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Yet another RA Dickey thread...

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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:03 PM

Now there are a few more facts coming to light in the case of RA Dickey. Basically he wants a two year extension for $26 million dollars. Which means his contract would be as follow:

2013: 5 million
2014: 13 million
2015: 13 million

Honestly? That isn't to bad all things considered, especially coming for a guy with a Cy Young.

Now, this of course means he won't come cheaply. If you are the Twins do you consider trading away a package of prospects for him? (You will have to trade at least one of the "top 8" and at least two more top 20 guys, which still might not be enough)

Thoughts?

#2 mikeee

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:11 PM

I never see the Twins mentioned in the rumours for Dickey.
The cost doesn't seem all that bad.

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:12 PM

I'd give Dickey more than that for a two year deal.

#4 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:19 PM

I never see the Twins mentioned in the rumours for Dickey.
The cost doesn't seem all that bad.


It's pretty rare to see the Twins mentioned in many rumors to be honest. The Span deal came together rather quickly as did the Revere one (even though the Phillies were trying to get Revere for months)

There was also a lot of speculation that the Twins are/were the mystery team in the Sanchez sweepstakes. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Ryan wasn't trying to get Dickey (unless the asking price was way to high currently)

I'm not sure what the hell the Mets are doing, 2/26 is more then fair, but they are in drastic need of fixing their terrible farm system.

#5 Top Gun

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:19 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

#6 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:21 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:26 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.


Hasn't anybody told you that they moved the start of Spring Training to December 15th, Dave?

#8 Oxtung

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:35 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.


I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

#9 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:24 PM

I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

That wasn't his point at all actually...
To your point:
The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young?

Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we?
Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA
Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL)

This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen.

You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration.

Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best.

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:36 PM

I wouldn't read too much into Dempster's limited time in the AL last year.

Dickey means one top and one near-top prospect, probably. I would rather just spend the same amount of money without depleting the system.

#11 Chance

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:48 PM

If only we would have kept him years ago... Wishful thinking.

#12 Rosterman

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 07:21 PM

Dickey will age gracefully as a knuckleballer. He has already aged. Not sure how much older he can get and he'll just remain competent or downrite ugly. Plus, you need someone to catch him. Dickey is a bargain for his 39th year. There is no need for the Mets or anyone to sign him to an extension until they see how he repeats. Especially at those prices. Dempster MIGHT have more of an upside, but that third year IS the killer. If I had to choose between Dempster, Myers or that other reliever that used to start, I would take the other two over Dempsey, for probably a lot less. The Mets can rid themselves of Dickey and get a prospect (high) or two, they should go for it. The new team doesn't have to extend the contract. Everything works against Dickey, except that he marvelously WON a Cy Young somehow. Who would've ever thought.
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#13 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:23 PM

Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?


The correct question is why trade your future for a guy who will be both 40 and a FA when that futue is the present?

#14 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:39 PM

Dickey will age gracefully as a knuckleballer. He has already aged. Not sure how much older he can get and he'll just remain competent or downrite ugly. Plus, you need someone to catch him. Dickey is a bargain for his 39th year. There is no need for the Mets or anyone to sign him to an extension until they see how he repeats. Especially at those prices. Dempster MIGHT have more of an upside, but that third year IS the killer. If I had to choose between Dempster, Myers or that other reliever that used to start, I would take the other two over Dempsey, for probably a lot less. The Mets can rid themselves of Dickey and get a prospect (high) or two, they should go for it. The new team doesn't have to extend the contract. Everything works against Dickey, except that he marvelously WON a Cy Young somehow. Who would've ever thought.


If I'm the Mets, I give Dickey his $26m and shut up. If he comes close to repeating, he can demand a 3/$39m or higher and get it. If he's merely good-to-very-good (which he has been for three years running now), he's worth over $13m a year. If he's anywhere close to his 2012 numbers, he's a $20m or better player.

For the Mets, $26m is a very manageable risk. Hell, it's a manageable risk for the Twins when you're talking the kind of upside Dickey can bring. Over the past three seasons, Dickey is a ten win player.

#15 Oxtung

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:48 PM


I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

That wasn't his point at all actually...
To your point:
The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young?

Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we?
Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA
Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL)

This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen.

You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration.

Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best.


Here are some other stats to compare:

Last 3 Seasons:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]

Season/Player
FIP
xFIP
WAR


2010/Dickey

3.65

3.75

2.8



2010/Dempster

3.99

3.74

3.2



2011/Dickey

3.77

3.95

2.5



2011/Dempster

3.91

3.70

2.7



2012/Dickey

3.27

3.27

4.6



2012/Dempster

3.69

3.77

3.3



Dickey Average/Total

3.56

3.66

9.9



Dempster Average/Total

3.86

3.74

9.2


[/TABLE]


Seems pretty comparable to me.

Dickey is a few years older than Dempster so even if knuckleballers age better they aren't starting from the same place. Personally I think they both will be putting up 5+ ERA's in 3 years.

To my larger point however, in comparison to the Twins starting rotation last year they are very similar pitchers. Both of them are DRASTICALLY better than what we had. Considering that we as fans mostly agree 2013 isn't going to be a contending year and that we should be looking to stockpile young talent:

Why would you give up good prospects for Dickey when you could just sign Dempster?

#16 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:00 PM

Dickey and Dempster are similar right now but Dickey is set up to age much more gracefully.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:34 PM

They aren't similar at all. Over the last 3 years dickey has a signicantly lowe ERA. And he appears to only be getting better with his mastering of the knuckleball. Dickey is literally doing something no other player in the history of baseball has been able to do. You certainly don't have to worry about his arm wearing down, since he is missing the tendon anyways! As far as the rest of his "health" the dude just climbed Mount Kilimanjaro last year then won the Cy Young, I don't see his body breaking down signifcantly anytime in the next 3 years. Dempster? Not so much.

Give me the high upside guy who can have a decent shot at being an ace anyday. The twins have plenty of guys who can possibly be middle of the rotation type guys: diamond, Worley, Gibson, hendriks. We need a guy who can go out and pitch a 9 inning one hitter any given night.(like dickey did Two games in a row last year)

#18 spycake

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:37 PM

Hicks, Mastroianni, and Benson for Dickey -- I'm calling it now. Who needs a CF?

#19 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 09:45 PM

I would offer: Arcia, Boer and Hendriks in a heartbeat.

#20 Mark_RM

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 10:14 PM

As tempting as getting Dickey would be, the Twins are a year or two away from trading away any top prospect for major league talent in their 30s.