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Week in Review: Bumps in the Road

josh donaldson byron buxton jose berrios
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#21 spycake

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 05:37 PM

 

Yankees playing on the road for 4 may be what keeps them in 5th.Jays are still fighting to lock down wild card.

Jays are 95.6% to win a wild card spot, per Fangraphs. They're 4 games ahead of the next team with only 7 to play.


#22 spycake

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 05:45 PM

 

The Sox haven't fared all that well against playoff-caliber teams (last week's series against the Twins notwithstanding) so it's not inconceivable they could post a losing record against the Indians and Cubs, thus opening the window a crack for Minnesota.

Thanks for breaking it down!

 

It might not help the Twins that Cleveland has very little to play for -- they're virtually a lock for a road wild card seed (95.7% per Fangraphs). Likewise the Cubs are virtually a lock for their division title too (95.2%).

 

So it might be hard for the White Sox to have a really bad week.

 

(And on the flip side, Cincinnati is still very much on the edge, with only 51.9% playoff odds, so they could be playing hard next weekend against the Twins too.)


#23 spycake

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 06:00 PM

 

The Yankees are 31-22 and have seven games remaining (4 @ TOR, 3 vs. MIA). While it could change with a poor showing at Toronto (er, Buffalo), the Yanks will probably have the intra-division record tiebreaker over the Twins, so Minnesota needs to finish with a better record to bring the series to Target Field. 

As I noted in my post above, Toronto is already a virtual lock for a road wild card seed (95.6% at Fangraphs), so they may not push the Yankees as much as we'd hope!

 

The Marlins are a bit more uncertain but still fairly comfortable in the NL mix -- 83.9% postseason odds, and only about a 4.7% chance of getting home field.

 

Obviously these teams are still capable of beating the Yankees on any given day, but if they are looking ahead to the postseason themselves, it might make it a little less likely for the Yankees to have a really bad week.

 

 

 

If the Yankees go 5-2, the Twins need to go 4-1 or better.
If the Yankees go 4-3, the Twins need to go 3-2 or better.

These are not unrealistic outcomes, though! Should be fun scoreboard watching.


#24 spycake

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 07:29 PM

White Sox lose...

Yankees trail 10-1 after 6 innings vs Toronto...
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#25 stringer bell

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 06:37 AM

A good off day for the Twins, both the Yankees and White Sox lost. Still hope to win the division for the Twins and renewed optimism that they will get the first series at Target Field.


#26 spycake

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 06:53 AM

Fangraphs odds update!

 

Last night the Twins chance at winning the division improved from 10.6% to 16.2.% with the White Sox loss


#27 Trov

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 08:17 AM

 

Jays are 95.6% to win a wild card spot, per Fangraphs. They're 4 games ahead of the next team with only 7 to play.

Agreed they are, but until it is locked down they are still fighting.They took game 1 of the 4.Just because they are near lock does not mean they will not fight to beat the Yankees hoping to back their way in.My point was they will not be resting or setting up rotation like others may if they are locked in a spot. 


#28 spycake

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 09:05 AM

 

Agreed they are, but until it is locked down they are still fighting.They took game 1 of the 4.Just because they are near lock does not mean they will not fight to beat the Yankees hoping to back their way in.My point was they will not be resting or setting up rotation like others may if they are locked in a spot. 

Actually those odds I quoted understated it -- Toronto was 99.2% to make the playoffs before yesterday's game (I was just quoting their odds of 3rd place wild card). Up to 99.3% now. Their magic number is down to 3 -- any combination of 3 Toronto wins or Seattle losses will lock up a spot. With 6 games remaining for both teams, that's about as close to locked up as you can get, without officially being locked up. :)

 

And I think Toronto is already resting / setting up rotation a bit. Last night Toronto started Matt Shoemaker in the series opener vs the Yankees. Shoemaker had been sidelined for a month, but the Jays want him back for potential postseason usage. After 3 innings, leading 5-1, they followed him with T.J. Zeuch making just his 2nd MLB appearance this year since being recalled. Not exactly resting, but maybe not exactly fighting really hard either?

 

Tonight they are starting Tanner Roark vs Gerrit Cole. Roark, with a 6.41 ERA and 7.71 FIP, is questionable to make the postseason rotation, but Toronto has a few sub-optimal starters to sort through this final week. Again, maybe not a starting assignment we'd see if their playoff aspirations were more in doubt.


#29 insagt1

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 09:36 AM

Two things bother me: 1) Falvey's comments on how 'it doesn't matter' if they don't get home field. Nice to talk bravado, but lets be brutally realistic. Does anyone think it really doesn't matter if the Twins get to play that first round at home (where they are very good) or at Yankee stadium (where Yanks are very good and Twins are hopeless) We probably can't beat them anyway...but playing at home would be a huge advantage if they are to have any chance.Falvey is in LaLa land if he thinks Twins will be competitive at Yankee Stadium...especially if it can be avoided. Play every game to win. Period.

2) Donaldson...cannot disagree more with his comments. What he did (whether it was the umps pettiness or not) was totally selfish and was totally 'I' 'Me' centered, with no regard for his team...struggling in a must needed game against their nearest opponent. They needed him in the lineup for his bat potential and his 'd'. How can a teammate possibly think getting tossed for something foolish can ever endear himself to his other teammates..seriously. He screwed up and was trying to rationalize and justify a very selfish thing. I find nothing noble or even justifiable about it. A real bad look. Maybe..if it was game 90 in a 162 game season you could overlook it. But not right now.

 

OK, end of rant.


#30 USAFChief

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 12:44 PM

Two things bother me: 1) Falvey's comments on how 'it doesn't matter' if they don't get home field. Nice to talk bravado, but lets be brutally realistic. Does anyone think it really doesn't matter if the Twins get to play that first round at home (where they are very good) or at Yankee stadium (where Yanks are very good and Twins are hopeless) We probably can't beat them anyway...but playing at home would be a huge advantage if they are to have any chance. Falvey is in LaLa land if he thinks Twins will be competitive at Yankee Stadium...especially if it can be avoided. Play every game to win. Period.
2) Donaldson...cannot disagree more with his comments. What he did (whether it was the umps pettiness or not) was totally selfish and was totally 'I' 'Me' centered, with no regard for his team...struggling in a must needed game against their nearest opponent. They needed him in the lineup for his bat potential and his 'd'. How can a teammate possibly think getting tossed for something foolish can ever endear himself to his other teammates..seriously. He screwed up and was trying to rationalize and justify a very selfish thing. I find nothing noble or even justifiable about it. A real bad look. Maybe..if it was game 90 in a 162 game season you could overlook it. But not right now.

OK, end of rant.


I doubt Falvey really believes it doesn't matter, but what is he supposed to say? "We're doomed unless we get home field"?

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#31 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 08:45 AM

 

Fangraphs odds update!

 

Last night the Twins chance at winning the division improved from 10.6% to 16.2.% with the White Sox loss

Fangraphs odds update!

 

Twins division odds up to 30.3% after last night.




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