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Goldstein Ranked the Twins' system 22nd

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#1 Thrylos

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 06:25 AM

his full list is here. Royals are 5th, Indians, Tigers and White Sox below the Twins.

Still think it's a little low
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#2 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 07:26 AM

Feels a little low, but I can't pretend to know the other team's systems real well or anything, so I can't do a comparison. Most have had them between 14 and 18.

#3 dave_dw

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 07:41 AM

From what I picked up from Goldstein's podcast and the Baseball America podcast, the Twins' system has a lot of young, athletic players with lots of potential, but also with a lot of risk. With a solid season from these young guys in 2012, this system could rank near the top next year.

#4 whydidnt

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 09:38 AM

Yes - he says "System At a Glance: Boring drafts have led to a boring system, but the prospects at Low-A this year, including slugger Miguel Sano, gives them some upside." I think this tends to agree with the points made in the previous thread about the lack of talent in the upper level of the Twins system. The good news is that most the teams in our division are worse off, and there will always be questions about how long the Royals can hold onto all the talent they have in the system.

#5 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 09:47 AM

Yes - he says "System At a Glance: Boring drafts have led to a boring system, but the prospects at Low-A this year, including slugger Miguel Sano, gives them some upside." I think this tends to agree with the points made in the previous thread about the lack of talent in the upper level of the Twins system. The good news is that most the teams in our division are worse off, and there will always be questions about how long the Royals can hold onto all the talent they have in the system.


Last few drafts - Hunt was a bust, Hicks is developing slowly, Gutierezz (sp) was considered a reach by some and still hasn't developed into what we want. Gibson and Bashore got hurt, Wimmers got spacey. Our later round picks, with the exception of Rosario, haven't really been exciting. I liked last years draft but Micheal is the only one who might move quickly. Most of our drafts have been well received at the time but Goldstein's criticism isn't unfounded.

#6 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 09:59 AM

"I liked last years draft but Micheal is the only one who might move quickly." I would expect Boer, Williams and Summers to move just as quickly.

#7 nicksaviking

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 10:00 AM

It would be hard for anyone to rate an organization high when there is next to no pitching talent on the farm. If Gibson had not gotten hurt and remained a top 30 propect, the Twins rankings likely would have been quite a bit higher. In the next couple years when the team strarts flipping Span, Revere and Willingham to make room for Benson, Arcia and Hicks, they hopefully will be getting young arms with strikeout potential. With good reason, those are the type that turn into top 100 prospects. Not the control pitchers the Twins are currently known to stock up on.

#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 10:06 AM

I expect no one to move quickly, this is the Twins after all. Now, some might move quickly, but I would never expect it. But I'd say the Twins are in the 15-20 spot, meaning 22 is not an unrealistic ranking.
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#9 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 10:11 AM

The Twins aren't at all afraid to push college pitchers. There are many examples of college pitchers who move up three levels in on year.

#10 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 11:32 AM

The Twins minor league system could even be worse after the Twins take Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Devin Marrero with the #2 overall pick. Mark Appel will be gone and the chance to get a #1 pitcher will somehow find a way to elude the Twins again. I'm so sick of hearing about Miguel Sano. He has good power but struggles to make contact. He can't field to save his life and most likely is not 18 but more like 22. There was a ton of hype regarding Henry Sanchez (39th 1st round pick in 2005) and he never even made to the big show. Sano might turn into a great hitter but is most likely a DH at best for the Twins.

#11 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 11:45 AM

More evidence is needed to prove Sano is not 18. We should not just assume.

#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 11:45 AM

That's true, Seth, they are more willing to push college pitchers. I don't see that with any of the three you listed, though, not three levels this year. Like I said, it happens, but I don't expect it to happen.
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#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 12:23 PM

If Wimmers starts at Fort Myers, he could end the year at Rochester. Wimmers getting back on track and Gibson returning healthy changes the list significantly. If the three Seth mentions and Hudson Boyd have good years this year, the pitching depth moves from the middle and back of the prospect list to the top half.

#14 righty8383

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 12:48 PM

If Wimmers starts at Fort Myers, he could end the year at Rochester. Wimmers getting back on track and Gibson returning healthy changes the list significantly. If the three Seth mentions and Hudson Boyd have good years this year, the pitching depth moves from the middle and back of the prospect list to the top half.


That and they will probably target a lot of thier early picks on pitchers in the upcoming draft.

#15 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 01:15 PM

Pitchers, catchers, and third basemen, hopefully.

#16 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 01:24 PM

More evidence is needed to prove Sano is not 18. We should not just assume.


Such as? And at this point, what would it matter?

#17 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 01:30 PM

Such as? And at this point, what would it matter?


