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Edwin Jackson

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#1 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 03:57 PM

There aren't enough Edwin Jackson threads. Reports are that the Padres are in negotiations with him and a three year deal, per MLBTR. Doesn't sound like they are really close to a deal.. but if he gets those years for anything around the 13ish a year he's looking for..let the erupting from everyone commence.

#2 crapforks

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 04:17 PM

I wouldn't fault the team for going 3 @16-17/yr.

#3 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 04:53 PM

Last 3 years, Edwin Jackson has been an average pitcher. 100 ERA+
I wouldn't give him anything more than 7 million a year. Looking at a 3 year deal? Highest I'd go is 3yrs /19 Million Total.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 16 December 2012 - 04:56 PM.


#4 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 04:56 PM

3/19? You're crazy. He said 16-17/year. You're underestimating the value of an "average pitcher".

#5 minn55441

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 04:57 PM

I've never been that high on Jackson. His numbers don't jump off the page at you and the thing that really sticks out to me is that he has played for 6 teams in the last 5 seasons.

I still remember him as a Tiger and was really shocked when they traded him to the Diamondbacks. I remember wondering why they would trade a young starter with so much talent. He then threw the no hitter in Arizona and I thought again, they will hang onto this guy. There has to be a reason that teams move him after only one season. The talent is there. For me that explains why everyone keeps trading for him, but what is it that causes everyone to be in such a hurry to move him off their roster?

Will Gardy and Rick Anderson be the ones that finally create a home for the guy? I don't have the answer, I've never read anything that says they guy is a bad team mate. Perhaps someone else can shed a little light on his character.

Don't get me wrong. I understand why he has moved each step of the way, it just seems strange that teams wouldn't be more concerned with locking up the guy long term.

Edited by minn55441, 16 December 2012 - 05:02 PM.


#6 Twins best friend

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 05:09 PM

Edwin Jackson confuses me because I feel like I'm always hearing somebody talking about how electric his stuff is but it never seems to translate into the elite level of production that should go with that description. Seems like there's too much danger of overpaying in his case.

#7 notoriousgod71

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 05:11 PM

Last 3 years, Edwin Jackson has been an average pitcher. 100 ERA+
I wouldn't give him anything more than 7 million a year. Looking at a 3 year deal? Highest I'd go is 3yrs /19 Million Total.


Good luck signing a quality pitcher with that offer, JR.

#8 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 05:14 PM

3/19? You're crazy. He said 16-17/year. You're underestimating the value of an "average pitcher".


I'll spend money on Marcum, not this guy. 16/17 million a year? Let's put an average starting pitcher in the top 10% of player salaries. Yeah, that's not crazy.

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 05:25 PM

Last 3 years, Edwin Jackson has been an average pitcher. 100 ERA+
I wouldn't give him anything more than 7 million a year. Looking at a 3 year deal? Highest I'd go is 3yrs /19 Million Total.


You're joking, right? The average team spends about $8-9m per win. Edwin Jackson is worth somewhere between 3-4 wins a season but you only want to give him $7m a year?

Good luck signing anyone with that attitude.

#10 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 05:33 PM

I'll spend money on Marcum, not this guy. 16/17 million a year? Let's put an average starting pitcher in the top 10% of player salaries. Yeah, that's not crazy.


I think 16-17 a year is really steep but its more realistic then your 6 and some change a year low ball.

#11 snepp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 05:37 PM

The average team spends about $8-9m per win.


Eh? Where did 8-9 come from?

#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 06:12 PM

Eh? Where did 8-9 come from?


Read it awhile back... Was it a member of the Rays front office that said it? Can't remember.

And that should have read "per win above replacement", not "per win".

#13 Top Gun

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 06:36 PM

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports the Twins have signed Mike Pelfrey to a one-year, $4 million contract.


Related: Twins

Source: Jon Heyman on Twitte

#14 Twins Twerp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 06:51 PM

Read it awhile back... Was it a member of the Rays front office that said it? Can't remember.

And that should have read "per win above replacement", not "per win".


I'm glad you changed that because I was ready to show you some math. A 100 would then have a payroll of 800-900 million dollars a year. Wins above replacement makes more sense.

#15 snepp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 06:54 PM

Read it awhile back... Was it a member of the Rays front office that said it? Can't remember.

And that should have read "per win above replacement", not "per win".


There was a Toronto guy that threw similar numbers out there, but they don't make any sense when used with the publicly available valuation metrics.

#16 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 07:28 PM

There was a Toronto guy that threw similar numbers out there, but they don't make any sense when used with the publicly available valuation metrics.


Don't they, though? I know the number was around $7m for awhile but after this offseason, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that number has risen a fair amount in recent weeks.

