a debate that should be resolved next Wednesday. Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, and Donaldson plus Cruz would push the budget higher than many here are expecting for next year. Most seem to feel that Garver and Sano are not likely to bring back a substantial contribution. The odds of trading Kepler or Buxton seems remote. The Twins need to add a decent starter and reliever as well as consider who would play the utility role for next season. Unless the Twins push their dollars to $140+, some shuffling of roster spots will happen. I agree that it is not a sound decision to lose both Rosario and Cruz. Unless Sano or some others are moved, there might not be room for Cruz. As much as I want Cruz in the cleanup hole again, the addition of a SP of weight (Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, other) and a RP that is noteworthy (Liam Hendriks) are crucial to matching up with CWS and others next summer. Having no idea which direction this will take, I am going with Eddie Rosario. From there I expect some trades and a significant free agent addition. 

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#22 High heat

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Posted 29 November 2020 - 12:39 PM

If there is no DH in NL in 2021 then there are only 3 teams for Cruz (twins white Sox and blue jays). He won’t get a 2 year deal in that case and good chance he is back. If NL has a DH all bets are off and guessing someone will over pay
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#23 The Wise One

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Posted 29 November 2020 - 06:34 PM

 

If there is no DH in NL in 2021 then there are only 3 teams for Cruz (twins white Sox and blue jays). He won’t get a 2 year deal in that case and good chance he is back. If NL has a DH all bets are off and guessing someone will over pay

Why would the owners vote to spend more money after a year they lost a boatload? A DH would replace a utility player at the end of the bench. Another starting position player salary versus a bench salary is a little bit of a difference on the bottom line for most of the teams.The NL teams are not going to just give that money away. They want something back. Anything the union gives up would not just benefit the NL teams, but all of baseball. For the DH to go through the union would have to give up more than it will get.No one should be worrying about a DH in the NL

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#24 amjgt

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Posted 30 November 2020 - 10:12 AM

Here's the thing about waiting for the NL decision....

 

Assuming it eventually gets done with a commissioner order

Yes, it will help his 2021 value because there are a lot more teams who would be interested.

 

BUT

 

It likely will not help him in terms of getting a 2nd year tacked on because no NL team is going to give a guaranteed 2nd year when they don't know if the NL will have a DH in 2022. 

 

The reason the commish would do it via 1 year order is that so making it permanent can be one of their bargaining chips when the new CBA gets bargained... after the 2021 season 

 

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#25 Dodecahedron

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Posted 30 November 2020 - 01:22 PM

 

There is no question Cruz is a short-term signing, whether it be 1yr, or 2yrs, or some sort of 1 and option, which is what I suspect will happen if he's brought back.

I do think the FO is serious about contending and keeping their contention window open. And with what is in hand and coming up, there is and should be a lot of optimism. But regardless of any opinion on the finances of MLB, there is an unknown situation right now regarding revenue/losses/2021 projections. I don't think the Twins would bring Cruz back for the sake of PR.

Personally, while a proponent of the DH, unless you have a special bat for that spot, I have always been in favor of a deep roster and a rotation at that spot. The bite is the Twins find themselves in a sticky situation as Cruz IS/HAS BEEN that kind of bat. And I believe he has one more really good season left in him, all the more because 2020 was short. But at the same time, we have some SERIOUS potential in Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker to fill spots/roles. But to bank on them so early, and remove, potentially, BOTH Rosario AND Cruz in the same off season is frightening.

 

I agree, the Twins will move forward with contending this year. But the Twins should also be honest in this. They will need to spend a bit more money than just on Cruz. I don't think the status quo will be enough, especially considering some pieces are likely to leave this offseason. 

 

If the Twins are honest with themselves about competing this year, yes get Cruz and spend the other necessary money. If not, don't just sign Cruz and think it will be enough.

 

We know the Twins enough to know that the latter scenario is the most likely one.


#26 DocBauer

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Posted 30 November 2020 - 07:31 PM

Why would the owners vote to spend more money after a year they lost a boatload? A DH would replace a utility player at the end of the bench. Another starting position player salary versus a bench salary is a little bit of a difference on the bottom line for most of the teams.The NL teams are not going to just give that money away. They want something back. Anything the union gives up would not just benefit the NL teams, but all of baseball. For the DH to go through the union would have to give up more than it will get.No one should be worrying about a DH in the NL


I tend to agree.

We all know there was a universal DH last season. And it made perfect sense for the way the 2020 divisions were laid out/played. And while there are covid situations to be resolved for 2021...including teams like Toronto that can't play home games actually home for NOW...there is at least tentative hope for vaccines, lowering of numbers, time, etc, and MLB will have something more akin to a "normal" 162 game season, or approximate, with fans at some point. Under those hopes/conditions, the league-wide acceptance of the DH would almost certainly be part of the next CBA.

