Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

A (pretty accurate) look at the seedings

  • Please log in to reply
31 replies to this topic

#21 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Moderator
  • 12,590 posts

Posted 27 September 2020 - 12:30 PM

According to the flow chart above it's possible for us to lose and play Cleveland.

Correct — thanks!
He measured the achievements of others by what they had accomplished, asking of them that they measure him by what he envisaged or planned.
- J. L. Borges

#22 Nine of twelve

Nine of twelve

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 3,418 posts
  • LocationEarth, for the time being

Posted 27 September 2020 - 12:55 PM

 

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous, I'll offer these as "coin-flip" percentages...

 

1-8 series: 

Toronto at Tampa Bay = 75%

New York at Tampa Bay = 25%

 

2-7 series:

Chicago at Minnesota = 15.63%

Cleveland at Minnesota = 46.88%

Chicago at Oakland = 6.25%

Cleveland at Oakland = 18.75%

Cleveland at Chicago = 12.5%

 

3-6 series:

Houston at Minnesota = 12.5%

Houston at Oakland = 75%

Houston at Chicago = 12.5

 

4-5 series

Toronto at Chicago = 18.75%

New York at Chicago = 56.25%

Toronto at Minnesota = 6.25%

New York at Minnesota = 18.75%

This is awesome! Now give us the probabilities of all possible sets of four first-round series. (JK)


#23 Nine of twelve

Nine of twelve

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 3,418 posts
  • LocationEarth, for the time being

Posted 27 September 2020 - 01:04 PM

 

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous, I'll offer these as "coin-flip" percentages...

 

1-8 series: 

Toronto at Tampa Bay = 75%

New York at Tampa Bay = 25%

 

2-7 series:

Chicago at Minnesota = 15.63%

Cleveland at Minnesota = 46.88%

Chicago at Oakland = 6.25%

Cleveland at Oakland = 18.75%

Cleveland at Chicago = 12.5%

 

3-6 series:

Houston at Minnesota = 12.5%

Houston at Oakland = 75%

Houston at Chicago = 12.5

 

4-5 series

Toronto at Chicago = 18.75%

New York at Chicago = 56.25%

Toronto at Minnesota = 6.25%

New York at Minnesota = 18.75%

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous I'll condense this to list only the probabilities for the Twins:

 

Cle at Min: 46.875%

NYY at Min: 18.75%

CWS at Min: 15.625%

Hou at Min: 12.5%

Tor at Min: 6.25%

  • Hosken Bombo Disco and IndianaTwin like this

#24 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    Minnesota Twins

  • Moderator
  • 12,590 posts

Posted 27 September 2020 - 01:10 PM

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous I'll condense this to list only the probabilities for the Twins:
 
Cle at Min: 46.875%
NYY at Min: 18.75%
CWS at Min: 15.625%
Hou at Min: 12.5%
Tor at Min: 6.25%

This is what I was trying to figure out this morning :)
He measured the achievements of others by what they had accomplished, asking of them that they measure him by what he envisaged or planned.
- J. L. Borges

#25 IndianaTwin

IndianaTwin

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 2,088 posts

Posted 27 September 2020 - 01:51 PM

 

This is awesome! Now give us the probabilities of all possible sets of four first-round series. (JK)

 

Don’t tempt me. 


#26 Jimv

Jimv

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 48 posts

Posted 27 September 2020 - 02:19 PM

 

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous I'll condense this to list only the probabilities for the Twins:

 

Cle at Min: 46.875%

NYY at Min: 18.75%

CWS at Min: 15.625%

Hou at Min: 12.5%

Tor at Min: 6.25%

White sox losing big to the cubs right now.  Still early, but if that holds, this is simplified.  If the Twins lose and Oakland wins, then the twins are 3rd seed and play Houston.  All the prior analysis was based on the assumption that every team has a 50-50 chance to win any given game, so based on that, there's a 25% chance we play Houston.   Then there's a 75% chance we play the 7th seed, and since the Sox losing is the basis for this analysis, I think Cleveland is 7th if they lose and Sox are 7th if Cleveland wins.  So, if I haven't made a mistake, we have the following:

37.5 % chance of playing the Sox  

37.5% chance of playing Cleveland

25% chance of playing Houston.


#27 Nine of twelve

Nine of twelve

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 3,418 posts
  • LocationEarth, for the time being

Posted 27 September 2020 - 03:03 PM

 

White sox losing big to the cubs right now. Still early, but if that holds, this is simplified. So, if I haven't made a mistake, we have the following:

37.5 % chance of playing the Sox  

37.5% chance of playing Cleveland

25% chance of playing Houston.

I think this is correct. A Min loss and an Oak win gives us Hou. A Min win gives us 50/50 between CWS and Cle, as does a Min loss and and Oak loss.


#28 Old Twins Cap

Old Twins Cap

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,024 posts

Posted 27 September 2020 - 04:58 PM

And we get the 'Stros.

 

Bring them on, without an Ace.

 

Like it.

  • JoshDungan1, Dozier's Glorious Hair and Nine of twelve like this

#29 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Moderator
  • 18,338 posts

Posted 27 September 2020 - 08:17 PM

And we get the 'Stros.

Bring them on, without an Ace.

Like it.


No ace, but the 3 starters they have lined up are pretty good.

#30 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    A Little Teapot

  • Owner
  • 24,011 posts

Posted 28 September 2020 - 01:17 PM

No ace, but the 3 starters they have lined up are pretty good.

Ace is so subjective anyway. Is Grienke an “ace”? I could be swayed in either direction.
  • spycake and Nine of twelve like this

#31 Nine of twelve

Nine of twelve

    Minnesota Twins

  • Member
  • 3,418 posts
  • LocationEarth, for the time being

Posted 28 September 2020 - 06:30 PM

 

Ace is so subjective anyway. Is Grienke an “ace”? I could be swayed in either direction.

It's even more subjective, to the point of being totally arbitrary, when people start defining pitchers as 2's, 3's, or 4's.


#32 Number3

Number3

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 548 posts

Posted 29 September 2020 - 07:29 AM

Time to just sit back and watch. Play ball.