Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store

Recent Blogs


Photo

Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

  • Please log in to reply
150 replies to this topic

#1 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,100 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:08 PM

Twins might not be done looking at pitchers, plus plenty of other notes | StarTribune.com

Lots of good notes in La Velle's latest entry, but this bit really stuck in my craw:

"Indications are that they are not going to hand out the two-year deal for $14-15 million that has become the rage this offseason (see Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton and Francisco Liriano). They will let Joe Saunders walk if that is the case. Same for Brett Myers and Shawn Marcum (there are health issues with Marcum too).

But if the offseason continues and the those pitchers remain unsigned, the Twins will take a harder look at them if they lower their demands. Despite having money to spend (they could open the season with a payroll in the low $80M range) they are not going to pay what they think is too much for average pitching."


I don't know to what degree Neal is speculating here, but if this actually reflects the thought process of the front office it's disheartening to say the least. How can one balk at $15M for McCarthy or Blanton, yet be OK with giving $10M to Correia? I realize the Twins were probably never going to get involved with a big-money long-term deal for a SP, but their apparent unwillingness to even be competitive for legitimate free agent pitchers is a slap in the face to fans.

If they won't "pay what they think is too much" to improve their product, despite being so far below their established payroll level, why should anyone be inclined to pay the considerable price to go out and support that product next summer? When it comes to improving the 2013 club, the gap between this team's rhetoric and actions is way too large.

#2 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,339 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:15 PM

Overpaying for guaranteed mediocrity (at best) is perfectly acceptable though.

#3 Gernzy

Gernzy

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 449 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:21 PM

Neal made plently of good points. Starting pitchers have been getting overpaid for years and not always giving results. While I think we overpaid for Correia I understand not giving McCarthy $15 million.

I still want us to sign a solid pitcher, but who left doesn't have question marks?
I bent my wookie...

#4 Boom Boom

Boom Boom

    Hydraulic Choppers

  • Members
  • 1,173 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:24 PM

I like where LEN3 says that the Twins feel Correia was on his way to 190+ innings when the Pirates bumped him from the rotation.

The Pirates. Bumped him. From their (the Pirates') rotation.

#5 Guest_USAFChief_*

Guest_USAFChief_*
  • Guests

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:27 PM

Anyone still willing to claim cutting payroll isnt priority one? Anyone? Bueller?

#6 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,339 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:32 PM

Anyone still willing to claim cutting payroll isnt priority one? Anyone? Bueller?


They're just saving up for a really big free agent splash next offseason.



2/14 for Barry Zito.

#7 COtwin

COtwin

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 117 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:37 PM

Myers 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 160 SO 168 IP avg last 3 years
Marcum 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 109 SO 173 IP avg last 3 years
Saunders 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 112 SO 196 IP avg last 3 years
Correia 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 89 SO 156 IP avg last 3 years

1st off. If the Twins mgmt is so dead set against the 2 year $14-15 million deal, they certainly didnt' show it by signing an inferior player for slightly less. If Correia can get 2/10, than Saunders and Myers and Marcum look pretty good at 2/14. I am sorry but Myers for 2/14 looks damn good. Myers is a different class of pitcher than Saunders (lack of strikeout ability), Marcum (durability), Correia (suckability).

#8 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Cynical Oldie

  • Members
  • 3,886 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:39 PM

While I don't have a big problem with them refusing to overpay for pitching this year (although as NIck notes, where is the line that denotes overpaying?), I strongly believe that they would refuse to "overpay" even if the rest of the team looked good (LEN3 touches on this). THAT is a huge problem for me. The fact of the matter is that the Twins and pitching are just not a happy marriage -- they haven't been good at drafting it; they seem mediocre at developing it; and they refuse to pay much for it.

So overall, it doesn't make me very hopeful about this team -- even if the team is improved several years from now and works its way back to "contender" status -- because I believe that they will do the same thing they have always done and "skimp" on pitching and will only ever be groomsmen and never the groom. I hope that they prove me wrong. But until they do, I think that I -- and all other fans -- should remain skeptical.

#9 edavis0308

edavis0308

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 576 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:46 PM

I hope people have their questions ready for the Twins brass at the caravan stops. I will be waiting for you all to report back to us with what is said.

#10 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Members
  • 568 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:52 PM

I hated this paragraph the most:

"The Twins see value in Correia making at least 26 starts in each of the previous four seasons. They feel he was on his way to 190-plus innings last season when the Pirates dealt for Wandy Rodriguez for the stretch drive and bumped Correia to the bullpen. To them, $5 million a year for a back of a rotation guy is reasonable."

While I agree $5 million a year is reasonable for a back of the rotation guy, when you consider the production Correia gave Pittsburgh each of those 4 seasons, it's laughable. This is the same type of production the Twins got out of Sam Deduno, Cole Devries, P.J. Walters, and Liam Hendriks last year.