Now, if the season suddenly becomes more compressed and involves more inter-league games, then the powers-that-be could arbitrarily add the universal DH again. To Cruz's detremit, such a sweeping move probably wouldn't take place until late January at the earliest, IMO. That puts him waiting awfully late in the process of hope for additional bidders for his services. Additionally, what if most rosters are already budgeted and set by that time?

Right or wrong, I think he's going to have to expect 1 league and limited suitors as not everyone has a need at DH, or a want to invest in one as they are re-building.
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#27 amjgt

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Posted 01 December 2020 - 11:40 AM

It's tough to do, but if we divorce ourselves from the knowledge of what Cruz did for MN the last 2 years, I feel like almost nobody would be calling for us to sign a high priced bat (especially not a DH).

 

We'd be saying stuff like "having a guy locked in at DH kills our flexibility" and "that money can be better spent on contract extensions and pitching"

 

I'm firmly in the "Sign Bauer and figure the rest out with low cost FA and internal league minimum guys" camp. Part of that is because i feel like it's inevitable that we will be back to an 8 teams per league playoff format. Assuming that's the case, I like the strategy of signing high end SP and using the regular season as more of a testing ground for the young guys like Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker. Having Cruz a) would kill the budget for signing Bauer and b.) stifle a lot of that "testing" of players in the regular season.

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#28 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 01 December 2020 - 02:28 PM

 

Here's the thing about waiting for the NL decision....

 

Assuming it eventually gets done with a commissioner order

Yes, it will help his 2021 value because there are a lot more teams who would be interested.

 

BUT

 

It likely will not help him in terms of getting a 2nd year tacked on because no NL team is going to give a guaranteed 2nd year when they don't know if the NL will have a DH in 2022. 

 

The reason the commish would do it via 1 year order is that so making it permanent can be one of their bargaining chips when the new CBA gets bargained... after the 2021 season 

 

He will get a 2-year deal or sign a high dollar 1-year deal and it will not be here. You can take that to the bank. Not everyone is MN tight. They will sign him for 2 knowing only one year he will be effective and can pinch hit for a season if not productive. 

Also, it's my feeling that Cruz is done getting walloped in the playoffs and knows this team's chances at a ring aren't very good. 


#29 CBtwinsfan

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 05:09 PM

Do we say no to Rosario and Cruz, take that money, go after Trevor Bauer then move Sano to DH with the combination of the upcoming threesome between left field and 1st base, 

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#30 tony&rodney

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Posted 02 December 2020 - 06:00 PM

Interesting ideas being floated about bloated playoff schedules and the unintended consequences of that, such as focusing on a stocking up for a post-season as opposed to directing energies toward a division title. In such case, yes, let's grab Trevor Bauer. *&ck the cost.


#31 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 03:55 PM

 

Do we say no to Rosario and Cruz, take that money, go after Trevor Bauer then move Sano to DH with the combination of the upcoming threesome between left field and 1st base, 

 

Curious why they would go after Trevor Bauer now? You would be buying HIGH on him right now. They had a chance to trade for him for almost nothing and didn't do so when an Ace was needed. Now we are going to overpay in free agency?

I honestly doubt this will happen. Also, let's remember, Bauer has a pain at times and had a GREAT year last year, but over his career has been more of a #2-3 type guy. 

 

I think if this front office has taught us anything is that when it comes to pitching, they go after diamonds in the rough. Guys like Maeda who no one though could have the year he just had. 

 

They will also be gunshy IMO, when they just got done taking a chance for big money on a big name and getting almost zero in return for it last year. I think if anything, you will see them resign Odo and make a trade or pickup on someone that hasn't been spectacular, but is younger in age and has a "chance". 

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#32 prouster

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 05:24 PM

I’d sure love to have Cruz back. If that doesn’t work out, Kyle Schwarber could be a nice alternative on a one year deal.

#33 Major League Ready

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 05:56 PM

[attachment=16982:Twins 2021.I just updated my plan to reflect the arbitration agreements and I made some changes including going with Schwarber.

 

 

 

 

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#34 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 06:16 PM

Interesting roster, but you forgot Kiriloff. They brought him up for a playoff game and Rooker stinks in the field so he can't be the everyday repalcement for Rosario. You have to assume that Kiriloff opens in LF unless they sign a FA. In any event, he will be on the opening day roster. I could see that roster less La Stella or Profar, add Adrellton Simmons at the predicted 2 years, $17m or $8.5 per year. You now don't need Adrianza, because Polanco is the 2b, backs up at SS, and Arraez is the super utility.Add Kiriloff at 555k and the salaries go down 500k or essentially match. 

