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LT contracts for current star position players

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#21 TFRazor

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 07:36 AM

 

Bobby Bonilla

Aren't they paying him through 2031 or something ridiculous?

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#22 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 11:14 AM

 

this one is still questionable

28.2 WAR over his contract.Yes he's in decline, but this contract turned out more favorably then the Mauer one.


#23 SteelDodo

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 12:23 PM

 

Who knows Donaldson could be the same for us.I am all for signing players in their prime, but signing them for what they did with other clubs is not good financial sense. 

 

 

I don't share the same fear over Donaldson. Yes, he probably will decline somewhat, but there are several factors that makes his deal more palatable than many of the others listed.

 

1. He is an upgrade with his bat AND his defense. Even when one starts to decline, he'll still provide value (unlike Chris Davis). If his bat decreases, he will still play great D at 3B. Likewise, if his D decreases, he can shift to 1B or DH.

2. This is a 4-5 year deal instead of an 8-13 year deal.

3. At the time of the deal, the Twins were in a "win now" mode, and foreseeably will be for the duration of the deal. Much of their core will still be with the team for the next ~3 years (Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Maeda, Berrios, Polanco, etc.). I agree that it is absolutely a waste of money to have an aging/expensive veteran on a rebuilding & losing team (e.g. Davis on the Orioles or Cabrera on the Tigers), but the Twins will likely be in contention for next few years and the duration of his deal. There is a good chance that the Twins will be in a massive rebuild in ~4 years. Until then, I'm glad they are putting all the chips in for the next few years.


#24 mikelink45

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 06:37 PM

 

I don't share the same fear over Donaldson. Yes, he probably will decline somewhat, but there are several factors that makes his deal more palatable than many of the others listed.

 

1. He is an upgrade with his bat AND his defense. Even when one starts to decline, he'll still provide value (unlike Chris Davis). If his bat decreases, he will still play great D at 3B. Likewise, if his D decreases, he can shift to 1B or DH.

2. This is a 4-5 year deal instead of an 8-13 year deal.

3. At the time of the deal, the Twins were in a "win now" mode, and foreseeably will be for the duration of the deal. Much of their core will still be with the team for the next ~3 years (Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Maeda, Berrios, Polanco, etc.). I agree that it is absolutely a waste of money to have an aging/expensive veteran on a rebuilding & losing team (e.g. Davis on the Orioles or Cabrera on the Tigers), but the Twins will likely be in contention for next few years and the duration of his deal. There is a good chance that the Twins will be in a massive rebuild in ~4 years. Until then, I'm glad they are putting all the chips in for the next few years.

I have no problem with your response.I am not necessarily against the Donaldson signing, but I am not happy with year one.His health seems like an issue and yes he will diminish in the field the next couple years and no he will not take 1B from Sano. 


#25 mikelink45

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 06:38 PM

 

Buster Posey

what are his stats this year?


#26 mikelink45

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 06:41 PM

 

It's the exact same AAV as Davis', just one year longer.And at least the Cubs got positive value out of it--the Orioles are literally going to end up paying $161 Million dollars for a guy worse than whatever 4A outfielder or waiver wire castoff they could have plugged in.Out of 50 qualified 1B, he is the worst.If you expand to 500 PA's over the last 5 years, it's 77 players; Davis is 77th.

 

For right fielders, there are amazingly the exact same number of players in the last 5 years with at least 500 PA--77; Heyward is 18th.The Heyward contract is awful to be sure, but the Davis one is hideous.

good warning for the Twins, I am already questioning the Kepler contract as well as having him hit first in the lineup.


#27 SgtSchmidt11

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Posted 18 September 2020 - 12:40 PM

 

what are his stats this year?

He's also not getting paid this year.


#28 cardsfan

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Posted 20 September 2020 - 06:56 AM

what are his stats this year?

We had some trolls saying our GM giving our catcher Molina 3 years for $60 million was a bad contract. Molina won his 10th Gold Glove two years ago and last year the Cards won 91 and the second round and there was no chance they make the playoffs with a mediocre catcher as he handles pitchers quite well. This is the last year of the contract so he will likely go year to year with incentives like Adam Wainwright.

It is not coincidental that the Cardinals have won a lot of playoff rounds and games and averaged nearly 91 wins this century with only 2 catchers with 14 gold gloves with Mike Matheny having one with the Giants as Molina took over.

