Posted 08 December 2012 - 04:09 AM
[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='Oxtung'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....
Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.[/QUOTE]
I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.
So to sum it up:
Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.[/QUOTE]
Dude, he is a knuckleball Pitcher.XFIP/FIP and several others don't apply to him as much as the other 99.5% of pitchers who aren't knuckleballers. Most of the time when hitter did put bat on ball it was with very weak contact. Hell even with that said his xFIP and FIP were 3.27 last year, add in his 2.73 ERA and k/bb rate and that is top of the rotation stuff all the way. Granted his strand rate was 5% higher then normal, but at the same time his HR% was high as well, what does this say about 2012? It wasn't a fluke for Dickey. Also his two years prior were pretty damn good as well!
As far as knuckleballers not aging well, I'm not sure what you mean. Wakefield pitched effectively into his 41 year season, and wasn't even that god awful in his 42 age year. Phil Niekro had a 3.09 ERA when he was 45! His brother Joe had a sub 4.00 ERA his 40th year and pitched to 43.
Also as I mentioned in the other thread:
Lannan has a better Career ERA then Dempster, and a better past 3 full seasons ERA then Dempster. This isn't to say Dempster has no value or Lannan is better, it just illustrates that Dempster at 3 years and no prospects is not better then Dickey at 3 years and some prospects.
Give me Dickey any day of the week over Dempster, especially if it only costs 26 mil over 2 years and only 1 of our top 8 prospects (+ some other pieces)[/QUOTE]
Knuckleballers vs. FIP
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
Why exactly do these not apply to him? Does his knuckleball change how many HR's, BB's or k's he has? If it was true that knuckleballers were exempt from this stat it would show up in other knuckleballers stats. Here are career ERA and FIP numbers of a few knuckleballers as well as Dickey's 3 year average:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 250"]
From these numbers I think it's safe to say FIP works for knuckleballers. If FIP works then so does WAR since WAR is based on FIP.
Any time a pitcher's K/9 rate increases from 6 to 9 for one season that is the definition of flukey (which was what I said...not that his season as a whole was flukey).
Wakefield and the Niekro brothers aged well, good for them. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens aged well too. These anectdotes mean little with regards to how other pitchers will perform as they age.
Lannan vs. Dempster vs. Dickey
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
Looks like Dempster and Dickey are pretty comparable with Lannan a distant 3rd in everything except ERA. These numbers include Lannan's pretty decent 2009 but excludes Dempsters good and Dickey's terrible 2009. If you include Dempster and Dickey's 2009 the numbers start to skew Dempsters direction.
Dempster vs. Dickey
As I said before, you are certainly capable of having your own opinion. However, nothing you have presented has changed anything in my mind. Advanced metrics show Dickey and Dempster are similar quality pitchers over the last few years. Seemingly the only major difference is in their ERA's which is not a good predictor of future success. They are asking for similar length contracts with similar dollar amounts but Dickey would require some good prospects as well. The Twins are in semi-rebuild mode, at a minimum, so trading prospects doesn't make much sense to me.