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Relevant magic numbers with tiebreakers accounted for

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#1 Nine of twelve

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 05:13 AM

After the games of 9/22:

 

TB over Min: 2

CWS over Min: 4

Oak over Min: 5

Min over Cle: 2

Min over NYY: 4


#2 stringer bell

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 10:21 AM

Am I right that the Twins hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees if Toronto (Buffalo) wins the next two games while Minnesota beats Detroit?

Also, if the three teams in the Central tie, that the Twins win the tiebreaker, with Cleveland second and the White Sox third?

#3 stringer bell

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 11:33 AM

I will elaborate on my three-team tie scenario from the post above. I think Cleveland may run the table for the rest of the regular season. First and foremost, they start Bieber and Plesac vs. the White Sox in the next two games, then they play Pittsburgh to close out the reason. Secondly, no one can get Ramirez out right now when it counts. Winning out would give Cleveland 36 wins. When Chicago finishes with Cleveland, they get the Cubs, who probably need a win or two to sew up their division. I doubt the White Sox sweep the Cubs, but if the Sox get two wins that would also give them 36 wins total. The Twins have only four games left, beating Detroit tonight and winning one or two versus Cincy gets them to 36-37, which might be enough.

 

It would also be nice if the Twins could wrap up the tiebreaker versus New York, in the still likely case that they play the Yankees in the first round. Given both the Twins and the Yankees' home records this year, it would be an advantage to play the Bronx Bombers at home. The Yankee opponents the rest of the way have plenty to play for, both Toronto and Miami have solid shots of getting in, but haven't clinched. 


#4 dougd

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 12:49 PM

 

Also, if the three teams in the Central tie, that the Twins win the tiebreaker, with Cleveland second and the White Sox third?

According to mlb.com: "If all of the tied clubs are in the same division and have, therefore, played against each other, then the team with the highest winning percentage in games among those three clubs is the top seed, followed by the team with the second-highest winning percentage in those games and then the third-highest."

 

The Twins are 12-8; the best Cleveland can do is 11-9; the best Chicago can do is 9-11 (if I have copied results correctly). Chicago could tie Cleveland for 2nd by winning the next two games.


#5 stringer bell

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 12:58 PM

 

 

 

The Twins are 12-8; the best Cleveland can do is 11-9; the best Chicago can do is 9-11 (if I have copied results correctly). Chicago could tie Cleveland for 2nd by winning the next two games.

If Chicago wins the last two games, they will clinch a better record than Cleveland, as will the Twins. 


#6 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 03:12 PM

 

Am I right that the Twins hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees if Toronto (Buffalo) wins the next two games while Minnesota beats Detroit?

You are right. In that case, both MIN and NYY would have 23-17 divisional records, so the tiebreaker would move to the next criteria: last 20 games divisional record. There, the Twins would be 12-8 and the Yankees 11-9. (Had they been tied in that too, it would move to last 21 games divisional record, then last 22, etc.)

 

But if the Yankees win just one of these next 2 vs Toronto, they will have the better divisional record and hold the tiebreaker over the Twins (although they may still trail the Twins, which would render the tiebreaker moot).


#7 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 08:51 PM

Assuming we close out the win tonight, Twins magic number for home field over the Yankees is down to 2.

White Sox will be even with us in the loss column, so they still control their own destiny in the division. But the pressure is on!

#8 stringer bell

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 09:18 PM

Done. I wonder what the odds are now for Chicago and the Twins to win the division.

If NY loses tomorrow, the Twins host a 4-5 series with the Yankees, correct? One more Twins victory clinches at least second place. If the Twins, Sox and Cleveland all tie at 36-24, the Twins win the Central.

#9 spycake

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 06:01 AM

Done. I wonder what the odds are now for Chicago and the Twins to win the division.

If NY loses tomorrow, the Twins host a 4-5 series with the Yankees, correct? One more Twins victory clinches at least second place. If the Twins, Sox and Cleveland all tie at 36-24, the Twins win the Central.


Fangraphs now has Twins at 51.5% to win the division, White Sox at 46.2%.

And you are correct, Yankees losing Thursday would be enough to secure home field over them, because the Yankees could then do no better than tie the Twins and the Twins would hold the divisional record tiebreaker.

And yup, one more Twins win clinches at least 2nd in the central. (Although if we went 1-2, and Yankees win out 4-0, we could still be 5th seed.)

#10 Nine of twelve

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 06:09 AM

After the games of 9/23:

 

TB over Min: 1

CWS over Min: 4

Oak over Min: 4

Min over CWS: 4

Min over Cle: 1

Min over NYY: 2


#11 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 06:39 AM

The Yankees threw Cole on Tuesday, presumably to get him ready for the 1st round playoff series.

 

Then they threw Tanaka last night, and, it didn't go well.Montgomery tonight to stop the bleeding.

 

The Whities threw Giolito last night and are throwing Keuchel tonight.

 

There are not a lot of quality SP left for the lead teams who have arranged their pitching rotations to fit the playoffs.Including the Twins, who might start Berrios on Friday, but for how many pitches?And the same with Big Mike on Saturday.Or, will they split Friday's game by throwing both?

 

So, anything can happen over the weekend and likely will. 

 

If Twins win Division, then we get Cleveland and Bieber in the 1st round?And that's better than Cole and the Yanks at home?Guess so.


