Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Recent Blogs

From MinnCentric


Photo

Article: Would a Six-Man Rotation Make Sense?

  • Please log in to reply
55 replies to this topic

#1 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,231 posts

Posted 03 January 2013 - 11:38 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...tion-Make-Sense

#2 glunn

glunn

    Head Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,669 posts
  • LocationBeverly Hills, CA

Posted 03 January 2013 - 11:54 PM

I think that you have a very good idea for making the most of a bad situation. This seems like a good strategy for getting a look at more starters and hopefully finding some who can perform. I also like the idea of not stressing the arms that are still fragile.

#3 lightfoot789

lightfoot789

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 786 posts

Posted 03 January 2013 - 11:55 PM

Couldn't say it better. GREAT IDEA !!!

#4 old nurse

old nurse

    Member

  • Members
  • 1,876 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:09 AM

As completing 6 innings might be a task also, there would still need to be the large bullpen. That would leave the bench short. A regulars day off would be called playing DH that day.

#5 jmlease1

jmlease1

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 153 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:14 AM

Not the craziest idea I've heard this winter. It would allow Gibson to keep pitching longer into the year while still keeping his overall workload at the arbitrary innings cap he's going to be on. I wonder if that would help keep someone like Harden healthier over the course of the season as well?

Wear vs sharpness, maybe?

It would be creative. Would it create any additional strain on the bullpen? You'd essentially be dumping the long man/mop-up guy spot on the staff unless you carried 12 pitchers (a horrid idea, IMHO, but one the Twins have gone with before) If these guys are more capable of getting deeper into games, 5 guys in the 'pen should be enough, but too many bad starts in a row and you'd have to scrap the idea, I think.

It should be something worth considering, but it'll never happen. Gardenhire & Anderson are far too conservative to even bandy it about.

#6 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,911 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:34 AM

I agree with the concern about increasing the pitching staff size.

I also agree that the Twins enter the season with some fragile arms. I would use Correia as the "6th starter" from the pen when all are healthy. Insert him as needed to replace a starter following a high pitch count start. Insert him in the rotation in the middle of a long stretch without a day off. When the day to day injuries occur, be quicker to DL a pitcher and insert Correia in the rotation.

It takes more than 5 starters to get through the season(... except for the Reds). I would prefer Correia to be the pitcher that gets bounced back and forth between the pen and rotation.

#7 glunn

glunn

    Head Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,669 posts
  • LocationBeverly Hills, CA

Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:40 AM

As completing 6 innings might be a task also, there would still need to be the large bullpen. That would leave the bench short. A regulars day off would be called playing DH that day.


In a pinch, maybe the guy who has had 5 days rest could come out of the bullpen, and everyone else could move up a day?

#8 jimbo92107

jimbo92107

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 557 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 02:57 AM

Isn't that already what the Twins did last season? They had about a dozen different starting pitchers. Why fight it, just bring in a whole bunch of guys, then rotate them in and out of the bullpen.

#9 jwestbrock

jwestbrock

    Member

  • Members
  • 42 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 07:46 AM

I think it is worth trying to start the year with this bunch of stuff, at least as long as the non-Tommy John/major shoulder brigade are being expected to go get 7 or 8 decently pitched innings. I think this could have a chance to keep the bullpen fresher compared to last year as well.

#10 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,955 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 07:53 AM

Not a bad idea. I don't know if it's needed out of Opening Day (with all the off days that usually come with April) but it should definitely be explored as an option, especially if/when Gibson is ready for the rotation.

#11 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 7,634 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 07:57 AM

I think they should get rid of starters completely outside of Diamond and Worley. All others go 2 or 3 innings every 2 or 3 days. That way they can throw harder every outing. Some day, a team will succeed with this idea. There is no reason to ask all starters to try to be like all other starters.

#12 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:48 AM

Wouldn't it make more sense to figure out who your best five guys are and have them pitch as opposed to giving 27 starts to your 6th best pitcher?

#13 ericchri

ericchri

    Generally Clueless

  • Members
  • 397 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:55 AM

I'd really worry about our bench at that point. We barely have one as it is (especially with one of those spots being taken up by Butera). If we give up another of those spots to a pitcher, we essentially can't afford any injuries to any of our position players in a game, just shifting the injury concern around a little bit.

I think a 6-man rotation could work, if it was built with players you could trust more to be able to go at least 5 innings every time out so that you could drop a bullpen arm. I don't think this staff rates like that unfortunately, at least not initially (it will be interesting to see how well they pitch, it probably can't help but be better than last year's April pitching). Our bullpen looks like it could be pretty solid, though bullpens are traditionally pretty unpredictable. I think you just live with the fact that they're gonna get worked hard again this year. Burton is a healthy year removed from his surgery, so they don't have to be quite as cautious with him this time around, Duensing should be in the pen permanently with all the potential options to start they now have. If Fien can be even remotely close to what he was last year they've got 4 really good pitchers in the pen.

I'm with ThePuck on this one. Pick your best 5 and roll with it. If/when one of them falls apart try the next guy in line.

#14 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,955 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:22 AM

Wouldn't it make more sense to figure out who your best five guys are and have them pitch as opposed to giving 27 starts to your 6th best pitcher?


The point is that right now, the Twins don't look much different #2 to #6 or #7. Most teams are front-loaded with pitchers that aren't awful. The Twins have Diamond (likely due to regression), Worley (quite large question mark with the minor injury and switch to AL), and then... five or six guys who could pitch anywhere between a 4.00 and a 6.00 ERA.

