Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Re-Load vs. Re-Tool vs. Re-Build for 2021

  • Please log in to reply
79 replies to this topic

#21 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 1,849 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 12:25 PM

I think the re-load is coming if only because I question whether players with options to go will want to stay. Cruz has one or two years left at most. It will be interesting to see if any other team is willing to invest a roster spot in a guy who can only DH. I think there will be and if one of them seems like a real contender (Yankees? Cleveland?), he'll leave to chase the ring he likely thinks he can't get next year in Minnesota. May will go for more money, same with Odorizzi. Rosario is classic trade bait - one more year of control on a team with internal options to replace him. He's probably only worth prospects, hopefully at least one of which is a starting pitcher. Gonzalez should be gone - he's over 30, can't hit unless he knows what's coming and his "versatility" just isn't that important. Same for Adrianza if we have someone who can play SS off the bench to replace him. Is Lewis or Gordon that guy for next year? Avila is toast at the plate, Jeffers is better.

 

I think what we're going to see is Gonzalez, Adrianza, Avila, Rosario, Odorizzi, and May all gone, at the very least. I think our odds of retaining Cruz are no more than 50/50. These guys will mostly be replaced internally, with the possible exception of a utility player or an average-ish starter if Hill doesn't come back. I don't see the Twins signing a lot of Free agents because the good ones won't come to the Twins and this FO hasn't shown a tendency to overpay for the average ones. I think the 7 above players are gone, replaced by Rooker, Kirilloff, Gordon or Lewis, a FA utility guy, Dobnak (for Odo). Jeffers, and a MILB guy for the BP. Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Sano all stay for one more go round, with Kepler's next season telling us whether he's a starter of a 4th OF who loses his job to Rooker or Kirilloff and Polanco's next season telling us if he can hold off Lewis and Gordon for the SS job or if he becomes the utility guy. We're stuck with Buxton and Sano. Nobody will give us enough for them to sell off their potential.  

 

Is that a better team? Maybe not next year but maybe in a year or two. 


#22 mrtwinsfan

mrtwinsfan

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,914 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 12:45 PM

Next year, -- always the Chant,Gotten Stale 


#23 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Member
  • 16,965 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 12:57 PM

This won't be popular:

Retool, but start by trading Byron Buxton. He flashed enough to be a high end asset but there is a simple, undeniable truth we have to accept: he simply isn't on the field enough. That wont get better with age, this is peak value.

In advocating this I in no way deny his impact as a player or even that he still has upside. It is driven by the sober realization that the man's body is too brittle to be counted on.
  • jud6312 and Dave The Dastardly like this

#24 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Moderator
  • 18,338 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 01:11 PM

 

This won't be popular:

Retool, but start by trading Byron Buxton. He flashed enough to be a high end asset but there is a simple, undeniable truth we have to accept: he simply isn't on the field enough. That wont get better with age, this is peak value.

In advocating this I in no way deny his impact as a player or even that he still has upside. It is driven by the sober realization that the man's body is too brittle to be counted on.

What value do you think they can get back for him right now, though? It's not like his inconsistency and unavailability are unknown to the rest of the league. And he ended the year with a concussion, and only has 2 years control left.

  • wabene and Battle ur tail off like this

#25 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Member
  • 16,965 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 01:15 PM

What value do you think they can get back for him right now, though? It's not like his inconsistency and unavailability are unknown to the rest of the league. And he ended the year with a concussion, and only has 2 years control left.


I don't know, but they should aggressively explore the option.

#26 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 10,190 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 01:41 PM

 

I don't know, but they should aggressively explore the option.

Sure, explore. But I don't think we will move Buxton.

  • wabene likes this

#27 Road trip

Road trip

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 16 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 01:43 PM

I think it starts with retooling the coaching staff. A new hitting coach is a must. I'd love to get Rowson back but that probably won't/can't happen.

 

In terms of the roster, I don't think anyone has mentioned yet that Garver may be redundant at this point. It seems that Jeffers is already better defensively, he's significantly younger, and it appears that his bat will be solid. Multiple teams will be looking for a catcher and Garver has a cheap contract and is one year removed from an outstanding season. Somebody might overpay for Garver now. Most catchers age badly, and he will be 30 next year. Wait another year (if he has a bad one) and Garver may have no trade value left.

 

I've always loved Garver and wished he had played more when he was younger. But it isn't personal...it's business.


#28 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 1,849 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 01:55 PM

I like the out of the box thinking, but I don't think we can trade Garver. Catchers are hard to find and you have to have 2 since nobody plays more than 60% of the games at catcher. We don't have anyone to replace Garver if and until Rortvedt is ready. We can't play Avila much and Astudillo is a sideshow attraction, not a MLB catcher (or MLB player, for that matter). I think we have to keep Garver and hope he can get closer to 2019 than 2020 next year. Besides, he won't have much value after the year he just had so we wouldn't get much for him. Garver is more valuable to the Twins than to anyone else. 

