[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='Nick Nelson'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp']Quality Starts are one of the most useless stats in the game. Any stat that can discard a superior start (9 IP, 4 ER) and reward an inferior one (6 IP, ER) should not be used for anything, ever.[/QUOTE]
Actually, 6 IP/ER would earn a Quality Start. I actually kind of like the stat as long as it's not taken too seriously.[/QUOTE]
Grah, my phone sabotaged me.
9 IP, 4 ER is not a quality start. 6 IP, 3 ER is a quality start.
Which is the better start? QS is way too abstract and scattershot to ever be of much use. The creator of the stat just picked an arbitrary number and used that as the basis of... what, I don't even know. Just the fact that pitchers can go deeper into games with a better ERA and not get awarded the stat shows just how useless it is. Or that the bullpen can blow the "Quality Start" for the pitcher by letting a runner from first score and the stat is taken away from the starter. Or a half dozen other ways that it arbitrarily awards the stat and not others. It's like the save stat, except even dumber.[/QUOTE]
Until they come up with a name and track the 9 IP 4 run start. The QS will have to do. It may be an arbitrary number but 6IP with 3 runs or less is a good performance and a tracked benchmark. If... As a pitcher you reach 6 innings with less than 3 runs... You did good... Put a one in the column. Even if 6IP and zero runs is better... You still get that 1 in your column just the same.
So... In situations... When you are trying to show that Correia isn't as horrible as being portrayed... it shows that he gave you "at least" a decent start 57% of the time and I can point out how it compares to Greinke.
I think I understand your point Brock and yet don't fully understand it at the same time.
Is QS perfect? Not at all and for the reasons that are listed. But it isn't that wrecked either... I just went thru all of Dickeys and Greinkes start in 2012.
I found only one instance of either pitcher losing a QS past the 6 inning due to runs allowed late by himself or a bullpen. That was Greinke against the Twins on June 17. The Twins put 3 runs on Greinke with two outs in 7th after Greinke held the Twins to one earned thru 6. Thats 67 starts between them and only 1 example of a lost QS.
May 4... He gave up a pair of homers to Cozart and Stubbs in the 7th inning after reaching a quality start thru 6...
Another example of corrupted data would be the quick hook.
June 19... Correia against the Twins. Correia has thrown 5 innings of shutout ball. With a 2-0 lead... He retired Span to start the inning... Walked Revere who then stole second followed by a Willingham single. Hurdle then put Watson in to face Morneau who wiggled out of it and no quality start for Correia despite throwing 5.1 and no runs.
So yeah... There is the potential of false data but one thing is true... 6IP 3ER or less... Weather arbitrary or not. Is a traceable benchmark.
Name a stat that doesn't have flaws? They all do. That's why you should use them in combination with your eyes and never use them as some form of proof of anything.
BTW... I encourage everyone to go thru Correia's starts one by one last year. You will feel better.
Edited by Riverbrian, 12 December 2012 - 08:25 AM.