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Article: Can Brian Dozier Make the Opening Day Roster?

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 06:45 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...ning-Day-Roster

#2 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:05 AM

Nice job explaining both parts of the issue. I think Brian Dozier needs to continue to develop as a player so sending him to Rochester for a few months makes a lot of sense. I have always seen Jamey Carroll as a stop gap at shortstop until Dozier is ready. I believe Carroll will take over at second base and Casilla will become the untility guy. I sure hope Nishioka does not make the roster out of spring training because he looks lost on the field.

#3 Thrylos

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:07 AM

To make the team he has to beat both Nishioka and Mike Hollimon and both of them, especially Hollimon have the upper hand now. Even if he beats them, I just don't see him making the team before September and sitting on the bench or PH/PR/spot starting, instead of playing every day in Rochester. If there are injuries mid-season (hope not), he might make the team that way.
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#4 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:14 AM

If Nishioka doesn't make the team as the utility, that's fine with me. Who is the bench then? Hughes : Plays 1B/2B/3B Catcher(like they really need 3) OF ???

#5 Thrylos

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:26 AM

If Nishioka doesn't make the team as the utility, that's fine with me.

Who is the bench then?
Hughes : Plays 1B/2B/3B
Catcher(like they really need 3)
OF
???


Plouffe will be there, so there are 2 spots. Maybe a Catcher and an IF, maybe not
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#6 Harrison Greeley III

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:33 AM

He's going to be 25 this year. June 1 is certainly more logical but I suppose I'm having a harder time caring about service time before free agency here as opposed to him being 22. In addition, the Twins love arbitration buy-out deals as well which in many ways negates that issue. I also have really no problem with him skipping AAA. It's not like he would be stealing a ton of value from the guy he would be replacing as the alternative is Alexi Casilla.

#7 2wins87

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:37 AM

I wouldn't start him over Casilla yet, he's still a prospect who needs to continue to develop, which is why I also wouldn't put him in Nishioka's backup role. If Nishioka proves completely futile then I'd give Holliman a shot before rushing Dozier to the majors. I also have to note that before last season he wasn't seen as much of a prospect, so while he may turn into an above average mlb shortstop, we really haven't seen enough from him yet for that to be likely. So I'm hoping he'll show us something more in AAA this year.

#8 jlovren

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 07:51 AM

I think having him play a year (or most of it) in AAA and proving the numbers from 2011 were not a fluke is probably best.

#9 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:04 AM

Why do guys who are already in their mid 20s have to spend most of a year in AAA? If Dozier is ready, get him playing time. Figure it out. If he's better than Nishioka, would you rather have him helping, occasionally PH and playing in the field, and helping the big club? I sure would. The system is so void of upper talent fans have to suffer through these has-beens and never-weres at the higher levels. And they drag moving guys up year after year.

#10 Harrison Greeley III

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:16 AM

I wouldn't start him over Casilla yet, he's still a prospect who needs to continue to develop....


So roll with the certified dud with marginal value over a replacement player?

Dozier's not a top prospect. He's just a guy who had a great 2011 with a shot at making a team that is probably going to be lousy in 2012. If he can plug a hole for some time till Levi Michael is ready to go then that's awesome. I'm just having a hard time seeing the depth of the downside of giving him a shot and seeing if he can swim at this level.

#11 Steve Lein

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:21 AM

Dozier has an MLB future, but he's the type of player that needs to prove what he is at AAA first. There's a reason he wasn't talked about that much before last year. Look up anything you can read from National prospect guys or scouts, and they'll say he's a utility guy, not a solid-starter. So let's hope he proves them wrong and temper our expectations a little. If/when he's on the Twins this year, I'd bet it's at 2B, and not SS.

#12 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:23 AM

So roll with the certified dud with marginal value over a replacement player?

Dozier's not a top prospect. He's just a guy who had a great 2011 with a shot at making a team that is probably going to be lousy in 2012. If he can plug a hole for some time till Levi Michael is ready to go then that's awesome. I'm just having a hard time seeing the depth of the downside of giving him a shot and seeing if he can swim at this level.


I fully agree. Casilla will probably get hurt again, per his norm.

So do the Twins decide to sink/swim with Luke Hughes and Nishioka at that time, or work Dozier in? I like the power Hughes has, but he's yet to really put it together at the bigs. Time's running out. I wish Nishioka would just give up. Huge mistake.
Play Dozier. Why wait ANOTHER year. Find out what you have now.