 

I do think we should consider shaking the team up with a trade but I not very sanguine about being able to make one that really improves the team.My best guess is that Rosario will be shopped and the Twins will listen if anyone inquires about Sano. Once again, though, I don't think they will garner much more than good (A- to B+) prospects after last year. I just don't think we can improve the team much through trading unless we're willing to give up a higher end prospect or pitching. I'm against both so I think any improvement for next season will have to come from internal sources.

  • flpmagikat, mshnd06 and wabene like this

#29 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Member
  • 16,965 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 02:04 PM

Sure, explore. But I don't think we will move Buxton.


I was making an "ought" argument. I doubt they even consider it, but they should. He is a constant "if only" regret with his health.

#30 ashbury

ashbury

    Twins fan for life!

  • Member
  • 25,978 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 01 October 2020 - 02:56 PM

I was making an "ought" argument. I doubt they even consider it, but they should. He is a constant "if only" regret with his health.

I'm starting to think he's a luxury for the right rich team. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can afford a 40-man spot for a guy who can be stellar if he plays, because they can also afford the money for a backup with less of a dropoff than Jake Cave or his ilk. Get two or more teams who want Buxton, and the offers could start to get good.

 

Don't just give him away, no.
 

  • TheLeviathan, DocBauer and wabene like this

Wayne's World is the top show in Russia right now... NYET!


#31 ashbury

ashbury

    Twins fan for life!

  • Member
  • 25,978 posts
  • LocationNatick, MA

Posted 01 October 2020 - 03:17 PM

Hill and his incentive-laden deal doesn't seem like it was too much trouble in 2020, and could be even less trouble in 2021 if he's not coming off surgery.

Not coming off of surgery may mean an incentive-laden deal like 2020 won't be enough. (He also may not be open to coming back to this team, given the roster decision for post-season.)

 

I just never felt I was watching an elite pitcher on the verge of dominating a strong offense in the post-season. His ERA was nice, but FIP and especially xFIP seem to bear out my eye-test - OPS-against was a stellar .601 but based on a .240 BABIP. He labored to locate, I thought, even if his average pitches per PA were overall on the decent side. And, again strictly in my own mind I guess, he always had the demeanor of being on the verge of needing to come out of the game for some physical ailment.

 

I'll grant that he finished strong with 3 good games, one very good in fact. I definitely didn't see his last two games - not sure which of his games I did see, in fact, though I definitely saw a couple. That's why I trust analytics more than my anecdotal memory. :)
 

Getting more of a sure thing than Hill isn't that easy. So maybe saying goodbye isn't an obvious decision. I still lean toward moving on, and letting him continue his career with the Pittsburghs of the world who are looking for upside and willing to accept a flameout due to age (with a trade to a contender if he produces).

Wayne's World is the top show in Russia right now... NYET!


#32 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Moderator
  • 18,338 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 03:19 PM

 

I'm starting to think he's a luxury for the right rich team. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can afford a 40-man spot for a guy who can be stellar if he plays, because they can also afford the money for a backup with less of a dropoff than Jake Cave or his ilk. Get two or more teams who want Buxton, and the offers could start to get good.

 

Don't just give him away, no.
 

Maybe the Yankees could offer us their backup catcher for our starting CF. :)

 

If it's not an elite prospect (and I suspect it wouldn't be), I am not sure the Twins would need the prospect more than they could use the dice-roll on Buxton themselves the next two years.

  • USAFChief, Twins33, DocBauer and 2 others like this

#33 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Moderator
  • 18,338 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 03:25 PM

 

Not coming off of surgery may mean an incentive-laden deal like 2020 won't be enough. (He also may not be open to coming back to this team, given the roster decision for post-season.)

I think Hill is at an age where some kind of incentive deal is the standard expectation going forward. Maybe not quite his 2020 deal but not a real high guarantee either.

 

I also suspect he didn't mind the postseason roster decision -- he started the final game of the season when it still meant something, and wasn't going to be available for the first round. It doesn't seem like much of a slight.

  • wabene likes this

#34 one_eyed_jack

one_eyed_jack

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 678 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 04:24 PM

I honestly have no idea what the answer is.It's so maddening.  

 

In the wake of a lot of the playoff losses to the Yankees, you could at least recognize that they were a more talented, deeper and more experienced team.Their starting pitching was far better.(When you're countering Sabathias and Pettites with Blackburns and Duensings, you shouldn't be surprised when it doesn't go your way).

 

But I don't know how to explain what we've seen the last 2 years.So many guys up and down the lineup who were consistently good for the regular season looking completely overmatched and clueless against middling pitchers in the postseason.  

