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Playoff Rotation

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#1 Trov

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Posted 02 September 2020 - 08:43 AM

I know we just ended a 6 game losing streak and the sky was falling.However, we are still 94.4 percent chance of making playoffs based on current standings and matchups.Yes, that is not division winning like our goal should be, but that does not change the playoffs for first round will be same a 3 game match.This may be in a bubble.  

 

That being said, I am thinking who should be our top 3 pitchers in postseason, then who should be number 4.Of course this may be altered over the coming weeks depending on injury, and performance.To this point, Menada should be 1 in my opinion.He has been best starter all year.Number 2 is much harder to decide.Dobnak has been up there, but he lacks K level stuff to work out of jams, and if he is missing or defense falters he will give up runs quickly.As much as I like him and his story, he is not my number 2.  

 

That brings me to Berrios, Hill, Penida, Odo.All have merits for 2 and 3.Berrios when on can shut down any offense and has high k rates.However, he has not been consistent this year and who knows what you will get.If game 2 is the possible final game do you give him the ball with that pressure?I do not know, maybe he will put up strong starts down the line and make this moot.

 

Hill, has had much success in the post-season in past, but he has been struggling this year overall with his command walking a ton.When he is on hitters do almost nothing against him and he is battle tested, but you never know what you will get with him.I am leaning toward more of second round starter, provided we get there. 

 

Penida, when on is possibly our best pitcher, but he has only 1 start now in over a year, looked good against a good lineup.We were all planning on him being game 1 starter last year until he got the suspension.As long as he keeps putting up decent starts I would lean toward him for game 2.  

 

Finally, Odo was a great pitcher for half a year and has shown he can be a top end guy.However, he throw a lot of pitches, never feels dominate out there and almost like he gets by on smoke and mirrors.You cannot argue with his numbers, but he is a fly ball pitcher and depending on where they are playing and who that would affect my thoughts for sure.  

 

Of course this is early and injuries may happen, where we are playing may affect things as well.Experience is important because playoffs are a whole different game.In the three game set game 1 will be so important to win because it will affect how game 2 is played so much.You will have room for error in that game if you are up 1.  

 

Let me know who you think should be top 2 and 3 pitchers. 


#2 dex8425

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Posted 02 September 2020 - 10:05 AM

No real use speculating now. #2, #3 and #4 will be whoever is pitching better in three weeks. Berrios' stuff is just too good for him to not figure it out and see better results. Dobnak is a gamer and has only one hiccup bad outing this year. I'd probably trust Pineda over Odo if both pitch well down the stretch, just because Jake will have had so few outings. His FA walk year has been very disappointing. 

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#3 ashbury

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Posted 02 September 2020 - 10:05 AM

I think Innings Per Start gives as good a picture as any, of our starters' effectiveness, their manager's trust, and how I would rank them if the post-season started tomorrow.

 

Maeda: 42.2 / 7 = 6+

Berrios: 36 / 7 = 5.1+

Dobnak: 34.2 / 7 = 4.9+

Hill: 16 / 4 = 4.0

Odo: 10 / 3 = 3.3+

 

Pineda has one start with 6 innings, so, very promising. He might slot anywhere, even #1.

 

Bailey has one start and 5 innings, and might be on the shelf for the rest of the year.

 

You could team up Hill and Odorizzi for a game. I'd start Hill, as the likelier of the two to pitch really deep into a game, if he exceeds expectations and you decide to ride him longer, with the basic game plan to hand it over to Odorizzi after four. Odo for me is a four-inning pitcher, a gamer who can give you an excellent craftsmanlike result while he is in but consumes too many pitches and wears himself out, so there's zero chance he's the guy who by himself brings you to the point in the game where your best relievers take over.

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A mistake made more than once starts to look like a decision.


#4 ToddlerHarmon

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Posted 02 September 2020 - 01:20 PM

 

I think Innings Per Start gives as good a picture as any, of our starters' effectiveness, their manager's trust, and how I would rank them if the post-season started tomorrow.