No, I'm saying that we should start by taking his word. FJ is talking about him being 22. Also, of course there is a difference!

#18 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 01:32 PM

Actually, I should ask . . . is there any evidence, whatsoever that he isn't 18, or is the speculation rooted in ridiculous generalizations about a group of people based on a few examples of players lying about their ages?

#19 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 01:52 PM

Shanewahl, Do you ever think for yourself or just let other people do it for you. Sano lives in a country (D.R.) where they don't record births in hospitals. This of course means he does not have a birth certificate to prove how old he is. Every scout has stated Sano is the biggest 18 year old propsect they have ever see. Sano could say he is 16 years old right now and nobody would be able to prove he is wrong. He had about $3 million reasons to lie about his age before the Twins signed him. Well in my world 2 t 2 still equals 4. See Livan Hernadez for more information. In regards to the comment "Who cares." The Twins should care they shelled out big money thinking Sano was only 18 years old and still developing. Now if Sano was 22 he would not be as valuable a prospect because he is in Beloit and 4 years older.

#20 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 02:18 PM

Shanewahl,

Do you ever think for yourself or just let other people do it for you. Sano lives in a country (D.R.) where they don't record births in hospitals. This of course means he does not have a birth certificate to prove how old he is. Every scout has stated Sano is the biggest 18 year old propsect they have ever see. Sano could say he is 16 years old right now and nobody would be able to prove he is wrong. He had about $3 million reasons to lie about his age before the Twins signed him. Well in my world 2 t 2 still equals 4. See Livan Hernadez for more information.

In regards to the comment "Who cares." The Twins should care they shelled out big money thinking Sano was only 18 years old and still developing. Now if Sano was 22 he would not be as valuable a prospect because he is in Beloit and 4 years older.


First, your post seems to suggest lying is the norm, not the exception. Second, the Dominican Republic does issue birth certificate and Sano has one. Thirdly, Sano was intensely investigated about his age. The tests included a dental examination that calculated his age. It's the same test ICE and CBP use to test young people caught at the border. The Twins had MLB investigate Sano before they signed him. MLB, the Pirates, the Twins and bone tests have all concluded that Sano has not lied about his age.

Edited by gunnarthor, 12 March 2012 - 02:33 PM.


#21 StormJH1

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 02:49 PM

I think 22nd feels about right to me, and here's why... I get the sense that a lot of Twins fans are increasingly optimistic about this farm system. In some respects, that's fair. One of the knocks on them has traditionally been that they don't develop any power hitters, and with Miguel Sano as a signature prospect, we have one best potential power bats in the minors. Any time you can point to one guy who is doing everything right, it makes you feel pretty good about the overall product. But then again, look at the difference a year makes. Everyone said Aaron Hicks was a legit prospect, and he has done NOTHING in the minors so far. Kyle Gibson, who fell to us because of injury risks, is now...injured. Then there's guys like Parmalee and Benson who will be "over-ripe" by the time they stay in the majors, but I have high hopes for both of them. Beyond a few key guys, however, it thins out extremely quickly. Most of the guys that supposedly make this a good farm system are guys like Sano and Oswaldo Arcia, who are so far away from the majors that you expect them to get better. And the biggest problem, for me at least, is the absolute dearth of pitching talent, particularly power arms. Where are they? Granted, we have a big draft coming up with all of the compensatory picks we received. The Twins could go heavy on pitching and middle infielders, and I might feel better by the end of the season. But until then, I think it's a very unbalanced system with a few bright spots, but lacking in too many areas to fully restock the major league team from within.

#22 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 03:13 PM

Shanewahl,

Do you ever think for yourself or just let other people do it for you. Sano lives in a country (D.R.) where they don't record births in hospitals. This of course means he does not have a birth certificate to prove how old he is. Every scout has stated Sano is the biggest 18 year old propsect they have ever see. Sano could say he is 16 years old right now and nobody would be able to prove he is wrong. He had about $3 million reasons to lie about his age before the Twins signed him. Well in my world 2 t 2 still equals 4. See Livan Hernadez for more information.

In regards to the comment "Who cares." The Twins should care they shelled out big money thinking Sano was only 18 years old and still developing. Now if Sano was 22 he would not be as valuable a prospect because he is in Beloit and 4 years older.


Exactly, there is no evidence just speculation and over generalization based on a FEW instances of lying. I have found that relying on evidence is more helpful for "thinking for yourself" than speculation with shoddy facts (as gunnarthor points out).