#12 Road trip

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 09:51 AM

 

 

 

If Twins win Division, then we get Cleveland and Bieber in the 1st round?And that's better than Cole and the Yanks at home?Guess so.

 

It is also entirely possible that the Twins could draw the Astros if they win the division.It would all depend on whether they end up as the 2 seed or 3 seed.They are ever so slightly behind Oakland for the 2 spot at the moment.

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#13 spycake

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 10:01 AM

 

It is also entirely possible that the Twins could draw the Astros if they win the division.It would all depend on whether they end up as the 2 seed or 3 seed.They are ever so slightly behind Oakland for the 2 spot at the moment.

We'd have to pass Oakland entirely, as Oakland will hold the tiebreaker against us (better divisional record), but it's possible. Magic number of 5 (any combination of Twins wins or Oakland losses to equal 5).

 

Oakland has 1 more game with the Dodgers tonight, then 4 at home with Seattle including a doubleheader Saturday. The doubleheader should be a good opportunity for an Oakland loss, it can be hard to sweep.


#14 Dodecahedron

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 10:29 AM

Lots of discussion about home field v. the Yankees.

 

If the Twins win the division, they won't face the Yankees until the 3rd round, if ever. Plus, all of these games are on the road for everybody. All of the AL games will be played in SoCal; all of the NL games will be played in Texas.

 

They Twins are now in first place and if they take 2 out the 3 remaining games they will win the division.


#15 Road trip

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 10:47 AM

 

We'd have to pass Oakland entirely, as Oakland will hold the tiebreaker against us (better divisional record), but it's possible. Magic number of 5 (any combination of Twins wins or Oakland losses to equal 5).

 

Oakland has 1 more game with the Dodgers tonight, then 4 at home with Seattle including a doubleheader Saturday. The doubleheader should be a good opportunity for an Oakland loss, it can be hard to sweep.

 

Actually, I believe the Twins have to stay *behind* Oakland.The Astros will almost certainly slot in as the 6 seed (worst record among 2nd place finishers).The #3 seed (worst record among division winners) will play the 6-seeded Astros.If the season ended today (pasted from ESPN):

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE
No. 1 Rays* vs. No. 8 Blue Jays
No. 2 Athletics* vs. No. 7 Indians*
No. 3 Twins* vs. No. 6 Astros
No. 4 White Sox* vs. No. 5 Yankees*

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#16 nicksaviking

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 11:30 AM

Twins v Toronto is still a good possibility. 

 

I presume Toronto is the team every other team is hoping to play though.

 

If the Twins do get stuck with Bieber and Cleveland, it wouldn't be my favorite outcome, however, Bieber has only given up 14 ER all season but 5 of them were against Minnesota, so the Twins may be the last team Cleveland wants to face.


#17 spycake

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 11:51 AM

 

Actually, I believe the Twins have to stay *behind* Oakland.

No. 4 White Sox* vs. No. 5 Yankees*

Ah, good catch! I was in the mode of calculating how to pass teams, not stay behind them. :)


#18 spycake

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 12:02 PM

 

Lots of discussion about home field v. the Yankees.

 

If the Twins win the division, they won't face the Yankees until the 3rd round, if ever. Plus, all of these games are on the road for everybody. All of the AL games will be played in SoCal; all of the NL games will be played in Texas.

Not *all* of the games -- the first "wild card" round will be at the home ballpark of the #1-4 seeds. So home field could be pretty important for that round! (After that round, the higher seed will get to bat last more often in the bubble games, which could be a slight advantage too.)

 

 

They Twins are now in first place and if they take 2 out the 3 remaining games they will win the division.

Not quite. We are even with the White Sox in the loss column at 22, and the White Sox hold the two-way tiebreaker over us, so they can still control their own destiny -- if the White Sox win out, it doesn't matter what the Twins or Cleveland does, Chicago will win the division. Similarly, if the White Sox go 3-1 and the Twins finish 2-1, Chicago will also win the division.

 

Cleveland (24 losses) could come into play if the Twins or White Sox lose 2 or more of their remaining games.

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#19 spycake

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 12:19 PM

 

Twins v Toronto is still a good possibility. 

I don't know about "good possibility" -- Toronto is very likely to be the 8th seed, as they are 3 games behind #7 Cleveland with just 4 to play. Cleveland's magic number over Toronto is down to just 2. Toronto does have the benefit of playing the Orioles for the final 3 games but Cleveland gets to face Pittsburgh.

 

Similarly, the Twins are 2 games back of Tampa Bay for the #1 seed, with only 3 to play. Tampa also has the tiebreak over the Twins and White Sox, so basically Tampa Bay's magic number for the #1 seed over both teams is down to 1.

 

 

If the Twins do get stuck with Bieber and Cleveland, it wouldn't be my favorite outcome, however, Bieber has only given up 14 ER all season but 5 of them were against Minnesota, so the Twins may be the last team Cleveland wants to face.

Yeah, familiarity would be a benefit vs Cleveland or Chicago too (but that could also work against the Twins pitchers).


#20 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 04:41 PM

By far the two most likely scenarios are the Twins get the three seed and play the Astros, or the 4 seed and play the Yankees.I would bet a lot of money on those two scenarios versus any other combination.