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Relevant magic numbers with tiebreakers accounted for

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#21 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 05:18 PM

 

Lots of discussion about home field v. the Yankees.

 

If the Twins win the division, they won't face the Yankees until the 3rd round, if ever. Plus, all of these games are on the road for everybody. All of the AL games will be played in SoCal; all of the NL games will be played in Texas.

 

They Twins are now in first place and if they take 2 out the 3 remaining games they will win the division.

 

The Twins only control their own destiny vis a vis winning the division if the White Sox lose tonight (Thursday).Even if they do, the Twins can only be guaranteed a division title if they sweep.However many games the Twins lose this weekend is how many the White Sox would have to lose for the Twins to win the Central.


#22 Nine of twelve

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 06:06 AM

After the games of 9/24:

 

TB over Min: 1

Oak over Min: 4

Min over CWS: 3

Min over Cle: 1

Min over NYY: 0!


#23 IndianaTwin

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 06:42 AM

 

After the games of 9/24:

 

TB over Min: 1

Oak over Min: 4

Min over CWS: 3

Min over Cle: 1

Min over NYY: 0!

 

The Twins are a half game ahead of Oakland, so one could also say that their magic number over Oakland is 3. 


#24 IndianaTwin

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 06:54 AM

After Thursday's games, here's how things seem to stand:

 

1. Tampa Bay: 37-20. Could finish 1, 2, 3.

2. Minnesota: 35-22. Could finish 1, 2, 3, 4, 7

3. Oakland: Could finish 1, 2, 3.

4. Chicago: Could finish 2, 3, 4, 5, 7.

5. New York: Could finish 4, 5, 7, 8.

6. Houston: Could finish 6 or not make playoffs.

7. Cleveland: Could finish 2, 3, 4, 5, 7.

8. Toronto: Could finish 5, 6, 8. 

x. Los Angeles: Could finish 6 or not make playoffs. 

 

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#25 spycake

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 08:05 AM

 

The Twins are a half game ahead of Oakland, so one could also say that their magic number over Oakland is 3. 

Not quite -- they are still even in the loss column and Oakland holds the tiebreaker over the Twins, so Oakland controls its own destiny for the #2 seed. If Oakland wins out, the best the Twins or any AL Central team can be is the #3 seed.

 

Of course, some here have suggested that the Twins may prefer the #3 seed (and facing the Astros in the first round) over the #2 seed (and facing either Cleveland or Chicago again).


#26 spycake

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 08:40 AM

 

After Thursday's games, here's how things seem to stand:

 

1. Tampa Bay: 37-20. Could finish 1, 2, 3.

2. Minnesota: 35-22. Could finish 1, 2, 3, 4, 7

3. Oakland: Could finish 1, 2, 3.

4. Chicago: Could finish 2, 3, 4, 5, 7.

5. New York: Could finish 4, 5, 7, 8.

6. Houston: Could finish 6 or not make playoffs.

7. Cleveland: Could finish 2, 3, 4, 5, 7.

8. Toronto: Could finish 5, 6, 8. 

x. Los Angeles: Could finish 6 or not make playoffs. 

That seems about right, but I think Toronto is 5, 7, 8. (They can't finish 2nd unless they pass NYY, at which point it would be impossible for HOU to catch them too.)

 

But 1 more loss, and TOR will be locked into the #8 seed.

 

Another close "magic number":

 

1 more win for TB, or 1 loss for each of MIN and OAK, and TB is guaranteed the #1 seed.


#27 insagt1

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 08:57 AM

Should be interesting playing a team we hardly ever play for our final 3 games. Cincy is red hot and fighting for a playoff spot. Falvey aside (he says none of this seeding matters) I think Twins want to win the division...and they want to go into post season playing well...not just going thru the motions or resting players unnecessarily. In pro sports, you should always play to win, all the time., 'losing' to win is just not right IMO.


#28 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 09:01 AM

 

Of course, some here have suggested that the Twins may prefer the #3 seed (and facing the Astros in the first round) over the #2 seed (and facing either Cleveland or Chicago again).

