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It’s Time to Call Up Alex Kirilloff

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#21 MNT1996

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 03:10 PM

 

This is an awfully definitive statement considering he's a 22 year old who OPSed .750 at AA last season and has never played at a higher level than that... Color me skeptical.

 

Jeffers and Kirilloff had similar BAs at AA last season and Jeffers has held his own pretty well. Sure Kirilloff's SLG was lower than Jeffers' was, but judging by his numbers from previous minor league seasons he definitely has pop. Jeffers also never played higher than AA. 


#22 twins1095

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Posted 18 September 2020 - 09:45 AM

 

Jeffers and Kirilloff had similar BAs at AA last season and Jeffers has held his own pretty well. Sure Kirilloff's SLG was lower than Jeffers' was, but judging by his numbers from previous minor league seasons he definitely has pop. Jeffers also never played higher than AA. 

 

Kirilloff played his last season less than a year removed from a hamate bone--an injury notoriously known for sapping power for a year post-surgery. This injury generally does not have a long-term effect on power potential, but in virtually all cases has a significant short-term effect even after the injury is healed and the player has returned to play.

 

Here's an article: https://www.beyondth...the-pitchfx-era

 

Here's the conclusion:

 

Overall, it appears that with time, player's who succumb to a hamate injury will find themselves back to previous power numbers upon their return to play, though it will probably take roughly a full season of at bats to do so. Of course a number of other factors could predispose a player to not bounce back quite as quickly or as robustly—age of injury, previous injury history, and even the time it took for correct diagnosis and treatment approach all play potential roles—but compared to other upper extremity injuries, the outlook for a full return to health and hitting power with the hamate fracture is generally promising.

 

Kirilloff's low-power numbers are not only not surprising, but expected. In addition, if you look at his second half splits versus his first half splits as he got further removed from the surgery... predictably his power numbers really began to improve. Kirlloff, as a hitter, is a couple of magnitudes better than Jeffers.

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#23 jimbo92107

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Posted 18 September 2020 - 11:54 AM

The reason Alex Kirilloff is a top prospect is because his approach at the plate is top notch, even better than some current members of the Twins. We have seen his scatter chart, which shows almost no trends to let opposing teams make defensive shifts. He is a high-average hitter with very high contact rate, has gap power with occasional dingers. Closest comp on the team would be another Luis Arraez, with a bit more pop. When healthy, Arraez has been an excellent table setter that also can knock in a guy on second base. Could the Twins use another guy like that? Um, yeah. They have really missed Arraez's bat in the lineup these last few games. A few extra hits might have made a difference.

 

A counter argument is that Kirilloff might scuffle at the plate initially, which is possible. But scuffling is less likely when you've got a high-contact approach at the plate. Arraez was hot pretty much right away, and his scatter chart is not as scattered as Kirilloff's. 

 

Table setter, RBI getter. Twins could use another bat like that, and his defense should be good enough to give Rosy and Kep a day off on the grass. I'd bring him up yesterday. 

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#24 twins1095

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Posted 18 September 2020 - 12:09 PM

 

The reason Alex Kirilloff is a top prospect is because his approach at the plate is top notch, even better than some current members of the Twins. We have seen his scatter chart, which shows almost no trends to let opposing teams make defensive shifts. He is a high-average hitter with very high contact rate, has gap power with occasional dingers. Closest comp on the team would be another Luis Arraez, with a bit more pop. When healthy, Arraez has been an excellent table setter that also can knock in a guy on second base. Could the Twins use another guy like that? Um, yeah. They have really missed Arraez's bat in the lineup these last few games. A few extra hits might have made a difference.

 

A counter argument is that Kirilloff might scuffle at the plate initially, which is possible. But scuffling is less likely when you've got a high-contact approach at the plate. Arraez was hot pretty much right away, and his scatter chart is not as scattered as Kirilloff's. 

 

Table setter, RBI getter. Twins could use another bat like that, and his defense should be good enough to give Rosy and Kep a day off on the grass. I'd bring him up yesterday. 

 

This is just not at all true in terms of a comparison to Arraez. It's actually one of the worst takes I've seen here in awhile. Prior to his hamate bone injury, Kirilloff had 71 XBH in 131 games including 7 triples and 20 HRs.

 

He also really doesn't walk a lot, his BB% in the minors has been between 4-8%. He doesn't strike out a lot either, his strikeout rate has been in the mid-teen percentage wise. If you're looking for a comparable based on that it's Eddie Rosario.

 

I would actually compare Kirilloff a lot to a young Eddie Rosario who came up and hit 18 2Bs, 15 3Bs (led the league), and 13 HRs in 122 games. Basically, Rosario had gap power that eventually developed into HR power. Or I guess Joe Mauer if you want to go there. 

 

Luis Arraez has singles power and is a really patient hitter. That's not Kirilloff at all. Like at all at all.


#25 Dodecahedron

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 10:15 AM

If I were in charge, I would never call up someone new in a bonkers season like this one unless I had no alternative. I would even sign or make a trade for a placeholder instead of calling up a prospect.


#26 spycake

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 10:22 AM

 

If I were in charge, I would never call up someone new in a bonkers season like this one unless I had no alternative. I would even sign or make a trade for a placeholder instead of calling up a prospect.

Why? Only difference from a team standpoint is service time is prorated.

 

Can't see much difference for the players whether they are working out with a group in St. Paul or traveling with the group in Minneapolis.


#27 4twinsJA

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 04:03 PM

It will be time to bring some young players up to the Twins next year. There are some older players on the Twins this year that under performed. Just was such a odd year this year to bring someone up.