 

I'm not really interested in a rebuild, I don't want another early 2010's string of 100-loss seasons.As much as this playoff loss hurts, I'll take it over having your season effectively over by Father's Day.

 

So I guess I'd tend to keep this core together for another shot at it. But if they don't take a step forward (i.e. make the playoffs and win a round) next year, then I believe it would be time to look at bigger changes.

 

 

 

  • wabene likes this

#35 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Member
  • 16,965 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 04:46 PM

 

I'm starting to think he's a luxury for the right rich team. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can afford a 40-man spot for a guy who can be stellar if he plays, because they can also afford the money for a backup with less of a dropoff than Jake Cave or his ilk. Get two or more teams who want Buxton, and the offers could start to get good.

 

Don't just give him away, no.
 

 

Certainly don't give him away....but a roster built on needing him lile the Twins seems doomed to keep getting burned.


#36 GNess

GNess

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 32 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 08:53 PM

Nice template, interesting topic although my comment may be reactionary so be it.

 

To determine the off-season approach the team needs to determine who are the core players - for this purpose the most talented/impactful players and those that consistently exemplify the identity/culture of the team.

 

CORE - The Keepers.

 

Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Rogers, Duffey

 

Donaldson, Arraez, Buxton, Jeffers, Kiriloff (Cruz if you can re-sign him)

 

OTHERS

 

Can all be moved if the return in assets strengthens the Twins.

  • Vanimal46 likes this

#37 sftwinsfan

sftwinsfan

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 217 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 08:56 PM

I expect a couple changes but probably nothing too drastic. Bauer has sworn in the past he will only sign 1-year deals so there is a possibility there. Management is still going to see Maeda, Berrios and Pineda leading the rotation and a solid lineup. That's enough to sell their fair share of tickets and compete. 

 

Rosario will be gone, likely for a C-level prospect or not offered arbitration. They didn't seem to get much offered for him last offseason, a year later won't improve things. Other teams know who is he and also can see the Twins probably won't bring him back. 

 

If a team is willing to overpay on Buxton you talk to them. If not, you don't repeat the Hicks-type trade. I could see Kepler or Polanco bringing back something. Both are signed to affordable deals, both could be replaced in the next couple years by Larnach and Lewis. Both also seem a bit lackadaisical at times. I think they're likely stuck with Sano. Hopefully he can turn things around a bit. Let Garver and Jeffers battle it out for playing time. If they're both hitting, the other can spell Sano at 1st if he's struggling.

  • wabene likes this

#38 annismark

annismark

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 4 posts

Posted 01 October 2020 - 10:31 PM

I'm generally a fan of turning over your worst players. Besides Garver the lowest OPS of guys that played were Avila, Gonzales and Adrianza (''m also not including Wade here).  Most posters agreed that these guys should be gone.  

 

Of the regulars, Polanco was at the bottom and had his worst year statistically at age 27.  Rosario, 4th in OPS and led team in RBIs, but more expendable if you bet that Kirolloff is immediately an upgrade  If I can get something of immediate value, (an upgrade at shortstop), sure take a shot at dealing both. 

 

I hate to say it but trading Sano might be the best option. If you think Kirilloff is an upgrade to Rosario, he's also an upgrade to Sano (8th in OPS, 26 RBIs compared to Rosario's 43)

 

 

  • TopGunn#22 likes this

#39 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    Pitch(er) Mix: Tequila, Orange Liqueur, Lime Juice

  • Member
  • 13,813 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 02 October 2020 - 07:28 AM

Nice template, interesting topic although my comment may be reactionary so be it.

To determine the off-season approach the team needs to determine who are the core players - for this purpose the most talented/impactful players and those that consistently exemplify the identity/culture of the team.

CORE - The Keepers.

Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Rogers, Duffey

Donaldson, Arraez, Buxton, Jeffers, Kiriloff (Cruz if you can re-sign him)

OTHERS

Can all be moved if the return in assets strengthens the Twins.


That’s about who I would have labeled as the core in my mind. I would add Polanco and Sano to the core group, since they were considered as so prior to the 2020 season.

Then have a subcategory of “Fast Risers” for Jeffers and Kirilloff. They could very well be a part of the core after 2021.
  • GNess likes this

#40 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Moderator
  • 18,338 posts

Posted 02 October 2020 - 07:34 AM

 

Bauer has sworn in the past he will only sign 1-year deals so there is a possibility there.

Bauer is definitely a guy to watch this offseason. I suspect it was easier to say "I'm only signing 1-year deals" when he was stuck in the arbitration process up until now, as opposed to the multiple multi-year offers on the open market which he'll get for the first time this winter. He could always look for a multi-year deal with an opt-out too, which is not uncommon.