You lost Joe Mauer for some years as he suffered from concussions and that hurt. The catcher is the quarterback in baseball. He needs to be the smartest man on the field.

The Giants in decline with Posey in decline not surprising.
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#29 mikelink45

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Posted 20 September 2020 - 08:33 AM

 

We had some trolls saying our GM giving our catcher Molina 3 years for $60 million was a bad contract. Molina won his 10th Gold Glove two years ago and last year the Cards won 91 and the second round and there was no chance they make the playoffs with a mediocre catcher as he handles pitchers quite well. This is the last year of the contract so he will likely go year to year with incentives like Adam Wainwright.

It is not coincidental that the Cardinals have won a lot of playoff rounds and games and averaged nearly 91 wins this century with only 2 catchers with 14 gold gloves with Mike Matheny having one with the Giants as Molina took over.

You lost Joe Mauer for some years as he suffered from concussions and that hurt. The catcher is the quarterback in baseball. He needs to be the smartest man on the field.

The Giants in decline with Posey in decline not surprising.

Posey not playing this year is not the only reflection on his value - last year he had a WAR of 0.6 a dramatic reduction.Catchers are difficult to judge and Posey has been a great one, but might not be any more.The Cards have really done well, but they are also smart refusing the long term expensive contract like the one Pujols wanted.Losing him seemed bad, but in the end was a good thing. 


#30 cardsfan

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 08:52 PM

Posey not playing this year is not the only reflection on his value - last year he had a WAR of 0.6 a dramatic reduction. Catchers are difficult to judge and Posey has been a great one, but might not be any more. The Cards have really done well, but they are also smart refusing the long term expensive contract like the one Pujols wanted. Losing him seemed bad, but in the end was a good thing.

The Cards lucked out. They offered Pujols a big contract. David Price was going here. Heyward with his 13 Hrs had a better deal than the Cubs offerrd who won a WS in spite of his contract. Giancarlo rejected being traded here to St. Louis.

Looking at stupid sabremetrics, the Cards signed Fowler for $80 million who has troubling playing 130 games in a season. Lucked out in not having to pay Seattle for Mike Leake's last year. Don't give players who are .500 pitchers or a one-time All-Star with no power or high OBP long term contracts. No extensions unless there is a likely possibility of player leaving. Thank God the Cards nursed Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright through pitching injuries as our only two power pitchers. I wonder if Wainwright can come back next year on his 3rd one year contract. Not sure. Molina a 1 year contract. Those two wouldn't come back if the team wasn't in contention which it has been the entire century. When the Cards had their one losing season in 2007 they were only one game and a half out around September 7.

The key is developing pitching, finding pitching like KK from S. Korea, trades except Mulder for Dan Haren with the extension of Mulder ill-advised, rehabbed pitchers like Carpenter. Scherzer wanted to come to St. Louis, but, $210 million seemed steep.
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#31 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 05:05 PM

 

good warning for the Twins, I am already questioning the Kepler contract as well as having him hit first in the lineup.

 

Yeah, this is an overreaction.Since 2016 when Kepler became a (mostly) full time player, he is 10th in MLB for WAR amongst right fielders, at 10.8.Thats about 40% more than Heyward at 7.7; the Cubs have paid Hayward $115M, while the Twins have paid Kepler less than $14M over the same timeframe.

 

The Cubs still owe Heyward $69M over the next three years, while the Twins will only need to pay Kepler $22.75M for the next 3 years (including a buyout if they don't pick up the 2024 option).Kepler has certainly struggled this year, but that's compared to last year--he's been worth 0.9 WAR in 43 games, which means he's worth about 3.1 WAR over 150 games.That's absolutely a first division regular, and a fantastic value.

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#32 a-wan

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 05:23 PM

 

I see that Yelich is still effected by a broken kneecap from last year and has a longterm contract now through 2028. It always raised an eyebrow that he had 11 HR before the break in 2018 and then was in contention for the triple crown.

Cabrera of the Tigers contract is a disaster. He had a chance of 2 triple crowns in a row then his tail off at 34. What a way to get into the HOF as $180 million wasted on a washed up player.

Albert Pujols: From one interview when he said he faced Octavio Dotel it seemed like he admitted without saying it that he was 2 years older than listed. Thank God the Angels thought he would lead them to the promise land with one playoff appearance. I'm not such a homer to realize who his trainer was or that his head seemed bigger than when he was a rookie. I know he hit 660, but, he had 449 HRs through 2011 when he was slipping.