#13 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:26 AM

Dozier has an MLB future, but he's the type of player that needs to prove what he is at AAA first. There's a reason he wasn't talked about that much before last year. Look up anything you can read from National prospect guys or scouts, and they'll say he's a utility guy, not a solid-starter. So let's hope he proves them wrong and temper our expectations a little. If/when he's on the Twins this year, I'd bet it's at 2B, and not SS.

Why?

Just because the Twins kept him in AA over and over again, like they've done with Parmelee and Benson, and probably with Herrmann this year? There is no rule that says a guy has to play in AAA first.

I am hopeful by midseason the Twins are realistic about what's going on, deal some vets for help(Doumit/Carroll/pitchers) and truly rebuild.
They've blown the best years of Mauer and Morneau by not having a good enough supporting cast. Get the kids ready before they're both too old to help.

#14 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:36 AM

The only positive about having Dozier/Benson/Parmelee spend time in AAA(hopefully Herrmann as well) is that they get to spend time with the Twins' next hitting coach. :D

#15 jjswol

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:46 AM

I think Dozier has zero chance of making the Twins roster out of spring training. Ryan brought in Carroll to play short and there is no reason to believe that will not happen. I know that Carroll has not hit this spring but he is a veteran and his lack of hitting in the spring will not sway the Twins from their chosen path. I can see Dozier getting his shot later in the season once the Twins have fallen out of the hunt. The fact that Nishioka is around and is making good money also works against Dozier. What do you do with Nishioka if he can't make the big club? Send him to Rochester where he gets in Dozier's way? I can't see any way that the Twins release Nishioka who is just starting year 2 of a 3 year deal and the club is desperate for middle infielders that can play with any consistency what so ever.

#16 roger

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:46 AM

Good morning Seth, I see that most fans didn't consider Dozier a prospect until this past year. Well, they should have. Yes, he was drafted as a college player so he is a bit older. After the draft in 2009, he hit .353 average in 53 games at Elizabethton. Right there is when he should have been a prospect on everyone's radar, he certainly was on mine. In 2010 he hit .278 average at Beloit then didn't see a big drop when moving up to the pitcher friendly FSL where he hit .274 and took more walks (44) than strikeouts (41). I look for him to begin his season in Rochester until one of the CC's gets injured. Then he will come up and assume the starting shortstop job which he should keep for many years.

#17 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 08:57 AM

Good morning Seth, I see that most fans didn't consider Dozier a prospect until this past year. Well, they should have. Yes, he was drafted as a college player so he is a bit older. After the draft in 2009, he hit .353 average in 53 games at Elizabethton. Right there is when he should have been a prospect on everyone's radar, he certainly was on mine. In 2010 he hit .278 average at Beloit then didn't see a big drop when moving up to the pitcher friendly FSL where he hit .274 and took more walks (44) than strikeouts (41).

I look for him to begin his season in Rochester until one of the CC's gets injured. Then he will come up and assume the starting shortstop job which he should keep for many years.


Dozier was a leader on his team in college, and helped them get to the CWS. Played thru injury to help. Been following him since drafted, and have always considered him a guy they should pay more attention to.

#18 Thrylos

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 09:13 AM

Part of me thinks that there is just a lot of hype about Dozier. I just hope that he can perform and justify it. Here is a comparison: Brian Dozier: age 24 season: A+/AA: .320/.399/.491 9 HR, 56 RBI Mystery Twins' infielder: age 23 season: AA/AAA: .309/.369/.524 18 HR, 61 RBI Any idea who the mystery infielder is? (and this is not like 20 years ago). Just to place Dozier's performance/age in line with others in the system, before we start anointing him as the SS of the future...
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#19 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 09:18 AM

jjswol - they aren't going to let Nishioka get in Dozier's way (I don't think). Dozier is going to play whereever he goes. Ed - I'm not disagreeing with the fact that he doesn't have to play in AAA. I'm fine with him jumping to the big leagues if he's going to play every day. The difference between Dozier (and Herrmann) and Parmelee/Benson is that Dozier and Herrmann have just a 1/2 season at AA whereas Parmelee/Benson have almost 2 full years. But, as I mentioned, Mauer had just a halfseason at AA as well, and hit about .340 in it when they made room for him by trading AJ. Mauer was 20 at the time. Dozier was 24. So I'm fine with them bringing Dozier up as a starter now. The great qualities that we heard back then about Mauer are the same things we're hearing now about Dozier. No one is putting Dozier in Mauer's class, but there are some similarities. I specifically did not mention Carroll's spring training numbers because they're meaningless at this point. Dozier's hitting just .231 and that's after his 2-3 game. Casilla's hitting over .300, I think. None of that matters right now, so I didn't write that as a reason either way. Roger - I liked Dozier earlier in his career, but not as much as you. The .353 in E-Town for a four-year college guy is fairly meaningless. Where I started liking him more was with the other thing you mentioned... I like that he is a guy who walks as much or more than he strikes out.