#23 Jim Crikket

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 04:00 PM

I saw Sano as early as his first Spring Training with the Twins in 2010, when he was a couple of months short of his 17th birthday. He was a big kid then, for a baseball player. But anyone who would state it would be unlikely he was really not quite 17 years old has never spent any time around high school football teams. He had grown more by the time I saw him last spring, which indicated to me that he was likely, indeed still a "growing boy," rather than a full-grown 20-year-old. But as Seth said, at this point, I'm not sure I see why it matters. Whether he's currently about to turn 19 or about to turn 22, he's still going to open at Beloit and if things stay on track, probably make his Twins debut in 2015-2016. At that time, he'll be only 22 years old. But what if he's really 25? No big deal... that's still not old for a rookie and either way, the Twins are going to have him under their control for the next several years. It will only be at that point... when he's up for his first "big" contract... that his true age may be a factor. Let me put it this way... does anyone think the Cardinals would give a damn if it turned out Albert Pujols really did understate his age? Hell, no. The only team that might care about that is the Angels, who are already overpaying for his declining years, not the team originally signed with. Similarly, the Twins don't care at this point if Sano lied about his age or not... as long as nobody can prove he lied. In fact, the Twins have NO incentive to question his age, at this point. First, if he's proven to have lied, it could cost him his visa and cause all sorts of legal issues that could very well threaten his entire career with the Twins. Also, I seem to recall that the Twins get a fifth year to decide to put him on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft, by virtue of him being 18 or under when he was signed. If it turns out he was 19 or more, they'd have only four years. The extra year may not turn out to be a big deal if he's on track to the Big Leagues by 2015, but if he's not, that extra year might be nice to have. In the end, it's true that the Twins likely would not have spent $3 million on Sano if he wasn't just 16 at the time because an older player would be less likely to grow more, get stronger, and develop his game than a 16 year old would be expected to. That risk is essentially gone, because Sano has done all of those things. He's grown, gotten stronger and while he may never be a gold glove defender, all reports are that he has developed in several aspects of his game. In other words, there's been no indication that he has begun to "peak" the way he might have if he had been significantly understating his age. Sano is the real deal. He'll be the next superstar in a Twins uniform. Anyone ripping on him right now is simply not interested in anything but taking cheap shots at Sano or the Twins organization or both.
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#24 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 04:35 PM

Ok, I guess I can see why it doesn't matter so much. I certainly don't want to continue the conversation along those lines to feed the stupid speculation anyway. And clearly his growth points to being a growing young man as opposed to 20+. If he's in the majors at 22, that will be exciting. Maybe even a September call-up in 2014.

#25 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 11:55 PM

I also think that I did a pretty good job discussing prospect list movement between 2011 and 2012 in my last blog. Conclusion is that lefty starters, righty relievers (power arms), catchers, and 3rd basemen are needed first and foremost in the system, and the 2011 draft may have addressed some of that already (but the playing time sample from many of them is non-existent or very limited). Hudson Boyd as a closer down the road around 2015 is not out of the question. I do think the Twins need to find a way to sign a top-25 starter to be their number 1, and the minor league system can produce the rest of the rotation.

#26 twinswon1991

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 06:22 AM

The Twins should be ranked lower than 22. Their top pitching prospect (Liam) only has #4 starter upside, how pathetic is that!!! The twins will never win a playoff game until they develop some high upside starters. You can sign veteran free agents for league minimum salary who are better than Liaam at his peak so why bother drafting these soft tossing BUMS?

#27 Shane Wahl

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 12:38 PM

Hendriks has #2 upside and is most likely a #3. Gibson, Wimmers, and Salcedo all could be 1/2 starters.

#28 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 02:00 PM

Hendriks has #2 upside and is most likely a #3. Gibson, Wimmers, and Salcedo all could be 1/2 starters.


I think you're a little optimistic there... I think more realistically Hendricks has #3 starter upside but is more of a #4 on a contending team. Gibson is a 2/3, Wimmers is a 3/4, Salcedo is a 4/5 Nick Blackburn type unless he can figure out how to strike a few more people out.

#29 jtrinaldi

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 02:06 PM

Sacledo can become a 1 or 2 We have not seen enough of him to make a judgement of how good he could actually be.
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#30 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 02:16 PM

Sacledo can become a 1 or 2 We have not seen enough of him to make a judgement of how good he could actually be.


I don't have it in front of me but Baseball America classifies number one starters as possessing three or more dominant pitches, plus durability and plus makeup or something along those lines. Salcedo seems to have the makings of the plus durability and makeup from every report I've read. At this point he doesn't have even a single dominant pitch, the fastball velocity and command haven't come around as hoped, the change up is pretty average and his breaking ball is far from reliable much less dominant. He's young enough to improve quite a bit but it seems pretty unlikely he'd be able to vault himself into number one or number two status.