 

Maeda: 42.2 / 7 = 6+

Berrios: 36 / 7 = 5.1+

Dobnak: 34.2 / 7 = 4.9+

Hill: 16 / 4 = 4.0

Odo: 10 / 3 = 3.3+

 

Pineda has one start with 6 innings, so, very promising. He might slot anywhere, even #1.

 

Bailey has one start and 5 innings, and might be on the shelf for the rest of the year.

 

You could team up Hill and Odorizzi for a game. I'd start Hill, as the likelier of the two to pitch really deep into a game, if he exceeds expectations and you decide to ride him longer, with the basic game plan to hand it over to Odorizzi after four. Odo for me is a four-inning pitcher, a gamer who can give you an excellent craftsmanlike result while he is in but consumes too many pitches and wears himself out, so there's zero chance he's the guy who by himself brings you to the point in the game where your best relievers take over.

 

Agreed that Hill and Odo are optimal in short doses. I feel like the FO intended that for all the starting pitchers: as good as anyone for five innings, but cheaper and easier to obtain than the elite pitchers who go deep into games. Maeda, Pineda, and Berrios seem the most likely to surprise with a long start, so they would top my rotation, though I would put Hill ahead of Berrios to shut down a tough lineup or a lefty-heavy lineup

 

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#5 twinbythebay

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Posted 02 September 2020 - 02:58 PM

It's really going to depend on how September plays out. Each of our starters should have 4-5 more regular season starts, but (barring injury) I would be shocked if both Berrios and Maeda weren't in the top 3. Given how Pineda looked last night and how he looked down the stretch last season, I'd say he has the inside track to take that third spot. That leaves the #4 spot (if needed) for either Dobnak, Odo, or Hill. Dobnak has performed the best of the three so far this season, Odo might have the best raw stuff of the three, and Hill is the playoff-tested vet. I will say that this rotation inspires far more confidence going into the postseason than last season's rotation.

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#6 Number3

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Posted 03 September 2020 - 08:07 AM

20 games left, 12 at home. Twins are 14-4 at home this year with cardboard fans and digitized noise. Best home record since Dome Days. I just hope there is a playoff rotation but chances look good now that the lineup is retaking shape. The 8 runs last night in a must win were good to see.


#7 GNess

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Posted 03 September 2020 - 10:32 AM

Of course, the pitching performances over the next few weeks and the playoff opponent match-ups are variables that would possibly impact these decisions.

 

Ignoring those two elements I would select in order:

 

1. Maeda

2. Berrios

3. Pineda

4. Hill

 

Dobnak / Odo available for long relief efforts, if any of the above can't get past the 3rd/4th inning.

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#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 September 2020 - 11:51 AM

Maeda, Berrios, and whoever else looks good at the end of September.

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#9 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 03 September 2020 - 12:15 PM

 

Of course, the pitching performances over the next few weeks and the playoff opponent match-ups are variables that would possibly impact these decisions.

 

Ignoring those two elements I would select in order:

 

1. Maeda

2. Berrios

3. Pineda

4. Hill

 

Dobnak / Odo available for long relief efforts, if any of the above can't get past the 3rd/4th inning.

 

 

This is what I would say and most likely what the Twins are thinking as well. 

 

Odo would be in there if he had been healthy this year. But as of now, I would say he gives almost nothing this season. He, as of right now is one of the last ones to even make a postseason roster unless we can see he has it going forward. He has a way to go to get back into form.

 

Berrios as well. He can be that #2 playoff starter, but I would be quick with the hook with him if he doesn't improve. Also, with his stuff, he "could be" an excellent choice as a bullpen guy to give you 2 innings or so if the starter that game doesn't have it. 

 

Hill too. Quit walking guys or you won't get a start in the playoffs. Even if he does, leash needs to be short if he is having trouble locating.

 

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#10 FlauerPauer

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Posted 04 September 2020 - 07:25 PM

Maeda has been the team's best pitcher so he's gotta be my game 1.

 

I would like to think that Jose will finish strong and take the mound for game 2, but my gut tells me it's going to be Pineda. 

 

Jose for game 3.

 

Best of 5, I would like Maeda, Pineda, Berrios, Maeda/Hill piggyback, Pineda/Berrios piggyback.