But also, if $5 Mil a year is reasonable for a Correia, how in H-E-Double-Hockey-Stick is $7.5 MIL not for a McCarthy/Saunders/Marcum. When, you know, they might actually be something more than a back of the rotation guy. Baffling...

And finally: "they are not going to pay what they think is too much for average pitching." Yet, as we seem to agree, they'll overpay for below-average pitching.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#11 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:54 PM

Over on the MLB Twins site, Rhett wrote an article about how our starting staff was bad mostly due to injuries...so, it makes sense we'd pick up the kind of pitchers we did this offseason...pure examples of durability and health...

#12 ThePuck

ThePuck

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,232 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 02:00 PM

Anyone still willing to claim cutting payroll isnt priority one? Anyone? Bueller?


I keep getting told money is definitely not a reason why good pitchers won't come here...being told I'm basically stupid to think money could even be one contributing factor amongst other factors for pitchers not coming here....so, yeah, I think there are people who claim cutting payroll isnt priority one. We'd spend if they'd just come here... :-)

Edited by ThePuck, 26 December 2012 - 02:06 PM.


#13 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,041 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 02:22 PM

I s $7-8 million overpayment for average pitching? 3rd-year arbitration average.

But what is average? I would think $1 million a victory would be high. How many pitchers are worth $20 million. I'm sorry. They win half of the games they start. Hopefully keep you in the game for the oterh half. Then they are a 200-inning ace.

What is the price for middle-relief. Used to be $2.5-4 million....now it is creaking up to $5 million for experienced journeymen.

Yet the closer market seems to be taking a hit. Nathan and Pap may be the last of the truly big money guys. Is a closer really worth $10+ million (Hey, Capps is still out there).

When starting pitching starts to demand $10 million a season, then I see that as overpayment. I would not blink at McCarthy or Saunders or Marcum in the $7-8 range. That is average for quality, in my books.

You try and tell me, Twins, that you didn't overpay for Capps, Pavano, Marquis...even for a look at Zumaya. You had no problem siging Blackburn to his contract for which was above average for a pitcher at that time.

Yes, remain the bridesmaid. Wait for the guy to lower their options or not find a job.

Anyone wonder, on another note, how this new draft thingie for a free agent is going to work out? Seems to hurt those with offers this season. What was truly wrong with the old system? And get rid of that magic whatever (this year $13 million) figure.
Joel Thingvall
www.thingvall.com
rosterman at www.twinscards.com

#14 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,339 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 26 December 2012 - 02:28 PM

Anyone wonder, on another note, how this new draft thingie for a free agent is going to work out? Seems to hurt those with offers this season. What was truly wrong with the old system? And get rid of that magic whatever (this year $13 million) figure.


What was wrong with it? Just about everything. The new setup isn't great, but it's a million times better than the previous abomination.

#15 Top Gun

Top Gun

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,253 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:09 PM

When do the Twins overpay for anything? They overpay for garbage for being cheap!

#16 edavis0308

edavis0308

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 576 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:16 PM

When do the Twins overpay for anything? They overpay for garbage for being cheap!


Have you really had 833 posts all to this nature? We get it.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

SpiritofVodkaDave

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,170 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:16 PM

Oh yay, another thread where we bitch and moan about Correia!

Listen, we all know its a stupid deal, we don't need to hear about in 60 times a week. Nobody is debating that it was a bad move. Move on folks.

I am encouraged that they won't CONTINUE to over pay for average/crappy pitching. 1 2/10 mil bad deals is easier to live with then 2 or 3 of them.

#18 Boom Boom

Boom Boom

    Hydraulic Choppers

  • Members
  • 1,173 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:22 PM

Oh yay, another thread where we bitch and moan about Correia!

Listen, we all know its a stupid deal, we don't need to hear about in 60 times a week. Nobody is debating that it was a bad move. Move on folks.

I am encouraged that they won't CONTINUE to over pay for average/crappy pitching. 1 2/10 mil bad deals is easier to live with then 2 or 3 of them.


LEN3 and the Twins are saying it wasn't a bad move.

Also... I'm sorry if you're sick of hearing about Correia. Get used to it because he'll be here for a while.

#19 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,339 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:28 PM

Oh yay, another thread where we bitch and moan about Correia!

Listen, we all know its a stupid deal, we don't need to hear about in 60 times a week. Nobody is debating that it was a bad move. Move on folks.

I am encouraged that they won't CONTINUE to over pay for average/crappy pitching. 1 2/10 mil bad deals is easier to live with then 2 or 3 of them.


There's no cheerleading the Correia signing accompanied by these kind of quotes out of the front office.

How about you move on? :P

#20 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,461 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:33 PM

I'm hopeful Neal will start offering his opinions on this work more in the future.
Lighten up Francis....