Joey Votto: Just turned 37. The Reds didn't learn with the Griffey contract. $82 million left counting the $7 million buyout. Votto after 2011 doesn't scare any pitchers as he strikeouts out a lot as well as walking. There is no way at age 37 he should be voted in the HOF with 1031 runs and 958 RBIs regardless of his OBP. You are talking about the poster boy for how bad modern stats can bring about a huge contract when the bottom line is scoring and driving in runs and saving runs.
Griffey was injury proned, but, Votto is laughable.

Then there is Robinson Cano.

Others still active?

Marty Brennaman is that you and your Votto disdain?


#33 mikelink45

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 08:16 PM

 

Yeah, this is an overreaction.Since 2016 when Kepler became a (mostly) full time player, he is 10th in MLB for WAR amongst right fielders, at 10.8.Thats about 40% more than Heyward at 7.7; the Cubs have paid Hayward $115M, while the Twins have paid Kepler less than $14M over the same timeframe.

 

The Cubs still owe Heyward $69M over the next three years, while the Twins will only need to pay Kepler $22.75M for the next 3 years (including a buyout if they don't pick up the 2024 option).Kepler has certainly struggled this year, but that's compared to last year--he's been worth 0.9 WAR in 43 games, which means he's worth about 3.1 WAR over 150 games.That's absolutely a first division regular, and a fantastic value.

 

Marty Brennaman is that you and your Votto disdain?

Heyward is a bust - not a good comparison.  

 


#34 Monkeypaws

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 09:28 PM

I haven't been paying close attention to other teams this season, but I saw Cabrera clubbed a couple 3 run homers vs. the Twins the other day, and am watching a good KC-Detroit game tonight, and he's 3 for 5 with 3 RBIs, so I thought maybe he had righted the ship and was good again. A trip to Baseball Reference showed me the truth:

 

His cumulative power stats from 2017 to the present: 40 HRs, 153 RBIs, comparable to his MVP seasons. He had over 500 ABs in 2 of those seasons.

 

The Tigers must pay him 94 million the next 3 years. Ouch.

 

And we complained about Mauer. 


#35 Trov

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Posted 25 September 2020 - 08:26 AM

Overall most long term deals turn out to be bad for the team and good for the player.Early on teams were willing to accept bad end of deal for good output first few seasons.Now with luxury tax(essentially salary cap) teams are regretting the bad long term deals.That is why so many 30 year old FA were not getting the 7 to 9 year deals they were in the past.  

 

When you get the 26 to 27 year old FA like Machado, Betts, Trout, and others they will still get long term deals, but at 30, good luck to those players, unless rules change in next CBA.Now, there is merit to signing young player to long term deal going into FA years.You buy out the expensive FA years by paying more on front end of arbitration years.Players that were 26 or 27 first time FA used to sign the long term deal with opt out at 30, expecting to opt out and sign another long term deal for more money, but now I doubt any 30 something opts out expecting a bigger deal coming. 


#36 cardsfan

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Posted Yesterday, 04:06 AM

Overall most long term deals turn out to be bad for the team and good for the player. Early on teams were willing to accept bad end of deal for good output first few seasons. Now with luxury tax(essentially salary cap) teams are regretting the bad long term deals. That is why so many 30 year old FA were not getting the 7 to 9 year deals they were in the past.

When you get the 26 to 27 year old FA like Machado, Betts, Trout, and others they will still get long term deals, but at 30, good luck to those players, unless rules change in next CBA. Now, there is merit to signing young player to long term deal going into FA years. You buy out the expensive FA years by paying more on front end of arbitration years. Players that were 26 or 27 first time FA used to sign the long term deal with opt out at 30, expecting to opt out and sign another long term deal for more money, but now I doubt any 30 something opts out expecting a bigger deal coming.

Trout, Pujols, Ohtani and that great fiielding SS and one playoff appearance and no wins in that playoff appearance.

#37 Trov

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Posted Yesterday, 09:27 AM

 

Trout, Pujols, Ohtani and that great fiielding SS and one playoff appearance and no wins in that playoff appearance.

This just backs up why I have been against long term deals for big money for any player, because very seldom can you build a team fully through FA, they are good to supplement, but so often teams that try to will keep throwing money into the fire fixing the mess of the last contract hope the next one will be good.