#15 chaderic20

chaderic20

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 27 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:53 AM

I think they should get rid of starters completely outside of Diamond and Worley. All others go 2 or 3 innings every 2 or 3 days. That way they can throw harder every outing. Some day, a team will succeed with this idea. There is no reason to ask all starters to try to be like all other starters.


I've always thought this would be an interesting experiment for a team with a bad conventional starting rotation. A 12-man pitching staff: Nine what I'll call "primaries", instead of starters, and three "situationals", instead of relievers. The primaries are grouped into three sets of three that pitch approximately three innings each every three days. You can mix-and-match styles and righty/lefty to keep hitters off balance throughout the game since most hitters will only see each pitcher once or maybe twice. Then the situationals are brought in for specialty matchups in high-leverage situations and for extra innings.

#16 Boom Boom

Boom Boom

    Hydraulic Choppers

  • Members
  • 1,275 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:07 AM

Why stop at six?

#17 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:17 AM

The point is that right now, the Twins don't look much different #2 to #6 or #7. Most teams are front-loaded with pitchers that aren't awful. The Twins have Diamond (likely due to regression), Worley (quite large question mark with the minor injury and switch to AL), and then... five or six guys who could pitch anywhere between a 4.00 and a 6.00 ERA.


I get the point, but the coaches need to figure out who their best 5 are and go with it. No need to give the 6th guy, even if it's really close between him and the others, 27 or so starts

#18 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,261 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:28 AM

Someday, a staff of three inning (let's try and get once thru the order) pitchers. Boy, would that be something!

#19 Willihammer

Willihammer

    ice cream correspondent

  • Members
  • 3,608 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:38 AM

I get the point, but the coaches need to figure out who their best 5 are and go with it. No need to give the 6th guy, even if it's really close between him and the others, 27 or so starts


It would be worth it if the added rest improves the output in the other 135 starts commensurately.

I ran some quick math on our likely front 5. Historically, they have all done a bit better on 5 days rest, although worse on 6+ days rest. It looks to me like there's not enough here to either support or not support the theory, just a little interesting.

[TABLE="width: 615"]


worley
pelfrey
correia
diamond
[TD="colspan: 2"]blackburn[/TD]
total


4 days rest GS
[TD="align: right"]23.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]77.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]69.00[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]266.00[/TD]


4 days rest IP
[TD="align: right"]136.33[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]459.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]433.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]114.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]393.33[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]1536.98[/TD]


4 days rest IP/GS
[TD="align: right"]5.93[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.96[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.56[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.03[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.70[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.78[/TD]


4 days rest ERA
[TD="align: right"]3.70[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.71[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.32[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.74[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.53[/TD]


5 days rest GS
[TD="align: right"]12.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43.00[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]156.00[/TD]


5 days rest IP
[TD="align: right"]75.33[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]274.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]291.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]258.66[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]949.31[/TD]


5 days rest IP/GS
[TD="align: right"]6.28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.23[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.83[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.09[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.02[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.09[/TD]


5 days rest ERA
[TD="align: right"]3.46[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.97[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.32[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.29[/TD]


6+ days rest GS
[TD="align: right"]11.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23.00[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]92.00[/TD]


6+ days rest IP
[TD="align: right"]56.33[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]146.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]128.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138.00[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]517.31[/TD]


6+ dyas rest IP/GS
[TD="align: right"]5.12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.64[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.96[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.00[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.62[/TD]


6+ days rest ERA
[TD="align: right"]3.36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.91[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.90[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.17[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.55[/TD]

[/TABLE]

#20 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:39 AM

It would be worth it if the added rest improves the output in the other 135 starts commensurately.

I ran some quick math on our likely front 5. Historically, they have all done a bit better on 5 days rest, although worse on 6+ days rest. It looks to me like there's not enough here to either support or not support the theory, just a little interesting.



[TABLE="width: 615"]


worley
pelfrey
correia
diamond
[TD="colspan: 2"]blackburn[/TD]
total


4 days rest GS
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]77[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]69[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]266[/TD]


4 days rest IP
[TD="align: right"]136.33[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]459[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]433.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]114.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]393.33[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]1536.98[/TD]


4 days rest IP/GS
[TD="align: right"]5.927391[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.961039[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.559744[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.034737[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.700435[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.77812[/TD]


4 days rest ERA
[TD="align: right"]3.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.71[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.32[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.74[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.527331[/TD]


5 days rest GS
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]156[/TD]


5 days rest IP
[TD="align: right"]75.33[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]274[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]291.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]258.66[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]949.31[/TD]


5 days rest IP/GS
[TD="align: right"]6.2775[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.227273[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.8332[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.094286[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.015349[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.085321[/TD]


5 days rest ERA
[TD="align: right"]3.46[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.97[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.32[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.293718[/TD]


6+ days rest GS
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]92[/TD]


6+ days rest IP
[TD="align: right"]56.33[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]146.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]128.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47.66[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]517.31[/TD]


6+ dyas rest IP/GS
[TD="align: right"]5.120909[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.640769[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.360833[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.9575[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.622935[/TD]


6+ days rest ERA
[TD="align: right"]3.36[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.91[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.17[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.553587[/TD]

[/TABLE]


Dig the research, thanks!