#21 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,242 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:33 PM

I dropped as a season ticket holder in part because I knew there was no chance this team was going to be significantly better for a few years even with an aggressive offseason. Ryan's lofty rhetoric was pretty misleading, especially since Ryan's track record is well established. I know people wanted to be optimistic about "what would he do with a bigger budget though?" line of thinking but the man has always been stingy about large contracts. Hell, the blame for the Santana situation still rests largely on his shoulders. All the things that make Ryan great (and a good fit for this team's need to rebuild IMO) are the same reasons why we shouldn't have taken his pre-offseason comments seriously.

#22 70charger

70charger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,176 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:40 PM

It's been said that "if 2/$10m is supposedly reasonable for Correia, how is 2/$15m NOT reasonable for Marcum?" Good point. But it misses the reverse. If you find that 2/$10m is an absolutely terrible deal for Correia (as it seems that everyone does), how is 2/$15 million not a terrible deal for Marcum? Two wrongs don't make a right.

The Twins already overpaid for average pitching. I'm okay with their not doing it twice.

#23 Highabove

Highabove

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 588 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:45 PM

At a Season Ticket holder Conference, Ryan stated that he would use all means possible to bring in high quality pitchers and significantly improve the Starting Staff. Payroll would not be an issue. Ryan has not been very honest up to this point. Hopefully this can be subject to change.

Edited by Highabove, 26 December 2012 - 03:49 PM.


#24 SweetOne69

SweetOne69

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 470 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:00 PM

Just a thought here but maybe Neal and Ryan meant to say that they won't pay MORE than 2/$15 for average pitching.

#25 Clyde

Clyde

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 23 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:02 PM

Myers 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 160 SO 168 IP avg last 3 years
Marcum 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 109 SO 173 IP avg last 3 years
Saunders 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 112 SO 196 IP avg last 3 years
Correia 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 89 SO 156 IP avg last 3 years

1st off. If the Twins mgmt is so dead set against the 2 year $14-15 million deal, they certainly didnt' show it by signing an inferior player for slightly less. If Correia can get 2/10, than Saunders and Myers and Marcum look pretty good at 2/14. I am sorry but Myers for 2/14 looks damn good. Myers is a different class of pitcher than Saunders (lack of strikeout ability), Marcum (durability), Correia (suckability).


Myers well may be within their radar. Sometimes no news is still negotiations

#26 Clyde

Clyde

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 23 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:05 PM

I believe you were told top free agents wouldn't come to a last place team. That would be Sanchez and Greinke. Average like those mentioned will go for a paycheck when they run out of options.

#27 Reginald Maudling's Shin

Reginald Maudling's Shin

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 182 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:19 PM

I dropped as a season ticket holder in part because I knew there was no chance this team was going to be significantly better for a few years even with an aggressive offseason. Ryan's lofty rhetoric was pretty misleading, especially since Ryan's track record is well established. I know people wanted to be optimistic about "what would he do with a bigger budget though?" line of thinking but the man has always been stingy about large contracts. Hell, the blame for the Santana situation still rests largely on his shoulders. All the things that make Ryan great (and a good fit for this team's need to rebuild IMO) are the same reasons why we shouldn't have taken his pre-offseason comments seriously.

They still have a small market mentality. They should have done everything possible to move Cuddyer and Kubel before the 2011 deadline but didn't (I suspect they feared a mini-fan backlash for trading away "fan favorites" in the middle of the season). Last year they tried to patch together a winning team instead of blowing it up and rebuilding. Now they face the inevitability of another losing season and are haggling over 5% of the payroll on a critical part of the team. It appears they are trying to patch another team together that's just good enough to keep people interested.

The one thing the last few years should tell us is that you can never have enough pitching. Overpaying for a starting pitcher who actually has value is a much better investment and will make a lot better impact on the bottom line (i.e. ticket sales) than the bargain basement approach they have chosen.

#28 Top Gun

Top Gun

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,253 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:23 PM

Pretty simple if you don't over pay you will do with out. Where will that get you?

#29 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,393 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:32 PM

I am of the opinion that part of the reason Ryan was reinstated as GM was "his contention" that he won with a much lower payroll than Smith used--and that it could be done again! The comment about "lots of arms" is a clear indicator of the Twins' philosophy of starting pitching--especially when buttressed by the early statements about "a thin pitching market". Sounds like a Catch 22 kind of thing--if a guy had a strong season, he's overpriced, but if a guy didn't have a good last season, he can't be all that good and thus isn't worth much--but that's the kind of pitcher (they) want because next year may be "his year".

#30 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,100 posts

Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:40 PM

It's been said that "if 2/$10m is supposedly reasonable for Correia, how is 2/$15m NOT reasonable for Marcum?" Good point. But it misses the reverse. If you find that 2/$10m is an absolutely terrible deal for Correia (as it seems that everyone does), how is 2/$15 million not a terrible deal for Marcum? Two wrongs don't make a right.

Correia is a borderline fifth starter with very little upside. Marcum is a guy with a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. If you're going to spend a significant chunk of money, use it on a guy who actually has a chance to meaningfully upgrade your rotation, not a back-end placeholder.