 

In the context of this season, I don't mind the expanded playoffs. But I wish they seeded all the non-division winners by straight W-L record. It seems kind of not right that Houston holds a higher seed than two teams with better records by virtue of finishing second in a weak division.

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#29 spycake

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 09:54 AM

 

In the context of this season, I don't mind the expanded playoffs. But I wish they seeded all the non-division winners by straight W-L record. It seems kind of not right that Houston holds a higher seed than two teams with better records by virtue of finishing second in a weak division.

You're not alone in that take, but with the extreme unbalanced schedules of 2020, these determinations may not be so clear.

 

Yes, Houston got 7 games against Texas, the worst record in the AL, but for example, teams in the AL Central got to play Pittsburgh, the worst record in the NL (Twins had them for 4 games). Houston also had to play 7 games vs LAD and SD, both of whom currently have better records than any team on the Twins schedule.

 

I won't dispute that Houston is probably weaker than the 3rd place team in the central, but they might actually be better than Toronto despite a slightly worse record -- B-Ref's "SRS" (Simple Rating System) puts HOU at 0.0 and TOR at -0.3.

 

And straight W-L record wouldn't necessarily be any more fair -- a really good top-to-bottom division would cluster around .500, while an average-ish team in a worse division could pad their W-L record to look better.


#30 stringer bell

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 10:27 AM

Interesting stuff with the tiebreakers. For example, Chicago is in actuality less than a game behind the Twins. If they gain a game, they are ahead of Minnesota. On the flip side, they lead Cleveland by less than a game. Same script, different characters. 

 

I don't know if the Twins really want to face one team over another, but winning the division would seem to be a worthwhile goal, guaranteeing a home first round playoff series. I would expect Oakland garners the #2 seed and Tampa nets the #1, but it wouldn't surprise me if Chicago grabbed #3 from the Twins. 

 

 


#31 spycake

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 10:38 AM

 

Min over Cle: 1

This might be the most relevant magic number for the Twins right now.

 

1 more Twins win, or 1 more Cleveland loss, and the Twins will be hosting a playoff series at Target Field.

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#32 IndianaTwin

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 10:56 AM

 

Not quite -- they are still even in the loss column and Oakland holds the tiebreaker over the Twins, so Oakland controls its own destiny for the #2 seed. If Oakland wins out, the best the Twins or any AL Central team can be is the #3 seed.

 

Of course, some here have suggested that the Twins may prefer the #3 seed (and facing the Astros in the first round) over the #2 seed (and facing either Cleveland or Chicago again).

 

Right on Oakland. I guess it's essentially four either way, the difference being that Oakland can get all four by themselves, whereas Minnesota can only supply three of their four themselves. 

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#33 IndianaTwin

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 10:58 AM

 

That seems about right, but I think Toronto is 5, 7, 8. (They can't finish 2nd unless they pass NYY, at which point it would be impossible for HOU to catch them too.)

 

But 1 more loss, and TOR will be locked into the #8 seed.

 

Another close "magic number":

 

1 more win for TB, or 1 loss for each of MIN and OAK, and TB is guaranteed the #1 seed.

 

And yep on Toronto as well. I'd compared them to NYY and to Houston, but not pieced the two together. 

 

And it's interesting that none of the nine teams still mathematically alive are playing each other. Five have a National League opponent. 

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#34 spycake

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 01:39 PM

 

And it's interesting that none of the nine teams still mathematically alive are playing each other. Five have a National League opponent. 

At least a few of those NL opponents are also fighting for playoffs spots (like MIN vs CIN, and NYY vs MIA).

 

The big head-to-head battle appears to be MIL-STL for 4 more games, including a doubleheader beginning today at 4:15 PM CDT.


#35 Nine of twelve

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 06:15 PM

 

And it's interesting that none of the nine teams still mathematically alive are playing each other. Five have a National League opponent. 

Wow, that's an interesting twist. It just makes the possibilities even more varied.