At best Correia can be Pavano 2010 - 2011 and at worst Blackburn 2012 - current. So, with a lot of luck, good defense (did I say luck), and catchers that can frame pitches, he could pitch to a #3 level, but likely we only hope for a solid #5 with an ERA no higher than 4.75 this season and sub 5 next.
I really think a "solid #5" is too much to hope for. Over the last three years, the only starting pitcher with a WAR lower than Correia's 0.8 is Nick Blackburn (0.5). His home run rate was almost average last year, but in 2011 it was 1.40, which is high even compared to the Twins cadre of gopherballers. Correia gives up way too many hits, and his strikeout rates are about as pathetic as Pavano's.
I cannot believe how utterly stupid this move was; signing Correia to a one year, MLB minimum deal would've been a questionable move. Giving him an extra year and $5 million per season is sheer insanity.
Agree. Seen him pitch here in the burgh, and he's no darling.