#20 Steve Lein

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 09:26 AM

Just because the Twins kept him in AA over and over again, like they've done with Parmelee and Benson, and probably with Herrmann this year? There is no rule that says a guy has to play in AAA first.


Well, last year was the first time he's ever played at AA, so don't know what you're getting at here. He needs to prove it in AAA because he's NOT a sure thing. Joe Mauer was a sure thing, and he's the only guy I can think of who skipped AAA altogether and started the season on the big league club after spending the prior year in AA. 2011 was by far Dozier's best season as a pro: improved his career best batting avg. on a non-rookie league team by .042 points, best OBP by .047 pts, best Slugging % by .137 points... There's not really a track record for stardom here...

#21 Steve Lein

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 09:35 AM

And as for my "Prove what he is" statement, it literally means he needs to be playing every day somewhere to "prove what he is". You're not going to find out if he's a starter by sitting him on the bench with the MLB club, because he's certainly not beating out Carrol or Casilla in Spring Training.

#22 whydidnt

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 09:52 AM

I've never understood the Twins stubbornness to stick with mediocrity. It seems like we have these discussions every year. The Twins make a decision to give a job to a mediocre player such as Casilla or Carroll, and then refuse to consider a change when there may be a player either producing better, or with a higher upside. It's one thing to say there is no sense in rushing Dozier because we have a combo of Jeter-Cano at SS-2B, but it's quite another to stunt a guys growth behind Carroll -Casilla. Seriously if the guy is ready then play him, you aren't benching a future all-star! I'm not sure if he is ready, but I do know Gardenhire liked him out of Spring Training last year and he has done nothing but shine since. The Twins offense is already stunted when you consider almost 1/2 the lineup has little to no power. Adding a guy with even slight potential like Dozier makes the entire lineup better.

#23 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:10 AM

Veteran presence. Stabilizing force in the middle. Last year was so ugly, there was a need to get a veteran. I guess. Personally, the band-aids they put on this team won't make them a winner. The moves don't add up to improving this team. They'll be better defensively, but unlike the preaching by radio/TV(especially) the Twins won't win a lot of low-scoring games. So at some point they have to decide how to improve this team. And in a hurry. That window of opportunity for Mauer/Morneau is closing. If it has not already.

#24 gil4

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:22 AM

Any idea who the mystery infielder is? (and this is not like 20 years ago).


Without looking, I'll guess Casilla, with a back-up guess of Tolbert.

#25 Mr. Ed

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:25 AM

Without looking, I'll guess Casilla, with a back-up guess of Tolbert.


HAH

Between the 2 of them they may have 9 minor league HRs

Looks like a decent line. Reminds me of Valencia type numbers.

#26 ben

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:29 AM

Hughes? He's not a shortstop though, and barely a second baseman.

#27 twinstalker

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:41 AM

I'm thinking it's the Giants 3Bman we picked up in the minor league phase of the rule V draft. Bucher? No-look.

Part of me thinks that there is just a lot of hype about Dozier. I just hope that he can perform and justify it. Here is a comparison:

Brian Dozier: age 24 season: A+/AA: .320/.399/.491 9 HR, 56 RBI
Mystery Twins' infielder: age 23 season: AA/AAA: .309/.369/.524 18 HR, 61 RBI

Any idea who the mystery infielder is? (and this is not like 20 years ago).

Just to place Dozier's performance/age in line with others in the system, before we start anointing him as the SS of the future...


Edit: Hughes is a good guess, too. Thanks, Ben.

Edited by twinstalker, 13 March 2012 - 10:43 AM.


#28 Thrylos

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:47 AM

Hughes? He's not a shortstop though, and barely a second baseman.


Hughes. And he is above average second baseman
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#29 dave_dw

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:58 AM

Just to place Dozier's performance/age in line with others in the system, before we start anointing him as the SS of the future...


Nobody's expecting Derek Jeter here, but another Jason Bartlett would be nice.

#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 11:00 AM

Nice article on Dozier by Brian Dozier by FSN's Tyler Mason: http://www.foxsports...774&feedID=5930

"Obviously, in all (reality), I'm not going to make the team out of spring training. But at the same time, just continue to work hard," Dozier said. "If it's Double-A or Triple-A, which I haven't been told yet — I'm assuming Triple-A — either one in our organization is pretty good. So I'm just looking forward to it and continuing to get better."