Anyway, I'm not arguing the accuracy of the numbers... Just using them to point out that Edwin Jackson is worth a hell of a lot more than $6m and change a year.

#17 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:06 PM

You're joking, right? The average team spends about $8-9m per win. Edwin Jackson is worth somewhere between 3-4 wins a season but you only want to give him $7m a year?

Good luck signing anyone with that attitude.


Since when is a pitcher with a 4.10 ERA worth 10+ million? True I did underball a little bit, but if you haven't realized, I don't want him. Jackson is a #4 on a good team. I wouldn't even call him a 3 as far as performance goes.

#18 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:14 PM

You're joking, right? The average team spends about $8-9m per win. Edwin Jackson is worth somewhere between 3-4 wins a season but you only want to give him $7m a year?

Good luck signing anyone with that attitude.


3-4 wins per season? Where do you see that? 2 per year for the last 3 seasons. Just makes no sense to spend that kind of money when the average pitcher can do it for much less. Scott Diamond provides what Jackson can do and at a much, much cheaper price.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 16 December 2012 - 08:20 PM.


#19 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:15 PM

4.10 ERA is better than league average.. He's a number 3 on most teams and the best starter we have on this one...

#20 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:18 PM

Since when is a pitcher with a 4.10 ERA worth 10+ million? True I did underball a little bit, but if you haven't realized, I don't want him. Jackson is a #4 on a good team. I wouldn't even call him a 3 as far as performance goes.


Uh.. a #4 on a good team? I think your perception is a bit skewed here.

#21 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:19 PM

Uh.. a #4 on a good team? I think your perception is a bit skewed here.


[COLOR=#333333]Doug Fister, the #3 on the Tigers, was much better. Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants #3, is much better. Fister and Vogelsong are both notably cheaper too. Jackson was the #5 on the Nationals. The Rangers also had 3 pitchers better than Jackson. That's the 4 top teams.[/COLOR]

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 16 December 2012 - 08:26 PM.


#22 snepp

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:23 PM

Don't they, though? I know the number was around $7m for awhile but after this offseason, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that number has risen a fair amount in recent weeks.

Anyway, I'm not arguing the accuracy of the numbers... Just using them to point out that Edwin Jackson is worth a hell of a lot more than $6m and change a year.


I agree with your primary point, I was just quibbling over the dollars/per. At least as far as FG's is concerned, they've always shown free agent dollars-to-wins working out to that 4-5 million per win neighborhood.

#23 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:32 PM

Since when is a pitcher with a 4.10 ERA worth 10+ million? True I did underball a little bit, but if you haven't realized, I don't want him. Jackson is a #4 on a good team. I wouldn't even call him a 3 as far as performance goes.


[COLOR=#333333]Doug Fister, the #3 on the Tigers, was much better. Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants #3, is much better. Fister and Vogelsong are both notably cheaper too. Jackson was the #5 on the Nationals. The Rangers also had 3 pitchers better than Jackson. That's the 4 top teams.[/COLOR]


Welcome to free agency. And all three would arguably be the best starter on our staff.

#24 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:44 PM

Let's start naming all the free agents (and former FAs) pitchers that have better career ERAs than Edwin Jackson, shall we? John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, Jair Jurrjens, Scott Baker, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf, Joe Saunders, Carlos Villanueva, Chris Young, Freddy Garcia, Kevin Millwood. There's a lot and while I wouldn't take all of these guys over Jackson, think of how much cheaper so many of these will end up being. Oh, and Liriano is tied with Edwin Jackson's career 4.40 ERA. Seriously, pretty much all pitchers besides Correia and some of the true scrubs are the only ones I could find with worse career ERA's than Edwin Jackson.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 16 December 2012 - 08:51 PM.


#25 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:46 PM

Welcome to free agency. And all three would arguably be the best starter on our staff.


And yet the Twins aren't required to participate in getting ripped off.

#26 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 09:00 PM

3/19? You're crazy. He said 16-17/year. You're underestimating the value of an "average pitcher".


I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

#27 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 09:01 PM

I think you're discounting how much better Jackson has been the past few years. I don't know about you but I would pay the premium on him then the sale prices on Lowe, Wolf, Garcia, etc.

#28 edavis0308

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 09:02 PM

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

This isn't even worth debating if that is your approach to this subject.

#29 ThePuck

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 09:03 PM

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.



What's that number look like when you only look at players past their arbitration years?

#30 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 16 December 2012 - 09:07 PM

What's that number look like when you only look at players past their arbitration years?


Don't know, but there were young guys who were non-tendered arbitration that have better career ERA's and will sign at a fraction at Jackson's price. There are people that want to overpay Jackson by 5-10 million a year of what he's actually worth and it's ridiculous.