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#35 Major League Ready

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Posted 03 December 2020 - 07:28 PM

 

Interesting roster, but you forgot Kiriloff. They brought him up for a playoff game and Rooker stinks in the field so he can't be the everyday repalcement for Rosario. You have to assume that Kiriloff opens in LF unless they sign a FA. In any event, he will be on the opening day roster. I could see that roster less La Stella or Profar, add Adrellton Simmons at the predicted 2 years, $17m or $8.5 per year. You now don't need Adrianza, because Polanco is the 2b, backs up at SS, and Arraez is the super utility.Add Kiriloff at 555k and the salaries go down 500k or essentially match. 

 

I thought about the Simmons scenario and it makes sense. Would have no problem with it.

 

I did not forget Kirilloff. Rooker is the most proven and had already been promoted. Yes, Kirilloff was added for a game but neither Kirilloff or Larnach have proven they are ready. I would add the team is not going to blow a year of control to have him for an extra 6 weeks this year. They could also play Schwaber in this plan until Kirilloff or Larnach proves ready. That would be incompetence and they are not incompetent.


#36 Doctor Gast

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Posted 04 December 2020 - 07:34 AM

We can look at the stats & try to justify or not about signing Cruz. But we need also to look at the intangibles, which is his leadership, example of discipline, mentorship & club house presence. In '17 the FO gave up on the Twins & traded away the core but they came back & qualifiedfor the PS. In '18 they thought they had a shot to progress in the PS but they tanked. What was the difference? Tori Hunter! Although he didn't have the stats that showed he contributed but his leadership & clubhouse presence was invaluable.

Cruz has been that morale compass for the Twins in '19 & '20. He`s been that leader on the field, dug out, clubhouse & off the field. At this stage of his career he wants some security which is understandable. W/ a 2 yr. deal he can pad his stats & secure his income for himself & his charities. I think if we offer him a 2yr. agreeable guaranteed salary w/ a lot of incentives & a job at assistant hitting/ 1B coach when he retires. That`s a win/ win/ win, Cruz has his future guaranteed, Twins has his services & the Twins have their Cruz. What do you say!

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#37 ashbury

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Posted 04 December 2020 - 10:02 AM

We can look at the stats & try to justify or not about signing Cruz. But we need also to look at the intangibles, which is his leadership, example of discipline, mentorship & club house presence. In '17 the FO gave up on the Twins & traded away the core but they came back & qualifiedfor the PS. In '18 they thought they had a shot to progress in the PS but they tanked. What was the difference? Tori Hunter! Although he didn't have the stats that showed he contributed but his leadership & clubhouse presence was invaluable.

Torii retired after 2015. That's some residual clubhouse presence he left behind. :)
 

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#38 Doctor Gast

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Posted 04 December 2020 - 11:00 AM

 

Torii retired after 2015. That's some residual clubhouse presence he left behind. :)
 

Thanks Ash! I appreciate your correction, in my head I believed that Tori was around in '17. I stand corrected. '15 we didn't go to the PS but we had a better season than expected & the year he left we lost 103 games :)   

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#39 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 05 December 2020 - 11:03 AM

I've enjoyed reading this thread.I'd love to see Cruz come back on a 1 year deal, but I'm intrigued by the idea of taking that money and spending it on the bench and the bullpen.I've been playing around with it and I really like a roster like this.It provides a lot more flexibility and I think this bullpen could be very good.

 

C Mitch Garver 1.9M

C Ryan Jeffers 0.6M

1B Miguel Sańo 11M

2B Luis Arráez 0.6M

SS Jorge Polanco 4.33M

LF Alex Kiriloff 0.6M

CF Byron Buxton 5.1M

RF Max Kepler 6.5M

OF David Dahl 4M

OF Brent Rooker 0.6M

Utl Enrique Hernandez 7M

Utl Ehire Adrianza 1M

 

SP Kenta Maeda 8.15M

SP Jose Berrios 6.1M

SP Jake Odorizzi 12M

SP Michael Pineda 10M

SP Lews Thorpe or Randy Dobnak or Devin Smeltzer 0.6M

 

RP Brad Hand 8M

RP Archie Bradley 5M

RP Taylor Rogers 6M

RP Tyler Duffey 2.2M

RP Jorge Alcala 0.6M

RP Caleb Thielbar 0.65M

RP Cody Stashak 0.6M

RP Derek Law 0.6M

 

Total Payroll $125M

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#40 TopGunn#22

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Posted 05 December 2020 - 03:53 PM

Twins Territory,It looks like you left out Donaldson, but I still come up with about $125.