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Alternative FA Contract Strategies

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#21 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 08:48 AM

Let's talk Sano for a minute. Is Sano's possible 40 HR, 200 Ks, .220 BA and $11M salary more valuable than Rooker's possible 30 HR, 170 Ks, .265 BA, and $.6M salary? The $10.5M savings (along with saving $11M by letting Rosario leave) would be a nice down payment on a Trevor Bauer signing. I would prefer Kirolloff in left field and Rooker at 1B (or vice versa) and Bauer pitching every 5th day.

#22 amjgt

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 09:18 AM

The short answer is "No", but if we're willing to ship off Sano in favor of a 600k replacement, what makes us think that any other team is interesting in taking on that guaranteed money for the next two years?

 

 


#23 chpettit19

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 09:39 AM

 

I have wondered about other sources of revenue looking at Forbes estimate for the Twins. They estimated $300M for 2019 and I was a little surprised. Even if they derive 45% of revenue from gate related income, that leaves $165M and their Local + National TV revenue is under $100M. What's the source of the other $65M? It does not seem to me like Forbes is underestimating revenue.

Every team gets a cut of MLB.tv, MLB Network, etc. revenue. The Twins get more than their local TV deal suggests because of revenue sharing. Teams also bring in money from sponsorships, merchandising, licensing, stadium naming rights (only $5 mil/yr for Target field, but that's still $5 mil). Large league-wide sponsors bring in about $1B/year so each team is getting $30M from those. 

 

At the end of the day MLB teams aren't being sold for billions of dollars if 1 down (but still likely profitable) season puts them in a bad spot for years to come. Some teams will use 2020 as a reason to not spend for 2021, but it's mostly a PR move to explain why they aren't improving their team. Teams trying to win in 2021 should not, and likely won't, run from good FA deals.


#24 chpettit19

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Posted 15 October 2020 - 10:03 AM

 

Let's talk Sano for a minute. Is Sano's possible 40 HR, 200 Ks, .220 BA and $11M salary more valuable than Rooker's possible 30 HR, 170 Ks, .265 BA, and $.6M salary? The $10.5M savings (along with saving $11M by letting Rosario leave) would be a nice down payment on a Trevor Bauer signing. I would prefer Kirolloff in left field and Rooker at 1B (or vice versa) and Bauer pitching every 5th day.

There were 34 players in 2019 who hit 30 HR and had a .265 or better BA. I find it hard to believe Rooker is stepping in and having anywhere near that line in his rookie year after the league got a little look at him and are already compiling scouting reports to attack him effectively next year.

 

If you know you're getting those 2 lines out of them at their current price tags then obviously the choice is Rooker, but there is nothing to suggest a minor league .267 hitter with 54 HR in 259 games is going to step into a major league lineup and hit .265 with 30 HR in 140-150 games (assuming he gets the same regular rest treatment the rest of the team does). That is basically no drop off in BA or HR/game and an improvement on K/game. 1 HR every 4.8 games to 1 every 4.7 (.2 HR/game for both) after making the jump to the majors. 1.2 K/game to 1.1 after the jump to the majors.

 

That being said there should definitely be some talk about Sano's future with the team. He's not irreplaceable and they shouldn't be conducting themselves as if he's the answer at 1B for the next 5 years. But to assume any of the rookies are stepping in and putting up a top 35 in the majors hitting line seems real aggressive.

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